Economic accounts

Highlights

Ontario's real GDP up in Q4

Ontario GDP, second quarter 2021
Accessible description of chart 1: Ontario GDP, second quarter 2021
  • Ontario's real gross domestic product (GDP) advanced by 1.5% in the fourth quarter (October, November, December) of 2021, following an increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter.
  • The gain in the fourth quarter was supported by increases in exports and business investment and an accumulation of inventories.
  • Nominal GDP advanced 3.1%, after increasing 2.8% in the third quarter.
  • Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, rose 1.5% in the fourth quarter.
  • Economic production, measured on an industry basis, increased 1.7% in the fourth quarter. Output in goods-producing industries (+2.2%) and service-producing industries (+1.6%) advanced in the quarter.

Expenditure details

Real GDP advances in Q4

Ontario's real GDP increased 1.5% in the fourth quarter, after a 1.4% advance in the third quarter. As of the fourth quarter, Ontario's real GDP was 0.1% above the pre-pandemic level in 2019Q4.

Real GDP growth
Accessible description of chart 2: Real GDP Growth

Household consumption spending edged up 0.1%, after increasing 5.4% in the third quarter. Spending on services (+0.7%) was largely offset by declines in spending on durable (-1.4%), semi-durable (-1.1%) and non-durable (-0.3%) goods.

Total business investment spending rose 0.8% after declining 5.8% in the third quarter. Investment in non-residential structures (+2.7%), machinery and equipment (+1.2%) and residential construction (+0.4%) increased, while investment in intellectual property products (-1.6%) declined in the quarter.

Real GDP change by expenditure component
Accessible description of chart 3: Real GDP change by expenditure component

Exports increased by 2.4% in the fourth quarter, while imports were 4.1% higher. International exports rose 2.9%, while international imports rose 5.3%. Interprovincial exports (+1.5%) and imports (+0.2%) both increased in the quarter.

Businesses accumulated $8.2 billion worth of inventories in the fourth quarter, after a $4.0 billion draw down in the previous quarter.

Real export and import growth
Accessible description of chart 4: Real export and import growth

Income details

Nominal GDP rises

Ontario's nominal GDP increased 3.1% in the fourth quarter, following a 2.8% gain in the third quarter.

Nominal GDP growth
Accessible description of chart 5: Nominal GDP growth

Compensation of employees, which includes both wages and salaries and supplementary labour income, increased 2.1%, after rising 3.2% in the third quarter.

Net operating surplus of corporations rose 6.0%, following an 8.5% decrease in the third quarter.

Nominal GDP change by income component
Accessible description of chart 6: Nominal GDP change by income component

Net mixed income, which is comprised of farm income, unincorporated business income and rental income, increased 0.2%, after declining 0.3% in the previous quarter.

Compensation of employees growth
Accessible description of chart 7: Compensation of employees growth

Price details

Economy-wide prices

Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, rose 1.5% in the fourth quarter following a 1.3% increase in the third quarter.

Economy-wide price growth
Accessible description of chart 8: Economy-wide price growth

Prices for household consumption expenditures rose 1.2%, following a 1.2% increase in the third quarter. Prices were higher for several expenditure components, including gasoline and food.

Business investment prices increased 3.0%, following a 2.9% increase in the third quarter. Non-residential construction (+2.1%) and residential construction (+4.7%) prices were higher in the quarter.

Price change by expenditure component
Accessible description of chart 9: Price change by expenditure component

Export prices increased by 1.7%, following a 2.4% increase in the third quarter, while import prices increased 1.5%, following a 3.9% increase in the third quarter.

Export and import price growth
Accessible description of chart 10: Export and import price growth

Industry details

GDP by industry

Ontario real GDP, measured as value-added by industry, increased 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021. Output in the goods-producing industries advanced 2.2%, while service industry output increased 1.6%.

Real GDP growth by industry
Accessible description of chart 11: Real GDP growth by industry

Manufacturing output rose 4.0% in the quarter, led by a strong rise in automotive production (+12.1%). Food and beverage (+3.7%), primary and fabricated metal (+3.5%) and wood product and furniture (+6.4%) manufacturing output also increased in the quarter.

Construction output was steady in the quarter as an increase in non-residential structures and engineering (+2.2%) was offset by a decline in residential construction (-3.0%).

Real GDP change by industry
Accessible description of chart 12: Real GDP change by industry

Primary industry output was 4.3% higher, as agriculture and forestry (+7.8%) and mining (+0.5%) output increased.

Utilities output declined 1.3%, following a 4.0% increase in the third quarter.

Service-producing industries output rose 1.6%, following a 2.8% increase in the third quarter. Gains in the fourth quarter were widespread, led by professional and administrative services (+2.2%), real estate and leasing (+1.7%), wholesale trade (+3.2%) and finance and insurance (+1.4%).

Real GDP change by manufacturing industry
Accessible description of chart 13: Real GDP change by manufacturing industry

Jurisdictional comparisons

Ontario growth in context

Canadian real GDP rose 1.6% in the fourth quarter of 2021, following an increase of 1.3% in the third quarter. The fourth quarter increase was driven by business investment (+2.0%), exports (+3.2%) and an accumulation of inventories. As of the fourth quarter, Canada's real GDP was 0.1% above its level in 2019Q4.

Canadian real GDP growth
Accessible description of chart 14: Canadian real GDP growth

Quebec's real GDP increased 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2021, matching the third quarter gain. As of the fourth quarter, Quebec's real GDP was 1.4% above its level in 2019Q4.

Quebec Real GDP growth
Accessible description of chart 15: Quebec Real GDP growth

In the U.S., real GDP increased 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021, following a 0.6% increase in the third quarter. As of the fourth quarter, U.S. real GDP was 3.1% above its level in 2019Q4.

U.S. Real GDP growth
Accessible description of chart 16: U.S. Real GDP growth

Recent economic developments

Global economic developments

Economic recovery continues

In the euro area, real GDP increased 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2021, after increasing by 2.3% in the third quarter, as rising COVID-19 cases prompted public health restrictions and weighed on consumer spending. Within the euro area, fourth quarter real GDP declined in a few countries, including Germany (-0.3%).

Real GDP growth
Accessible description of chart 17: Real GDP growth

In the United Kingdom, real GDP grew by 1.0% in the fourth quarter.

Japan's economy rebounded in the fourth quarter with real GDP up 1.1% led by stronger household consumption. In China, real GDP expanded by 1.6% in the fourth quarter.

U.S. real GDP grew by 1.7% in the fourth quarter, led by contributions from inventory accumulation, exports and personal consumption expenditures.

U.S. Consumer price index
Accessible description of chart 18: U.S. Consumer price index

Inflation continues to accelerate in the U.S. like in many countries around the world. In February, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 7.9% year-over-year and CPI excluding food and energy rose 6.4% year-over-year, with both indices rising at the fastest pace since 1982.

U.S. non-farm payroll employment rose by 431,000 in March however it is still 1.6 million or 1.0% below its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. The U.S. unemployment rate reached 3.6% in March, slightly above the pre-pandemic rate of 3.5%.

U.S. Labour market
Accessible description of chart 19: U.S. Labour market

Central banks tighten policy

Elevated consumer price inflation has prompted key central banks to tighten monetary policies. In March, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 0.25% to 0.50%. Additionally, the Fed ended its monthly net asset purchases and expects to announce a plan to reduce its asset holdings at an upcoming meeting.

Government of Canada 10-year bond rates
Accessible description of chart 20: Government of Canada 10-year bond rate

The Bank of England also raised its policy interest rate in March, increasing from 0.50% to 0.75%, following increases in December and February. The Bank of England ceased further asset purchases after reaching its target level of £895 billion in December 2021.

The European Central Bank (ECB) left its policy interest rates unchanged at its March meeting. However, the ECB  now expects net asset purchases under the Asset Purchase Programme to cease in the third quarter of 2022.

Oil prices and the Canadian dollar
Accessible description of chart 21: Oil prices and the Canadian dollar

The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate from 0.25% to 0.50% in March and has signaled further increases in the coming months. The Bank of Canada ended its net asset purchases in October 2021.

Stock market indices
Accessible description of chart 22: Stock market indices

Longer-term government bond yields have increased in anticipation of monetary policy tightening. The Canadian 10-year government bond yield was near 2.2% in mid-March, up from 1.4% at the end of December. The Canadian dollar traded at around 78 cents U.S. in March, little changed from December.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is a major source of uncertainty that is creating volatility in financial and commodity markets. The WTI crude oil price rose to over US$130 per barrel in intra-day trading in early March before easing slightly, but remained over US$100 per barrel near the end of March, up from US$75 per barrel at the end of December. Canada's S&P/TSX Composite index was up 2.7% by mid-March compared to the end of December, while the U.S. S&P 500 index was down 6.4% over the same period.

Employment

Labour market rebound

Ontario's employment increased by 35,100 jobs in March, following a gain of 194,300 in February. As of March 2022, employment was 228,300 (+3.0%) above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level.

Ontario's labour force
Accessible description of chart 23: Ontario's labour force

Compared to February 2020, employment increased in both full-time (+203,100) jobs and part time (+25,100) jobs.

Most of the increase in employment since February 2020 was in the private sector (+199,900), while public sector employment (+88,600) also increased. Self-employment (-60,300) declined over the period.

Employment change since June 2020
Accessible description of chart 24: Employment change since June 2020

There were notable employment increases in both service-producing (+175,800) and goods-producing (+52,600) industries since February 2020.

In March 2022, the unemployment rate was 5.3%, which compares to a rate of 5.5% in February 2020.

Ontario's employment and unemployment rate
Accessible description of chart 25: Ontario's employment and unemployment rate

Note: More information on Ontario labour market performance can be found in the Quarterly Ontario Employment Report at:
https://www.ontario.ca/document/ontario-employment-reports

Consumer and business activity

Retail and wholesale trade and manufacturing sales

Ontario retail sales increased 3.1% in January, following a 1.7% decline in December. The increase in January was led by motor vehicle and parts dealers and building material and garden equipment dealers.

Retail sales
Accessible description of chart 26: Retail sales

Wholesale trade increased by 3.0% in January, following a 1.3% increase in December. The increase in the month was led by building material and supplies (+13.5%), machinery and equipment (+5.1%) and personal and household goods (+6.1%).

Wholesale trade
Accessible description of chart 27: Wholesale trade

Manufacturing sales decreased by 1.3% in January, following a 1.6% increase in December. The decline in the month was led by transportation equipment (-11.6%) and primary metals (-7.6%). The decline was partially offset by an increase in petroleum and coal products (+7.9%).

Manufacturing sales
Accessible description of chart 28: Manufacturing sales

Housing

Housing market overview

Sales of existing Ontario homes increased by 6.3% in February, following a 1.3% increase in January. The number of existing homes newly listed for sale in Ontario increased by 34.1% in February, after declining 21.5% in January.

Home Resales
Accessible description of chart 29: Home Resales

Ontario average home resale prices continued to trend upwards, increasing 1.7% in February to $1,038,257.

Home Resale Prices
Accessible description of chart 30: Home Resale Prices

Housing starts in Ontario increased 61.5% in February, following two consecutive monthly declines.

Housing starts
Accessible description of chart 31: Housing Starts

In focus

2021 year in review

Ontario real GDP rose by 4.3% in 2021, following a 5.1% decline in 2020.

Real GDP Growth
Accessible description of chart 32: Real GDP Growth

Household consumption rose 4.1% in 2021 following a 7.8% decline in 2020. Spending was higher for semi-durable goods (+14.5%), durable goods (+5.7%), services (+3.4%) and non-durable goods (+2.3%).

Total business investment advanced 12.0%, following a 0.9% increase in 2020, driven by strong growth in residential structures (+16.0%) and machinery and equipment (+14.0%). Investment was also higher in non-residential structures (+3.9%) and intellectual property products (+7.2%).

Exports increased 0.8%, after declining 7.3% in 2020.  An increase in interprovincial exports (+3.7%) was partially offset by lower international exports (-0.5%). Imports increased 6.0%, following an 8.9% decline in 2020.

Nominal GDP rebounded 12.0% in 2021, following a 2.8% decline in 2020.

Nominal GDP Growth
Accessible description of chart 33: Nominal GDP Growth

Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, rose 7.4% in 2021, following a 2.3% increase in 2020.

Ontario real GDP, measured as value-added by industry, increased 4.6% in 2021, following a 5.0% decline in 2020.

Real GDP Growth by Industry
Accessible description of chart 34: Real GDP Growth by Industry

Appendix

Appendix: OEA release dates

The Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 states that the quarterly Ontario Economic Accounts should be released within 45 days of the Statistics Canada release of the National Income and Expenditure Accounts.

In compliance with the legislation, the OEA will be released according to the following schedule:

Reference periodExpected Statistics Canada release of National Income and Expenditure AccountsCorresponding deadline for the release of Ontario Economic Accounts
First Quarter
(January-March) 2022
May 31, 2022By July 15, 2022
Second Quarter
(April-June) 2022
August 31, 2022By October 14, 2022
Third Quarter
(July-September) 2022
November 29, 2022By January 13, 2023
Fourth Quarter
(October-December) 2022
February 28, 2023By April 14, 2023

Appendix: Structure of the Ontario economy

Per cent share of Nominal GDP, 2020
Accessible description of chart 35: Per cent share of nominal GDP, 2020

Appendix: How GDP is measured

The Ontario Economic Accounts provide measurements of GDP using three different methodologies, by expenditure, income and industry.

The GDP by expenditure approach defines GDP as the aggregate of all expenditures on final consumption, gross capital formation and net trade by consumers, governments and businesses that occur within Ontario's economy over a given time period. This measurement of GDP can also be defined as the sum of consumer spending, gross investment, government spending and net trade.

The GDP by income approach equates GDP to the total income earned through contributions to production within Ontario's economy by labour and capital over a given time period. That is, GDP is the sum of all wages and salaries paid to employees, the gross operating surplus of businesses, gross mixed income and indirect taxes less subsidies.

The GDP by industry approach measures GDP by calculating the total output of the goods and services producing industries within Ontario's economy and subtracting the cost of intermediate inputs used in final production. This approach can also be referred to as the value-added approach as it quantifies the additional value generated by industries through the production of final products within the economy.

Chart 36: GDP approach on expenditure, income and production

Appendix: GDP measurement methods
Accessible description of chart 36: Appendix: GDP measurement methods

For a full list of definitions used in the Ontario Economic Accounts, please see Statistics Canada's System of Macroeconomic Accounts Glossary.

List of data tables

View the related data tables at Ontario's Open Data Catalogue


Accessible image descriptions:

Chart 1: Ontario GDP, Fourth Quarter 2021

The chart indicates the per cent change in real and nominal GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021. Real GDP increased by 1.5% and nominal GDP increased 3.1% in the quarter.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 2: Real GDP growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario's quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2021. Ontario has experienced real GDP growth over the entire period up until the first quarter of 2020 when real growth decreased by 1.4% followed by a steeper 11.9% decline in the second quarter. Real GDP rebounded by 9.8% in the third quarter of 2020 followed by smaller gains of 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2020, and 1.2% in the first quarter of 2021. In the second quarter of 2021, real GDP declined by 1.4%. In the third quarter of 2021, real GDP increased by 1.4%, followed by a 1.5% increase in the fourth quarter.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 3: Real GDP change by expenditure component

The horizontal bar chart depicts the per cent change in Ontario's real GDP and its components for the fourth quarter of 2021. Real GDP rose by 1.5% in the quarter, with increases in household consumption (+0.1%), business investment (+0.8%), government spending (+0.7%), exports (+2.4%) and imports (+4.1%).  

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 4: Real export and import growth

The bar chart shows the quarterly per cent change in real exports and imports from the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2021. Exports increased by 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2021, after increasing 1.2% in the third quarter. Imports increased 4.1% in the fourth quarter, after decreasing 1.2% in the third quarter.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 5: Nominal GDP growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario's quarterly per cent nominal GDP growth from the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2021. Ontario has experienced nominal GDP growth over the entire period, except for the first two quarters of 2020. Nominal GDP declined 12.0% in the second quarter of 2020, following a decrease of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2020. This was followed by a 12.6% rebound in the third quarter of 2020, followed by more modest in the proceeding quarters. In the fourth quarter of 2021, nominal GDP increased 3.1%.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 6: Nominal GDP change by income component

The horizontal bar chart depicts the per cent change in nominal GDP and its components for the fourth quarter of 2021. Nominal GDP advanced 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2021. Net operating surplus (+6.0%), compensation of employees (+2.1%) and net mixed income (+0.2%) increased in the quarter.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 7: Compensation of employees growth

The bar chart shows Ontario's quarterly growth of employee compensation in per cent from the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2021. Compensation of employees has risen in every quarter over the period, except for the first and second quarters of 2020. Compensation of employees decreased by 8.0% in the second quarter of 2020, after declining 0.9% in the first quarter of 2020. This was followed by an 8.3% rebound in the third quarter and smaller gains in the proceeding quarters. In the fourth quarter of 2021, compensation of employees rose 2.1%.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 8: Economy-wide price growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario's quarterly growth of economy-wide prices in per cent from the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2021. Economy-wide prices decreased 0.2% in both the first and second quarters of 2020.  This was followed by gains between 1.3% and 2.5% in the next six quarters. In the fourth quarter of 2021, prices rose 1.5%.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 9: Price change by expenditure component

The horizontal bar chart shows the per cent change in prices by expenditure component for the fourth quarter of 2021. Prices increased for business investment (+3.0%), exports (+1.7%), imports (+1.5%) and household consumption (+1.2%).

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 10: Export and import price growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario's quarterly growth of export and import prices in per cent from the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2021.  Export prices increased 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021, following a 2.4% increase in the third quarter. Import prices increased 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021, following a 3.9% increase.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 11: Real GDP growth by industry

The bar chart depicts Ontario's quarterly growth of real GDP by industry in per cent from the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2021. Ontario real GDP increased by 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021, matching third quarter growth. Real GDP by industry has grown over the entire period, except the first two quarters of 2020 and the second quarter of 2021. The strongest gain was recorded in the third quarter of 2020 (+9.9%).

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 12: Real GDP change by industry

The horizontal bar chart illustrates the per cent change in real GDP by industry for the fourth quarter of 2021. The output of all industries increased 1.7% in the quarter. Output increased in goods-producing industries (+2.2%), with industry changes as follows: primary (+4.3%); manufacturing (+4.0%); construction (0.0%) and utilities (-1.3%); and. Output in the service industries increased 1.6%, including industry changes as follows: other services (+3.5%); wholesale trade (+3.2%); professional and administrative services (+2.2%); real estate, rental and leasing (+1.7%); finance and insurance (+1.4%); retail trade (+0.6%) and  health, education and public administration (+0.1%).

*Other services include transportation and warehousing; information and cultural; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; management of companies and enterprises; and other services.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 13: Real GDP change by manufacturing industry

The horizontal bar chart shows the per cent change in real GDP by the manufacturing industry for the fourth quarter of 2021. In total, output by manufacturing industries increased 4.0% in the quarter. The change in output of each manufacturing industry is as follows: transportation equipment (+9.5%); textile, clothing and leather (+9.4%); other manufacturing (+7.9%); wood and furniture (+6.4%); food, beverage and tobacco (+3.7%); primary and fabricated metal (+3.5%); electrical and electronic (+3.0%); plastic and rubber (+2.4%); chemical and petroleum (+1.6%); machinery (+0.7%) and paper and printing (-0.7%).

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 14: Canadian real GDP growth

The bar chart illustrates Canada's quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2021. Canada has experienced real GDP growth over the entire period up until the first quarter of 2020 when real growth decreased by 2.2% followed by a steeper 11.0% decline in the second quarter. Real GDP rebounded by 9.0% in the third quarter, followed by a 2.2% increase in the fourth quarter of 2020, and a 1.2% advance in the first quarter of 2021. Real GDP declined 0.9% in the second quarter of 2021 before increasing 1.3% in the third quarter and 1.6% in the fourth quarter.

Source: Statistics Canada.

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Chart 15: Quebec Real GDP growth

The bar chart illustrates Quebec's quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2021. Quebec has experienced real GDP growth over the entire period, with the exception of the first and second quarters of 2020. Quebec real GDP declined 11.7% in the second quarter of 2020, following a decrease of 3.3% in the first quarter. Real GDP rebounded by 12.8% in the third quarter, followed by more modest gains in the following quarters. Real GDP increased 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Source: Institut de la statistique du Queábec.

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Chart 16: U.S. Real GDP growth

The bar chart illustrates the U.S.'s quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2021. The U.S. has experienced real GDP growth over the entire period up until the first quarter of 2020 when real growth decreased by 1.3% followed by a steeper 8.9% decline in the second quarter. Real GDP rebounded by 7.5% in the third quarter of 2020 followed by more modest gains in the following quarters. Real GDP increased 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Chart 17: Real GDP growth

This bar chart shows quarterly percentage changes in real GDP for the U.S., the euro area, the United Kingdom, Japan, and China for the third and fourth quarter of 2021. U.S. real GDP increased 0.6% in the third quarter and 1.7% in the fourth quarter. Euro area real GDP increased 2.3% in the thrid and 0.3% in the fourth quarter. Real GDP in the United Kingdom increased 1.0% in the third and fourth quarter. Japan's real GDP declined 0.7% in the third quarter and increased 1.1% in the fourth quarter. China's real GDP advanced 0.7% in the third quarter and increased 1.6% in the fourth quarter.

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, U.K. Office for National Statistics, Cabinet Office of Japan, and National Bureau of Statistics of China.

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Chart 18: U.S. Consumer Price Index

TThis line chart shows year-over-year percentage changes in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) from January 2018 to February 2022. Total and core CPI year-over-year growth was near 2% from January 2018 to March 2020 and then was weaker than 2% for the rest of 2020. Total and core CPI year-over-year growth rose above 2% in early 2021. In February 2022, total CPI increased 7.9% year-over-year and core CPI increased 6.4% year-over-year.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Chart 19: U.S. labour market

This chart shows the U.S. employment level in millions and unemployment rate in per cent from January 2018 to March 2022. The employment level steadily rose from 147.6 million in January 2018 to 152.5 million in February 2020. Employment then declined to 130.2 million by April 2020 before rising to 150.9 million by March 2022.

The unemployment rate declined from 4.0% in January 2018 to 3.5% in February 2020. It then rose to 14.7% in April 2020 before gradually easing to 3.6% in March 2022.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Chart 20: Government of Canada 10-year bond rate

This line chart shows rates for Government of Canada 10-year bonds from January 2018 to mid-March 2022. The rate was around 2.0% throughout 2018 and then declined to a low of 0.4% in August 2020. The rate then rapidly increased to a peak of 1.6% in mid-March 2021 before falling to about 1.2% in August and September.  The rate rose to about 2.3% in mid-March 2022.

Source: Bank of Canada.

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Chart 21: Oil prices and the Canadian Dollar

The line chart shows the daily West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price ($US per barrel) and Canadian dollar exchange rate (cents U.S.) between January 2018 and March 2022. The Canadian dollar declined from over 80 cents U.S. in January 2018 to 77 cents U.S. by the end of 2019 before sharply declining to below 70 cents U.S. by March 2020. The Canadian dollar traded at around 78 cents U.S. in March 2022, little changed from December 2021. 

WTI oil prices rose to a peak US$77 per barrel in June 2018, before declining to around US$45 per barrel at the end of 2018. Prices trended up slightly in 2019 to about US$60 per barrel in December before declining sharply and briefly reaching below US$10 per barrel in late April 2020. The WTI crude oil price rose to about $120 per barrel early March 2022 before easing slightly, but remained over US$100 per barrel near the end of March, up from US$75 per barrel at the end of December 2021.

Sources: Bank of Canada and U.S. Energy Information Administration.

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Chart 22: Stock market indices

The line chart shows the daily value of the S&P 500, Nikkei, S&P/TSX Composite and Euro Stoxx 50 stock indexes from January 2018 to March 2022. All are indexed to January 4, 2018 equaling 100. All indices trended upwards in 2019 and early 2020, peaking in late February 2020, before declining sharply and reaching a trough in March 2020. All indices have recovered strongly and are well above their February 2020 peaks, particularly the S&P 500.

Sources: Yahoo! Finance and STOXX.

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Chart 23: Ontario's labour force

The chart indicates that Ontario has added 228,300 net jobs since February 2020 and that the unemployment rate was 5.3% in March 2022.

Source: Statistics Canada.

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Chart 24: Employment change since June 2020

The bar chart illustrates the breakdown in the change in employment measured in thousands of jobs between February 2020 and March 2022. Total employment rose by 228,300 net new jobs. Changes were as follows: private sector, a gain of 199,900 jobs; public sector, a gain of 88,600 jobs; self-employed, a decrease of 60,300 jobs; full-time, a gain of 203,100 jobs; part-time, a gain of 25,100 jobs; goods, a gain of 52,600 jobs; and services, a gain of 175,800 jobs.

Number may not add due to rounding.

Source: Statistics Canada.

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Chart 25: Ontario's Employment and Unemployment rate

The chart shows Ontario's monthly employment level as a shaded area and unemployment rate as a line from January 2019 to March 2022. The unemployment rate trended down from 5.9% in early 2019 to 5.5% in February 2020 and had increased to 13.5% in May 2020 and has since trended down to 7.5% in March 2021 before rising to 9.3% in May 2021 and declining to 5.3% in March 2022. Employment increased steadily from about 7.3 million in January 2019 to about 7.5 million in February 2020. Employment declined to 6.4 million in May 2020 before rising throughout 2020 and 2021, and reaching 7.7 million March 2022.

Source: Statistics Canada

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Chart 26: Retail sales

The line chart shows Ontario's retail sales in billions of dollars from January 2018 to January 2022. Ontario's retail sales have trended upwards from $18.6 billion in January 2018 to $19.6 billion in February 2020. There was a sharp decline to $12.5 billion in April 2020.  This was followed by a sharp rebound in May and June of 2020. Retail sales increased to $21.8 billion in March 2021. In January retail sales were $21.6 billion.

Source: Statistics Canada.

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Chart 27: Wholesale trade

The line chart shows Ontario's wholesale trade in billions of dollars from January 2018 to January 2022. Ontario's wholesale trade has trended upwards from $31.9 billion in January 2018 to $34.6 billion in February 2020.  There was a sharp decline to $22.9 billion in April 2020, followed by a sharp rebound between May 2020 and July 2020. Wholesale trade increased to $40.1 billion in January 2022.

Source: Statistics Canada.

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Chart 28: Manufacturing sales

The line chart shows Ontario's manufacturing sales in billions of dollars from January 2018 to January 2022. Ontario's manufacturing sales have fluctuated over the period, largely remaining between $24 billion and $27 billion. Manufacturing sales sharply declined to $13.9 billion in April followed by a sharp rebound to $26.0 billion in July 2020.  Manufacturing sales have fluctuated since and were $27.7 billion in January 2022.

Source: Statistics Canada.

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Chart 29: Home resales

The combination line and bar chart shows Ontario's home resales in both thousands of units (right axis) and per cent change (left axis) from January 2020 to February 2022. Home resales declined in March and April 2020, before rebounding strongly in May, June, and July 2020. Sales continued to trend upwards, peaking at about 28,300 in March 2021. This was followed by a declined to about 19,800 in August 2021. Sales have since trended up to about 23,700 in February 2022.

Source: Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

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Chart 30: Home resale prices

The combination line and bar chart shows the average resale price on an Ontario home in thousands of dollars (right axis) and per cent change (left axis) from January 2020 to November 2021. The average resale price was $674,900 in February 2020 and declined to $572,900 in April 2020. Since, the average price has trended higher and was $1,038,300 in February 2022.

Source: Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

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Chart 31: Housing starts

The line shows Ontario's housing starts in units (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) from January 2018 to February 2022. Ontario's housing starts were volatile over the period. Starts reached a high of 131,000 in March and November 2021. There were 105,000 housing starts in February 2022.

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

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Chart 32: Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario's annual per cent real GDP growth from 2011 to 2021. Ontario experienced real GDP growth over the entire period up until 2020 when real GDP declined by 5.1%. In 2021, real GDP increased 4.3%.

Source: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 33: Nominal GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario's annual per cent real GDP growth from 2011 to 2021. Ontario experienced real GDP growth over the entire period up until 2020 when real GDP declined by 5.1%. In 2021, real GDP increased 4.3%.

Source: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 34: Real GDP Growth by Industry

The bar chart illustrates Ontario's annual per cent real GDP growth from 2011 to 2021 for goods and service producing industries. The goods sector experienced growth over the entire period up until 2020 when real GDP declined by 5.1%. In 2021, goods sector real GDP increased 4.5%. The service sector experienced growth over the entire period up until 2020 when real GDP declined by 4.9%. In 2021, service sector real GDP increased 4.6%.

Source: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 35: Appendix, structure of the Ontario economy

This pie chart shows the percent share of nominal GDP by industry for 2020. Goods-producing industries accounted for 22.0% of Ontario's nominal GDP with industry shares as follows: manufacturing (10.4%); construction (7.5%); utilities (2.0%) and primary industries (2.2%). Services-producing industries accounted for 78.0% of Ontario's nominal GDP with industry shares as follows: real estate, rental and leasing (14.0%); health and education (13.2%); wholesale and retail trade (10.7%); finance and insurance (10.4%); public administration (7.7%); transportation and warehousing (3.3%); information and culture (4.0%) and other services (14.7%).

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Statistics Canada

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Chart 36: Appendix, GDP measurement methods

  • Expenditure Approach
    • Sum of expenditures of all sectors of the economy
    • Consumer Spending + Investment + Government Spending + Exports – Imports
  • Income Approach
    • Sum of all incomes
    • Wage and Salaries + Profits + Mixed Incomes + Indirect taxes – Subsidies
  • Production Approach (GDP by Industry)
    • Sum of value added in all industry sectors
    • Output of Goods Producing Industries + Output of Services Producing Industries – Intermediate Inputs

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