Ontario Economic Accounts
Learn about Ontario's economic performance and outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025.
View the related data tables at Ontario's Open Data Catalogue.
Highlights
- Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) declined 0.3% in the fourth quarter (October, November, December) of 2025, following a 0.6% increase in the previous quarter.
- The fourth quarter decline was largely due to a draw down in inventories. Higher exports and increased household spending partially offset the decline.
- Nominal GDP rose 0.8%, following a 1.5% increase in the previous quarter.
- Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, increased 1.2% in the fourth quarter.
- Economic production, measured on an industry basis, declined 0.2% in the fourth quarter, due to a decline in the goods sector (−1.5%). Service sector production edged up 0.1% in the quarter.
2025 Annual Highlights
- Ontario’s real GDP advanced by 1.3% in 2025, following a 1.6% increase in 2024.
- In 2025, the increase in real GDP was supported by higher household consumption (+2.3%).
- Nominal GDP rose 4.2% in 2025, following a 5.1% increase in 2024.
- Economic production, measured on an industry basis, rose 1.1%. An increase in service sector production (+1.4%) was partially offset by a decline in goods sector output (−0.2%).
| Component | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q2 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | (0.5) | 0.6 | (0.3) |
| Nominal GDP | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | (0.2) | 1.5 | 0.8 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Expenditure details
Ontario’s real GDP declined 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025, following a 0.6% increase in the third quarter.
Household consumption spending rose 0.6%, as higher consumption of services (+1.0%), semi-durables (+0.8%) and non-durables (+0.3%) was partly offset by a decline in consumption of durables (−1.1%).
Total business investment declined 0.9%, due to declines in residential (−3.5%) and non-residential (−0.9%) investment. Investment in machinery and equipment (+3.3%) and intellectual property products (+1.0%) rose in the quarter.
Spending at all three levels of government combined increased 1.1% in the fourth quarter, after edging up 0.1% in the previous quarter.
Exports (+1.6%) and imports (+0.3%) increased in the fourth quarter. International exports (+2.2%) and international imports (+0.3%) as well as interprovincial exports (+0.1%) and interprovincial imports (+0.4%) increased in the quarter.
Businesses withdrew $6.1 billion of inventories in the fourth quarter, following an accumulation of $4.8 billion in the previous quarter.
| Component | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q2 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | (0.5) | 0.6 | (0.3) |
| Household consumption | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | (0.2) | 0.6 |
| Business investment | (1.2) | (1.4) | (1.4) | (1.4) | 0.1 | (0.9) |
| Government | 4.5 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 1.3 | (0.1) | 1.1 |
| Exports | (0.6) | (0.6) | 0.9 | (4.0) | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Imports | (0.3) | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.1 | (1.6) | 0.3 |
| Investment in inventories ($ billions) | 0.8 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 11.7 | 4.8 | (6.1) |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Income details
Ontario’s nominal GDP increased 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, following a 1.5% increase in the previous quarter.
Compensation of employees, which includes both wages and salaries and supplementary labour income, rose 0.7%, after increasing 1.1% in the third quarter.
Net operating surplus of corporations advanced 1.8%, after increasing 6.9% in the previous quarter.
Net mixed income, which is comprised of farm income, unincorporated business income and rental income, rose 1.7%, following a 2.7% increase in the previous quarter.
| Component | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q2 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | (0.2) | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Compensation of employees | 6.4 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Net operating surplus | (1.1) | 5.8 | 1.2 | (3.3) | 6.9 | 1.8 |
| Net mixed income | 12.1 | 7.6 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Price details
Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, increased 1.2% in the fourth quarter, following a 0.8% increase in the third quarter.
Prices for household consumption expenditures rose 0.7%, after increasing 0.8% in the previous quarter.
Business investment prices edged down 0.1%, following a 0.2% decline in the previous quarter. Residential construction (−0.4%) and non-residential construction (−0.3%) prices were lower in the quarter. Prices for machinery and equipment (+1.0%) and intellectual property products (+0.8%) were higher in the quarter.
Export prices (+2.7%) and import prices (+0.9%) both increased in the quarter.
| Component | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q2 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 3.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Household consumption | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Business investment | 3.3 | 0.7 | (0.4) | 0.4 | (0.2) | (0.1) |
| Exports | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | (1.0) | 0.3 | 2.7 |
| Imports | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | (1.8) | 0.3 | 0.9 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Industry details
Ontario real GDP, measured as value-added by industry, decreased 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Output in goods-producing industries declined 1.5% in the quarter, while output in the service sector increased 0.1%.
Manufacturing output declined 2.0% in the fourth quarter, following an increase of 0.9% in the previous quarter.
Construction output decreased 2.1% in the fourth quarter, following a 1.0% increase in the previous quarter.
Primary industry output rose 0.6%, driven by an increase in both agricultural (+0.6%) and mining production (+0.6%).
Utilities output advanced 1.4%, following an increase of 0.7% in the previous quarter.
Service industry output rose 0.1% in the quarter, led by gains in finance and insurance (+1.0%) and information and culture services (+2.3%). These increases were partially offset by declines in wholesale (−1.1%) and retail trade (−0.6%).
| Component | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q2 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total output | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | (0.3) | 0.7 | (0.2) |
| Total goods producing industries | (2.3) | (0.2) | 0.9 | (1.4) | 1.0 | (1.5) |
| Primary | 2.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Utilities | 3.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | (2.2) | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Construction | (2.2) | 0.1 | (0.5) | (0.2) | 1.0 | (2.1) |
| Manufacturing | (4.6) | (1.6) | 1.5 | (2.5) | 0.9 | (2.0) |
| Total service industries | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Wholesale trade | 0.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | (1.2) | 1.2 | (1.1) |
| Retail trade | 1.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | (0.6) |
| Transportation and warehousing | 3.5 | 0.2 | (0.3) | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Information and culture | 2.8 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Finance and insurance | 5.2 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Real estate, rental and leasing | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| Management of companies and enterprises | (30.0) | (26.2) | (6.7) | (5.0) | (5.3) | (6.8) |
| Professional and administrative services | 1.9 | (1.1) | (0.1) | (0.7) | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Education | 4.2 | (1.0) | 0.5 | (1.1) | (0.5) | (2.3) |
| Health care and social services | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Accommodation and food | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | (0.2) | 0.6 |
| Other services | (0.3) | (1.0) | 0.8 | (0.5) | (0.4) | 0.2 |
| Public administration | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | (0.7) | 0.4 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Jurisdictional comparison
Canadian real GDP declined 0.2% in the fourth quarter, following a gain of 0.6% in the previous quarter. The decline in the fourth quarter reflected a drawdown in business inventories following an accumulation in the third quarter. The overall decline was partially moderated by increases in exports, household consumption and government capital investment.
Quebec’s real GDP edged down 0.1% in the fourth quarter, following a 0.1% increase in the previous quarter. The decline was largely due to a reduction in inventory investment, partly offset by an improved trade balance and stronger household consumption.
In the U.S., real GDP advanced 0.2% in the fourth quarter, following an increase of 1.1% in the previous quarter. The increase in the fourth quarter was driven by gains in consumer spending and investment, which were partially offset by declines in government spending and exports.
Global economic environment
Real GDP in the U.S. increased by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025, following an increase of 1.1% in the third quarter. The fourth quarter increase primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and investment which were partially offset by decreases in government spending and exports.
Euro area real GDP grew 0.2% in the fourth quarter, down from 0.3% in the third quarter. Growth in the fourth quarter was led by gross fixed capital formation and household and government consumption expenditures. The increase was partly offset by a negative contribution from net exports.
U.K. real GDP growth increased 0.1% in the fourth quarter, unchanged from the third quarter. The fourth quarter gain was driven by household and government consumption, and other gross capital formation including inventory accumulation. The gains were offset by net exports.
Real GDP growth in Japan increased by 0.3% in the fourth quarter, following a 0.7% decline in the third quarter. China’s real GDP increased by 1.2% in the fourth quarter, up slightly from growth of 1.1% in the third quarter.
The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25% at its March policy meeting, following pauses in December and January. The Bank expects the Canadian economy to expand at a modest pace as it continues to adjust to U.S. tariffs and persistent trade policy uncertainty, while the conflict in the Middle East adds volatility to global energy markets and financial conditions. The Bank noted that inflation continues to ease, with recent indicators moving closer to the target though global developments pose risks to the near‑term trajectory.
The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% at its March meeting. This is the second consecutive pause in 2026 and comes after three rate reductions in late 2025. According to the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement, available data indicate that economic activity continues to grow at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has shown little movement in recent months. The Federal Reserve indicated that the impact of recent developments in the Middle East on the U.S. economy remains uncertain.
The yield on short‑term Canadian government bonds was unchanged in the first quarter of 2026. The Government of Canada three‑month treasury bill yield averaged 2.2% in the first quarter, the same as in the fourth quarter of 2025. In contrast, the Government of Canada 10‑year bond yield increased to 3.4% in the first quarter from 3.2% in the previous quarter.
The U.S. dollar edged down against other major currencies by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026 after posting a gain of 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The Canadian dollar averaged 72.9 cents US in the first quarter of 2026, up from 71.7 cents US in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Oil prices increased amid geopolitical tensions that continue to contribute to elevated oil price uncertainty. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price averaged US$72 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, up from US$60 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
| Component | 2024 | 2025 | 2024 Q4 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q2 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 | 2026 Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. real GDP growth (per cent) | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | (0.2) | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil (US$ per barrel) | 77 | 65 | 71 | 72 | 65 | 66 | 60 | 72 |
| Canadian dollar (cents US) | 73.0 | 71.6 | 71.5 | 69.7 | 72.3 | 72.6 | 71.7 | 72.9 |
| Three-month treasury bill rate1 (per cent) | 4.4 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 10-year government bond rate (per cent) | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
[1] Government of Canada interest rates.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Energy Information Administration, and Bank of Canada.
Appendix A: OEA release dates
The Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 states that the quarterly Ontario Economic Accounts should be released within 45 days of the Statistics Canada release of the National Income and Expenditure Accounts.
In compliance with the legislation, the OEA will be released according to the following schedule:
| Reference Period | Expected Statistics Canada release of National Income and Expenditure Accounts | Corresponding deadline for the release of Ontario Economic Accounts |
|---|---|---|
| First quarter (January-March) 2026 | May 29, 2026 | By July 13, 2026 |
| Second quarter (April-June) 2026 | August 28, 2026 | By October 13, 2026 |
| Third quarter (July-September) 2026 | November 30, 2026 | By January 14, 2027 |
| Fourth quarter (October-December) 2026 | March 1, 2027 | By April 15, 2027 |
Appendix B: Structure of the Ontario economy
Appendix C: How GDP is measured
The Ontario Economic Accounts provide measurements of GDP using three different methodologies, by expenditure, income and industry.
The GDP by expenditure approach defines GDP as the aggregate of all expenditures on final consumption, gross capital formation and net trade by consumers, governments and businesses that occur within Ontario’s economy over a given time period. This measurement of GDP can also be defined as the sum of consumer spending, gross investment, government spending and net trade.
The GDP by income approach equates GDP to the total income earned through contributions to production within Ontario’s economy by labour and capital over a given time period. That is, GDP is the sum of all wages and salaries paid to employees, the gross operating surplus of businesses, gross mixed income and indirect taxes less subsidies.
The GDP by industry approach measures GDP by calculating the total output of the goods and services producing industries within Ontario’s economy and subtracting the cost of intermediate inputs used in final production. This approach can also be referred to as the value-added approach as it quantifies the additional value generated by industries through the production of final products within the economy.
For a full list of definitions used in the Ontario Economic Accounts, please see Statistics Canada’s System of Macroeconomic Accounts Glossary at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/13-605-x/gloss/gloss-a-eng.htm.
Accessible chart descriptions
Chart 1.1: Real GDP growth
The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2025. In the four quarters of 2022, real GDP growth was 1.0%, 1.2%, 0.4% and −0.2%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2023, real GDP growth was 1.3%, 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2024, real GDP growth was 0.4%, 0.4%, 0.3% and 1.0%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2025, real GDP growth was 0.5%, −0.5%, 0.6% and −0.3%, respectively.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Chart 1.2: Nominal GDP growth
The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly per cent nominal GDP growth from the first quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2025. In the four quarters of 2022, GDP growth was 2.7%, 4.0%, 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2023, GDP growth was 1.6%, 2.6%, 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2024, GDP growth was 0.2%, 1.5%, 1.0% and 1.6%, respectively. In the four quarters of 2025, GDP growth was 1.2%, −0.2%, 1.5% and 0.8%, respectively.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Chart 1.3: Real GDP Change by Industry, 2025 Q4
The horizontal bar chart illustrates the per cent change in real GDP by industry for the fourth quarter of 2025. The output of all industries declined 0.2% in the quarter. Output in goods-producing industries declined (−1.5%), with industry changes as follows: construction (−2.1%); manufacturing (−2.0%); primary (+0.6%); and utilities (+1.4%). Output in the service industries increased 0.1%, including industry changes as follows: other services* (+1.0%); finance and insurance (+1.0%); real estate, rental and leasing (+0.1%); professional and administrative services (0.0%); health, education and public administration (−0.2%); retail trade (−0.6%); and wholesale trade (−1.1%).
*Other services include transportation and warehousing; information and cultural; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; management of companies and enterprises; and other services.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Chart 1.4: Real GDP growth across jurisdictions
This bar chart shows quarterly percentage changes in real GDP for Ontario, Canada, Quebec and the U.S. for the third quarter of 2025 and fourth quarter of 2025. Ontario real GDP increased 0.6% in the third quarter and declined 0.3% in the fourth quarter. Canadian real GDP increased 0.6% in the third quarter and declined 0.2% in the fourth quarter. Quebec real GDP increased 0.1% in the third quarter and declined 0.1% in the fourth quarter. U.S. real GDP increased 1.1% in the third quarter and increased 0.2% in the fourth quarter.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance, Statistics Canada, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Institut de la statistique du Québec.
Chart 1.5: Real GDP growth
This bar chart shows quarterly percentage changes in real GDP for the U.S., the euro area, the United Kingdom, Japan and China, for the third quarter of 2025 and fourth quarter of 2025. U.S. real GDP increased 1.1% in the third quarter and increased 0.2% in the fourth quarter. Euro area real GDP increased 0.3% in the third quarter and 0.2% in the fourth quarter. Real GDP in the United Kingdom increased 0.1% in the third and fourth quarter. Japan’s real GDP decreased 0.7% in the third quarter and increased 0.3% in the fourth quarter. China’s real GDP increased 1.1% in the third quarter and 1.2% in the fourth quarter.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, U.K. Office for National Statistics, Cabinet Office of Japan, and National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Chart: Appendix B, Per Cent Share of Nominal GDP, 2024
This pie chart shows the percent share of nominal GDP by industry for 2024. Goods-producing industries accounted for 21.0% of Ontario’s nominal GDP with industry shares as follows: manufacturing (9.5%); construction (7.3%); utilities (2.1%) and primary industries (2.1%). Services-producing industries accounted for 79.0% of Ontario’s nominal GDP with industry shares as follows: wholesale and retail trade (10.7%); transportation and warehousing (4.4%); information and culture (3.8%); finance and insurance (9.9%); real estate, rental and leasing (13.4%); health and education (12.8%); public administration (7.5%); and other services (16.6%).
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Chart : Appendix C, GDP measurement methods
- Expenditure Approach
- Sum of expenditures of all sectors of the economy
- Consumer Spending + Investment + Government Spending + Exports − Imports
- Income Approach
- Sum of all incomes
- Wage and Salaries + Profits + Mixed Incomes + Indirect taxes − Subsidies
- Production Approach (GDP by Industry)
- Sum of value added in all industry sectors
- Output of Goods Producing Industries + Output of Services Producing Industries − Intermediate Inputs