Flood Forecasting and Warning Program

Information about the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program, which prepares provincial and local authorities in the event of a flood.



Current flood information

November 22, 2014 - 11:30 am

Updated - Provincial Flood Watch Issued for Ontario by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry on November 22, 2014 at 11:30am


Local flood messages

 

MNR Districts

  • North Bay - Flood Watch - November 21, 2014
  • Parry Sound - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - November 21, 2014 4:00 pm
  • Sault Ste Marie - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - November 21, 2014

Conservation Authorities

  • Ausable Bayfield - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - November 21, 2014 11:00 am
  • Cataraqui Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - November 21, 2014
  • Catfish Creek - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - November 21, 2014 2:00 pm
  • Central Lake Ontario - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - November 21, 2014 1:30 pm
  • Credit Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - November 22, 2014 10:10 am
  • Essex Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - November 21, 2014 2:00 pm
  • Ganaraska Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - November 21, 2014 11:30 am
  • Kawartha - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - November 21, 2014 12:00 pm
  • Kettle Creek - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - November 21, 2014
  • Lake Simcoe Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - November 21, 2014 11:30 am
  • Long Point Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - November 21, 2014 2:00 pm
  • Lower Thames Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - November 21, 2014 2:00 pm
  • North Bay Mattawa - Flood Watch - November 21, 2014
  • Nottawasaga Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - November 21, 2014 3:00 pm
  • Otonabee - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - November 21, 2014 9:30 am
  • Sault Ste Marie Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - November 21, 2014 3:30 pm
  • Upper Thames River - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - November 21, 2014 1:00 pm

Provincial flood messages

 

MNR Districts

Algonquin Park, Aurora, Aylmer, Bancroft, Chapleau, Cochrane, Dryden, Fort Frances, Guelph, Hearst, Kemptville, Kenora, Kirkland Lake, Midhurst, Nipigon, North Bay, Parry Sound, Pembroke, Peterborough, Red Lake, Sault Ste Marie, Sioux Lookout, Sudbury, Thunder Bay, Timmins, Wawa

Conservation Authorities

Ausable Bayfield, Cataraqui Region, Catfish Creek, Central Lake Ontario, Credit Valley, Crowe Valley, Essex Region, Ganaraska Region, Grand River, Grey Sauble, Halton, Hamilton, Kawartha, Kettle Creek, Lake Simcoe Region, Lakehead Region, Long Point Region, Lower Thames Valley, Lower Trent, Maitland Valley, Mattagami Region, Mississippi Valley, Niagara Peninsula, Nickel District, North Bay Mattawa, Nottawasaga Valley, Otonabee, Quinte, Raisin Region, Rideau Valley, Saugeen, Sault Ste Marie Region, South Nation, St. Clair Region, Toronto and Region, Upper Thames River

Weather Situation

 

A low pressure system moving across the Canadian Prairie Provinces today will collide with a developing storm system moving up the Mississippi River and develop a large system over the province by Sunday night into Monday. This storm will bring several different high impact weather risks to various parts of the province from Sunday night into Tuesday morning. This system will quickly exit the province by Tuesday and much colder than normal temperatures return to the province.

 

On Sunday southern Ontario will see moderate south winds sustained near 20km/h gusting 30-40km/h. Temperatures will start the day above freezing and climb to near +10c during the afternoon. There is the slight risk of a shower through the day but the main rainfall event does not arrive until after dark into Monday morning. Sunday overnight into Monday morning will see the heaviest band of rainfall move across Southern Ontario. By the afternoon, rain will taper to showers and then end in the evening hours. 15-25mm is expected with the higher amounts likely along the #401 corridor and east of Georgian Bay. Winds will become southwest through the day and build to sustained speeds of 30km/h with gusts over 60km/h. Temperatures will be above 10 degrees on Monday with values in the low teens for locations along the north shores of Lakes Erie, Ontario and the St. Lawrence River. Winds shift to the west by early Tuesday and then temperatures drop back below freezing by Tuesday night.

 

For Northeastern Ontario, the low pressure system will track from the North Channel of Lake Huron towards northern Quebec during Monday. Rain is expected to start late Sunday afternoon and intensify into the overnight period. The rain snow boundary will lie along a line from Lake Nipigon to James Bay. Along this boundary there is a risk of 10-20mm of freezing rain – Geraldton, Hearst and Moosonee are all at risk for this freezing rain late Sunday into Monday. The areas further south will taper off a bit Monday afternoon but could redevelop in the evening hours. 20-35mm is expected from Sunday night into Monday evening with the highest amounts along the eastern shore of Lake Superior and along the North Shore of Lake Huron between Sault Ste. Marie and Sudbury. Late Monday evening colder air moves into northeastern Ontario and turn rain back into snow with 5-10cm possible by Tuesday morning as temperatures drop well below freezing. Winds over Lakes Huron and Superior will be strong on Monday with sustained winds near 60km/h possible gusting towards 100km/h. Areas further inland, away from open water, will see winds out of the south on Sunday and Monday at 20-30km/h gusting 30-40km/h. Winds become northwest late Monday night as the cold air arrives.

 

Northwestern Ontario will see mainly a snow event. Areas from Red Lake to Landsdowne House could see over 15cm of snow but most locations will see much less. Winds will be light and east on Sunday, becoming northerly and stronger on Monday as they will be sustained near 25km/h gusting towards 50km/h. These winds, combined with the cold air that remains in place over the event, will bring wind chills below -20c by Monday. Areas around Lake Superior from Thunder Bay to Marathon could see some heavy mixed precipitation. Any snowfall in that region will be wet and heavy and could quickly build to warning levels, dependant on where the snow/rain transition occurs.

 

 

Risks

 

Northern portions of southern Ontario and into much of the northeast experienced a particularly wet fall, with some areas still experiencing above normal water levels and flows.

 

Temperatures will be above freezing during the day and overnight from roughly Saturday afternoon to Tuesday for almost all of southern and northeastern Ontario. Copious amounts of fresh snow across much of the region will provide some buffer to the expected rainfall/runoff, however, the warmer temperatures combined with forecast rain is likely to result in melting of significant portions of the local snow pack.

 

Already high water levels combined with rainfall/snowmelt will likely result in flooding. Areas that haven’t benefited from lake effect snow, can expect to see less snow pack buffering and a rapid response to the forecast rainfall.

 

As a result of sustained strong winds across much of the Great Lakes region shoreline flooding may also be expected. Over the next couple of days, wave heights along the shorelines of Lake Erie, Huron and Superior may approach 2 metres or more.

 

A close watch on local forecasts and conditions is recommended.

 

This message will be in effect until (or updated before) Monday November 24, 12:00pm

 

 


Provincial flood messages

There are 2 types of provincial flood messages:

  • the Provincial Flood Watch, which provides consistent and timely technical information about the potential for flooding
  • the Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement, which provides information on provincial watershed conditions as they relate to flood potential, and an outlook on expected spring flood conditions

Local flood messages

There are 3 types of local flood messages:

  • flood warning: flooding is imminent or already occurring
  • flood watch: there is the potential for flooding
  • watershed conditions statements: flood Outlook (an early notice of the potential for flooding based on heavy rain, snow melt etc.) and water safety information.

Who to contact for flood information

Your local conservation authority is responsible for local flood messaging.

Your local municipality is responsible for on-the-ground flood response.

If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood watches or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest Ministry of Natural Resources district office.

 

Hidden content
Updated: October 21, 2014