Flood Forecasting and Warning Program

Information about the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program, which prepares provincial and local authorities in the event of a flood.

Special Lake Ontario Flood Watch

Special Lake Ontario Flood Watch Issued By Ministry of Natural Resources' Surface Water Monitoring Centre for May 1st, 2017

Current flood information

Flood information updated as of: May 24, 2017 - 10:30 am

Ontario flood map

Provincial Flood Watch for Northeast and Southern Ontario Issued by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry Wednesday May 24, 2017 at 10:30 AM

Locally issued flood messages

Issued by MNRF Districts and Conservation Authorities

MNRF Districts

  • Bancroft - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - May 23, 2017
  • Pembroke - Flood Warning - May 18, 2017

    Conservation Authorities

    River Regulatory Agencies

    Provincial Message

    Issued to Local Authorities by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre


    MNRF Districts

    Algonquin Park, Aurora, Aylmer, Bancroft, Cochrane, Guelph, Kemptville, Kirkland Lake, Midhurst, North Bay, Parry Sound, Pembroke, Peterborough, Sudbury, Timmins

    Conservation Authorities

    Ausable Bayfield, Cataraqui Region, Catfish Creek, Central Lake Ontario, Credit Valley, Crowe Valley, Essex Region, Ganaraska Region, Grand River, Halton, Hamilton, Kawartha, Kettle Creek, Lake Simcoe Region, Long Point Region, Lower Thames Valley, Lower Trent, Maitland Valley, Mattagami Region, Mississippi Valley, Niagara Peninsula, Nickel District, North Bay Mattawa, Otonabee, Quinte, Raisin Region, Rideau Valley, South Nation, St. Clair Region, Toronto and Region, Upper Thames River

    Weather Situation

    An area of low pressure tracks easterly through the Prairies today (Wednesday) and another area of low pressure tracks north-easterly up the lower Great lakes on Thursday. The combination of these low pressure disturbances will result in unsettled weather and will bring rain and showers (with a risk of thunderstorms) throughout Southern and Northeastern Ontario.

    Rainfall associated with this system could begin on Wednesday in the southwest of province and gradually move east-northeast on Thursday. 10 to 15 mm rain is expected for southwest Ontario on Wednesday and from 10 to 25 mm for most of Southern Ontario on Thursday. Cumulatively, for the two days, 20 to 40 mm is possible with the risk of thunderstorms in isolated locations which could drive this number higher.

    Southern sectors of the Northeast region might receive 10 to 15 mm cumulatively for Wednesday and Thursday.

    Sustained winds are forecast for the Lower Great Lakes Region in the 15 to 20 km/h range from the north-easterly direction on Wednesday transitioning to easterly on Thursday. Gust reaching 30 km/h are possible in the Lower Great Lakes during this event.


    Lake Ontario and Lake Erie levels continue to be elevated and are forecast to remain so for all of the month of May. See our Special Lake Ontario Flood Watch for more information at www.ontario.ca/flooding.

    Water levels and flows in riverine systems across central and eastern Ontario remain elevated due to spring freshet and heavy rains, but have mostly peaked and are receding.

    Record or near record levels have been observed throughout the region, on many lakes and rivers. States of emergency have been declared in many municipalities.

    In interior lakes and rivers throughout most of south central and eastern Ontario, the forecasted amount of precipitation is not expected to have significant impacts on the decreasing flow and level trend. However where flows are still high, the forecast rainfall is likely to maintain existing flow conditions.

    Flows and levels are moderately high in the southern sectors of northeast due to spring freshet conditions. Forecast rainfall is not likely to cause additional flooding but where flows are already high it is likely to maintain existing flow conditions or slight increase during this event.

    The forecast sustained winds across the Lower Great Lakes might produce surge and wave action on the shores of Lake Erie and Ontario that could worsen existing high water conditions that are being experienced in the region.

    Ice break-up is nearing completion on the Attawapiskat River in the Cochrane District and has completed on the Albany and Moose Rivers. Levels and flows are rising on the Severn and Winisk Rivers but flooding concerns and low at this time.

    Close attention should be paid to local flood conditions reports from conservation authorities and municipalities, and as always, a close watch on meteorological conditions, including wind, is recommended.

    This message will be in effect until (or updated before) Friday, May 26th, 2017 at 5:00pm.

    Flood Message Definitions

    Provincial flood messages

    There are 2 types of provincial flood messages:

    • the Provincial Flood Watch, which provides consistent and timely technical information about the potential for flooding
    • the Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement, which provides information on provincial watershed conditions as they relate to flood potential, and an outlook on expected spring flood conditions

    Local flood messages

    There are 3 types of local flood messages:

    • flood warning: flooding is imminent or already occurring
    • flood watch: there is the potential for flooding
    • watershed conditions statements: flood Outlook (an early notice of the potential for flooding based on heavy rain, snow melt etc.) and water safety information.

    Who to contact for flood information

    Your local Conservation Authority is responsible for local flood messaging.

    Your local municipality is responsible for on-the-ground flood response.

    If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood watches or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry district office.


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    Updated: August 19, 2016