Ontario Economic Accounts
Learn about Ontario's economic performance and outlook for the second quarter of 2023.
View the related data tables at Ontario's Open Data Catalogue.
Data TablesHighlights
- Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) advanced 0.2% in the second quarter (April, May, June) of 2023, after increasing 0.8% in the first quarter.
- Second quarter growth was supported by higher exports and household spending.
- Nominal GDP rose 1.3%, after increasing 1.2% in the previous quarter.
- Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, increased 1.2% in the second quarter.
- Economic production, measured on an industry basis, increased 0.3% in the second quarter with gains in both the goods (+1.0%) and service (+0.1%) sectors.
| Component | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 5.2 | 3.7 | 0.4 | (0.2) | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Nominal GDP | 10.3 | 9.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Expenditure details
Ontario’s real GDP increased 0.2% in the second quarter of 2023, after advancing 0.8% in the first quarter. As of the second quarter, Ontario’s real GDP was 4.9% above the pre-pandemic level in 2019 Q4.
Household consumption spending increased 0.2%, following a 1.3% gain in the previous quarter. Spending on semi-durables (+0.5%), non-durables (+0.4%) and services (+0.2%) advanced, while durable spending (−0.4%) declined.
Total business investment edged down 0.2% in the second quarter. Investment in residential construction (−1.8%) declined, while investment was higher in non-residential structures (+2.4%), machinery and equipment (+0.6%) and intellectual property products (+0.5%).
Exports (+2.6%) and imports (+2.4%) advanced in the second quarter. International exports (+4.5%) and imports (+2.2%) both increased. Interprovincial exports were 1.1% lower, while interprovincial imports rose 3.1% in the quarter.
Businesses accumulated $6.3 billion worth of inventories in the second quarter, down from an accumulation of $6.8 billion in the previous quarter.
| Component | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 5.2 | 3.7 | 0.4 | (0.2) | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Household consumption | 4.4 | 6.2 | (0.5) | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| Business investment | 10.4 | (7.5) | (3.4) | (1.2) | (0.9) | (0.2) |
| Government | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | (0.5) | 0.5 |
| Exports | 1.3 | 4.8 | 0.9 | (0.9) | 3.8 | 2.6 |
| Imports | 5.7 | 4.4 | (0.4) | (3.5) | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Investment in inventories ($ billions) | 3.6 | 13.5 | 20.5 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 6.3 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Income details
Ontario’s nominal GDP increased 1.3% in the second quarter, after increasing 1.2% in the first quarter.
Compensation of employees, which includes both wages and salaries and supplementary labour income, increased 2.3%, after rising 2.2% in the first quarter.
Net operating surplus of corporations declined 4.8%, the fourth consecutive quarterly decline.
Net mixed income, which is comprised of farm income, unincorporated business income and rental income, increased 2.8%, following a 2.7% increase in the previous quarter.
| Component | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | 10.3 | 9.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Compensation of employees | 9.2 | 9.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Net operating surplus | 13.7 | 4.3 | (5.7) | (7.3) | (6.9) | (4.8) |
| Net mixed income | 6.2 | 11.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Price details
Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, increased 1.2% in the second quarter, following a 0.4% increase in the first quarter.
Prices for household consumption expenditures rose 0.9%, following a 0.8% increase in the first quarter.
Business investment prices increased 1.5%, following a 0.2% increase in the previous quarter. Prices for residential construction (+2.5%), intellectual property products (+1.0%), non-residential construction (+0.6%) and machinery and equipment (+0.6%) all increased in the second quarter.
Export prices (−0.5%) and import prices (−0.3%) both declined in the quarter.
| Component | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 4.9 | 5.3 | (0.3) | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Household consumption | 2.8 | 6.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Business investment | 9.8 | 8.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| Exports | 5.6 | 8.8 | (0.1) | 1.3 | 0.3 | (0.5) |
| Imports | 4.2 | 11.6 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 0.3 | (0.3) |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Industry details
Ontario real GDP, measured as value-added by industry, increased 0.3% in the second quarter of 2023. Increases were observed in both goods-producing output (+1.0%) and service sector output (+0.1%).
Manufacturing output increased 2.9% in the quarter. Transportation equipment output rose 8.6%, largely due to gains in automotive manufacturing (+9.1%).
Utilities output increased 2.2%, driven higher by electric power (+2.9%) production. Natural gas, water, and other production edged up 0.2%.
Primary industry output was 1.1% lower, as agriculture output declined 3.6%. This decline was partially offset by increased mining output (+2.2%).
Service industry output edged up 0.1% in the quarter. Higher output in real estate, rental and leasing (+1.3%) and educational services (+1.3%) were partially offset by declines in finance and insurance (−0.7%) and retail trade (−0.8%).
| Component | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total output | 5.1 | 3.6 | 0.2 | (0.1) | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Total goods producing industries | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | (0.4) | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Primary | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | (0.1) | (1.5) | (1.1) |
| Utilities | (2.8) | 1.5 | 2.1 | (1.2) | 0.4 | 2.2 |
| Construction | 6.0 | (2.7) | (0.5) | 1.2 | 0.5 | (1.4) |
| Manufacturing | 3.6 | 4.5 | 0.2 | (1.6) | 2.3 | 2.9 |
| Total service producing industries | 5.4 | 4.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Wholesale trade | 4.4 | 0.5 | (0.5) | 0.5 | (0.1) | 0.0 |
| Retail trade | 5.7 | 2.8 | (4.5) | (1.9) | 1.0 | (0.8) |
| Transportation and warehousing | 1.8 | 11.5 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| Information and culture | 4.4 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | (2.6) | 0.3 |
| Finance and insurance | 5.5 | 1.7 | (1.2) | (0.2) | 0.4 | (0.7) |
| Real estate, rental and leasing | 3.5 | 0.1 | (0.5) | (0.5) | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Management of companies and enterprises | (27.3) | (26.9) | (7.7) | (12.0) | (7.4) | (6.7) |
| Professional and administrative services | 5.8 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.3 | (0.2) |
| Education | 6.1 | 4.2 | 3.4 | (1.4) | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Health care and social services | 9.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation | 3.2 | 49.6 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Accommodation and food | 12.3 | 24.9 | 1.8 | (0.8) | 2.7 | (1.8) |
| Other services | 9.2 | 10.7 | 0.8 | (0.8) | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Public administration | 5.4 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | (0.4) |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Jurisdictional comparison
Canadian real GDP was nearly unchanged (−0.0%) in the second quarter, after posting a gain of 0.6% in the first quarter. Declines in residential investment and smaller inventory accumulation were offset by higher non-residential investment and government spending. Growth in household spending and exports slowed significantly from the previous quarter.
Quebec’s real GDP declined 0.5% in the second quarter, following a 0.3% gain in the previous quarter. Declines in business investment and household consumption, along with slower inventory accumulation contributed to the second quarter decline.
In the U.S., real GDP increased 0.5% in the second quarter of 2023, following a 0.6% gain in the first quarter. The second quarter increase reflected higher consumer spending and business investment which was partially offset by a decrease in exports.
Global economic environment
U.S. economic growth was resilient in the first half of 2023, with real GDP rising 0.5% in the second quarter, following a 0.6% increase in the first quarter. Growth in the euro area was subdued in early 2023 with 0.1% real GDP growth in both the first and second quarters. U.K. real GDP edged up 0.2% in the second quarter, following 0.1% growth in the previous quarter. Economic growth strengthened in Japan in the second quarter with real GDP rising 1.2%, following a 0.8% increase in the first quarter. In China, economic growth slowed as the impact from the easing of pandemic-related restrictions faded. Real GDP in China rose 0.8% in the second quarter, slowing from 2.2% growth in the first quarter.
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price rose from about $US80 per barrel at the end of August to over US$90 per barrel by late September as members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied oil producers (OPEC+) announced further reductions in crude oil output targets. For the third quarter, WTI crude oil prices rose to US$82 per barrel from US$74 per barrel in the second quarter.
The Bank of Canada raised its key policy interest rate, the target for the overnight rate, by 25 basis points to 5.00% in July 2023, and then maintained the rate at that level at its September policy-setting meeting. The Bank of Canada continues to be focused on elevated price inflation and now expects inflation in Canada to return to the 2% target rate by mid-2025.
Canada’s 3-month government treasury bill yield rose over the last few months and was over 5% by the end of September. The 3-month treasury bill rose from 4.6% in the second quarter to an average of 5.0% in the third quarter. Similarly, Canadian 10-year government bond yields have also increased and were over 4% by the end of September. The 10-year yield rose from 3.1% in the second quarter to 3.6% in the third quarter.
The Canadian dollar held relatively steady in recent months, with the Canada-US exchange rate trading over 74 cents U.S. in late-September. On a quarterly basis, the exchange rate averaged 74.6 cents US in the third quarter, edging up from 74.5 cents US in the second quarter.
| Component | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 | 2023 Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. real GDP growth (per cent) | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | - |
| West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil ($US per barrel) | 68 | 95 | 93 | 83 | 76 | 74 | 82 |
| Canadian dollar (cents US) | 79.8 | 76.8 | 76.6 | 73.7 | 73.9 | 74.5 | 74.6 |
| Three-month treasury bill rate1 (per cent) | 0.1 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.0 |
| 10-year government bond rate2 (per cent) | 1.4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.6 |
[1], [2] Government of Canada interest rates.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Energy Information Administration, CME Group, and Bank of Canada
Appendix A: OEA release dates
The Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 states that the quarterly Ontario Economic Accounts should be released within 45 days of the Statistics Canada release of the National Income and Expenditure Accounts.
In compliance with the legislation, the OEA will be released according to the following schedule:
| Reference Period | Expected Statistics Canada release of National Income and Expenditure Accounts | Corresponding deadline for the release of Ontario Economic Accounts |
|---|---|---|
| Third quarter (July-September) 2023 | November 30, 2023 | By January 12, 2024 |
| Fourth quarter (October-December) 2023 | February 29, 2024 | By April 12, 2024 |
Appendix B: Structure of the Ontario economy
Appendix C: How GDP is measured
The Ontario Economic Accounts provide measurements of GDP using three different methodologies, by expenditure, income and industry.
The GDP by expenditure approach defines GDP as the aggregate of all expenditures on final consumption, gross capital formation and net trade by consumers, governments and businesses that occur within Ontario’s economy over a given time period. This measurement of GDP can also be defined as the sum of consumer spending, gross investment, government spending and net trade.
The GDP by income approach equates GDP to the total income earned through contributions to production within Ontario’s economy by labour and capital over a given time period. That is, GDP is the sum of all wages and salaries paid to employees, the gross operating surplus of businesses, gross mixed income and indirect taxes less subsidies.
The GDP by industry approach measures GDP by calculating the total output of the goods and services producing industries within Ontario’s economy and subtracting the cost of intermediate inputs used in final production. This approach can also be referred to as the value-added approach as it quantifies the additional value generated by industries through the production of final products within the economy.
For a full list of definitions used in the Ontario Economic Accounts, please see Statistics Canada's System of Macroeconomic Accounts Glossary at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/13-605-x/gloss/gloss-a-eng.htm.
Accessible chart descriptions
Chart 1.1: Real GDP growth
The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2023. In the four quarters of 2020, real GDP growth was −1.2%, −11.7%, 9.9% and 2.3%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2021, real GDP growth was 1.3%, −0.8%, 1.5% and 1.7%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2022, real GDP growth was 1.0%, 1.0%, 0.4% and −0.2%, respectively. Ontario real GDP grew by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2023, followed by a 0.2% increase in the second quarter.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Chart 1.2: Nominal GDP growth
The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly per cent nominal GDP growth from the first quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2023. In the four quarters of 2020, GDP growth was −1.3%, −12.4%, 12.2% and 4.2%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2021, GDP growth was 2.7%, 0.1%, 2.1% and 2.7%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2022, GDP growth was 3.1%, 3.6%, 0.1% and 0.1%, respectively. Ontario nominal GDP grew by 1.2% in the first quarter of 2023, followed by a 1.3% increase in the second quarter.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Chart 1.3: Real GDP change by industry, 2023 Q2
The horizontal bar chart illustrates the per cent change in real GDP by industry for the second quarter of 2023. The output of all industries increased 0.3% in the quarter. Output increased in goods-producing industries (+1.0%), with industry changes as follows: manufacturing (+2.9%); utilities (+2.2%); primary (−1.1%); and construction (−1.4%). Output in the service industries increased 0.1%, including industry changes as follows: real estate, rental and leasing (+1.3%); health, education and public administration (+0.2%); wholesale trade (0.0%); other services (0.0%); professional and administrative services (−0.2%); finance and insurance (−0.7%); and retail trade (−0.8%).
*Other services include transportation and warehousing; information and cultural; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; management of companies and enterprises; and other services.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Chart 1.4: Real GDP growth across jurisdictions
This bar chart shows quarterly percentage changes in real GDP for Ontario, Canada, Quebec and the U.S. for the first and second quarter of 2023. Ontario real GDP increased 0.8% in the first quarter and increased 0.2% in the second quarter. Canadian real GDP increased 0.6% in the first quarter and was unchanged in the second quarter. Quebec real GDP increased 0.3% in the first quarter and declined 0.5% in the second quarter. U.S. real GDP increased 0.6% in the first quarter and increased 0.5% in the second quarter.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance, Statistics Canada, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Institut de la statistique du Québec.
Chart 1.5: Real GDP growth
This bar chart shows quarterly percentage changes in real GDP for the U.S., the euro area, the United Kingdom, Japan, and China for the first and second quarter of 2023. U.S. real GDP increased 0.6% in the first quarter and increased 0.5% in the second quarter. Euro area real GDP increased by 0.1% in both the first and second quarter. Real GDP in the United Kingdom increased 0.1% in the first quarter and increased 0.2% in the second quarter. Japan’s real GDP increased 0.8% in the first quarter and increased 1.2% in the second quarter. China’s real GDP increased 2.2% in the first quarter and increased 0.8% in the second quarter.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, U.K. Office for National Statistics, Cabinet Office of Japan, and National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Chart: Appendix B, Per cent share of nominal GDP, 2022
This pie chart shows the percent share of nominal GDP by industry for 2022. Goods-producing industries accounted for 22.9% of Ontario’s nominal GDP with industry shares as follows: manufacturing (11.0%); construction (7.9%); utilities (1.8%) and primary industries (2.2%). Services-producing industries accounted for 77.1% of Ontario’s nominal GDP with industry shares as follows: health and education (12.8%); real estate, rental and leasing (12.6%); wholesale and retail trade (11.2%); finance and insurance (10.0%); public administration (7.4%); information and culture (3.8%); transportation and warehousing (3.6%); and other services (15.7%).
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Source: Statistics Canada
Chart: Appendix C, GDP measurement methods
- Expenditure Approach
- Sum of expenditures of all sectors of the economy
- Consumer Spending + Investment + Government Spending + Exports – Imports
- Income Approach
- Sum of all incomes
- Wage and Salaries + Profits + Mixed Incomes + Indirect taxes – Subsidies
- Production Approach (GDP by Industry)
- Sum of value added in all industry sectors
- Output of Goods Producing Industries + Output of Services Producing Industries – Intermediate Inputs