2026–27 First Quarter Finances
The First Quarter Finances report contains information about Ontario’s 2026–27 fiscal outlook, primarily as of June 30, 2026.
Highlights
- As of the 2026–27 First Quarter Finances, the province’s 2026–27 deficit is projected to be $13.8 billion, consistent with the outlook published in the 2026 Budget.
- Revenues in 2026–27 are projected to be $232.0 billion, $0.1 billion higher than forecasted in the 2026 Budget.
- Overall program expense in 2026–27 is projected to be $227.1 billion, $0.1 billion higher than forecasted in the 2026 Budget.
- In the first calendar quarter of 2026, Ontario's real gross domestic product (GDP) edged down 0.1 per cent, following a decline of 0.3 per cent in the previous quarter. The first quarter decline was largely due to weaker net trade, which was impacted by heightened external risks, including U.S. tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Private-sector expectations for real GDP growth for 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward since the 2026 Budget. Uncertainty related to U.S. trade policy, along with geopolitical conflicts, continues to remain a key risk to Ontario’s economic outlook.
Introduction
Amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the 2026 Budget, released this past spring, delivered a balanced approach—supporting people and businesses through targeted investments, while maintaining prudent fiscal management and a sustainable medium-term outlook.
The 2026–27 First Quarter Finances builds on this successful approach. Ontario’s fiscal outlook remains consistent with the forecast presented in the 2026 Budget, while reflecting additional investments to strengthen social supports and advance economic development priorities. The government will continue to take the necessary actions to protect Ontario, including by building the most competitive economy in the G7 while also investing in critical public services.
While economic growth in Canada and Ontario was weak in the first quarter of 2026, a number of key monthly indicators suggest economic growth resumed in the second quarter of 2026.
Following the release of the 2026 Budget, all four major credit rating agencies—Moody’s, Fitch, Morningstar DBRS and S&P Global—affirmed Ontario’s AA credit rating with a stable outlook. This reflects Ontario’s commitment to maintaining its targets for debt sustainability measures, despite the economic and geopolitical uncertainties the province is currently facing.
The government will continue to monitor economic and fiscal risks, and will provide its next update as part of the 2026 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, to be released by November 15, 2026.
Section A: Ontario’s 2026–27 Fiscal Outlook
The province’s 2026–27 deficit is projected to be unchanged from the outlook of $13.8 billion published in the 2026 Budget.
Revenues in 2026–27 are projected to be $232.0 billion, $0.1 billion higher than forecasted in the 2026 Budget.
Program expense in 2026–27 is projected to be $227.1 billion, $0.1 billion higher than forecasted in the 2026 Budget.
Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges in 2026–27 is projected to remain unchanged at $17.2 billion, as forecasted in the 2026 Budget.
The net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 37.7 per cent in 2026–27, consistent with the forecast in the 2026 Budget.
The 2026 Budget included a $1.5 billion reserve in 2026–27, to protect the fiscal outlook against any unforeseen changes in the province’s revenue and expense forecasts. With the release of the 2026–27 First Quarter Finances, the reserve has remained unchanged. The reserve provides prudence in the government’s fiscal framework and is distinct from contingency funds that are set aside for dedicated funding. The reserve can be used to safeguard against any events and uncertainty that may arise, or can be eliminated if not needed as part of year-end projections, supporting the government’s ability to protect the fiscal plan and uphold prudent financial management.
Additionally, the Contingency Fund is maintained to help mitigate expense risks–for example, in cases where health and safety may be compromised, or unforeseen events which may otherwise adversely affect Ontario’s fiscal performance. The government has allocated $0.2 billion from this year’s Contingency Fund, leaving a balance of $1.3 billion for 2026–27.
| Item | 2026 Budget | Current Outlook | In-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 231,856 | 231,996 | 140 |
| Expense — Programs | 226,963 | 227,103 | 140 |
| Expense — Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges | 17,237 | 17,237 | – |
| Total Expense | 244,200 | 244,340 | 140 |
| Surplus/(Deficit) Before Reserve | (12,344) | (12,344) | – |
| Reserve | 1,500 | 1,500 | – |
| Surplus/(Deficit) | (13,844) | (13,844) | – |
Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of June 30, 2026.
Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Revenue
The outlook for revenue in 2026–27 is projected to be $232.0 billion, an increase of $0.1 billion compared to the 2026 Budget. The increase reflects federal funding to provide evacuation support services to First Nation communities affected by spring flooding and other emergencies.
| Item | 2026–27 |
|---|---|
| 2026 Budget Total Revenue | 231,856 |
| Revenue Changes Since the 2026 Budget Government of Canada Transfers | 140 |
| Total Revenue Changes Since the 2026 Budget | 140 |
| 2026–27 First Quarter Finances Total Revenue Outlook | 231,996 |
Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of June 30, 2026.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Additional developments could materially affect the 2026–27 revenue outlook as new information becomes available during and after the end of the 2026–27 fiscal year. These include changes to the economic growth outlook, the results from tax return processing, revenue collections from Ontario‑administered taxes and the earnings of government business enterprises. The government will monitor these developments and provide further details in future fiscal updates.
Expense
Total expense in 2026–27 is projected to be $244.3 billion, $0.1 billion higher than the 2026 Budget projection. In-year expenditure items in the first quarter of 2026 were fully offset through revenues or the Contingency Fund.
| Item | 2026–27 |
|---|---|
| 2026 Budget Total Expense | 244,200 |
| Total Program Expense Changes Since the 2026 Budget — Toronto New Deal Agreement – Shelter Operations and Homelessness | 200 |
| Total Program Expense Changes Since the 2026 Budget — First Nations Emergency Evacuations on behalf of Indigenous Services Canada | 140 |
| Total Program Expense Changes Since the 2026 Budget — Northern Shield Energy Corridor | 14 |
| Total Program Expense Changes Since the 2026 Budget — Support Partner Needs Related to Critical Infrastructure and Priority Projects in Ring of Fire | 6 |
| Total Program Expense Changes Since the 2026 Budget | 360 |
| Total Program Expense Changes Since the 2026 Budget — Drawdown of the Contingency Fund | (220) |
| Total Net Program Expense Changes Since the 2026 Budget | 140 |
| Total Net Program Expense Changes Since the 2026 Budget — Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges Change Since the 2026 Budget | – |
| Total Expense Changes Since the 2026 Budget | 140 |
| 2026–27 First Quarter Finances Total Expense Outlook | 244,340 |
Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of June 30, 2026.
Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Program Expense Update
Total program expense in 2026–27 is projected to be $227.1 billion, $0.1 billion higher than forecasted in the 2026 Budget.
Key changes to program expense projections since the release of the 2026 Budget include:
- $200.0 million as part of the New Deal for Toronto to support shelters and homelessness programs;
- $140.0 million, reflecting federal funding to provide evacuation support services to First Nation communities affected by spring flooding and other emergencies;
- $14.0 million to continue to support the feasibility study for the Northern Shield Energy Corridor, a 3,300 km crude oil pipeline and energy corridor from Alberta to Ontario; and
- $5.7 million for community supports, as part of the continued implementation of the Community Partnership Agreements with the Webequie and Marten Falls First Nations, to unlock the economic benefits of the Ring of Fire.
Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges Expense Update
Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges expense is projected to be $17.2 billion in 2026–27, consistent with the forecast in the 2026 Budget. Interest rates have been within the range anticipated since the 2026 Budget. As a result, Ontario’s cost of borrowing for 2026–27 remains unchanged at 4.1 per cent.
Fiscal Prudence
The Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 requires Ontario’s fiscal plan to incorporate prudence in the form of a reserve, to protect the fiscal outlook against unforeseen changes in the province’s revenue and expenses, including those resulting from Ontario’s economic performance. The 2026 Budget included a reserve of $1.5 billion in 2026–27, which has been maintained as part of the current fiscal outlook.
The Contingency Fund is also maintained, to address expense risks such as circumstances that may impact health and safety or unforeseen events that could adversely affect Ontario’s fiscal performance. The remaining balance of the Contingency Fund is $1.3 billion in 2026–27.
Section B: Ontario’s Economic Outlook
Economic Outlook
In the first calendar quarter of 2026, Ontario's real GDP edged down 0.1 per cent, following a decline of 0.3 per cent in the previous quarter. The first quarter decline was largely due to weaker net trade, which was impacted by heightened external risks, including U.S. tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty. Several key monthly indicators suggest economic growth resumed in the second quarter of 2026.
Since the release of the 2026 Budget, expectations for Ontario’s real GDP growth from private-sector forecasters have, on average, been revised downward for 2026 and 2027. Private-sector forecasters, on average, project Ontario’s real GDP to rise by 0.6 per cent in 2026, below the 1.1 per cent growth projected at the time of the 2026 Budget. The private-sector forecast average for 2027 has been revised down slightly, to 1.7 per cent from 1.8 per cent at the time of the 2026 Budget.
The current private-sector forecast average for Ontario’s nominal GDP growth for 2026 is 3.1 per cent, below the projection of 3.3 per cent at the time of the 2026 Budget. The private-sector forecast average for 2027 has been revised slightly lower, to 3.9 per cent from 4.0 per cent.
Global economic growth has been resilient, despite uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and geopolitical tensions. The International Monetary Fund projects global real GDP to rise by 3.0 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027, compared to the projected increases of 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027 at the time of the 2026 Budget.
In the United States, forecasters anticipate real GDP to increase by 2.1 per cent in 2026, revised down from 2.4 per cent at the time of the 2026 Budget, according to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey, while the forecast for real GDP growth in 2027 eased from 2.1 per cent to 2.0 per cent.
U.S. trade policy and associated uncertainty remain a key risk to Ontario’s economic outlook. Escalating trade tensions could continue to weaken export demand and business investment, dampening economic growth. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could result in further supply-chain disruptions, contributing to volatility in energy prices and inflationary pressures.
Section C: Details of Ontario’s Finances
| Item | 2026–27 2026 Budget | 2026–27 Current Outlook | 2026–27 In-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taxation Revenue — Personal Income Tax | 65,108 | 65,108 | – |
| Taxation Revenue — Sales Tax | 39,871 | 39,871 | – |
| Taxation Revenue — Corporations Tax | 28,618 | 28,618 | – |
| Taxation Revenue — Education Property Tax | 5,981 | 5,981 | – |
| Taxation Revenue — Employer Health Tax | 9,812 | 9,812 | – |
| Taxation Revenue — Ontario Health Premium | 5,518 | 5,518 | – |
| Taxation Revenue — Gasoline Tax | 1,737 | 1,737 | – |
| Taxation Revenue — Land Transfer Tax | 3,785 | 3,785 | – |
| Taxation Revenue — Tobacco Tax | 602 | 602 | – |
| Taxation Revenue — Fuel Tax | 540 | 540 | – |
| Taxation Revenue — Beer, Wine and Spirits Taxes | 262 | 262 | – |
| Taxation Revenue — Electricity Payments in Lieu of Taxes | 350 | 350 | – |
| Taxation Revenue — Ontario Portion of the Federal Cannabis Excise Duty | 405 | 405 | – |
| Taxation Revenue — Other Taxes | 1,043 | 1,043 | – |
| Taxation Revenue — Total | 163,633 | 163,633 | – |
| Government of Canada Transfers — Canada Health Transfer | 22,406 | 22,406 | – |
| Government of Canada Transfers — Canada Social Transfer | 7,000 | 7,000 | – |
| Government of Canada Transfers — Equalization | 406 | 406 | – |
| Government of Canada Transfers — Infrastructure Programs | 1,104 | 1,104 | – |
| Government of Canada Transfers — Labour Market Programs | 1,064 | 1,064 | – |
| Government of Canada Transfers — Social Housing Agreement | 98 | 98 | – |
| Government of Canada Transfers — Other Federal Payments | 7,070 | 7,210 | 140 |
| Government of Canada Transfers — Direct Transfers to Broader Public Sector Organizations | 684 | 684 | – |
| Government of Canada Transfers — Total | 39,831 | 39,971 | 140 |
| Income from Government Business Enterprises — Liquor Control Board of Ontario | 1,896 | 1,896 | – |
| Income from Government Business Enterprises — Ontario Power Generation Inc./Hydro One Ltd. | 1,818 | 1,818 | – |
| Income from Government Business Enterprises — Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation | 2,219 | 2,219 | – |
| Income from Government Business Enterprises — Ontario Cannabis Store | 236 | 236 | – |
| Income from Government Business Enterprises — iGaming Ontario | 294 | 294 | – |
| Income from Government Business Enterprises — Total | 6,462 | 6,462 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Fees, Donations and Other Revenues from Hospitals, School Boards and Colleges | 11,066 | 11,066 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Vehicle and Driver Registration Fees | 1,251 | 1,251 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Miscellaneous Other Non-Tax Revenue | 2,124 | 2,124 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Other Fees and Licences | 2,010 | 2,010 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Sales and Rentals | 2,069 | 2,069 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Reimbursements | 1,278 | 1,278 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Royalties | 311 | 311 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Power Supply Contract Recoveries | 42 | 42 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Interest and Investment Income | 1,779 | 1,779 | – |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue — Total | 21,930 | 21,930 | – |
| Total Revenue | 231,856 | 231,996 | 140 |
Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of June 30, 2026.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
| Ministry Expense | 2026–27 2026 Budget | 2026–27 Current Outlook | 2026–27 In-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness (Base) | 320.9 | 320.9 | – |
| Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness — Demand-Driven Risk Management and Time-Limited Programs | 710.3 | 710.3 | – |
| Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness (Total) | 1,031.2 | 1,031.2 | – |
| Attorney General (Base) | 2,428.8 | 2,428.8 | – |
| Attorney General — Bad Debt Expense | 5.3 | 5.3 | – |
| Attorney General (Total) | 2,434.1 | 2,434.1 | – |
| Board of Internal Economy (Total) | 399.2 | 399.2 | – |
| Children, Community and Social Services (Total) | 21,425.5 | 21,425.5 | – |
| Citizenship and Multiculturalism (Total) | 83.0 | 83.0 | – |
| Colleges, Universities, Research Excellence and Security (Base) | 11,512.4 | 11,512.4 | – |
| Colleges, Universities, Research Excellence and Security — Student Financial Assistance | 2,448.4 | 2,448.4 | – |
| Colleges, Universities, Research Excellence and Security (Total) | 13,960.8 | 13,960.8 | – |
| Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade (Base) | 210.5 | 210.5 | – |
| Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade — Tax Credits for Business Investment and Research and Development | 758.3 | 758.3 | – |
| Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade — Time-Limited Investments | 950.3 | 950.3 | – |
| Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade (Total) | 1,919.1 | 1,919.1 | – |
| Education (Base) | 40,762.1 | 40,762.1 | – |
| Education — Teachers’ Pension Plan | 1,787.0 | 1,787.0 | – |
| Education (Total) | 42,549.1 | 42,549.1 | – |
| Emergency Preparedness and Response — Emergency Preparedness and Response (Base) | 69.9 | 69.9 | – |
| Emergency Preparedness and Response — First Nations Emergency Evacuations on behalf of Indigenous Service Canada | – | 140.0 | 140.0 |
| Emergency Preparedness and Response (Total) | 69.9 | 209.9 | 140.0 |
| Energy and Mines (Base) | 701.1 | 701.1 | – |
| Energy and Mines — Electricity Cost Relief Programs | 6,913.1 | 6,913.1 | – |
| Energy and Mines — High-Speed Internet | 351.1 | 351.1 | – |
| Energy and Mines — Time-Limited Investments | 89.8 | 89.8 | – |
| Energy and Mines (Total) | 8,055.0 | 8,055.0 | – |
| Environment, Conservation and Parks (Total) | 1,191.2 | 1,191.2 | – |
| Executive Offices (Total) | 82.6 | 82.6 | – |
| Finance (Base) | 1,072.1 | 1,072.1 | – |
| Finance — Investment Management Corporation of Ontario | 321.7 | 321.7 | – |
| Finance — Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund | 600.0 | 600.0 | – |
| Finance — Temporary and Other Local Assistance | 17.7 | 17.7 | – |
| Finance — Power Supply Contract Costs | 42.5 | 42.5 | – |
| Finance (Total) | 2,053.9 | 2,053.9 | – |
| Francophone Affairs (Base) | 8.9 | 8.9 | – |
| Francophone Affairs — Time-Limited Investments | 4.4 | 4.4 | – |
| Francophone Affairs (Total) | 13.3 | 13.3 | – |
| Health (Total) | 91,800.0 | 91,812.0 | 12.0 |
| Indigenous Affairs and First Nations Economic Reconciliation(Total) | 179.0 | 184.7 | 5.7 |
| Infrastructure (Base) | 821.0 | 835.0 | 14.0 |
| Infrastructure — Federal-Provincial Infrastructure Programs | 121.6 | 121.6 | – |
| Infrastructure — Waterfront Toronto Revitalization (Port Lands Flood Protection) | 35.0 | 35.0 | – |
| Infrastructure — Municipal Infrastructure Program Investments | 600.0 | 600.0 | – |
| Infrastructure — Realty | 1,655.2 | 1,655.2 | – |
| Infrastructure (Total) | 3,232.7 | 3,246.7 | 14.0 |
| Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development (Base) | 242.0 | 242.0 | – |
| Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development — Co-operative Education Tax Credit | 98.1 | 98.1 | – |
| Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development — Demand-Driven Employment and Training Programs | 1,631.1 | 1,631.1 | – |
| Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development (Total) | 1,971.2 | 1,971.2 | – |
| Long-Term Care (Total) | 9,354.0 | 9,342.0 | (12.0) |
| Municipal Affairs and Housing (Base) | 803.1 | 803.1 | – |
| Municipal Affairs and Housing — Time-Limited Investments | 991.3 | 1,191.3 | 200.0 |
| Municipal Affairs and Housing (Total) | 1,794.3 | 1,994.3 | 200.0 |
| Natural Resources (Base) | 739.5 | 739.5 | – |
| Natural Resources — Emergency Forest Firefighting | 150.0 | 150.0 | – |
| Natural Resources (Total) | 889.5 | 889.5 | – |
| Northern Economic Development and Growth (Total) | 927.9 | 927.9 | – |
| Public and Business Service Delivery and Procurement (Total) | 1,522.1 | 1,522.1 | – |
| Rural Affairs (Total) | 19.3 | 19.3 | – |
| Seniors and Accessibility (Base) | 77.9 | 77.9 | – |
| Seniors and Accessibility — Seniors Tax Credits | 100.2 | 100.2 | – |
| Seniors and Accessibility (Total) | 178.1 | 178.1 | – |
| Solicitor General (Total) | 4,832.3 | 4,832.3 | – |
| Sport (Base) | 63.9 | 63.9 | – |
| Sport — Time-Limited Investments | 221.2 | 221.2 | – |
| Sport (Total) | 285.1 | 285.1 | – |
| Tourism, Culture and Gaming (Base) | 1,201.8 | 1,201.8 | – |
| Tourism, Culture and Gaming — Ontario Cultural Media Tax Credits | 1,046.2 | 1,046.2 | – |
| Tourism, Culture and Gaming (Total) | 2,247.9 | 2,247.9 | – |
| Transportation (Base) | 8,073.1 | 8,073.1 | – |
| Transportation — Federal-Provincial Infrastructure Programs | 556.3 | 556.3 | – |
| Transportation (Total) | 8,629.4 | 8,629.4 | – |
| Treasury Board Secretariat (Base) | 411.0 | 411.0 | – |
| Treasury Board Secretariat — Employee and Pensioner Benefits | 1,921.0 | 1,921.0 | – |
| Treasury Board Secretariat — Operating Contingency Fund | 1,350.0 | 1,136.0 | (214.0) |
| Treasury Board Secretariat — Capital Contingency Fund | 150.0 | 144.3 | (5.7) |
| Treasury Board Secretariat (Total) | 3,832.0 | 3,612.3 | (219.7) |
| Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges | 17,237.2 | 17,237.2 | – |
| Total Expense | 244,200.0 | 244,340.0 | 140.0 |
Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of June 30, 2026.
Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
| Sector | 2026–27 2026 Budget Total Infrastructure Expenditures | 2026–27 Current Outlook Investment in Capital Assets | 2026–27 Current Outlook Transfers and Other Infrastructure Expenditures | 2026–27 Current Outlook Total Infrastructure Expenditures | Change from 2026 Budget Total Infrastructure Expenditures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transportation — Transit | 13,789 | 12,796 | 993 | 13,789 | – |
| Transportation — Provincial Highways | 5,391 | 5,001 | 385 | 5,386 | (5.7) |
| Transportation — Other Transportation, Property and Planning | 261 | 139 | 123 | 261 | – |
| Health — Hospitals | 5,602 | 5,579 | 22 | 5,602 | – |
| Health — Other Health | 1,413 | 183 | 1,229 | 1,413 | – |
| Education | 4,211 | 4,134 | 77 | 4,211 | – |
| Postsecondary Education — Colleges and Other | 701 | 670 | 32 | 701 | – |
| Postsecondary Education — Universities | 202 | – | 202 | 202 | – |
| Social | 583 | 40 | 543 | 583 | – |
| Justice | 1,102 | 1,006 | 96 | 1,102 | – |
| Other Sectors | 5,386 | 3,035 | 2,355 | 5,390 | 3.7 |
| Total Infrastructure Expenditures | 38,641 | 32,583 | 6,056 | 38,639 | (2.0) |
| Less: Other Partner Funding | 1,897 | 1,897 | – | 1,897 | – |
| Total | 36,744 | 30,686 | 6,056 | 36,742 | (2.0) |
Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of June 30, 2026.
Source: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat.
| Item | Actual 2022–23 | Actual 2023–24 | Actual 2024–25 | Interim 2025–26 | Current Outlook 2026–27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 194,431 | 208,975 | 226,161 | 226,609 | 231,996 |
| Expense — Programs | 186,364 | 195,207 | 212,129 | 222,387 | 227,103 |
| Expense — Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges | 13,935 | 14,461 | 15,122 | 16,047 | 17,237 |
| Total Expense | 200,299 | 209,668 | 227,251 | 238,434 | 244,340 |
| Reserve | – | – | – | 500 | 1,500 |
| Surplus/(Deficit) | (5,868) | (693) | (1,090) | (12,326) | (13,844) |
| Net Debt | 399,806 | 409,761 | 427,050 | 459,325 | 485,082 |
| Accumulated Deficit | 246,007 | 246,101 | 247,060 | 259,386 | 273,230 |
| Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices | 1,065,260 | 1,138,592 | 1,197,020 | 1,246,433 | 1,286,319 |
| Primary Household Income | 689,842 | 740,660 | 797,253 | 831,931 | 862,712 |
| Population — July (000s) | 15,156 | 15,632 | 16,145 | 16,258 | 16,099 |
| Net Debt Per Capita (dollars) | 26,380 | 26,212 | 26,451 | 28,252 | 30,131 |
| Household Income Per Capita (dollars) | 45,517 | 47,380 | 49,381 | 51,170 | 53,588 |
| Net Debt as a Per Cent of Revenue | 207.3% | 199.0% | 191.2% | 204.4% | 210.7% |
| Interest as a Per Cent of Revenue | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% |
| Net Debt as a Per Cent of GDP | 37.5% | 36.0% | 35.7% | 36.9% | 37.7% |
| Accumulated Deficit as a Per Cent of GDP | 23.1% | 21.6% | 20.6% | 20.8% | 21.2% |
Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of June 30, 2026.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Section D: Ontario’s 2026–27 Borrowing Program
| Item | 2026–27 2026 Budget | 2026–27 Current Outlook | 2026–27 Change from 2026 Budget |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficit/(Surplus) | 13.8 | 13.8 | – |
| Provincial Investment in Capital Assets | 28.0 | 28.0 | – |
| Amortization of Capital Assets | (10.2) | (10.2) | – |
| Non-Cash and Cash Timing Adjustments | (2.5) | (2.5) | – |
| Net Loans and Investments | 5.2 | 5.2 | – |
| Debt Maturities/Redemptions | 26.9 | 26.9 | – |
| Total Funding Requirement | 61.2 | 61.2 | – |
| Decrease/(Increase) in Short-Term Borrowing | (6.0) | (6.0) | – |
| Increase/(Decrease) in Year-End Cash and Cash Equivalents | (8.0) | (9.0) | (1.0) |
| Total Long-Term Borrowing | 47.2 | 46.2 | (1.0) |
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Source: Ontario Financing Authority.
On March 30, 2026, Ontario issued $1.0 billion, which increased borrowing to $59.6 billion for 2025–26 and reduced the 2026–27 borrowing requirement from $47.2 billion in the 2026 Budget to $46.2 billion.
Green Bonds remain a core component of Ontario’s borrowing program and are an important tool to help finance public transit initiatives, extreme weather-resilient infrastructure, as well as energy efficiency and conservation projects. Ontario remains the largest issuer of Canadian dollar Green Bonds, totalling $24.6 billion issued since 2014–15, with $19.85 billion outstanding.
Interest rates have been within the range forecasted in the 2026 Budget. As a result, Ontario’s cost of borrowing for 2026–27 remains unchanged at 4.1 per cent. Ontario is estimated to pay Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges of $17.2 billion, consistent with the 2026 Budget.
2026–27 Long-Term Borrowing
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Canadian Dollar Issues | 15.5 |
| Foreign Currency Issues | 13.3 |
| Total | 28.8 |
Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. As of August 5, 2026.
Source: Ontario Financing Authority.
Ministry of Finance: www.ontario.ca/finance
For general inquiries regarding the 2026–27 First Quarter Finances, please call or email:
Toll-free English and French inquiries:
Teletypewriter:
Email: FinanceCommunications.fin@ontario.ca
© King’s Printer for Ontario, 2026
Chart Descriptions: Alternative Text for Web Accessibility
Chart 1: Ontario GDP Growth
This stacked bar chart shows private-sector average forecasts in January 2026 and July 2026 for Ontario real GDP growth, GDP inflation and nominal GDP growth in 2026 and 2027. Note that nominal GDP growth is the sum of real GDP growth and GDP inflation.
In January 2026, Ontario’s real GDP was projected to rise by 1.1 per cent in 2026 and nominal GDP to increase by 3.3 per cent. For 2027, real GDP was projected to rise by 1.8 per cent and nominal GDP to grow by 4.0 per cent.
In July 2026, the average of private-sector forecasts projects Ontario’s real GDP to rise by 0.6 per cent in 2026 and nominal GDP to grow by 3.1 per cent. For 2027, real GDP is projected to rise by 1.7 per cent and nominal GDP to increase by 3.9 per cent.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance Survey of Forecasters (January 16, 2026 and July 20, 2026).
Footnotes
- footnote[1] Back to paragraph Includes the estimated cost of tax credit claims for the Regional Opportunities Investment Tax Credit (ROITC), the Ontario Innovation Tax Credit, the Ontario Business-Research Institute Tax Credit and the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit (OMMITC). Amounts in 2026–27 for the ROITC include the wind-down of the credit for expenditures incurred after 2026. The OMMITC costs include costs starting in 2026–27 for the OMMITC enhancement, but not the OMMITC expansion, the impacts of which are reported separately as a revenue decrease.
- footnote[2] Back to paragraph The Ontario Ministry of Long-Term Care total includes expenses incurred by Ontario Health and hospitals for funding for long-term care. These amounts will be consolidated in the total expense of the Ontario Ministry of Health, including $8.0 billion in 2026–27.
- footnote[3] Back to paragraph Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $1,261 million in 2026–27.
- footnote[4] Back to paragraph Includes provincial investment in capital assets of $28.0 billion.
- footnote[5] Back to paragraph Includes $1,261 million in interest capitalized during construction.
- footnote[6] Back to paragraph Includes transfers to municipalities, universities and non-consolidated agencies.
- footnote[7] Back to paragraph Includes high-speed internet infrastructure, government administration, natural resources, and the culture and tourism industries.
- footnote[8] Back to paragraph Other Partner Funding refers to third–party investments, primarily in hospitals, colleges and schools.
- footnote[9] Back to paragraph Includes federal–municipal contributions to provincial infrastructure investments.
- footnote[10] Back to paragraph Beginning in the 2025 Budget, the Total Revenue, Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges (IOD), and Total Expense figures for all years have been restated to report interest and investment income as part of revenue and separate from IOD. These changes are fiscally neutral.
- footnote[11] Back to paragraph Actual results for 2023–24 are restated to present an accounting policy change implemented in the Public Accounts of Ontario 2024–2025 regarding the calculation of accrued Corporations Tax Revenue.
- footnote[12] Back to paragraph Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $694 million in 2022–23, $978 million in 2023–24, $1,221 million in 2024–25, $1,309 million in 2025–26 and $1,261 million in 2026–27.
- footnote[13] Back to paragraph For 2026–27 and future years, Net Debt reflects financial assets less financial liabilities and is aligned with Net Financial Liabilities, as will be reported in the Public Accounts of Ontario 2026–2027. A one-year restatement will be provided in the Public Accounts of Ontario 2026–2027.
- footnote[14] Back to paragraph Population figures are for July 1 of the fiscal year indicated (i.e., for 2026–27, the population on July 1, 2026 is shown).
- footnote[15] Back to paragraph Starting in the 2025 Budget, Amortization of Capital Assets will be reflected in a separate line in this table to reflect the increasing impact of the capital plan on the borrowing program.