Flood Forecasting and Warning Program

Information about the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program, which prepares provincial and local authorities in the event of a flood.

Current flood information

Flood information updated as of: June 24, 2019 - 10:15 am

Ontario flood map

Locally issued flood messages

Issued by MNRF Districts and Conservation Authorities

MNRF Districts

  • Kemptville - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - June 7, 2019
  • Parry Sound - Flood Warning French & Lower Pickerel River - June 21, 2019 12:00 pm
  • Sudbury - Flood Warning French & Lower Pickerel River - June 21, 2019 12:00 pm

Conservation Authorities

River Regulatory Agencies

Provincial flood messages

Issued to Local Authorities by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre


Provincial Flood Watch for Southern and Northeast Ontario and Watershed Conditions Statement for Northwest Ontario Issued by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry on June 23, 2019 at 2:00 PM

MNRF Districts

Algonquin Park, Aurora, Aylmer, Bancroft, Chapleau, Cochrane, Dryden, Fort Frances, Guelph, Hearst, Kemptville, Kenora, Kirkland Lake, Midhurst, Nipigon, North Bay, Parry Sound, Pembroke, Peterborough, Red Lake, Sault Ste. Marie, Sioux Lookout, Sudbury, Thunder Bay, Timmins, Wawa, Aurora - Surge, Guelph - Lake Ontario - Surge, Guelph - Lake Erie - Surge, Kemptville - Surge, Peterborough - Surge

Conservation Authorities

Ausable Bayfield, Cataraqui Region, Catfish Creek, Central Lake Ontario, Conservation Sudbury, Credit Valley, Crowe Valley, Essex Region, Ganaraska Region, Grand River, Grey Sauble, Halton Region, Hamilton Region, Kawartha Region, Kettle Creek, Lake Simcoe Region, Lakehead Region, Long Point Region, Lower Thames Valley, Lower Trent, Maitland Valley, Mattagami Region, Mississippi Valley, Niagara Peninsula, North Bay-Mattawa, Nottawasaga Valley, Otonabee Region, Quinte, Raisin Region, Rideau Valley, Saugeen Valley, Sault Ste. Marie Region, South Nation River, St. Clair Region, Toronto and Region, Upper Thames River, Ausable Bayfield - Surge, Cataraqui Region - Surge, Catfish Creek - Surge, Central Lake Ontario - Surge, Credit Valley - Surge, Essex Region - Lake Erie - Surge, Essex Region - Lake St. Clair - Surge, Ganaraska Region - Surge, Grand River - Surge, Grey Sauble - Lake Huron - Surge, Halton Region - Surge, Hamilton Region - Surge, Kettle Creek - Surge, Long Point Region - Surge, Lower Thames Valley - Lake Erie - Surge, Lower Thames Valley - Lake St. Clair - Surge, Lower Trent - Surge, Maitland Valley - Surge, Niagara Peninsula - Lake Erie - Surge, Niagara Peninsula - Lake Ontario - Surge, Quinte - Surge, Saugeen Valley - Surge, St. Clair Region - Lake Huron - Surge, St. Clair Region - Lake St. Clair - Surge, Toronto and Region - Surge

Weather Situation

A slow-moving upper level disturbance (upper low-pressure system) will track through the north-central to southern sections of the province starting Monday. The effect of this system will persist until late Wednesday to early Thursday. Widespread rainfall in the amount of 30 to 40 mm (Monday to Wednesday cumulative total) is forecast in the Northwest Region primarily to the north and east of Lake Superior and Lake Nipigon. In the south, widespread rainfall in the range of 20 to 30 mm cumulative total for Monday to Wednesday is expected for Southwest-Southcentral Regions. North Bay and neighbouring areas are forecast to receive 10 to 20 mm total rainfall in these days cumulatively due to the same system. There is an added risk of thunderstorms which could add another 10 to 15 mm rainfall in the above regions from Monday to Wednesday.

Winds associated with this system could range from 35 to 45 km/h and gusting around 50 to 60 km/h in the Lower Great Lakes Region starting Monday evening. Winds are expected from southeast and gradually transitioning to southerly and then to southwesterly by the time the system exits the province late Wednesday to early Thursday.


Levels and flows in the southern sections of northeastern Ontario continue to experience high, above flood critical conditions but are mostly stable or trending down. Levels and flows can be expected to remain high and watercourses will remain vulnerable as water continues to move through the system. Wind action on high water may also pose additional risk to shoreline properties in vulnerable areas around inland lakes and rivers systems across this region.

Forecast cumulative 3-day rainfall for southern Ontario in the amount of 20 to 30 mm with possible thunderstorms is not expected to cause major flooding concerns but is expected to maintain high water levels in streams that are already high.

Given the above normal water levels on the Great Lakes, wind action and storm surge may pose additional risk at thresholds not normally considered a concern. Please see the flood messaging related to Great Lake water levels for additional details.

Three-day cumulative total rainfall of 30 to 40 mm with the risk of thunderstorms in regions to the north and east of Lake Superior could cause flooding concerns in areas where stream levels are already high due to seasonal rainfall and receding effects of recently concluded freshet in these regions.

A close watch on local forecasts and conditions is recommended.

This message will be in effect until (or updated before) June 25, 2019 at 12 Noon.

Flood Message Definitions

Provincial flood messages

There are 2 types of provincial flood messages:

  • the Provincial Flood Watch, which provides consistent and timely technical information about the potential for flooding
  • the Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement, which provides information on provincial watershed conditions as they relate to flood potential, and an outlook on expected spring flood conditions

Local flood messages

There are 3 types of local flood messages:

  • flood warning: flooding is imminent or already occurring
  • flood watch: there is the potential for flooding
  • watershed conditions statements: flood Outlook (an early notice of the potential for flooding based on heavy rain, snow melt etc.) and water safety information.

Who to contact for flood information

Your local Conservation Authority is responsible for local flood messaging.

Your local municipality is responsible for on-the-ground flood response.

If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood watches or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry district office.


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Updated: May 16, 2019