Flood Forecasting and Warning Program

Information about the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program, which prepares provincial and local authorities in the event of a flood.

Current flood information

Flood information updated as of: March 24, 2017 - 10:45 am

Ontario flood map

Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement for Southern Ontario Issued by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry Friday March 24th, 2017 at 10:30 am

Locally issued flood messages

Issued by MNRF Districts and Conservation Authorities

MNRF Districts

  • Parry Sound - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - March 20, 2017

    Conservation Authorities

    • Central Lake Ontario - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - March 23, 2017 11:00 am
    • Crowe Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - February 28, 2017 12:00 pm
    • Lake Simcoe Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - March 24, 2017 9:30 am
    • Lower Trent - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - March 9, 2017
    • Otonabee - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - March 22, 2017
    • Rideau Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - March 3, 2017 3:30 pm
    • Toronto and Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - March 24, 2017

    River Regulatory Agencies


    Provincial Message

    Issued to Local Authorities by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre


    MNRF Districts

    Algonquin Park, Aurora, Aylmer, Bancroft, Guelph, Kemptville, Midhurst, Parry Sound, Pembroke, Peterborough

    Conservation Authorities

    Ausable Bayfield, Cataraqui Region, Catfish Creek, Central Lake Ontario, Credit Valley, Crowe Valley, Essex Region, Ganaraska Region, Grand River, Grey Sauble, Halton, Hamilton, Kawartha, Kettle Creek, Lake Simcoe Region, Long Point Region, Lower Thames Valley, Lower Trent, Maitland Valley, Mississippi Valley, Niagara Peninsula, Nottawasaga Valley, Otonabee, Quinte, Raisin Region, Rideau Valley, Saugeen, South Nation, St. Clair Region, Toronto and Region, Upper Thames River

    Weather Situation

    A warm front associated with a Colorado low is moving into southern Ontario today (Friday March 24th) and is forecast to produce rain showers of up to 20-25mm with the highest amounts forecast to hit the north shore of Lake Ontario. Temperatures throughout the day will increase to mid-high teens across Southern Ontario today. On Saturday, southwest and southcentral Ontario is forecast to continue to have periods of rain of 10-15mm as the Colorado Low moves into Michigan. On Sunday, the Colorado low will reach to the Great Lakes region continuing to create rain showers across southern Ontario with up to 10-15mm forecast. By Monday, the system will continue to produce lingering showers (5-10mm) to the east half of the province before a ridge moves in on Tuesday clearing skies across most of the Province.


    Flows and levels across southern Ontario are moderately elevated from recent rainfall and snowmelt. Most of the snowpack has ablated from southwest and southcentral Ontario leaving bare ground while some snowpack remains across eastern Ontario and holding up to 100mm of water equivalent. Bare soil is largely saturated and may be frozen in some areas due to the recent cold weather. The incoming precipitation is not forecast to produce major flooding but inundation in low lying areas is possible.

    A close watch on water levels and flows and local weather conditions is recommended.

    Flood Message Definitions

    Provincial flood messages

    There are 2 types of provincial flood messages:

    • the Provincial Flood Watch, which provides consistent and timely technical information about the potential for flooding
    • the Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement, which provides information on provincial watershed conditions as they relate to flood potential, and an outlook on expected spring flood conditions

    Local flood messages

    There are 3 types of local flood messages:

    • flood warning: flooding is imminent or already occurring
    • flood watch: there is the potential for flooding
    • watershed conditions statements: flood Outlook (an early notice of the potential for flooding based on heavy rain, snow melt etc.) and water safety information.

    Who to contact for flood information

    Your local Conservation Authority is responsible for local flood messaging.

    Your local municipality is responsible for on-the-ground flood response.

    If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood watches or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry district office.


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    Updated: August 19, 2016