Ontario Economic Accounts
Learn about Ontario's economic performance and outlook for the second quarter of 2026.
View the related data tables at Ontario's Open Data Catalogue.
Highlights
- Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) advanced 1.0% in the second quarter (April, May, June) of 2026, after remaining unchanged in the previous quarter.
- Second quarter growth was driven by higher exports, while household spending and business investment also increased.
- Nominal GDP rose 2.6%, following a 0.8% increase in the previous quarter.
- Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, increased 1.5% in the second quarter.
- Economic production, measured on an industry basis, increased 0.8% in the second quarter, as goods (+1.3%) and service (+0.7%) sector production rose.
| Component | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 | 2026 Q1 | 2026 Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | (0.3) | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Nominal GDP | 5.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 2.6 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Expenditure details
Ontario’s real GDP advanced 1.0% in the second quarter of 2026, after remaining unchanged in the previous quarter.
Household consumption spending rose 1.1%, led by consumption of services (+1.1%) and durables (+2.1%). Consumption of semi-durables (+1.8%) and non-durables (+0.5%) also rose in the quarter.
Total business investment rose 2.4%, as machinery and equipment (+7.0%), residential (+2.2%) and non-residential construction (+1.0%) investment increased. Investment in intellectual property products declined 0.7% in the quarter.
Spending at all three levels of government edged up 0.1% in the second quarter, after declining 0.5% in the previous quarter.
Exports (+3.5%) and imports (+0.4%) rose in the quarter. International exports (+4.8%) and international imports (+0.2%) increased. Interprovincial exports (+0.5%) and interprovincial imports (+1.2%) also advanced.
Businesses drew down inventories by $9.6 billion, following an accumulation of $4.7 billion in the previous quarter.
| Component | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 | 2026 Q1 | 2026 Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | (0.3) | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Household consumption | 2.2 | 2.5 | (0.2) | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| Business investment | (1.2) | (1.1) | 0.0 | (1.3) | (1.1) | 2.4 |
| Government | 4.5 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 1.1 | (0.5) | 0.1 |
| Exports | (0.6) | (0.6) | 0.8 | 1.7 | (0.2) | 3.5 |
| Imports | (0.3) | 1.2 | (1.7) | 0.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Investment in inventories ($ billions) | 0.8 | 3.3 | 5.2 | (5.9) | 4.7 | (9.6) |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Income details
Ontario’s nominal GDP increased 2.6% in the second quarter of 2026, following a 0.8% increase in the previous quarter.
Compensation of employees, which includes both wages and salaries and supplementary labour income, rose 1.5%, after increasing 0.7% in the previous quarter.
Net operating surplus of corporations advanced 11.7%, after increasing 1.3% in the previous quarter.
Net mixed income, which is comprised of farm income, unincorporated business income and rental income, increased 1.7%, following a 1.3% decline in the previous quarter.
| Component | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 | 2026 Q1 | 2026 Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | 5.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| Compensation of employees | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Net operating surplus | (1.1) | 6.2 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 11.7 |
| Net mixed income | 12.1 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 2.0 | (1.3) | 1.7 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Price details
Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, increased 1.5% in the second quarter, following a 0.8% increase in the previous quarter.
Prices for household consumption expenditures rose 0.7%, after increasing 0.4% in the previous quarter.
Business investment prices increased 1.3%, after edging down 0.1% in the previous quarter. Prices were higher for machinery and equipment (+2.2%), non-residential construction (+1.7%), residential construction (+1.0%) and intellectual property products (+0.7%).
Export prices (+2.8%) and import prices (+2.8%) both increased in the quarter.
| Component | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 | 2026 Q1 | 2026 Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 3.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Household consumption | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Business investment | 3.3 | 0.5 | (0.2) | 0.0 | (0.1) | 1.3 |
| Exports | 3.5 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| Imports | 2.7 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.8 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Industry details
Ontario real GDP, measured as value-added by industry, increased 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026. Output in goods-producing industries increased 1.3% in the quarter, while service sector output rose by 0.7%.
Manufacturing output increased 2.0% in the second quarter, following a 1.7% decline in the previous quarter. Auto industry output advanced 13.9% following declines in the previous two quarters.
Construction output increased 1.0% in the second quarter, following a 1.9% decline in the first quarter.
Primary industry output declined 0.8%, following a 1.4% decrease in the first quarter.
Utilities output advanced 0.5%, following an increase of 0.3% in the previous quarter.
Service industry output increased 0.7% in the quarter, led by gains in public administration (+1.4%) and real estate, rental and leasing (+0.8%). These increases were partially offset by declines in professional and administrative (-0.8%) and education services (-0.5%).
| Component | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 | 2026 Q1 | 2026 Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total output | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | (0.2) | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Total goods producing industries | (2.3) | 0.1 | 1.1 | (1.4) | (1.6) | 1.3 |
| Primary | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | (1.4) | (0.8) |
| Utilities | 3.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Construction | (2.2) | 0.2 | 1.0 | (2.1) | (1.9) | 1.0 |
| Manufacturing | (4.6) | (1.6) | 0.9 | (2.0) | (1.7) | 2.0 |
| Total service industries | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Wholesale trade | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | (1.0) | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| Retail trade | 1.2 | 3.0 | 0.3 | (0.5) | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Transportation and warehousing | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Information and culture | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Finance and insurance | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Real estate, rental and leasing | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 | (0.5) | 0.8 |
| Management of companies and enterprises | (30.0) | (22.0) | (4.0) | (5.8) | (4.1) | (9.1) |
| Professional and administrative services | 1.9 | (0.3) | 0.4 | 0.1 | (0.3) | (0.8) |
| Education | 4.2 | (0.3) | (0.5) | (2.4) | 0.2 | (0.5) |
| Health care and social services | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation | 2.4 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | (1.8) | 1.5 |
| Accommodation and food | 0.8 | 2.0 | (0.2) | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| Other services | (0.3) | (1.2) | (0.4) | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Public administration | 2.7 | 1.1 | (0.8) | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.4 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Jurisdictional comparisons
Canadian real GDP rose 0.8% in the second quarter, after edging up 0.1% in the previous quarter. Higher exports, household spending and business capital investment were partially offset by a draw down of inventories.
Quebec’s real GDP increased 0.2% in the second quarter, following a rise of 0.4% in the first quarter. Growth was primarily driven by an improved trade balance, while household spending was also up. The gain was partially offset by a draw down of inventories.
In the U.S., real GDP advanced 0.6% in the second quarter, after increasing 0.6% in the previous quarter. In the second quarter, growth in consumer spending, exports, and investment was partly offset by a rise in imports.
Global economic environment
Real GDP in the U.S. increased by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2026 after rising 0.6% in the first quarter. Growth in the second quarter was supported by gains in consumer spending, exports, and investment, which were partially offset by a rise in imports.
Euro area real GDP increased by 0.6% in the second quarter, following flat growth in the first quarter. The increase in real GDP reflected positive contributions from net trade and household consumption, partially offset by changes to inventories.
U.K. real GDP increased 0.5% in the second quarter, after rising 0.6% in the first quarter. The second quarter gain was driven by gross fixed capital formation and household consumption. The gains were offset by a decline in government consumption.
Real GDP in Japan increased by 0.4% in the second quarter, following a growth of 0.5% in the previous quarter. China’s real GDP increased by 0.9% in the second quarter, slowing from growth of 1.3% in the first quarter.
The Bank of Canada left its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% at its September policy meeting, amid heightened external risks. The Bank has held the rate steady for seven consecutive meetings since a 25 basis point rate cut in October 2025. The Bank indicated that while inflation remained close to 3%, largely driven by elevated gasoline prices, core inflation measures remain near the Bank’s 2% target. However, inflation risks have tilted to the upside as the conflict in the Middle East continues and new U.S. tariffs and Canadian retaliatory measures are implemented.
The U.S. Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25-basis point to 3.75% to 4.0% at its September meeting, its first increase since 2023. According to the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement, U.S. economic activity continues to grow at a solid pace, and domestic spending has proven resilient despite uncertainty, partly related to geopolitical developments. Meanwhile, U.S. job gains have kept pace with workforce growth while inflation remains elevated.
The yield on short‑term Canadian government bonds remained stable in the third quarter of 2026. The Government of Canada three‑month treasury bill yield averaged 2.3% in the third quarter, the same as in the second quarter. The Government of Canada 10‑year bond yield increased to 3.7% in the third quarter from 3.5% in the previous quarter.
The Canadian dollar averaged 71.5 cents US in the third quarter of 2026, down from 72.3 cents US in the second quarter.
Oil prices continued to be volatile amid geopolitical tensions, which have heightened uncertainty in energy markets and constrained global oil supply. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price averaged US$87 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, down from US$96 per barrel in the second quarter.
| Component | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q2 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 | 2026 Q1 | 2026 Q2 | 2026 Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. real GDP growth (per cent) | 2.8 | 2.1 | (0.2) | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | – |
| West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil (US$ per barrel) | 77 | 65 | 72 | 65 | 66 | 60 | 73 | 96 | 87 |
| Canadian dollar (cents US) | 73.0 | 71.6 | 69.7 | 72.3 | 72.6 | 71.7 | 72.9 | 72.3 | 71.5 |
| Three-month treasury bill rate1 (per cent) | 4.4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 10-year government bond rate (per cent) | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
[1] Government of Canada interest rates.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Energy Information Administration, and Bank of Canada.
Appendix A: OEA release dates
The Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 states that the quarterly Ontario Economic Accounts should be released within 45 days of the Statistics Canada release of the National Income and Expenditure Accounts.
In compliance with the legislation, the OEA will be released according to the following schedule:
| Reference Period | Expected Statistics Canada release of National Income and Expenditure Accounts | Corresponding deadline for the release of Ontario Economic Accounts |
|---|---|---|
| Third quarter (July-September) 2026 | November 30, 2026 | By January 14, 2027 |
| Fourth quarter (October-December) 2026 | March 1, 2027 | By April 15, 2027 |
Appendix B: Structure of the Ontario economy
Appendix C: How GDP is measured
The Ontario Economic Accounts provide measurements of GDP using three different methodologies, by expenditure, income and industry.
The GDP by expenditure approach defines GDP as the aggregate of all expenditures on final consumption, gross capital formation and net trade by consumers, governments and businesses that occur within Ontario’s economy over a given time period.
This measurement of GDP can also be defined as the sum of consumer spending, gross investment, government spending and net trade.
The GDP by income approach equates GDP to the total income earned through contributions to production within Ontario’s economy by labour and capital over a given time period. That is, GDP is the sum of all wages and salaries paid to employees, the gross operating surplus of businesses, gross mixed income and indirect taxes less subsidies.
The GDP by industry approach measures GDP by calculating the total output of the goods and services producing industries within Ontario’s economy and subtracting the cost of intermediate inputs used in final production. This approach can also be referred to as the value-added approach as it quantifies the additional value generated by industries through the production of final products within the economy.
For a full list of definitions used in the Ontario Economic Accounts, please see Statistics Canada’s System of Macroeconomic Accounts Glossary at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/13-605-x/gloss/gloss-a-eng.htm.
Accessible chart descriptions
Chart 1.1: Real GDP growth
The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2026. In the four quarters of 2023, real GDP growth was 1.3%, 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2024, real GDP growth was 0.4%, 0.4%, 0.3% and 1.0%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2025, real GDP growth was 0.6%, -0.7%, 0.6% and -0.3%, respectively. In the first quarter of 2026, real GDP remained unchanged. In the second quarter of 2026, real GDP rose 1.0%.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Chart 1.2: Nominal GDP growth
The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly per cent nominal GDP growth from the first quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2026. In the four quarters of 2023, GDP growth was 1.6%, 2.6%, 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2024, GDP growth was 0.2%, 1.5%, 1.0% and 1.6%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2025, GDP growth was 1.2%, -0.2%, 1.5% and 0.9%, respectively. In the first quarter of 2026, nominal GDP increased 0.8%. In the second quarter of 2026, nominal GDP increased 2.6%.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Chart 1.3: Real GDP Change by Industry, 2026 Q2
The horizontal bar chart illustrates the per cent change in real GDP by industry for the second quarter of 2026. The output of all industries increased 0.8% in the quarter. Output increased in goods-producing industries (+1.3%), with industry changes as follows: manufacturing (+2.0%); construction (+1.0%); utilities (+0.5%); and primary (-0.8%). Output in the service industries increased 0.7%, including industry changes as follows: wholesale trade (+1.3%); retail trade (+1.2%); other services* (+1.2%); real estate, rental and leasing (+0.8%); finance and insurance (+0.8%); health, education and public administration (+0.3%); and professional and administrative services (-0.8%).
*Other services include transportation and warehousing; information and cultural; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; management of companies and enterprises; and other services.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Chart 1.4: Real GDP growth across jurisdictions
This bar chart shows quarterly percentage changes in real GDP for Ontario, Canada, Quebec and the U.S. for the first and second quarter of 2026. Ontario real GDP was unchanged in the first quarter and increased 1.0% in the second quarter. Canadian real GDP increased 0.1% in the first quarter and 0.8% in the second quarter. Quebec real GDP increased 0.4 % in the first quarter and 0.2% in the second quarter. U.S. real GDP increased 0.6% in the first quarter and 0.6% in the second quarter.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance, Statistics Canada, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Institut de la statistique du Québec.
Chart 1.5: Real GDP growth
This bar chart shows quarterly percentage changes in real GDP for the U.S., the euro area, the United Kingdom, Japan and China, for the first and second quarter of 2026. U.S. real GDP increased 0.6% in the first quarter and 0.6% in the second quarter. Euro area real GDP remained unchanged in the first quarter and increased 0.6% in the second quarter. Real GDP in the United Kingdom increased 0.6% in the first quarter and 0.5% in the second quarter. Japan’s real GDP increased 0.5% in the first quarter and 0.4% in the second quarter. China’s real GDP increased 1.3% in the first quarter and 0.9% in the second quarter.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, U.K. Office for National Statistics, Cabinet Office of Japan, and National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Chart: Appendix B, Per Cent Share of Nominal GDP, 2025
This pie chart shows the percent share of nominal GDP by industry for 2025. Goods-producing industries accounted for 20.2% of Ontario’s nominal GDP with industry shares as follows: manufacturing (9.0%); construction (6.8%); primary industries (2.3%); and utilities (2.1%). Services-producing industries accounted for 79.8% of Ontario’s nominal GDP with industry shares as follows: wholesale and retail trade (10.3%); transportation and warehousing (4.3%); information and culture (4.0%); finance and insurance (10.5%); real estate, rental and leasing (14.2%); health and education (12.7%); public administration (7.6%); and other services (16.3%).
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Chart : Appendix C, GDP measurement methods
- Expenditure Approach
- Sum of expenditures of all sectors of the economy
- Consumer Spending + Investment + Government Spending + Exports − Imports
- Income Approach
- Sum of all incomes
- Wage and Salaries + Profits + Mixed Incomes + Indirect taxes − Subsidies
- Production Approach (GDP by Industry)
- Sum of value added in all industry sectors
- Output of Goods Producing Industries + Output of Services Producing Industries − Intermediate Inputs