Flood Forecasting and Warning Program

Information about the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program, which prepares provincial and local authorities in the event of a flood.

Current flood information

Flood information updated as of: February 25, 2017 - 10:00 pm

Ontario flood map



Flood Watch for Southern and Northeastern Ontario Issued by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry Wednesday February 22nd, 2017 at 4:00 pm


Locally issued flood messages

Issued by MNRF Districts and Conservation Authorities

MNRF Districts

  • Bancroft - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - February 23, 2017
  • North Bay - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - February 24, 2017
  • Parry Sound - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety (Muskoka River Watershed) - February 23, 2017

    Conservation Authorities

    • Ausable Bayfield - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - February 24, 2017
    • Cataraqui Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - February 21, 2017
    • Credit Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - February 22, 2017
    • Crowe Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - February 24, 2017
    • Grand River - Flood Warning - February 24, 2017
    • Grey Sauble - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - February 24, 2017
    • Kawartha - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - February 23, 2017
    • Lake Simcoe Region - Flood Watch - February 24, 2017
    • Maitland Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - February 24, 2017
    • Mississippi Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - February 23, 2017
    • North Bay Mattawa - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - February 24, 2017
    • Nottawasaga Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - February 24, 2017
    • Rideau Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - February 23, 2017 11:30 am
    • Saugeen - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - February 24, 2017
    • Sault Ste Marie Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - February 22, 2017
    • South Nation - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - February 22, 2017
    • Toronto and Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - February 24, 2017
    • Upper Thames River - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - February 23, 2017

    River Regulatory Agencies

    None


    Provincial Message

    Issued to Local Authorities by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre

     

    MNRF Districts

    Algonquin Park, Aurora, Aylmer, Bancroft, Guelph, Kemptville, Midhurst, North Bay, Parry Sound, Pembroke, Peterborough, Sudbury

    Conservation Authorities

    Ausable Bayfield, Cataraqui Region, Catfish Creek, Central Lake Ontario, Credit Valley, Crowe Valley, Essex Region, Ganaraska Region, Grand River, Grey Sauble, Halton, Hamilton, Kawartha, Kettle Creek, Lake Simcoe Region, Long Point Region, Lower Thames Valley, Lower Trent, Maitland Valley, Mississippi Valley, Niagara Peninsula, Nickel District, North Bay Mattawa, Nottawasaga Valley, Otonabee, Raisin Region, Rideau Valley, Saugeen, South Nation, St. Clair Region, Toronto and Region, Upper Thames River

    Weather Situation

    On Friday an intensifying low pressure system is forecast to bring mixed precipitation across the Province. Areas centred on the Bruce Peninsula will see the highest amounts of precipitation, with up to 50mm of rain possible by Saturday morning. The east shore of Lake Huron, Parry Sound and the Muskoka’s are forecast to receive 25-40mm by Saturday morning. Thunderstorms are also possible along the shores of Lake Erie and Ontario. Daytime and overnight temperatures are currently forecast to be above 0 ᴼC south of the Manitoulin Island and below 0 ᴼC north of the Island. On Saturday, a cold front associated with the system will sweep through Southeastern Ontario producing up to 15-25mm of rain in its vicinity. By Sunday, patches of clouds and scattered flurries will prevail. The temperatures will drop to near seasonal values province wide.

    Risks

    Flows and levels across Southern and Central Ontario are at moderate levels and are rising as a result of recent warm temperatures and rainfall. Continued snowmelt and runoff due to forecast warm temperatures and rainfall will result in flows and levels continuing to rise. Increasing flows and levels may result in river ice break-up and increase flood risk in areas prone to ice jamming. Substantial snowpack remains across much of the Province north of Lake Simcoe. Recent warm temperatures and rainfall has resulted in saturated snowpack that is ready to release water content. Many areas that are free of snowpack are largely saturated and will readily produce runoff. Combined runoff from the rainfall and snowmelt as well as ice breakup may cause ponding and potential for flooding in low lying areas. The return to normal temperatures early next week will slow melt and attenuate runoff.

    A close watch on water levels and flows and local weather conditions is recommended.


    Flood Message Definitions

    Provincial flood messages

    There are 2 types of provincial flood messages:

    • the Provincial Flood Watch, which provides consistent and timely technical information about the potential for flooding
    • the Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement, which provides information on provincial watershed conditions as they relate to flood potential, and an outlook on expected spring flood conditions

    Local flood messages

    There are 3 types of local flood messages:

    • flood warning: flooding is imminent or already occurring
    • flood watch: there is the potential for flooding
    • watershed conditions statements: flood Outlook (an early notice of the potential for flooding based on heavy rain, snow melt etc.) and water safety information.

    Who to contact for flood information

    Your local Conservation Authority is responsible for local flood messaging.

    Your local municipality is responsible for on-the-ground flood response.

    If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood watches or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry district office.

     

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    Updated: August 19, 2016