Flood Forecasting and Warning Program

Information about the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program, which prepares provincial and local authorities in the event of a flood.

Current flood information

Flood information updated as of: February 20, 2018 - 11:30 am

Ontario flood map

Provincial Flood Watch for Southern Ontario issued by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry on Tuesday, February 20, 2018 at 11:00 AM

Locally issued flood messages

Issued by MNRF Districts and Conservation Authorities

MNRF Districts

  • Bancroft - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - February 19, 2018 10:00 am

Conservation Authorities

River Regulatory Agencies

Provincial Message

Issued to Local Authorities by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre


MNRF Districts

Algonquin Park, Aurora, Aylmer, Bancroft, Guelph, Kemptville, Midhurst, North Bay, Parry Sound, Pembroke, Peterborough

Conservation Authorities

Ausable Bayfield, Cataraqui Region, Catfish Creek, Central Lake Ontario, Credit Valley, Crowe Valley, Essex Region, Ganaraska Region, Grand River, Grey Sauble, Halton Region, Hamilton Region, Kawartha Region, Kettle Creek, Lake Simcoe Region, Long Point Region, Lower Thames Valley, Lower Trent, Maitland Valley, Mississippi Valley, Niagara Peninsula, North Bay Mattawa, Nottawasaga Valley, Otonabee Region, Quinte, Raisin Region, Rideau Valley, Saugeen Valley, South Nation River, St. Clair Region, Toronto and Region, Upper Thames River

Weather Situation

Over the past 24 hours, Southern Ontario has received 10-50 mm of rain. The highest amounts fell on a track from Kincardine to Barrie. Today (Tuesday, February 20, 2018), rainfall in Southern Ontario is forecast in the 15-35 mm range. The highest amounts are expected along a track from Sarnia to Gravenhurst.

Thunderstorms are also possible to the southwest of a line from North Bay to Trenton. Where thunderstorms develop, an additional 5-10 mm can be expected. Total accumulated rainfall amounts could be in the 20-45 mm range.

Temperatures are expected to be well above freezing throughout the day and overnight tonight. Tomorrow (Wednesday, February 21, 2018), the rain is expected to taper off as the weather system exits the province to the east. Forecast rain is in the 2-10 mm range before the temperature drops in the afternoon and evening.


Flooding is already occurring in Southwestern Ontario. Stream levels and flows across Southern Ontario are elevated from yesterday’s rainfall, combined with run off from the melting snowpack. Forecast rainfall and associated snowmelt today will continue to produce high water levels and flooding.

Ice breakup due to increased stream flows is expected, along with the potential for ice jam formation and related flooding on some rivers.

A close watch on meteorological conditions, river levels and flows, and ice jam prone areas is recommended.

This message will be in effect until (or updated before) Thursday, February 22 at 9:00 am.

Flood Message Definitions

Provincial flood messages

There are 2 types of provincial flood messages:

  • the Provincial Flood Watch, which provides consistent and timely technical information about the potential for flooding
  • the Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement, which provides information on provincial watershed conditions as they relate to flood potential, and an outlook on expected spring flood conditions

Local flood messages

There are 3 types of local flood messages:

  • flood warning: flooding is imminent or already occurring
  • flood watch: there is the potential for flooding
  • watershed conditions statements: flood Outlook (an early notice of the potential for flooding based on heavy rain, snow melt etc.) and water safety information.

Who to contact for flood information

Your local Conservation Authority is responsible for local flood messaging.

Your local municipality is responsible for on-the-ground flood response.

If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood watches or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry district office.


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Updated: January 31, 2018