Flood Forecasting and Warning Program

Information about the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program, which prepares provincial and local authorities in the event of a flood.

Special Lake Ontario Flood Watch

Special Lake Ontario Flood Watch Issued By Ministry of Natural Resources' Surface Water Monitoring Centre for May 31st, 2017

Current flood information

Flood information updated as of: June 24, 2017 - 9:30 pm

Ontario flood map



Provincial Flood Watch for Southern Ontario Issued by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry Friday June 23, 2017 at 11:45 AM


Locally issued flood messages

Issued by MNRF Districts and Conservation Authorities

MNRF Districts

None

    Conservation Authorities

    • Cataraqui Region - Flood Warning - Lake Ontario - June 15, 2017
    • Central Lake Ontario - Flood Warning - Potential Flood Conditions / Lake Ontario Shoreline - May 26, 2017 9:30 am
    • Credit Valley - FLOOD WATCH Message #2 - June 24, 2017 3:30 pm
    • Essex Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - June 23, 2017 10:40 am
    • Grand River - Flood Message #5 - Flood Warning / Flood Watch - June 24, 2017 10:00 am
    • Halton - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - June 23, 2017 11:30 am
    • Hamilton - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - June 7, 2017 2:10 pm
    • Kawartha - Flood Watch - June 23, 2017 10:00 am
    • Lake Simcoe Region - Flood Watch - June 23, 2017 9:10 am
    • Lower Trent - Flood Warning Update - Lake Ontario / Bay of Quinte - June 16, 2017
    • Maitland Valley - Flood Warning Updates - Lower Maitland River / North Maitland and Little Maitland River Watersheds - June 24, 2017 9:00 pm
    • Quinte - Flood Warning - Lake Ontario / Bay of Quinte - June 8, 2017 9:00 am
    • South Nation - FLOOD WATCH: ST. LAWRENCE RIVER – UPDATE #7 - June 22, 2017
    • Toronto and Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - June 23, 2017 7:10 pm

    River Regulatory Agencies


    Provincial Message

    Issued to Local Authorities by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre

     

    MNRF Districts

    Aurora, Guelph, Midhurst, Peterborough

    Conservation Authorities

    Central Lake Ontario, Credit Valley, Ganaraska Region, Grand River, Lake Simcoe Region, Maitland Valley, Nottawasaga Valley, Saugeen

    MNRF Southern Region

    Stream flow conditions following Thurday night and Friday morning's storm path, from Goderich, through Elora, towards Newmarket are high or above flood critical. Additional heavy rains from Niagara through the GTA and Kingston added an additional 20-35mm of rainfall yesterday. Saturday's forecast calls for 0-5mm across southern Ontario, with convective amounts for possibly 5-10mm. No significant amounts are forecast for the rest of the 5-day forecast. However south west Ontario is forecast to recieve 10-15mm per day over he next 4 days.

    MNRF Northeastern Region

    Stream flow conditions across the Northeastern Region are within the seasonal range. Forecast precipitation for the region ranges from 10 to 15 mm over the next five days. Convective activity may produce additional 5-10mm locally.

    MNRF Northwestern Region

    Stream flow conditions across the Northwestern Region are within the seasonal range. Forecast precipitation for the region ranges from 35 to 50 mm over the next five days. Convective activity may produce additional 5-10mm locally.

    Weather Situation

    Southern Ontario has received heavy rainfall in the last 36 hours. In some areas on the storm track (generally from Goderich to Newmarket) Maitland, Saugeen, Grand River Valley, Credit Valley, and Nottawasaga Valley, and Prince Edward County have received over 100mm locally. More broadly 25-50mm has fallen.

    Southern Ontario’s weekend rainfall forecast of up to 10-15mm, with embedded thunderstorms (adding potential for 5-15mm more locally) is forecast along yesterday’s storm track. The longer range forecast, for Monday and Tuesday, call for 20-40mm rain across southwestern Ontario and southern parts of Georgian Bay.

    Southern Ontario rainfall forecast of up to 10-15mm, with embedded thunderstorms (adding potential for 5-15mm more locally) is forecast along last night’s southern Ontario storm track, this afternoon (Friday June 23) and into this evening. The forecast rainfall will continue to follow the movement of a cold front across eastern Ontario this afternoon.

    The rainfall is forecast to taper off overnight with 1-2mm forecast across southern Ontario tomorrow.

    Risks

    NOTE: Lake Ontario and Lake Erie levels continue to be elevated and are forecast to remain so for all of the month of May. See our Special Lake Ontario Flood Watch for more information at www.ontario.ca/flooding.

    Recent heavy rainfall received across parts of southern Ontario has saturated soils and elevated water levels and streamflow. Local flooding has been reported or forecast following the storm track. Additional rainfall today may exacerbate existing conditions locally. Locally, flood coordinators have been advised or activated in many flood prone areas.

    Water levels and flows are 75% to over flood limits on several rivers and streams along the storm track and local flooding is imminent or occurring. Reported risks include potential dam failures, road closures and washouts, evacuations of flood prone areas, high and fast moving waters. Close attention should be paid to local flood conditions reports from conservation authorities and municipalities, and as always, a close watch on meteorological conditions, including thunderstorm alerts, is recommended.

    This message will be in effect until (or updated before) Monday June 26, 2017 at 5:00 pm.


    Flood Message Definitions

    Provincial flood messages

    There are 2 types of provincial flood messages:

    • the Provincial Flood Watch, which provides consistent and timely technical information about the potential for flooding
    • the Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement, which provides information on provincial watershed conditions as they relate to flood potential, and an outlook on expected spring flood conditions

    Local flood messages

    There are 3 types of local flood messages:

    • flood warning: flooding is imminent or already occurring
    • flood watch: there is the potential for flooding
    • watershed conditions statements: flood Outlook (an early notice of the potential for flooding based on heavy rain, snow melt etc.) and water safety information.

    Who to contact for flood information

    Your local Conservation Authority is responsible for local flood messaging.

    Your local municipality is responsible for on-the-ground flood response.

    If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood watches or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry district office.

     

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    Updated: August 19, 2016