Flood Forecasting and Warning Program

Information about the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program, which prepares provincial and local authorities in the event of a flood.

Current flood information

Flood information updated as of: January 20, 2018 - 9:30 am

Ontario flood map


Provincial Flood Watch for Southern Ontario issued by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry on Friday, January 19, 2018 at 2:00 PM


Locally issued flood messages

Issued by MNRF Districts and Conservation Authorities

MNRF Districts

None

Conservation Authorities

  • Cataraqui Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - January 18, 2018 1:00 pm
  • Credit Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - January 19, 2018 4:00 am
  • Essex Region - -
  • Kettle Creek - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - January 19, 2018 9:00 am
  • Lake Simcoe Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - January 19, 2018 3:20 pm
  • Lower Thames Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - January 17, 2018 4:40 pm
  • Lower Trent - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - January 19, 2018 3:10 pm
  • Nottawasaga Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - January 19, 2018 3:30 pm
  • Quinte - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - January 15, 2018 4:20 pm
  • Rideau Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - January 18, 2018 3:00 pm

River Regulatory Agencies

None


Provincial Message

Issued to Local Authorities by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre

 

MNRF Districts

Kenora

Conservation Authorities

None

Weather Situation

Temperatures in southern Ontario are expected to rise to freezing or above for both Saturday and Sunday, to be followed by an intense, fast moving weather system which is expected to move into southern Ontario late Sunday January 21, bringing showers and periods of rain overnight and on Monday. The system is expected to move out of Ontario and into Quebec overnight Monday and into Tuesday.

These periods of rain could become heavy at times particularly if the system develops any support from the lower USA and Gulf of Mexico. There is possibility of embedded cells of higher intensity rainfall or thunderstorms.

Track of the low pressure system is currently expected to pass through the north channel of Lake Huron, and areas from Sault Ste Marie to North Bay could see moderate or heavy snow from this system, but areas to the south of the French River should see mostly liquid precipitation.

Twenty – 30 mm is currently expected in southwestern Ontario, across the GTA, and north to Barrie.

Areas east of Georgian Bay and Lake Simcoe eastward to Prince Edward County and Bancroft could see 30- 40 mm of rain.

Areas east of a line from Lake Nipissing to Prince Edward County, including the Ottawa Valley, could see accumulations up to 50 mm before the system moves out on Tuesday.

Moderate winds will accompany the system as it moves through… with strong easterly winds developing on Monday before they swing back to a seasonal westerly and northwesterly direction, bringing colder, seasonal air masses into southern Ontario later on Tuesday, which will drop temperatures back below freezing.

Risks

Stream flow and levels are moderately elevated in central and southern Ontario from previous rainfall / snow melt, particularly in the larger river systems. Ice cover that was compromised or broken has had little opportunity to reform or strengthen.

Forecast cumulative rainfall with the additional melting of snow pack has the potential to cause elevated water levels combined with minor flooding conditions.

Ice breakup and associated ice jams may occur.

A close watch on meteorological conditions, including thunderstorm alerts, as well as river flows and ice-jam prone areas, is recommended.


Flood Message Definitions

Provincial flood messages

There are 2 types of provincial flood messages:

  • the Provincial Flood Watch, which provides consistent and timely technical information about the potential for flooding
  • the Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement, which provides information on provincial watershed conditions as they relate to flood potential, and an outlook on expected spring flood conditions

Local flood messages

There are 3 types of local flood messages:

  • flood warning: flooding is imminent or already occurring
  • flood watch: there is the potential for flooding
  • watershed conditions statements: flood Outlook (an early notice of the potential for flooding based on heavy rain, snow melt etc.) and water safety information.

Who to contact for flood information

Your local Conservation Authority is responsible for local flood messaging.

Your local municipality is responsible for on-the-ground flood response.

If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood watches or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry district office.

 

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Updated: August 19, 2016