Flood Forecasting and Warning Program

Information about the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program, which prepares provincial and local authorities in the event of a flood.

Special Lake Ontario Flood Watch

Special Lake Ontario Flood Watch Issued By Ministry of Natural Resources' Surface Water Monitoring Centre for May 1st, 2017

Current flood information

Flood information updated as of: May 28, 2017 - 11:00 am

Ontario flood map

UPDATED: Provincial Flood Watch for Southern and Northeast Ontario and Flood Watch due to Storm Surge in Lower Great Lakes Issued by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry Sunday May 28, 2017 at 11:00 AM

Locally issued flood messages

Issued by MNRF Districts and Conservation Authorities

MNRF Districts

  • Bancroft - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - May 23, 2017
  • Kemptville - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - May 25, 2017
  • Pembroke - Flood Warning - May 26, 2017

    Conservation Authorities

    • Cataraqui Region - Flood Warning- Lake Ontario and Water safety for lakes and Streams - May 26, 2017
    • Central Lake Ontario - Flood Warning - Lake Ontario Shoreline - May 26, 2017 9:30 am
    • Credit Valley - Flood Watch-Lake Ontario - May 28, 2017 1:00 pm
    • Ganaraska Region - Flood Warning - Lake Ontario - May 19, 2017
    • Grand River - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - May 26, 2017 12:00 pm
    • Hamilton - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - May 26, 2017 10:00 am
    • Lake Simcoe Region - Flood Warning - May 26, 2017 10:00 am
    • Lower Trent - Flood Warning -Lake Ontario and Safety Statement for Trent River - May 26, 2017
    • Mattagami Region - Flood Watch - May 26, 2017
    • Niagara Peninsula - Flood Watch - May 26, 2017
    • Otonabee - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - May 26, 2017
    • Quinte - Flood Warning - May 26, 2017
    • Rideau Valley - Flood Watch - May 26, 2017
    • South Nation - Flood Watch- St Lawrece River and Flood Outlook - Ottawa River - May 23, 2017 11:00 am

    River Regulatory Agencies

    Provincial Message

    Issued to Local Authorities by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre


    MNRF Districts

    Algonquin Park, Aurora, Aylmer, Bancroft, Cochrane, Guelph, Kemptville, Kirkland Lake, Midhurst, North Bay, Parry Sound, Pembroke, Peterborough, Sudbury, Timmins

    Conservation Authorities

    Cataraqui Region, Catfish Creek, Central Lake Ontario, Credit Valley, Crowe Valley, Essex Region, Ganaraska Region, Grand River, Halton, Hamilton, Kawartha, Kettle Creek, Lake Simcoe Region, Long Point Region, Lower Thames Valley, Lower Trent, Mattagami Region, Mississippi Valley, Niagara Peninsula, North Bay Mattawa, Otonabee, Quinte, Raisin Region, Rideau Valley, South Nation, St. Clair Region, Toronto and Region

    Weather Situation

    An upper level trough will continue to dominate much of the weather pattern in the province for the next few days (Sunday into Tuesday). The upper low will support a few low pressure systems across the province bringing unsettled weather. Scattered and lingering rainfall in the amounts of 10 to 15 mm is forecast for Sunday into Monday in the Lower Great Lakes Region and in the Northeast. Monday into Tuesday will see another 20 to 25 mm of rainfall for far Southeast Ontario and 10 to 20 mm for the Northeast.

    Winds are likely to be in the 10 to 20 km/h range for Lower Great Lakes Region, Sunday into Monday, initially from the southeast transitioning into southwest by Monday. Sustained wind speeds of 20 to 25 km/h from southwest are forecast for Monday for this region. Gust reaching 45 to 50 km/h are possible Monday.


    Lake Ontario and Lake Erie levels continue to be elevated and are forecast to remain so for all of the month of May. See our Special Lake Ontario Flood Watch for more information at www.ontario.ca/flooding.

    The forecast sustained winds across the Lower Great Lakes late Sunday into Monday and through Monday will result in surge and wave action on the shores of Lake Erie and Ontario that could worsen existing high water/flooding conditions that are currently being experienced in the region. Waves of 0.5 to 1 m height are possible due to this wind action on Lake Ontario.

    Water levels and flows in riverine systems across central and eastern Ontario remain elevated due to receding effects of the pretty stretched out spring freshet and recent rainfall, but have mostly peaked and are receding.

    Record or near record levels have been observed throughout the region, on many lakes and rivers. States of emergency still continues in several municipalities in the south.

    In interior lakes and rivers throughout most of south central and eastern Ontario, the forecasted amount of precipitation is not expected to have significant impacts on the decreasing flow and level trend. However where flows are still high, the forecast rainfall is likely to maintain existing flow conditions.

    Flows and levels are moderately high in the southern sectors of northeast due to spring freshet conditions. Forecast rainfall is not likely to cause additional flooding but where flows are already high it is likely to maintain existing flow conditions or slight increase during this event.

    Ice break-up is still ongoing on the Severn and Winisk Rivers in the Cochrane District. Levels and flows are rising on these rivers at this time.

    Close attention should be paid to local flood conditions reports from conservation authorities and municipalities, and as always, a close watch on meteorological conditions, including wind, is recommended.

    This message will be in effect until (or updated before) Tuesday 12, May 30th, 2017 at 12:00 Noon.

    Flood Message Definitions

    Provincial flood messages

    There are 2 types of provincial flood messages:

    • the Provincial Flood Watch, which provides consistent and timely technical information about the potential for flooding
    • the Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement, which provides information on provincial watershed conditions as they relate to flood potential, and an outlook on expected spring flood conditions

    Local flood messages

    There are 3 types of local flood messages:

    • flood warning: flooding is imminent or already occurring
    • flood watch: there is the potential for flooding
    • watershed conditions statements: flood Outlook (an early notice of the potential for flooding based on heavy rain, snow melt etc.) and water safety information.

    Who to contact for flood information

    Your local Conservation Authority is responsible for local flood messaging.

    Your local municipality is responsible for on-the-ground flood response.

    If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood watches or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry district office.


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    Updated: August 19, 2016