Flood Forecasting and Warning Program

Information about the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program, which prepares provincial and local authorities in the event of a flood.

Current flood information

Flood information updated as of: April 23, 2019 - 7:00 pm

Provincial Flood Watch for Lake Erie (Eastern Basin) Issued By Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry's Surface Water Monitoring Centre for April 8, 2019

Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement for Lake Ontario Issued by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry April 23, 2019

Ontario flood map


Provincial Flood Watch Issued for Ontario by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry on April 21, 2019 at 12:30 PM


Locally issued flood messages

Issued by MNRF Districts and Conservation Authorities

MNRF Districts

  • Bancroft - Flood Warning and Flood Watch - April 23, 2019 1:30 pm
  • Chapleau - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 22, 2019
  • Cochrane - Flood Watch - Albany River - April 23, 2019 11:00 am
  • Cochrane - Flood Watch -Moose River - April 23, 2019 11:00 am
  • Kemptville - Flood Warning - April 19, 2019
  • Kirkland Lake - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 23, 2019 3:30 pm
  • Midhurst - Flood Watch - April 23, 2019 11:00 am
  • North Bay - Flood Watch - April 23, 2019 3:30 pm
  • North Bay - Flood Warning - April 20, 2019 10:30 am
  • Parry Sound - Flood Warning - April 19, 2019
  • Pembroke - Flood Warning - April 20, 2019
  • Sault Ste. Marie - Flood Warning - April 21, 2019
  • Sudbury - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 18, 2019 3:00 pm
  • Wawa - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 23, 2019 10:00 am

Conservation Authorities

River Regulatory Agencies


Provincial Message

Issued to Local Authorities by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre

 

MNRF Districts

Algonquin Park, Aurora, Aylmer, Bancroft, Chapleau, Cochrane, Guelph, Hearst, Kemptville, Kirkland Lake, Midhurst, Nipigon, North Bay, Parry Sound, Pembroke, Peterborough, Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, Thunder Bay, Timmins, Wawa

Conservation Authorities

Ausable Bayfield, Cataraqui Region, Catfish Creek, Central Lake Ontario, Credit Valley, Crowe Valley, Essex Region, Ganaraska Region, Grand River, Grey Sauble, Halton Region, Hamilton Region, Kawartha Region, Kettle Creek, Lake Simcoe Region, Long Point Region, Lower Thames Valley, Lower Trent, Maitland Valley, Mattagami Region, Mississippi Valley, Niagara Peninsula, Nickel District, North Bay Mattawa, Nottawasaga Valley, Otonabee Region, Quinte, Raisin Region, Rideau Valley, Saugeen Valley, Sault Ste. Marie Region, South Nation River, St. Clair Region, Toronto and Region, Upper Thames River

Weather Situation

Minimal precipitation is forecast across the Province today (Sunday April 21) but another system is forecast to move into northeastern Ontario this evening bringing 15 to 30 mm of rain across a swath from the eastern shores of Lake Superior to the Quebec border. The system is forecast to continue to drop another 15 to 25 mm of rain through parts of central and northeastern Ontario with higher amounts currently forecast north of Lake Nipissing.

Moderate thunderstorms may be associated with this event and have the potential to add 10 to 25 mm of rain in isolated areas. Event totals through to Tuesday evening have the potential to reach 50 mm of rain with 50 to 75 mm in isolated areas.

The system is forecast to move out by Wednesday with minimal precipitation currently in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday across the Province.

High winds associated with this system are forecast across the lower Great Lakes with winds in the range of 30 to 35 km/hr and stronger gusts up to 50 to 60 km/hr forecast across Lake Erie on Tuesday.

Daytime high temperatures are forecast in the 0 to 15 degrees Celsius range across most of the north of the Province over the next five days with forecasted highs in the 5 to 20 degrees Celsius range in the south. Night-time low temperatures are largely forecast to stay at or below 0 degrees Celsius in areas north of Lake Superior and remain at or above 0 degrees Celsius in areas south of Lake Superior.

Mid-April snow surveys showed a continuing snowpack in central and northeastern Ontario ranging from 100 to 200 mm of snow water equivalent in central Ontario and 100 to 250 mm in northeastern Ontario. These values will have been reduced by recent rain and melt but it is expected that substantial snowpack remains in parts of central Ontario and across northeastern Ontario. The next Provincial snow survey is scheduled for the beginning of May.

Risks

South and central Ontario has received a substantial amount of precipitation since Thursday with some areas seeing up to 70 mm of rain. Water levels and stream flows across the affected areas have risen sharply and have reached flood stage in many areas.

Flood warnings have been issued across the affected area with road closures reported and some area residents impacted by flooding. Smaller streams and areas with less combined rain and melt have peaked but many of the systems are continuing to rise and may remain high into next week. The additional rainfall forecast for central and eastern Ontario on Tuesday will contribute to maintaining high flows and levels.

In addition, high winds across the lower Great Lakes in combination with the rain has caused shoreline flooding issues in some areas.

Flows and levels across northeastern Ontario are moderate but are rising from recent melt. The forecast warm temperatures and precipitation are likely to further degrade existing snowpack and river ice, produce significant runoff and further increase levels and flows.

Risks to this area may include degradation of river ice and ice jam related flooding from increasing temperatures and flows, fast moving cold water with rapidly changing conditions, and flooding of low-lying areas.

A close watch on local forecasts and conditions is recommended.


Flood Message Definitions

Provincial flood messages

There are 2 types of provincial flood messages:

  • the Provincial Flood Watch, which provides consistent and timely technical information about the potential for flooding
  • the Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement, which provides information on provincial watershed conditions as they relate to flood potential, and an outlook on expected spring flood conditions

Local flood messages

There are 3 types of local flood messages:

  • flood warning: flooding is imminent or already occurring
  • flood watch: there is the potential for flooding
  • watershed conditions statements: flood Outlook (an early notice of the potential for flooding based on heavy rain, snow melt etc.) and water safety information.

Who to contact for flood information

Your local Conservation Authority is responsible for local flood messaging.

Your local municipality is responsible for on-the-ground flood response.

If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood watches or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry district office.

 

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Updated: March 29, 2019