Ontario Economic Accounts
Learn about Ontario's economic performance and outlook for the first quarter of 2025.
View the related data tables at Ontario's Open Data Catalogue.
Highlights
- Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.6% in the first quarter (January, February, March) of 2025, matching growth in the previous quarter.
- First quarter growth was supported by higher exports and household consumption.
- Nominal GDP rose 1.2%, following a 1.5% increase in the previous quarter.
- Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, increased 0.5% in the first quarter.
- Economic production, measured on an industry basis, rose 0.5% in the first quarter, with gains in both goods sector output (+0.1%) and service sector production (+0.5%).
| Component | 2023 | 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 | 2025 Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Nominal GDP | 5.4 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Expenditure details
Ontario’s real GDP advanced 0.6% in the first quarter of 2025, matching growth in the previous quarter.
Household consumption spending rose 0.4%, following a 1.6% increase in the previous quarter. Higher spending on semi-durables (+3.0%) and non-durables (+2.3%) was partially offset by lower spending on durables (−1.3%) and services (−0.3%).
Total business investment declined 0.6%, after increasing 2.2% in the previous quarter. Investment declined in residential construction (−3.8%), non-residential construction (−0.6%) and intellectual property products (−0.4%). Investment in machinery and equipment advanced 8.6% in the quarter.
Spending at all three levels of government combined declined 0.2% in the first quarter, after increasing 0.7% in the previous quarter.
Exports (+1.8%) and imports (+0.2%) increased in the first quarter. International exports rose 2.9%, while international imports were 0.2% higher. Interprovincial exports (−0.5%) declined, while interprovincial imports (+0.3%) increased in the quarter.
Businesses drew down inventories by $1.9 billion in the first quarter, following a drawdown of $2.2 billion in the previous quarter.
| Component | 2023 | 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 | 2025 Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Household consumption | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Business investment | (2.1) | (0.3) | 0.7 | (0.5) | 2.2 | (0.6) |
| Government | 1.2 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | (0.2) |
| Exports | 4.4 | (1.1) | (2.2) | (0.4) | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Imports | 0.7 | (1.3) | (0.5) | (0.7) | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Investment in inventories ($ billions) | 8.7 | 7.7 | 12.5 | 11.9 | (2.2) | (1.9) |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Income details
Ontario’s nominal GDP increased 1.2% in the first quarter of 2025, after increasing 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Compensation of employees, which includes both wages and salaries and supplementary labour income, increased 0.5%, after rising 1.2% in the fourth quarter.
Net operating surplus of corporations edged up 0.1%, following a 6.4% increase in the previous quarter.
Net mixed income, which is comprised of farm income, unincorporated business income and rental income, declined 0.6%, following a 2.6% gain in the previous quarter.
| Component | 2023 | 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 | 2025 Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | 5.4 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Compensation of employees | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Net operating surplus | (4.2) | (0.9) | 2.2 | (2.4) | 6.4 | 0.1 |
| Net mixed income | 11.5 | 13.1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | (0.6) |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Price details
Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, increased 0.5% in the first quarter, following a 0.9% increase in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Prices for household consumption expenditures rose 0.6%, following a 0.7% increase in the fourth quarter.
Business investment prices increased 1.1%, following an increase of 0.9% in the previous quarter. Prices in the quarter increased for machinery and equipment (+2.4%), residential construction (+1.0%), non-residential construction (+0.7%) and intellectual property products (+0.4%).
Export prices (+1.5%) and import prices (+2.9%) both increased in the quarter.
| Component | 2023 | 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 | 2025 Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Household consumption | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Business investment | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Exports | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Imports | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 2.9 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Industry details
Ontario real GDP, measured as value-added by industry, rose 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025. Service sector output advanced 0.5% in the quarter, while output in the goods sector rose 0.1%.
Manufacturing output increased 0.9% in the quarter, following a decline of 0.5% in the previous quarter.
Construction output decreased 0.9% due to a decline in residential construction (−2.8%). Non-residential structures and engineering construction output increased 0.3% in the quarter.
Primary industry output was unchanged in the quarter, as an increase in agriculture (+0.4%) was offset by a decline in mining production (−0.5%).
Utilities output declined 0.3%, driven by a decrease in electric power production (−2.5%).
Service industry output increased 0.5% in the quarter, led by gains in health, education, and public administration (+0.6%), wholesale trade (+1.5%), and finance and insurance (+1.0%).
| Component | 2023 | 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 | 2025 Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total output | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Total goods producing industries | (0.3) | (2.3) | (0.4) | (0.7) | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Primary | 1.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Utilities | 2.0 | 3.0 | (0.4) | 3.9 | (0.8) | (0.3) |
| Construction | (2.0) | (2.0) | (0.3) | (0.8) | 2.0 | (0.9) |
| Manufacturing | 0.1 | (4.7) | (0.9) | (1.8) | (0.5) | 0.9 |
| Total service producing industries | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Wholesale trade | 1.4 | 0.8 | (0.8) | 0.8 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Retail trade | (0.2) | 1.3 | (1.6) | 0.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| Transportation and warehousing | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | (0.6) | (0.2) | 0.1 |
| Information and culture | 1.3 | (0.2) | (1.0) | (2.6) | (2.0) | 1.0 |
| Finance and insurance | (0.2) | 3.6 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Real estate, rental and leasing | 0.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.5 | (0.5) |
| Management of companies and enterprises | (34.9) | (29.0) | (7.3) | (5.8) | (9.9) | (11.1) |
| Professional and administrative services | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | (0.4) | (0.8) | 0.4 |
| Education | 3.6 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | (1.1) | 0.4 |
| Health care and social services | 4.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation | 14.8 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Accommodation and food | 6.4 | 1.6 | (0.5) | (1.7) | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Other services | 3.8 | 0.6 | (0.1) | (0.7) | (0.8) | 0.3 |
| Public administration | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Jurisdictional comparison
Canadian real GDP increased 0.5% in the first quarter, matching the increase from the previous quarter. First quarter growth was driven by an increase in exports and inventory accumulation. Overall growth was moderated by higher imports and weaker residential resale activity.
Quebec’s real GDP increased 0.5% in the first quarter, following a 0.3% gain in the previous quarter. Growth in the quarter was supported by higher exports and business investment. Overall growth was moderated by higher imports and lower household consumption.
In the U.S., real GDP decreased 0.1% in the first quarter, following a 0.6% gain in the previous quarter. The first quarter decline primarily reflected an increase in imports and a decrease in government spending. This was partially offset by increases in investment, consumer spending and exports.
Global economic environment
Real GDP in the U.S. declined by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025, following a 0.6% increase in the fourth quarter of 2024. The contraction primarily reflected a large increase in imports as well as a decrease in government spending. These effects were partially offset by increases in investment, consumer spending and exports.
Euro area real GDP grew 0.6% in the first quarter of 2025, up from a 0.3% increase in the fourth quarter. Growth in the first quarter was led by gross fixed capital investment, net exports and household consumption.
U.K. real GDP grew 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, following a 0.1% increase in the fourth quarter. The acceleration in growth was driven by gross fixed capital formation, net exports and household consumption.
Real GDP growth in Japan was unchanged in the first quarter of 2025, following 0.6% growth in the fourth quarter. China’s real GDP increased by 1.2% in the first quarter of 2025, decelerating from growth of 1.6% in the fourth quarter.
The Bank of Canada kept the overnight rate target unchanged at 2.75% at the April and June monetary policy meetings as it assesses the balance between easing domestic inflation and downside risks to economic growth stemming from trade disruptions with the United States. Since June 2024, the Bank of Canada has reduced its policy interest rate by a total of 225 basis points.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.50% since December 2024 as inflation remains above its target and tariffs disrupt economic growth. Since September 2024, the Federal Reserve has reduced its key policy interest rate target by a total of 100 basis points.
The yield on short-term Canadian government bonds continued to decline in the second quarter of 2025. The Canadian 3-month government treasury bill yield averaged 2.6% in the second quarter, down from 2.9% in the first quarter. The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond edged up to 3.2% in the second quarter from 3.1% in the first quarter.
The U.S. dollar has weakened considerably as tariffs and concerns over U.S. government deficits triggered capital outflows from U.S. assets. The Canadian dollar strengthened to 72.3 cents US in the second quarter of 2025, up from 69.7 cents US in the first quarter.
Oil prices declined sharply amid rising inventories and weakening demand prospects due to global trade tensions. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price averaged US$65 per barrel in the second quarter of 2025, down from US$72 per barrel in the first quarter. However, the escalating conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks and poses an upside risk to the oil price outlook.
| Component | 2023 | 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. real GDP growth (per cent) | 2.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | (0.1) | – |
| West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil ($US per barrel) | 78 | 77 | 82 | 76 | 71 | 72 | 65 |
| Canadian dollar (cents US) | 74.1 | 73.0 | 73.1 | 73.3 | 71.5 | 69.7 | 72.3 |
| Three-month treasury bill rate1 (per cent) | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| 10-year government bond rate (per cent) | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
[1] Government of Canada interest rates.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Energy Information Administration, and Bank of Canada
Appendix A: OEA release dates
The Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 states that the quarterly Ontario Economic Accounts should be released within 45 days of the Statistics Canada release of the National Income and Expenditure Accounts.
In compliance with the legislation, the OEA will be released according to the following schedule:
| Reference Period | Expected Statistics Canada release of National Income and Expenditure Accounts | Corresponding deadline for the release of Ontario Economic Accounts |
|---|---|---|
| Second quarter (April-June) 2025 | August 29, 2025 | By October 14, 2025 |
| Third quarter (July-September) 2025 | November 28, 2025 | By January 12, 2026 |
| Fourth quarter (October-December) 2025 | February 27, 2026 | By April 13, 2026 |
Appendix B: Structure of the Ontario economy
Appendix C: How GDP is measured
The Ontario Economic Accounts provide measurements of GDP using three different methodologies, by expenditure, income and industry.
The GDP by expenditure approach defines GDP as the aggregate of all expenditures on final consumption, gross capital formation and net trade by consumers, governments and businesses that occur within Ontario’s economy over a given time period. This measurement of GDP can also be defined as the sum of consumer spending, gross investment, government spending and net trade.
The GDP by income approach equates GDP to the total income earned through contributions to production within Ontario’s economy by labour and capital over a given time period. That is, GDP is the sum of all wages and salaries paid to employees, the gross operating surplus of businesses, gross mixed income and indirect taxes less subsidies.
The GDP by industry approach measures GDP by calculating the total output of the goods and services producing industries within Ontario’s economy and subtracting the cost of intermediate inputs used in final production. This approach can also be referred to as the value-added approach as it quantifies the additional value generated by industries through the production of final products within the economy.
For a full list of definitions used in the Ontario Economic Accounts, please see Statistics Canada’s System of Macroeconomic Accounts Glossary at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/13-605-x/gloss/gloss-a-eng.htm.
Accessible chart descriptions
Chart 1.1: Real GDP growth
The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2025. In the four quarters of 2022, real GDP growth was 1.1%, 0.9%, 0.3% and -0.2%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2023, real GDP growth was 1.0%, 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2024, real GDP growth was 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. In the first quarter of 2025, real GDP growth was 0.6%.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Chart 1.2: Nominal GDP growth
The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly per cent nominal GDP growth from the first quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2025. In the four quarters of 2022, GDP growth was 2.8%, 3.8%, 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2023, GDP growth was 1.2%, 2.2%, 1.7% and 1.6%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2024, GDP growth was 0.3%, 1.6%, 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively. In the first quarter of 2025, GDP growth was 1.2%.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Chart 1.3: Real GDP Change by Industry, 2025 Q1
The horizontal bar chart illustrates the per cent change in real GDP by industry for the first quarter of 2025. The output of all industries rose 0.5% in the quarter. Output increased in goods-producing industries (+0.1%), with industry changes as follows: manufacturing (+0.9%); primary (0.0%); utilities (−0.3%); and construction (−0.9%). Output in the service industries increased 0.5%, including industry changes as follows: wholesale trade (+1.5%); finance and insurance (+1.0%); health, education and public administration (+0.6%); other services* (+0.6%); retail trade (+0.5%); professional and administrative services (+0.4%); and real estate, rental and leasing (−0.5%).
*Other services include transportation and warehousing; information and cultural; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; management of companies and enterprises; and other services.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Chart 1.4: Real GDP growth across jurisdictions
This bar chart shows quarterly percentage changes in real GDP for Ontario, Canada, Quebec and the U.S. for the fourth quarter of 2024 and first quarter of 2025. Ontario real GDP increased 0.6% in both the fourth quarter and first quarter. Canadian real GDP increased 0.5% in both the fourth quarter and first quarter. Quebec real GDP increased 0.3% the fourth quarter and 0.5% in the first quarter. U.S. real GDP increased 0.6% in fourth quarter and declined 0.1% in the first quarter.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance, Statistics Canada, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Institut de la statistique du Québec.
Chart 1.5: Real GDP growth
This bar chart shows quarterly percentage changes in real GDP for the U.S., Japan, the euro area, the United Kingdom and China for the fourth quarter of 2024 and first quarter of 2025. U.S. real GDP increased 0.6% in fourth quarter and declined 0.1% in the first quarter. Japan’s real GDP increased 0.6% in the fourth quarter and was unchanged in the first quarter. Euro area real GDP increased 0.3% in the fourth quarter and 0.6% in the first quarter. Real GDP in the United Kingdom increased 0.1% in the fourth quarter and 0.7% in the first quarter. China’s real GDP increased 1.6% in the fourth quarter and 1.2% in the first quarter.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, U.K. Office for National Statistics, Cabinet Office of Japan, and National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Chart: Appendix B, Per Cent Share of Nominal GDP, 2024
This pie chart shows the percent share of nominal GDP by industry for 2024. Goods-producing industries accounted for 21.6% of Ontario’s nominal GDP with industry shares as follows: manufacturing (10.0%); construction (7.4%); utilities (2.1%) and primary industries (2.2%). Services-producing industries accounted for 78.4% of Ontario’s nominal GDP with industry shares as follows: wholesale and retail trade (11.3%); transportation and warehousing (4.4%); information and culture (3.6%); finance and insurance (9.9%); real estate, rental and leasing (13.1%); health and education (12.7%); public administration (7.5%); and other services (16.0%).
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Source: Statistics Canada
Chart : Appendix C, GDP measurement methods
- Expenditure Approach
- Sum of expenditures of all sectors of the economy
- Consumer Spending + Investment + Government Spending + Exports – Imports
- Income Approach
- Sum of all incomes
- Wage and Salaries + Profits + Mixed Incomes + Indirect taxes – Subsidies
- Production Approach (GDP by Industry)
- Sum of value added in all industry sectors
- Output of Goods Producing Industries + Output of Services Producing Industries – Intermediate Inputs