Flood Forecasting and Warning Program

Information about the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program, which prepares provincial and local authorities in the event of a flood.



Current flood information

April 17, 2015 - 9:00 am

Provincial Flood Watch Issue for Southern, Northeastern and Northwestern Ontario by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry on April 17th, 2015 at 1:30 PM


Local flood messages

 

MNR Districts

  • Bancroft - Flood Watch - York River Watershed - April 15, 2015
  • Cochrane - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 9, 2015 2:00 pm
  • Parry Sound - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - April 15, 2015
  • Sault Ste Marie - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 15, 2015 8:30 pm

Conservation Authorities

  • Crowe Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 7, 2015 12:00 pm
  • Hamilton - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - April 14, 2015 11:40 am
  • Lakehead Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 17, 2015 2:30 pm
  • Mattagami Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - April 14, 2015 2:00 pm
  • Nickel District - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 15, 2015
  • North Bay Mattawa - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 9, 2015 12:00 pm

Provincial flood messages

 

MNR Districts

Algonquin Park, Bancroft, Chapleau, Cochrane, Dryden, Fort Frances, Hearst, Kemptville, Kenora, Kirkland Lake, Midhurst, Nipigon, North Bay, Parry Sound, Pembroke, Red Lake, Sault Ste Marie, Sioux Lookout, Sudbury, Thunder Bay, Timmins, Wawa

Conservation Authorities

Lakehead Region, Mattagami Region, Nickel District, North Bay Mattawa, Sault Ste Marie Region

Weather Situation

 

A developing system will be approaching the Minnesota-Ontario border on Sunday, bringing a pulse of rain. This is following a significant period of warmer than normal days, including today and Saturday. The system is expected to track through Thunder Bay, Geraldton and then continue northeastward up to Moosonee on Monday and into Tuesday, though there is some uncertainty of the exact track and speed at this time.

 

Rainfall from the system is expect to fall over the entire Northwest Region on Sunday, with amounts varying from 20 – 25 mm around Thunder Bay and Lake Nipigon, to 10-15 mm elsewhere in the Region. Rain is also expected to fall on Sunday over Northeast and Southern Regions, but with accumulations of less than 5mm.

 

As the system tracks through to Moosonee and further north and east on Monday, wrap-around clouds will continue to bring heavier showers and snow flurries in the far Northwest: at Fort Severn, Sandy Lake and Lansdowne House . Elsewhere in the Northwest and Northeast Regions, rainfall amounts are expected to be 10 mm or less. A secondary warm front is expected to bring warmer, moister air into Southern and Eastern Ontario on Monday, where heavier showers and rain are expected to concentrate over the Niagara Peninsula and east of Trenton to Pembroke; with these areas potentially receiving 15 mm. There is also a risk of thunderstorms over these areas on Monday, though the severity of these thunderstorms is not known at this time.

 

Tuesday should see a mix of sun and clouds for most of the province, with a return to cooler, more seasonable temperatures.

 

Risks

 

Snow pack remnants in South-central Ontario will continue to contribute runoff to streams and watercourses, which remain moderately elevated. The expected rainfall is not expected to significantly increase levels and flows over this area.

 

Significant and continuing snowmelt is expected to continue through the Northeast Region, and through those areas of the Northwest with remaining snow on ground through the weekend and into next week. Areas that are expected to receive higher rain amounts, such as the Thunder Bay and Nipigon Districts, and Lakehead Region CA, should also experience higher and more marked river response to elevated snowmelt and runoff.

 

Rivers and streams will continue their seasonal increase in levels and flows as the spring melt continues northward and moderate risks of ice jam formation exist, due to the heavy ice cover that formed through the winter. There have already been reports of flooding that is impacting travel along some provincial highways and local roads in the Northeast Region.

 

A close watch on local forecasts and conditions is recommended, especially since the exact track and speed of this weather system is not known.

 


Provincial flood messages

There are 2 types of provincial flood messages:

  • the Provincial Flood Watch, which provides consistent and timely technical information about the potential for flooding
  • the Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement, which provides information on provincial watershed conditions as they relate to flood potential, and an outlook on expected spring flood conditions

Local flood messages

There are 3 types of local flood messages:

  • flood warning: flooding is imminent or already occurring
  • flood watch: there is the potential for flooding
  • watershed conditions statements: flood Outlook (an early notice of the potential for flooding based on heavy rain, snow melt etc.) and water safety information.

Who to contact for flood information

Your local conservation authority is responsible for local flood messaging.

Your local municipality is responsible for on-the-ground flood response.

If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood watches or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest Ministry of Natural Resources district office.

 

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Updated: December 23, 2014