Flood Forecasting and Warning Program

Information about the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program, which prepares provincial and local authorities in the event of a flood.

Current flood information

Flood information updated as of: July 16, 2018 - 3:00 pm

Ontario flood map

Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement Issued for Southern Ontario by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry on Monday July 16, 2018 at 3:00 PM.

Locally issued flood messages

Issued by MNRF Districts and Conservation Authorities

MNRF Districts


Conservation Authorities

River Regulatory Agencies


Provincial Message

Issued to Local Authorities by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre


MNRF Districts

Aurora, Aylmer, Bancroft, Guelph, Midhurst, Peterborough

Conservation Authorities

Ausable Bayfield, Central Lake Ontario, Credit Valley, Essex Region, Ganaraska Region, Grand River, Halton Region, Hamilton Region, Lake Simcoe Region, Nottawasaga Valley, St. Clair Region, Toronto and Region, Upper Thames River

Weather Situation

Today, (July 16th ) Thunderstorms are currently occurring ahead of an approaching cold front and are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts may reach 50-100 mm in some isolated locations by late this evening.

Egbert has reported 20 mm in one-hour as of 12 noon today. Radar estimates indicate that 30-40 mm of rain may have already fallen in some locations from the eastern shores of Lake Huron and eastward toward Lake Simcoe.

Above-normal moisture content in the atmosphere as a result of a warm, moist air mass is positioned over Southern Ontario. Training thunderstorms (multiple storms impacting the same areas in succession) may give way to local rainfall amounts of 50-100 mm by this evening.

Thunderstorm activity tapers from west to east this evening as the cold front passes through later tonight.


Streamflows and levels across most of the forecast area are within normal range. Should the forecast thunderstorms materialize some localized flooding of low lying areas may occur.

A close watch on updated forecasts, meteorological conditions and river flows is recommended.

This message will remain in effect until 1 pm, Tuesday July 17, 2018 unless updated earlier.

Flood Message Definitions

Provincial flood messages

There are 2 types of provincial flood messages:

  • the Provincial Flood Watch, which provides consistent and timely technical information about the potential for flooding
  • the Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement, which provides information on provincial watershed conditions as they relate to flood potential, and an outlook on expected spring flood conditions

Local flood messages

There are 3 types of local flood messages:

  • flood warning: flooding is imminent or already occurring
  • flood watch: there is the potential for flooding
  • watershed conditions statements: flood Outlook (an early notice of the potential for flooding based on heavy rain, snow melt etc.) and water safety information.

Who to contact for flood information

Your local Conservation Authority is responsible for local flood messaging.

Your local municipality is responsible for on-the-ground flood response.

If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood watches or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry district office.


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Updated: June 28, 2018