2019-20 Third Quarter Finances
January 2020
The Third Quarter Finances report contains information about Ontario’s 2019–20 fiscal outlook as of December 31, 2019.
Highlights
- As of December 31, 2019, the government is projecting a deficit of $9.0 billion in 2019–20, an improvement of $1.3 billion from the outlook presented in the 2019 Budget and unchanged since the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.
- Ontario's economy continued to grow in the third quarter of 2019. Real GDP grew by 0.6 per cent, following a gain of 0.8 per cent in the second quarter.
- Since June 2018, 291,900 net new jobs have been created. The annual unemployment rate in 2019 was 5.6 per cent, matching the 2018 rate, which was the lowest since the late 1980s.
- Total revenue is projected to be $157.2 billion in 2019–20, $3.1 billion higher than the 2019 Budget projection and $1.5 billion higher than expected in the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.
- Program expenses are $2.5 billion higher than the 2019 Budget in part due to investments in health care, education and other social services announced in the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. Through prudent fiscal management, the 2019–20 Third Quarter Finances includes additional funding to help keep Ontarians' electricity bills more stable and affordable, while maintaining a $9.0 billion deficit outlook for 2019–20.
- Since the release of the 2019 Budget, credit rating agencies — Moody's, DBRS , S&P and Fitch — confirmed the Province's current credit ratings and Fitch improved the outlook on Ontario's rating to Stable from Negative.
- Interest rates have dropped substantially since the time of the 2019 Budget. This has allowed the Province to project interest on debt savings of $630 million relative to the Budget forecast, including $200 million since the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, while also completing the $31.9 billion total long-term public borrowing requirement for 2019–20, as of January 23, 2020.
- Additional details on the Province's fiscal performance for 2019–20 will be provided in the 2020 Budget.
Introduction
The government continues to make steady progress in its plan to return to a balanced budget. The government's responsible and prudent approach to managing the Province's finances has allowed for additional investments in critical public services while making life more affordable for individuals, families and businesses. Since the second quarter of 2018, Ontario's household disposable income has increased 5.5 per cent.
These measures, along with creating an open for business environment, have supported a growing economy and job creation.
Since June 2018, 291,900 net new jobs have been created, while the unemployment rate was 5.3 per cent as of December 2019. The government is taking steps to help grow the economy by making Ontario open for business and establishing a robust business environment.
The 2019–20 Third Quarter Finances is reporting a deficit of $9.0 billion in 2019–20, which maintains the same deficit level as reported in the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. Compared to the 2019 Budget, the outlook shows an improvement of $1.3 billion.
The measures implemented by the government to restore fiscal health to the Province's books are paying off. Moody's, DBRS, S&P and Fitch have confirmed the Province's current credit ratings and Fitch improved the outlook on Ontario's rating to Stable from Negative.
Ontario's new fiscal legislation, the Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 (FSTAA), requires Ontario's Third Quarter Finances to be released on or before February 15th of each year. In compliance with the legislated framework, this document is being released in advance of that deadline.
The FSTAA also requires the Auditor General to review the government's compliance with the Act. In her 2019 Annual Report,
Section A: Ontario's 2019–20 fiscal outlook
The Province's 2019–20 deficit is projected to be $9.0 billion — an improvement of $1.3 billion from the outlook published in the 2019 Budget and unchanged from the forecast provided at the release of the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. Improvements are primarily due to higher than forecast revenues and lower projected interest on debt expense, offset by increases in program expense.
Total revenue is projected to be $157.2 billion, $3.1 billion higher than the 2019 Budget projection and $1.5 billion higher than expected in the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. Improvements in the revenue forecast largely reflect strong job growth, rising household incomes and strengthening home resales.
Program expense is projected to be $152.6 billion, $2.5 billion higher than the 2019 Budget projection, primarily due to investments in health care, education and other social services announced in the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review and additional funding to help Ontarians benefit from stable electricity bills. Helping consumers manage electricity bills is a critical component of the government's commitment to affordability for people and small business. This additional expense recognizes the cost of paying for the high-cost system put in place by the previous government.
The net debt-to-GDP ratio is now projected to be 39.9 per cent in 2019–20, 0.1 percentage points lower than the 40.0 per cent forecast in the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review and 0.8 percentage points lower than the 40.7 per cent forecast in the 2019 Budget.
The 2019–20 outlook also maintains a $1.0 billion reserve to protect the fiscal outlook against unforeseen adverse changes in the Province's revenue and expense forecasts for the remainder of the fiscal year.
2019–20 In-year fiscal performance
| Item | Budget Plan | Current Outlook1 | In-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 154,165 | 157,247 | 3,082 |
| Expense — Programs | 150,109 | 152,560 | 2,451 |
| Expense — Interest on Debt | 13,335 | 12,705 | (630) |
| Total Expense | 163,444 | 165,265 | 1,821 |
| Surplus/(Deficit) Before Reserve | (9,279) | (8,018) | 1,262 |
| Reserve | 1,000 | 1,000 | – |
| Surplus/(Deficit) | (10,279) | (9,018) | 1,262 |
[1] Current outlook reflects government decisions and information available as of December 31, 2019.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Revenue
The 2019–20 revenue outlook is projected to be $157.2 billion, $3.1 billion higher than forecast in the 2019 Budget and $1.5 billion higher than expected in the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, mostly due to higher projected taxation revenue, in particular, higher Personal Income Tax (PIT) and Harmonized Sales Tax (HST).
Compared to the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, the PIT revenue outlook is $749 million higher due to increased revenues indicated by processing of 2018 and prior-year tax returns. Sales Tax revenue is $1,084 million higher than forecast, mainly reflecting revised official federal HST entitlement updates for the years up to and including 2020, mainly driven by a higher 2018 entitlement estimate. Land Transfer Tax is $89 million higher reflecting stronger home resales. The Corporations Tax revenue forecast is lower by $504 million, largely due to weaker than expected 2019 corporate profits. All Other Tax revenue combined is $60 million higher mostly due to higher revenues from Preferred Share Dividend Tax and Ontario Health Premium, partially offset by lower revenues from Electricity Payments in-Lieu of Taxes, and Beer, Wine and Spirits Tax.
Federal Transfers revenue has increased by $158 million above the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review forecast, largely due to a $169 million payment to Ontario under the federal Low Carbon Economy Leadership Fund after successfully negotiating with the federal government to recognize that past expenditures made by the Province are eligible for support under this program.
Income from Government Business Enterprises is lower by $149 million, largely due to lower forecasted net income from Ontario Power Generation on a provincial consolidation basis.
| Item | 2019–20 |
|---|---|
| Revenue Changes Reported in the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review | 1,596 |
| Revenue Changes since the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review — Personal Income Tax | 749 |
| Revenue Changes since the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review — Sales Tax | 1,084 |
| Revenue Changes since the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review — Corporations Tax | (504) |
| Revenue Changes since the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review — Land Transfer Tax | 89 |
| Revenue Changes since the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review — All Other Taxes | 60 |
| Total Taxation Revenue | 1,478 |
| Government of Canada Transfers | 158 |
| Government Business Enterprises | (149) |
| Total Revenue Changes since the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review | 1,486 |
| Total Revenue Changes Projected since the 2019 Budget | 3,082 |
[1] Changes are shown since the 2019 Budget.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
The revenue changes outlined above are based on information available at the end of the third quarter. There are further upside and downside risks that could materially affect the 2019–20 revenue outlook. These include changes to the economic growth outlook, information on tax assessments and revenue collections from Ontario-administered taxes. The government will monitor these economic and revenue developments and will provide further details in future fiscal updates.
Expense
Total expense is projected to be $165.3 billion, $1.8 billion higher than the 2019 Budget projections. Since the release of the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, several investments intended to make life more affordable and modernize government have been introduced.
| Item | 2019–20 |
|---|---|
| Net Changes in Program Expense Reported in the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review | 771 |
| Program Expense Changes Projected since the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review — Electricity Cost Relief Program | 1,560 |
| Program Expense Changes Projected since the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review — Municipal Modernization Program | 10 |
| Program Expense Changes Projected since the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review — Modernizing Ontario Public Service Cyber Security | 5 |
| Program Expense Changes Projected since the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review — Net Change to the Contingency Fund | 105 |
| Total Program Expense Changes Projected since the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review | 1,680 |
| Interest on Debt Change | (630) |
| Total Expense Changes Projected since the 2019 Budget | 1,821 |
[1] Changes are shown since the 2019 Budget.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
The outlook for program expense in 2019–20 is projected to be $152.6 billion, a projected increase of approximately $2.5 billion compared to the 2019 Budget and $1.7 billion since the release of the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.
Key changes to program expense projections since the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review include:
- An increase of $1.6 billion to address pressures in electricity cost relief programs, including the cost of the new Ontario Electricity Rebate. This rebate ensures that electricity bills for people and small businesses are kept stable and affordable.
Other changes to program expense projections offset by the contingency fund include:
- An increase of $10 million in 2019–20 for the Municipal Modernization Program, an application-based program to help the province's 405 small and rural municipalities in finding and implementing efficiencies in service delivery; and
- Funding of $5 million in 2019–20 for Modernizing Ontario Public Service Cyber Security services to enable secure digital interactions and better detect and deter advanced cyber threats.
After accounting for the draws from the contingency fund in this quarter, the net position of the contingency fund is $105 million higher to mitigate expense risks by keeping the necessary prudence in place so that the government can continue to deliver on priorities. Any unused contingency funds at year end will go towards reducing the Province's net debt position.
Interest on debt expense is projected to be $12.7 billion. Interest rates have continued to remain low compared with the forecast at the time of the 2019 Budget. This has allowed the Province to project interest on debt savings of $630 million relative to the 2019 Budget, with $200 million in savings coming since the release of the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.
Fiscal prudence
The Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019, requires Ontario's fiscal plan to incorporate prudence in the form of a reserve to protect the fiscal outlook against unforeseen adverse changes in the Province's revenue and expense, including those resulting from changes in Ontario's economic performance. The 2019 Budget included a reserve of $1.0 billion in 2019–20, which has remained unchanged as part of the current fiscal outlook.
Contingency funds are also maintained to help mitigate expense risks — for example, in cases where health and safety may be compromised — that may otherwise adversely affect Ontario's fiscal performance. The remaining contingency fund is currently projected at $653.8 million for 2019–20.
Section B: Ontario's economic outlook
Private-sector forecasters, on average as of January 22, 2020, estimate that real GDP grew by 1.7 per cent in 2019, above the 1.5 per cent projected at the time of the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. This estimate is subject to revision as new economic indicators for 2019 are released. The current private-sector outlook for real GDP growth in 2020 is unchanged from the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, at 1.7 per cent.
There are a broad range of risks surrounding the economic outlook. Globally, heightened trade uncertainty weighed on manufacturing and investment activity in 2019. Domestically, elevated debt levels continue to pose a challenge for households. There are also risks from geopolitical tensions and financial market valuations. However, lower than projected interest rates are expected to continue to provide support for the economic outlook.
Section C: Ontario's economic performance
Ontario's economy experienced modest growth in 2019. Real GDP grew by 0.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2019, following a gain of 0.8 per cent in the second quarter. Third quarter growth was supported by higher consumer spending, investment in residential structures and stronger exports. Ontario's real GDP growth outpaced Canadian growth of 0.3 per cent in the third quarter and was in line with second quarter growth of 0.9 per cent.
Employment in Ontario is growing strongly and the unemployment rate remains low. Ontario's employment advanced by 210,200 jobs in 2019 or 2.9 per cent, the strongest gain since 2003. The annual unemployment rate in 2019 was 5.6 per cent, matching the 2018 rate, which was the lowest since the late 1980s.
Ontario's home resales rebounded by 8.9 per cent in 2019, following two consecutive years of declines. In addition, many other key economic indicators posted gains in 2019, including wholesale trade and retail sales.
Ontario key economic indicators
| Item | Monthly 2019 Oct | Monthly 2019 Nov | Monthly 2019 Dec | Quarterly 2019Q3 | Quarterly 2019Q4 | Annual 2018 | Year-to-date 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Domestic Product1 — Real GDP | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.6 | N/A | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Gross Domestic Product2 — Nominal GDP | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.2 | N/A | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| Labour Market — Employment (Change in 000s) | (11.9) | 17.9 | 17.1 | 48.0 | 46.7 | 114.4 | 210.2 |
| Labour Market — Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| Other Key Economic Indicators — Retail Sales | (1.9) | 1.6 | N/A | 1.1 | N/A | 4.4 | 2.6 |
| Other Key Economic Indicators — Housing Starts | (13.1) | (12.2) | (11.7) | 15.3 | (16.3) | (0.5) | (12.4) |
| Other Key Economic Indicators — MLS Home Resales | (1.2) | 1.3 | (4.4) | 6.2 | (0.8) | (13.1) | 8.9 |
| Other Key Economic Indicators — Manufacturing Sales | (2.6) | 1.4 | N/A | (0.5) | N/A | 3.9 | 0.2 |
| Other Key Economic Indicators — Wholesale Trade | 0.4 | (1.6) | N/A | 1.9 | N/A | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Other Key Economic Indicators — Consumer Price Index3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.9 |
[1], [2] 2019 GDP growth is the Ontario Ministry of Finance's planning assumption from the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.
[3] Per cent change from a year earlier, data not seasonally adjusted.
N/A = Data not available
Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, and Canadian Real Estate Association.
Section D: Details of Ontario's finances
Revenue
| Item | 2019–20 Budget Plan | 2019–20 Current Outlook | In-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taxation Revenue — Personal Income Tax | 36,600 | 37,874 | 1,274 |
| Taxation Revenue — Sales Tax | 28,076 | 29,151 | 1,075 |
| Taxation Revenue — Corporations Tax | 15,171 | 15,603 | 432 |
| Taxation Revenue — Education Property Tax | 6,085 | 6,197 | 112 |
| Taxation Revenue — Employer Health Tax | 6,837 | 6,823 | (14) |
| Taxation Revenue — Ontario Health Premium | 4,021 | 4,070 | 49 |
| Taxation Revenue — Gasoline Tax | 2,766 | 2,744 | (22) |
| Taxation Revenue — Land Transfer Tax | 2,877 | 3,056 | 179 |
| Taxation Revenue — Tobacco Tax | 1,213 | 1,205 | (8) |
| Taxation Revenue — Fuel Tax | 776 | 790 | 14 |
| Taxation Revenue — Beer, Wine and Spirits Taxes | 618 | 594 | (24) |
| Taxation Revenue — Ontario Portion of the Federal Cannabis Excise Duty | 70 | 70 | – |
| Taxation Revenue — Electricity Payments in Lieu of Taxes | 488 | 432 | (56) |
| Taxation Revenue — Other Taxes | 540 | 612 | 72 |
| Taxation Revenue — Total | 106,138 | 109,221 | 3,083 |
| Government of Canada — Canada Health Transfer | 15,646 | 15,638 | (8) |
| Government of Canada — Canada Social Transfer | 5,653 | 5,650 | (3) |
| Government of Canada — Equalization | – | – | – |
| Government of Canada — Infrastructure Programs | 1,043 | 1,043 | – |
| Government of Canada — Labour Market Programs | 1,036 | 1,036 | – |
| Government of Canada — Social Housing Agreement | 359 | 359 | – |
| Government of Canada — Other Federal Payments | 1,386 | 1,555 | 169 |
| Government of Canada — Direct Transfers to Broader Public-Sector Organizations | 330 | 330 | – |
| Government of Canada — Total | 25,453 | 25,611 | 158 |
| Income from Government Business Enterprises — Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation | 2,414 | 2,414 | – |
| Income from Government Business Enterprises — Liquor Control Board of Ontario | 2,339 | 2,339 | – |
| Income from Government Business Enterprises — Ontario Cannabis Store | 10 | 10 | – |
| Income from Government Business Enterprises — Ontario Power Generation Inc./Hydro One Ltd. | 1,058 | 909 | (149) |
| Income from Government Business Enterprises — Total | 5,821 | 5,672 | (149) |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Reimbursements | 981 | 981 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Vehicle and Driver Registration Fees | 2,066 | 2,055 | (11) |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Electricity Debt Retirement Charge | – | – | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Power Supply Contract Recoveries | 125 | 125 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Sales and Rentals | 1,590 | 1,592 | 2 |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Carbon Allowance Proceeds | – | – | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Other Fees and Licences | 1,080 | 1,080 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Net Reduction of Power Purchase Contracts | 30 | 30 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Royalties | 287 | 287 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Fees, Donations and Other Revenues from Hospitals, School Boards and Colleges | 9,364 | 9,364 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Miscellaneous Other Non-Tax Revenue | 1,230 | 1,230 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Total | 16,753 | 16,744 | (9) |
| Total Revenue | 154,165 | 157,247 | 3,082 |
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Total expense1
| Ministry Expense | 2019–20 Budget Plan2 | 2019–20 Current Outlook | In-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (Base) | 828.8 | 841.2 | 12.4 |
| Time-Limited Investments in Infrastructure | 38.5 | 38.5 | – |
| Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (Total) | 867.4 | 879.8 | 12.4 |
| Attorney General (Total) | 1,603.7 | 1,603.7 | – |
| Board of Internal Economy (Total) | 287.5 | 287.5 | – |
| Children, Community and Social Services (Total) | 16,585.9 | 17,223.1 | 637.1 |
| Colleges and Universities3 (Base) | 9,996.7 | 9,996.9 | 0.2 |
| Student Financial Assistance | 1,372.2 | 1,372.2 | – |
| Colleges and Universities4 (Total) | 11,368.9 | 11,369.1 | 0.2 |
| Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade (Total) | 773.5 | 773.3 | (0.2) |
| Education (Base) | 29,783.7 | 29,969.5 | 185.8 |
| Teachers' Pension Plan5 | 1,732.0 | 1,732.0 | – |
| Education (Total) | 31,515.7 | 31,701.5 | 185.8 |
| Energy, Northern Development and Mines (Base) | 1,165.8 | 1,165.8 | – |
| Electricity Cost Relief Programs | 4,012.7 | 5,572.9 | 1,560.2 |
| Energy, Northern Development and Mines (Total) | 5,178.5 | 6,738.7 | 1,560.2 |
| Environment, Conservation and Parks (Total) | 606.2 | 606.2 | – |
| Executive Offices (Total) | 37.5 | 37.5 | – |
| Finance (Base) | 819.5 | 819.5 | – |
| Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund | 505.0 | 505.0 | – |
| Power Supply Contract Costs | 125.1 | 125.1 | – |
| Finance (Total) | 1,449.6 | 1,449.6 | – |
| Francophone Affairs (Total) | 5.8 | 5.8 | – |
| Government and Consumer Services (Total) | 1,687.2 | 1,692.5 | 5.3 |
| Health and Long-Term Care6 (Total) | 63,426.7 | 63,830.8 | 404.1 |
| Heritage, Sport, Tourism and Culture Industries7 (Total) | 1,495.5 | 1,511.5 | 16.0 |
| Indigenous Affairs (Total) | 72.2 | 72.2 | – |
| Infrastructure (Base) | 431.8 | 415.8 | (16.0) |
| Federal–Provincial Infrastructure Programs | 133.7 | 133.7 | – |
| Infrastructure (Total) | 565.5 | 549.5 | (16.0) |
| Labour, Training, and Skills Development8 (Total) | 292.9 | 292.9 | – |
| Municipal Affairs and Housing (Base) | 840.5 | 850.5 | 10.0 |
| Time-Limited Investments | 270.9 | 270.9 | – |
| Municipal Affairs and Housing (Total) | 1,111.5 | 1,121.5 | 10.0 |
| Natural Resources and Forestry (Base) | 568.8 | 568.8 | – |
| Emergency Forest Firefighting | 69.8 | 129.8 | 60.0 |
| Natural Resources and Forestry (Total) | 638.6 | 698.6 | 60.0 |
| Seniors and Accessibility (Total) | 50.8 | 50.8 | – |
| Solicitor General (Total) | 2,644.7 | 2,644.7 | – |
| Transportation (Base) | 4,473.5 | 4,487.5 | 14.0 |
| Federal–Provincial Infrastructure Programs | 638.5 | 638.5 | – |
| Transportation (Total) | 5,112.0 | 5,126.0 | 14.0 |
| Treasury Board Secretariat (Base) | 279.3 | 287.5 | 8.1 |
| Employee and Pensioner Benefits9 | 1,352.0 | 1,352.0 | – |
| Operating Contingency Fund | 775.0 | 328.8 | (446.2) |
| Capital Contingency Fund | 325.0 | 325.0 | – |
| Treasury Board Secretariat (Total) | 2,731.3 | 2,293.3 | (438.0) |
| Interest on Debt10 | 13,335.0 | 12,705.0 | (630.0) |
| Year-End Savings | – | – | – |
| Total Expense | 163,444.1 | 165,265.0 | 1,820.9 |
[1], [3], [4], [7], [8] On October 21, 2019 the government announced that the Ministry of Labour would become the Ministry of Labour, Training and Skills Development; the Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities would become the Ministry of Colleges and Universities; and the Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Sport would become the Ministry of Heritage, Sport, Tourism and Culture Industries. Changes to the names of these ministries are reflected in the 2019–20 Third Quarter Finances; any resulting changes to ministry expense will be reflected in future updates.
[2] Ministry expenses have been reclassified to aggregate all expenses incurred related to the Government Real Estate Portfolio (GREP) under the Ministry of Government and Consumer Services and projects supported through Infrastructure Ontario under the Ministry of Infrastructure, which holds responsibility for the activities of these two government entities.
[5], [9] Numbers reflect the pension expense that was calculated based on recommendations of the Independent Financial Commission of Inquiry, as described in Note 19 to the Consolidated Financial Statements in Public Accounts of Ontario 2017–2018.
[6] On June 20, 2019 the government announced that the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care would become the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Long-Term Care. Future updates will report the two ministries separately.
[10] Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $475 million in 2019–20.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Infrastructure expenditures
| Sector | 2019–20 Current Outlook Investment in Capital Assets1 | 2019–20 Current Outlook Transfers and Other Infrastructure Expenditures2 | 2019–20 Current Outlook Total Infrastructure Expenditures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transportation — Transit | 4,294 | 1,234 | 5,527 |
| Transportation — Provincial Highways | 2,577 | 160 | 2,737 |
| Transportation — Other Transportation, Property and Planning | 189 | 96 | 284 |
| Health — Hospitals | 2,354 | 3 | 2,357 |
| Health — Other Health | 78 | 158 | 237 |
| Education | 2,416 | 10 | 2,426 |
| Postsecondary — Colleges and Other | 297 | 2 | 299 |
| Postsecondary — Universities | – | 52 | 52 |
| Social | 25 | 272 | 297 |
| Justice | 487 | 130 | 617 |
| Other Sectors3 | 857 | 939 | 1,796 |
| Total Infrastructure Expenditures | 13,573 | 3,056 | 16,630 |
| Less: Other Partner Funding4 | 1,891 | – | 1,891 |
| Total5 | 11,682 | 3,056 | 14,739 |
[1] Includes $475 million in interest capitalized during construction.
[2] Includes transfers to municipalities, universities and non-consolidated agencies.
[3] Includes government administration, natural resources, and the culture and tourism industries.
[4] Other Partner Funding refers to third-party investments primarily in hospitals, colleges and schools.
[5] Includes Federal/Municipal contributions to provincial infrastructure investments.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Five-year review of selected financial and economic statistics1, 2
| Item | 2015–16 | 2016–17 | 2017–18 | Actual 2018–19 | Current Outlook 2019–20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 136,148 | 140,734 | 150,594 | 153,700 | 157,247 |
| Expense — Programs | 129,905 | 131,460 | 142,363 | 148,751 | 152,560 |
| Expense — Interest on Debt3 | 11,589 | 11,709 | 11,903 | 12,384 | 12,705 |
| Total Expense | 141,494 | 143,169 | 154,266 | 161,135 | 165,265 |
| Reserve | – | – | – | – | 1,000 |
| Surplus/(Deficit) | (5,346) | (2,435) | (3,672) | (7,435) | (9,018) |
| Net Debt | 306,357 | 314,077 | 323,834 | 338,496 | 353,737 |
| Accumulated Deficit | 203,014 | 205,939 | 209,023 | 216,642 | 224,660 |
| Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices | 760,435 | 790,749 | 826,945 | 857,384 | 886,394 |
| Primary Household Income | 512,570 | 520,486 | 543,084 | 567,086 | 589,776 |
| Population – July (000s)4 | 13,707 | 13,875 | 14,073 | 14,319 | 14,567 |
| Net Debt Per Capita (dollars) | 22,350 | 22,636 | 23,012 | 23,640 | 24,283 |
| Household Income Per Capita (dollars) | 37,394 | 37,511 | 38,592 | 39,605 | 40,488 |
| Interest on Debt as a Per Cent of Revenue | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% |
| Net Debt as a Per Cent of GDP | 40.3% | 39.7% | 39.2% | 39.5% | 39.9% |
| Accumulated Deficit as a Per Cent of GDP | 26.7% | 26.0% | 25.3% | 25.3% | 25.3% |
[1] Amounts reflect a change in pension expense that was calculated based on recommendations of the Independent Financial Commission of Inquiry, as described in Note 19 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, in Public Accounts of Ontario 2017–2018. Amounts for net debt and accumulated deficit also reflect this change.
[2] Revenues and expenses have been restated to reflect the following fiscally neutral changes: i) revised presentation of education property taxes to be included in the taxation revenues; ii) reclassification of certain Government Business Enterprises to other government organizations; iii) reclassification of a number of tax measures that provide a financial benefit through the tax system to be reported as expenses; and iv) change in presentation of third-party revenue for hospitals, school boards and colleges to be reported as revenue.
[3] Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $165 million in 2015–16, $159 million in 2016–17, $157 million in 2017–18, $175 million in 2018–19 and $475 million in 2019–20.
[4] Population figures are for July 1 of the fiscal year indicated (i.e. for 2015–16, the population on July 1, 2015 is shown).
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance and Treasury Board Secretariat.
Section E: Ontario's 2019–20 borrowing program
The forecast for the Province's 2019–20 long-term public borrowing program remains at $31.9 billion, unchanged from the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review and $4.1 billion lower than the forecast in the 2019 Budget.
Ontario's 2019–20 Borrowing program
| Item | 2019–20 2019 Budget | 2019–20 Current Outlook | 2019–20 In-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficit/(Surplus) | 10.3 | 9.0 | (1.3) |
| Investment in Capital Assets | 11.6 | 11.6 | – |
| Non-Cash Adjustments | (7.7) | (7.7) | – |
| Loans to Infrastructure Ontario | 0.2 | 0.2 | – |
| Other Net Loans/Investments | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Debt Maturities/Redemptions | 27.5 | 27.4 | (0.1) |
| Total Funding Requirement | 42.5 | 41.2 | (1.3) |
| Decrease/(Increase) in Short-Term Borrowing | (1.2) | (3.0) | (1.8) |
| Increase/(Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents | (5.3) | (6.3) | (1.0) |
| Total Long-Term Public Borrowing | 36.0 | 31.9 | (4.1) |
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Source: Ontario Financing Authority.
Interest rates have continued to remain low compared with the forecast at the time of the 2019 Budget. This has allowed the Province to project interest on debt savings of $630 million relative to the 2019 Budget forecast. As of January 23, 2020, the $31.9 billion total long-term public borrowing requirement of the Province, for 2019–20, has been completed and, based on favourable market conditions, the Province may engage in pre-borrowing for 2020–21.
Approximately 67 per cent of this year's borrowing has been completed in Canadian dollars, with the remainder issued in U.S. dollars and Australian dollars.
| Item | ($ Billions) |
|---|---|
| Canadian Dollar Issues | 21.3 |
| Foreign Currency Issues | 10.6 |
| Total | 31.9 |
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Ministry of Finance
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© Queen's Printer for Ontario, 2020
Chart description
Chart: Ontario real GDP growth
This bar chart shows the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review forecast and private-sector average forecast for Ontario real GDP growth in 2019 and 2020. In the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, the Ministry of Finance projected Ontario's real GDP to rise by 1.4 per cent in 2019 and 1.5 per cent in 2020. Private-sector forecasters, on average, currently project growth of 1.7 per cent in 2019, up from the 1.5 per cent increase expected at the time of the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, and 1.7 per cent in 2020, unchanged from the time of the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.
Footnotes
- footnote[1] Back to paragraph Office of the Auditor General of Ontario, "Annual Report, 2019", page 27.