Flood Forecasting and Warning Program

Information about the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program, which prepares provincial and local authorities in the event of a flood.

Special Lake Ontario Flood Watch

Special Lake Ontario Flood Watch Issued By Ministry of Natural Resources' Surface Water Monitoring Centre for May 31st, 2017

Current flood information

Flood information updated as of: August 16, 2017 - 11:00 am

Ontario flood map



Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement for the Province of Ontario Issued by Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry Wednesday August 16, 2017 at 11:00 AM


Locally issued flood messages

Issued by MNRF Districts and Conservation Authorities

MNRF Districts

None

    Conservation Authorities

    • Cataraqui Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - August 15, 2017
    • Central Lake Ontario - Flood Watch -Lake Ontario Shoreline - August 11, 2017
    • Credit Valley - Lake Ontario Flood Watch - July14 - August 2, 2017 12:30 pm
    • Ganaraska Region - Flood Watch - Lake Ontario - June 20, 2017
    • Hamilton - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - July 31, 2017
    • Lower Trent - Flood Warning Update for Lake Ontario/Bay of Quinte - July 14, 2017 2:00 pm
    • Quinte - Flood Warning - August 8, 2017
    • South Nation - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - August 2, 2017 12:00 pm
    • Toronto and Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Lake Ontario - August 3, 2017 2:00 pm

    River Regulatory Agencies


    Provincial Message

    Issued to Local Authorities by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre

     

    MNRF Districts

    Bancroft, Chapleau, Cochrane, Dryden, Fort Frances, Hearst, Kemptville, Kenora, Kirkland Lake, Nipigon, North Bay, Parry Sound, Pembroke, Peterborough, Red Lake, Sault Ste Marie, Sioux Lookout, Sudbury, Thunder Bay, Timmins, Wawa

    Conservation Authorities

    Cataraqui Region, Lakehead Region, Mattagami Region, Mississippi Valley, Nickel District, North Bay Mattawa, Raisin Region, Rideau Valley, Sault Ste Marie Region, South Nation

    Weather Situation

    A strengthening low pressure currently developing out of the US-Midwest is taking aim for Lake Superior and to the region east of the Lake starting tomorrow (Thursday). It will move east-northeast into the province and its effect is likely to last until Saturday. Rain and thunderstorms will start pushing in overnight Wednesday into Thursday to this region with bulk of rain forecast for Thursday and lingering rain on Friday.

    Currently, 15 to 20 mm rainfall is forecast for Fort Frances/ Rainy River Watershed today (Wednesday). Locally the numbers could be higher due to risk of Thunderstorms which could add another 20 mm of rainfall to this total.

    For Thursday, 20 to 40 mm of widespread rainfall is forecast for Thunder Bay, Wawa and Sault Ste Marie Region. There is an additional risk of higher rainfall amounts locally to areas north and east of Lake Superior which could add another 50+ mm locally to the rainfall totals above.

    On Friday, rainfall in the amount of 20 to 30 mm is forecast for most areas between Wawa to James Bay coast including areas to the east of Georgian Bay. Additional rainfall locally due to thunderstorms is possible in this region. 20 to 30 mm of rainfall is forecast for southeast Ontario with risk of additional amount due to thunderstorm on this day.

    Risks

    NOTE: Lake Ontario and Lake Erie levels continue to be elevated and are forecast to remain so for all of the month of August. See our Special Lake Ontario Flood Watch for more information at www.ontario.ca/flooding.

    Stream flow and levels are moderately high in streams in the region due to recent rainfall. Recent rainfall and active weather in the region have reduced the capacity of soils to store additional water and thus can produce runoff more readily resulting in high water and flooding conditions locally in a short time. Forecast rainfall associated with this low pressure system has the potential to cause increased runoff and result in localized flooding anywhere in the forecast region especially to areas to the north and east of Lake Superior.

    There is some variability in terms of the track and timing of this event. The message will be updated if there are significant deviations from current forecast. A close watch on meteorological conditions, including thunderstorm alerts, is recommended.

    This message will be in effect until (or updated before) Friday August 18, 2017 at 5 PM.


    Flood Message Definitions

    Provincial flood messages

    There are 2 types of provincial flood messages:

    • the Provincial Flood Watch, which provides consistent and timely technical information about the potential for flooding
    • the Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement, which provides information on provincial watershed conditions as they relate to flood potential, and an outlook on expected spring flood conditions

    Local flood messages

    There are 3 types of local flood messages:

    • flood warning: flooding is imminent or already occurring
    • flood watch: there is the potential for flooding
    • watershed conditions statements: flood Outlook (an early notice of the potential for flooding based on heavy rain, snow melt etc.) and water safety information.

    Who to contact for flood information

    Your local Conservation Authority is responsible for local flood messaging.

    Your local municipality is responsible for on-the-ground flood response.

    If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood watches or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry district office.

     

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    Updated: August 19, 2016