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Flood Forecasting and Warning Program

Information about the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program, which prepares provincial and local authorities in the event of a flood.

Current flood information

Flood information updated as of: April 20, 2019 - 4:10 pm

Special Lake Erie (Eastern Basin) Flood Watch Issued By Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry's Surface Water Monitoring Centre for April 8, 2019

Ontario flood map


Provincial Flood Watch Issued for Ontario by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry on April 17, 2019 at 12:00 PM

Locally issued flood messages

Issued by MNRF Districts and Conservation Authorities

MNRF Districts

  • Bancroft - Flood Warning and Flood Watch - April 19, 2019 1:30 pm
  • Cochrane - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 17, 2019
  • Kemptville - Flood Warning - April 19, 2019
  • Midhurst - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 15, 2019 2:00 pm
  • North Bay - Flood Watch - April 17, 2019 3:30 pm
  • North Bay - Flood Warning - April 20, 2019 10:30 am
  • Parry Sound - Flood Warning - April 19, 2019
  • Pembroke - Flood Warning - April 20, 2019
  • Sudbury - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 18, 2019 3:00 pm

Conservation Authorities

River Regulatory Agencies

Provincial Message

Issued to Local Authorities by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre

 

MNRF Districts

Algonquin Park, Aurora, Aylmer, Bancroft, Chapleau, Cochrane, Guelph, Hearst, Kemptville, Kirkland Lake, Midhurst, Nipigon, North Bay, Parry Sound, Pembroke, Peterborough, Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, Thunder Bay, Timmins, Wawa

Conservation Authorities

Ausable Bayfield, Cataraqui Region, Catfish Creek, Central Lake Ontario, Credit Valley, Crowe Valley, Essex Region, Ganaraska Region, Grand River, Grey Sauble, Halton Region, Hamilton Region, Kawartha Region, Kettle Creek, Lake Simcoe Region, Long Point Region, Lower Thames Valley, Lower Trent, Maitland Valley, Mattagami Region, Mississippi Valley, Niagara Peninsula, Nickel District, North Bay Mattawa, Nottawasaga Valley, Otonabee Region, Quinte, Raisin Region, Rideau Valley, Saugeen Valley, Sault Ste. Marie Region, South Nation River, St. Clair Region, Toronto and Region, Upper Thames River

Weather Situation

A Colorado low merging with a Texas low is forecast to move in tonight (Wednesday evening) bringing significant precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, across the Province. The precipitation will begin Wednesday evening where 15 to 25 mm is forecast along the shores of the upper Great Lakes. The system is forecast to slide south on Thursday and drop 15 to 30 mm of rain across a large swath of central and southcentral Ontario. Rainfall is forecast to persist into Friday with 15 to 30 mm forecast across a large swath of southcentral, south and southeastern Ontario. The system is forecast to die out on Saturday but may still produce up to 20 mm in southwestern Ontario. Thunderstorms associated with this event are possible and may produce and additional 5 to 10 mm in isolated areas.

Totals across a broad swath of south and central Ontario in the range of 30 to 50 mm are forecast with higher amounts possible in isolated areas.

High winds associated with system in the range of 30 to 35 km/hr with stronger gusts up to 45 km/hr are forecast across the lower Great Lakes.

Daytime high temperatures are forecast in the 0 to 10 degrees Celsius range across most of the north of the Province over the next five days with forecasted highs in the 5 to 15 degree Celsius in the south. Night-time low temperatures are largely forecast to stay at or below 0 degrees Celsius in the northern part of the Province and remain at or above 0 degrees Celsius in the southern parts of the Province.

Mid-April snow surveys show a continuing snowpack in central and northeastern Ontario ranging from 100 to 200 mm of snow water equivalent in central Ontario and 100 to 250 mm in northeastern Ontario. These values are above average to well above average for this time of year.

Risks

Water levels and stream flows across southern and central Ontario are elevated from ongoing spring snow melt and past precipitation events.

The impact of recent warm temperatures and rainfall have compacted and ripened the significant snow pack reducing its ability to absorb rainfall. The forecast warm temperatures and precipitation are likely to further degrade the snowpack and river ice, produce significant runoff and further increase levels and flows.

Risks may include degradation of river ice and ice jam related flooding from increasing temperatures and flows, fast moving cold water with rapidly changing conditions, and flooding of low-lying areas.

The Ottawa River Regulating Committee forecast that flows are expected to exceed minor flood levels over the Easter Weekend. A close watch on local forecasts and conditions is recommended.

Flood Message Definitions

Provincial flood messages

There are 2 types of provincial flood messages:

  • the Provincial Flood Watch, which provides consistent and timely technical information about the potential for flooding
  • the Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement, which provides information on provincial watershed conditions as they relate to flood potential, and an outlook on expected spring flood conditions

Local flood messages

There are 3 types of local flood messages:

  • flood warning: flooding is imminent or already occurring
  • flood watch: there is the potential for flooding
  • watershed conditions statements: flood Outlook (an early notice of the potential for flooding based on heavy rain, snow melt etc.) and water safety information.

Who to contact for flood information

Your local Conservation Authority is responsible for local flood messaging.

Your local municipality is responsible for on-the-ground flood response.

If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood watches or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry district office.

 

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