978-1-4868-7192-6 English HTML - Ontario Population Projections Update, 2022-2046

Map of Ontario census divisions

Map of Ontario Census Divisions
Accessible description of Map of Ontario Census Divisions

Introduction

This report presents population projections for Ontario and each of its 49 census divisions, by age and gender, from the base year of 2022 to 2046. These projections were published by the Ontario Ministry of Finance in the summer of 2023.

The Ministry of Finance produces an updated set of population projections every year to reflect the most up-to-date trends and historical data. This update uses as a base the 2022 population estimates from Statistics Canada (released in January 2023 and based on the 2016 Census) and includes changes in the projections to reflect the most recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration.

The new projections include three scenarios for Ontario. The medium, or reference scenario, is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a reasonable forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. Projections for each of the 49 census divisions are for the reference scenario only.

The projections do not represent Ontario government policy targets or desired population outcomes, nor do they incorporate explicit economic or planning assumptions. They are developed using a standard demographic methodology in which assumptions for population growth reflect recent trends in all streams of migration and the continuing evolution of long-term fertility and mortality patterns in each census division. Census division projections are summed to obtain the Ontario total.

The report includes a set of detailed statistical tables on the new projections. Key demographic terms are defined in a glossary.

Highlights

Highlights of the new 2022–2046footnote 1 projections for the reference scenario:

  • Ontario’s population is projected to increase by 43.6 per cent, or almost 6.6 million, over the next 24 years, from an estimated 15.1 million on July 1, 2022 to almost 21.7 million by July 1, 2046.
  • The provincial population is projected to grow rapidly in the short term, increasing at an annual rate of 3.2 per cent in 2022–23, 2.7 per cent in 2023–24, and 2.1 per cent in 2024–25. Thereafter, the rate of growth is projected to ease over time, reaching 1.3 per cent by 2045–46.
  • Net migration is projected to account for 85 per cent of all population growth in the province over the 2022–2046 period, with natural increase accounting for the remaining 15 per cent.
  • The number of seniors aged 65 and over is projected to increase significantly, from 2.8 million or 18.4 per cent of population in 2022, to 4.4 million, or 20.3 per cent by 2046. Rapid growth in the share and number of seniors will continue over the 2022–2031 period as the last cohorts of baby boomers turn age 65. After 2031, the growth in the number of seniors will slow significantly. The share of seniors is projected to peak at 20.9 per cent in 2036.
  • The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to increase moderately over the projection period, from 2.3 million in 2022 to 3.3 million by 2046. The children’s share of population is projected to decrease initially from 15.1 per cent in 2022 to 14.4 per cent by 2026, followed by a slow increase to 15.4 per cent by 2046.
  • The number of Ontarians aged 15–64 is projected to increase from 10.0 million in 2022 to 14.0 million by 2046. This age group is projected to decline as a share of total population for most of the projection period, from a peak of 66.9 per cent in 2024 to 64.0 per cent by 2038, and to increase slowly thereafter to reach 64.4 per cent by 2046.
  • Each of the six regions of the province are projected to see growing populations over the projection period. Central Ontario is projected to be the fastest growing region, with its population increasing by 1.6 million, or 48.1 per cent, from 3.3 million in 2022 to 4.9 million by 2046. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) will see the largest increase in population, adding 3.3 million residents to 2046, with growth of 45.9 per cent, from 7.2 million in 2022 to over 10.5 million by 2046. The GTA’s share of provincial population is projected to rise from 47.8 per cent in 2022 to 48.6 per cent in 2046.
  • All regions will see a shift to an older age structure. The GTA is expected to remain the region with the youngest age structure as a result of strong international migration and positive natural increase.

Projection Results

Reference, low and high-growth scenarios

The Ministry of Finance projections provide three growth scenarios for the population of Ontario to 2046. The medium-growth or reference scenario is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. Population is projected for each of the 49 census divisions for the reference scenario only. Charts and tables in this report are for the reference scenario, unless otherwise stated.

Under all three scenarios, Ontario’s population is projected to experience growth over the 2022–2046 period. In the reference scenario, population is projected to grow 43.6 per cent, or almost 6.6 million, over the next 24 years, from an estimated 15.1 million on July 1, 2022, to almost 21.7 million on July 1, 2046.

The provincial population is projected to grow rapidly in the short term, increasing at an annual rate of 3.2 per cent in 2022–23, 2.7 per cent in 2023–24, and 2.1 per cent in 2024–25. Thereafter, the rate of growth is projected to ease over time, reaching 1.3 per cent by 2045–46.

In the low-growth scenario, population increases 26.0 per cent, or 3.9 million, to reach over 19.0 million people by 2046. In the high-growth scenario, population grows 62.4 per cent, or 9.4 million, to over 24.5 million people by the end of the projection period.

Chart 1: Ontario population, 1971 to 2046
Accessible description of Chart 1: Ontario population, 1971 to 2046

In the low-growth scenario, the annual rate of population growth is projected to decline rapidly over the first five years of the projections, from 1.5 to 0.9 per cent by 2026–27, and then to slowly reach 0.8 per cent by 2046. In the high-growth scenario, the annual population growth rate is also projected to fall quickly over the first five projected years, from 4.9 to 1.8 per cent by 2026–27, and then to reach 1.6 per cent by 2046.

Chart 2: Annual rate of population growth in Ontario, 1971 to 2046
Accessible description of Chart 2: Annual rate of population growth in Ontario, 1971 to 2046

The components of Ontario population change

The contributions of natural increase and net migration to population growth vary from year to year. While natural increase trends evolve slowly, net migration can be more volatile, mostly due to swings in interprovincial migration and variations in international migration. For example, over the past 10 years, the share of population growth coming from net migration has been as high as 93 per cent in 2021–22 and as low as 53 per cent in 2014–15.

Net migration levels to Ontario have averaged about 136,000 per year in the past decade, with a low of 47,000 in 2014–15 and a high of 280,000 in 2021–22. The number of births has been fairly stable, and deaths have been rising, resulting in natural increase declining from 52,000 to 20,000 over the last decade.

Net migration has been affected by COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions. Net migration to Ontario slowed from 202,000 in 2018–19 to 63,000 in 2020–21 but rebounded to 280,000 in 2021–22. In the medium-term, as the net change in non-permanent residents goes from its current elevated levels to its long-term track, net migration will decline from 458,000 in 2022–23 to 186,000 by 2026–27. Subsequently, net migration is projected to increase gradually, reaching 224,000 by 2045–46. The share of population growth accounted for by net migration is projected to decline from 95 per cent in 2022–23 to 82 per cent in 2026–27, and to slowly rise thereafter to reach 83 per cent by 2046.

Chart 3: Contribution of natural increase & net migration to Ontario’s population growth, 1971 to 2046
Accessible description of Chart 3: Contribution of natural increase & net migration to Ontario’s population growth, 1971 to 2046

Partly due to higher-than-normal mortality in 2022–23, natural increase is projected to jump from 26,000 to 34,000 in 2023–24. Beyond 2024, future levels of natural increase are projected to increase slowly to reach 47,000 by 2045–46. The share of population growth accounted for by natural increase is projected to increase initially from 5 per cent in 2022–32 to 18 per cent in 2026–27, and to slowly decline thereafter to reach 17 per cent by 2045–46.

The number of deaths is projected to increase over time, as the large cohorts of baby boomers continue to age. By 2031, all baby boomers will be 65 or older. The annual number of deaths is projected to rise from 123,000 in 2022–23 to 175,000 by 2045–46.

Births are also projected to increase over the projection period, fuelled in the short term by the passage of the baby boom echo (children of baby boomers) through peak fertility years, and subsequently by continued population growth driven by young international migrants. The annual number of births is projected to rise from 148,000 in 2022–23 to 223,000 by 2045–46.

Age structure

By 2046, there will be more people in every single year of age in Ontario compared to 2022, with a sharp increase in the number of seniors. Baby boomers will have significantly increased the number of seniors; children of the baby boom echo generation will be of school-age; and the baby boom echo cohorts, along with a new generation of immigrants, will have boosted the population aged 15–64.

Chart 4: Age pyramid of Ontario’s population, 2022 and 2046
Accessible description of Chart 4: Age pyramid of Ontario’s population, 2022 and 2046

The median age of Ontario’s population is projected to continue its current decline in the short term, falling from 40.4 years in 2022 to 39.2 years by 2026, and will rise slowly thereafter to reach 40.3 years in 2046. The median age for women falls slightly from 41.8 to 41.5 years over the projection period, while for men it is projected to increase marginally from 39.1 to 39.2 years.

The number of seniors aged 65 and over is projected to increase significantly, from 2.8 million or 18.4 per cent of population in 2022, to 4.4 million, or 20.3 per cent by 2046. In 2016, for the first time, seniors accounted for a larger share of population than children aged 0–14.

By the early 2030s, once all baby boomers have reached age 65, the growth in the number of seniors will slow significantly. The share of seniors is projected to peak at 20.9 per cent in 2036. The annual growth rate of the senior age group is projected to slow from an average of 3.1 per cent over 2022–31 to 1.0 per cent by the end of the projection period.

The older age groups will experience the fastest growth among seniors. The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to more than double in size, from 1.2 million in 2022 to almost 2.6 million by 2046. The number of people in the 90+ group will triple, from 139,000 to 417,000.

A substantial imbalance exists in the proportions of women and men in older age groups, as a result of men’s lower life expectancy. The proportion of women among the oldest seniors is projected to remain higher than that of men but will decline slightly as male life expectancy is projected to increase relatively faster. In 2022, there were 33 per cent more women than men in the 75+ age group. By 2046, it is projected that there will be 25 per cent more women than men in the 75+ age group.

Chart 5: Proportion of population aged 0–14, 15–64 and 65+ in Ontario, 1971 to 2046
Accessible description of Chart 5: Proportion of population aged 0–14, 15–64 and 65+ in Ontario, 1971 to 2046

The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to increase moderately over the projection period, from 2.3 million in 2022 to 3.3 million by 2046. The children’s share of population is projected to decrease initially from 15.1 per cent in 2022 to 14.4 per cent by 2026, followed by a slow increase to 15.4 per cent by 2046.

The number of Ontarians aged 15–64 is projected to increase from 10.0 million in 2022 to 14.0 million by 2046. This age group is projected to decline as a share of total population for most of the projection period, from a peak of 66.9 per cent in 2024 to 64.0 per cent by 2038, and to increase slowly thereafter to reach 64.4 per cent by 2046.

The growth rate of the population aged 15–64 is projected to quickly trend lower initially to an average of 0.8 per cent annually over the late 2020s, a pace of change similar to that observed over the 2010s. Thereafter, as the children of the baby boom echo begin to reach age 15 and strong international migration continues, the pace of annual growth of the 15–64 age group is projected to accelerate, reaching 1.3 per cent in 2045–46.

Chart 6: Pace of growth of population age groups 0–14, 15–64 and 65+ in Ontario, 1971 to 2046
Accessible description of Chart 6: Pace of growth of population age groups 0–14, 15–64 and 65+ in Ontario, 1971 to 2046

Within the 15–64 age group, the number of youth (those aged 15–24) is projected to increase throughout the projection period, from 1.9 million in 2022 to 2.8 million by 2046. The youth share of total population is projected to increase initially from 12.6 per cent in 2022 to 13.8 per cent by 2026, followed by a gradual decline to 13.1 per cent by 2046.

The number of people aged 25–44 is projected to increase during the projection period, from 4.2 million in 2022 to 6.1 million by 2046, while their share of population is projected to initially increase from 28.0 to 29.6 per cent by 2033, followed by a decline to 27.9 per cent by 2046.

The number of people aged 45–64 is projected to be fairly stable at 3.9 million until 2029. Growth of this age group is projected to pick up in the early 2030s, to reach 5.1 million by 2046. Its share of population is projected to initially decline from 25.9 in 2022 to 21.7 per cent by 2034, and to resume growing to reach 23.4 per cent by 2046.

Demographic determinants of regional population change

The main demographic determinants of regional population trends are the current age structure of the population, the pace of natural increase, and the migratory movements in and out of each of Ontario’s regions. These determinants vary substantially among the 49 census divisions that comprise the six geographical regions of Ontario and drive significant differences in demographic projections.

The current age structure of each region has a strong influence on projected regional births and deaths. A region with a higher share of its current population in older age groups will likely experience more deaths in the future than a region of comparable size with a younger population. Similarly, a region with a large share of young adults in its population is expected to see more births than a region of similar size with an older age structure. Also, since migration rates vary by age, the age structure of a region or census division will have an impact on the migration of its population.

Due to the general aging of the population, most census divisions in Ontario were experiencing negative natural increase, where deaths exceed births, even period before the pandemic. This is projected to continue over the projection period. Although they represent a majority, the combined population of the 29 census divisions with negative natural increase by 2046 will account for only 18 per cent of Ontario’s.

Many census divisions in Ontario where natural increase previously was the main or even sole contributor to population growth have already started to see their population growth slow. This trend is projected to continue as the population ages further.

Chart 7: Evolution of natural increase by census division, 2022 to 2046
Accessible description of Chart 7: Evolution of natural increase by census division, 2022 to 2046

Migration is the most important factor contributing to population growth for Ontario and for most of its regions. Net migration gains, whether from international sources, other parts of Canada or other regions of Ontario, are projected to continue to be the major source of population growth for almost all census divisions.

Large urban areas, especially the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), which receive most of the international migration to Ontario, are projected to experience the strongest population growth. For other regions such as Central Ontario, the continuation of migration gains from other parts of the province will be a key source of population increase. Some census divisions of Northern Ontario tend to receive only a small share of international migration while experiencing net out-migration, mostly among young adults, which reduces projected population growth.

Regional population growth

The GTA is projected to see the largest increase in population among regions, accounting for just over 50 per cent of Ontario’s net population growth to 2046. The GTA’s population is projected to increase from 7.2 million in 2022 to over 10.5 million in 2046. The region’s share of total Ontario population is projected to rise from 47.8 per cent in 2022 to 48.6 per cent in 2046.

Chart 8: Population of Ontario regions, 2022 and 2046
Accessible description of Chart 8: Population of Ontario regions, 2022 and 2046

Within the GTA, Toronto’s population is projected to rise from 3.03 million in 2022 to 4.20 million in 2046, adding 1,171,000 people, the largest population gain projected among census divisions. Nevertheless, Toronto’s projected population growth rate of 38.7 per cent to 2046 is slightly slower than the provincial rate of 43.6 per cent. The four census divisions of the suburban GTA are projected to add a total of over 2.1 million people over the period. Peel (62.6%), Halton (59.5%) and Durham (43.8%) are projected to grow faster than the average for Ontario, while York’s population is projected to grow at a pace (36.4%) slower than the province as a whole.

Chart 9: Population growth by census division over 2022 to 2046
Accessible description of Chart 9: Population growth by census division over 2022 to 2046

Central Ontario is projected to be the fastest growing region of the province, adding 1.59 million residents for growth of 48.1 per cent, from 3.31 million in 2022 to 4.91 million in 2046. The region’s share of provincial population is projected to rise slightly from 21.9 to 22.6 per cent during the same period. Four census divisions of Central Ontario are projected to continue experiencing population growth significantly above the provincial average over the projection period: Waterloo, the fastest growing census division in Ontario at 67.6 per cent, Dufferin at 59.5 per cent, Wellington at 57.2 per cent, and Simcoe at 49.7 per cent. Hamilton is also projected to grow slightly faster than the provincial average at 44.1 per cent.

The population of Eastern Ontario is projected to grow 41.7 per cent over the projection period, from 1.98 million to 2.80 million. Ottawa is projected to grow fastest (54.5 per cent) from 1.07 million in 2022 to 1.66 million in 2046. All other Eastern Ontario census divisions are also projected to grow, but below the provincial average, with growth ranging from 15.1 per cent in Prince Edward to 38.7 per cent in Lanark.

The population of Southwestern Ontario is projected to grow from 1.77 million in 2022 to 2.50 million in 2046, an increase of 40.9 per cent. Growth rates within Southwestern Ontario vary, with Middlesex and Oxford growing fastest (53.7 and 53.6 per cent respectively), and Chatham-Kent and Lambton growing at the slowest pace (14.9 and 18.6 per cent respectively).

The population of Northern Ontario is projected to grow slowly over the projection horizon, with an increase of 14.6 per cent, from 821,000 in 2022 to 941,000 by 2046. Within the North, the Northeast is projected to see population growth of 96,000 or 16.7 per cent, from 579,000 to 676,000. The Northwest is projected to experience growth of 23,000 or 9.7 per cent, from 242,000 to 265,000.

In the past, Northern Ontario’s positive natural increase offset part of the losses it experienced through net migration. However, while the North has recently seen modest net migration gains, its natural increase has turned negative.

Table A: Population Shares of Ontario Regions, 1986 to 2046

Share of Ontario Population (%)1986199620062016202620362046
GTA41.443.045.847.848.248.548.6
Central21.822.122.021.622.022.322.6
East14.013.813.213.112.812.812.9
Southwest14.113.412.611.711.811.611.5
Northeast6.25.44.54.13.73.43.1
Northwest2.62.31.91.71.51.31.2

Sources: Statistics Canada, 1986–2016, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Regional age structure

All regions are projected to see a continuing shift to an older age composition of their population. The largest shifts in age structure are projected to take place in census divisions, many in northern and rural areas, where natural increase and net migration are projected to remain or become negative. The GTA is expected to remain the region with the youngest age structure, a result of strong international migration and positive natural increase. The Northeast is projected to remain the region with the oldest age structure.

In 2022, the share of seniors aged 65 and over in regional population ranged from a low of 16.2 per cent in the GTA to a high of 23.3 per cent in the Northeast. Among census divisions, it ranged from 14.4 per cent in Peel to 36.1 per cent in Haliburton.

By 2046, the share of seniors in regions is projected to range from 18.3 per cent in the GTA to 25.4 per cent in the Northeast. Among census divisions, it is projected to range from 15.4 per cent in Peel to 38.5 per cent in Haliburton.

Chart 10: Share of seniors in population by census division in 2046
Accessible description of Chart 10: Share of seniors in population by census division in 2046

Even as the share of seniors in census divisions located in and around the suburban GTA is projected to remain lower than the provincial average, the increase in the number of seniors will be highest in this area.

Chart 11: Growth in number of seniors by census division, 2022 to 2046
Accessible description of Chart 11: Growth in number of seniors by census division, 2022 to 2046

The number of seniors is projected grow by 75 per cent in the suburban GTA. Conversely, the number of seniors grows most slowly (less than 20 per cent) in Timiskaming and Thunder Bay.

The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to increase in all 6 regions over the projection period. However, the share of children in every region is projected to remain fairly stable throughout the projections. In 2022, the highest share of children among regions was in the Northwest at 16.6 per cent; the Northeast had the lowest share at 14.3 per cent. By 2046, the Northeast is projected to remain the region with the lowest share of children at 14.7 per cent while the highest share is projected to be found in the Southwest at 16.3 per cent.

Waterloo, Peel, Dufferin, and Halton are projected to record growth of over 60 per cent in the number of children aged 0–14 over the 2022–2046 period. Conversely, Kenora, Cochrane, Thunder Bay, and Rainy River are projected to see less than 10 per cent growth in the number of children aged 0–14 over that period. In 2022, the highest share of children was found in Kenora at 21.2 per cent and the lowest share in Haliburton at 9.5 per cent. By 2046, Kenora is projected to still have the highest share of children at 19.6 per cent, while Haliburton is projected to continue to have the lowest at 9.2 per cent.

Chart 12: Growth in number of children aged 0–14 by census division, 2022 to 2046
Accessible description of Chart 12: Growth in number of children aged 0–14 by census division, 2022 to 2046

The share of population aged 15–64, which ranged from 62.4 per cent in the Northeast to 69.0 per cent in the GTA in 2022, is projected to decline to 2046 in every region. The share of this age group is projected to range from 60.0 per cent of population in the Northeast to 66.6 per cent in the GTA by 2046.

While the share of population aged 15–64 is projected to decrease in every census division of the province except for Bruce (+0.1 percentage point), the number of people in this age group is projected to increase in all 49 census divisions. The highest share of people aged 15–64 in 2022 was in Toronto (70.6 per cent) while the lowest was in Haliburton (54.4 per cent). By 2046, Toronto is projected to remain the region with the highest share of population in this age group (69.1 per cent), followed by Peel, Waterloo, and Ottawa. Prince Edward (50.7 per cent) and Haliburton (52.2 per cent) are projected to have the lowest shares by 2046.

Methodology and Assumptions

Projections methodology

The methodology used in the Ministry of Finance’s long-term population projections is the cohort-component method, essentially a demographic accounting system. The calculation starts with the base-year population (2022) distributed by age and sex.

A separate analysis and projection of each component of population growth is made for each year, starting with births. Then, projections of deaths and the five migration components (immigration, emigration, net change in non-permanent residents, interprovincial in- and out-migration, and intraprovincial in- and out-migration) are also generated and added to the population cohorts to obtain the population of the subsequent year, by age and sex.

This methodology is followed for each of the 49 census divisions. The Ontario-level population is obtained by summing the projected census division populations.

It should be noted that the population projections are demographic, founded on assumptions about births, deaths and migration over the projection period. Assumptions are based on the analysis of the long-term and the most recent trends of these components, as well as expectations of future direction. For Ontario, the degree of uncertainty inherent in projections is represented by the range between the low- and high-growth scenarios, with the reference scenario representing the most likely outcome.

Base population

This report includes demographic projections released by the Ministry of Finance that use the latest population estimates based on the 2016 Census adjusted for net under-coverage. Specifically, the projections use Statistics Canada’s preliminary postcensal population estimates for July 1, 2022 as a base.

As well as providing a new starting point for total population by age and sex, updating the projections to a new base alters the projected age structure and population growth in each census division. It also has an impact on many components of population growth that are projected by using age-specific rates, such as births, deaths, and several of the migration streams.

Fertility

The projected number of births for any given year is obtained by applying age-specific fertility rates to cohorts of women in the reproductive age group, ages 15 to 49. The projection model relies on four parametersfootnote 2 to generate the annual number of births. The first of these parameters, the total fertility rate (TFR), reflects the level of fertility while the other three parameters (the mean age at maternity, the skewness and the variance of the distribution) reflect the timing, or age, at which women give birth. These parameters are calibrated to generate age-specific fertility rates that closely follow recent trends.

Assumptions are based on a careful analysis of past age-specific fertility trends in Ontario and a review of fertility trends elsewhere in Canada and in other countries. A general and common trend is that a growing proportion of women are giving birth in their 30s and early 40s. The overall decline in the fertility rate among young women is accompanied by a rise in fertility rates among older women. Over the past 20 years, teenagers and women in their early 20s have experienced the sharpest declines in fertility rates. Fertility rates of women in their 30s and older, which were rising moderately over the 1990s and more rapidly over most of the 2000s, have shown a slower pace of increase in more recent years. These are the same cohorts of women who postponed births during their 20s and are now having children in their 30s and early 40s.

Ontario’s total fertility rate (TFR), which stood at 3.8 children per woman around 1960, fell below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman in 1972. Over the rest of the 1970s, the TFR fell rapidly toward the 1.40 to 1.70 range where it was hovering until recently. The latest data available for Ontario (2021) show a TFR of 1.37. Fertility rates are unlikely to return to the highs observed in the 1950s and early 1960s. Rather, it is believed that relatively small fluctuations around values below the replacement level are more likely.

In the reference scenario, the TFR is assumed to decline initially from 1.39 in 2022–23 to 1.37 by 2027–28, and to subsequently rise slowly as younger women’s fertility rates stabilize while those of older women continue to gradually increase, reaching 1.50 children per woman in 2046.

In the low- and high-growth scenarios, fertility is assumed to follow a similar pattern of initial decline followed by a slight increase. By 2046, the TFR reaches 1.30 children per woman in the low-growth scenario and 1.70 in the high-growth scenario.

Fertility assumptions at the census division level

The most recent complete data for census divisions (2019) shows that TFRs range from a high of 2.09 in Kenora to a low of 1.17 in Toronto. The projected parameters for fertility at the census division level are modelled to maintain regional differences. The census division-to-province ratio for mean age at fertility in the most recent period is assumed to remain constant. The variance and skewness of fertility distributions for census divisions evolve over the projection period following the same absolute changes of these parameters at the Ontario level.

Chart 13: Total fertility rate of Ontario women, 1979 to 2046
Accessible description of Chart 13: Total fertility rate of Ontario women, 1979 to 2046

Mortality

The population of Ontario has one of the highest life expectancies in Canada and the developed world. The latest data shows that life expectancy at birth in Ontario was 84.4 years for females and 79.9 years for males in 2020. Deaths related to opioid use and the COVID-19 pandemic are having negative impacts on the pace of life expectancy improvements in the short term. However, the generally accepted view is that life expectancy will continue to rise over the long term in Canada and around the world.

Up to the mid-1990s, annual gains in life expectancy were becoming smaller and it was expected that future improvements would continue at this slowing speed. The pace of annual gains in life expectancy then picked up over the next two decades, and the progression of life expectancy became more linear. Until the mid-2010s, average gains in life expectancy were in the order of 0.16 years per year for females and 0.23 years for males. However, in recent years and even before the pandemic, average life expectancy was not rising in Ontario, partly due to an increase in opioid-related deaths, but mostly as a result of a slowdown in the improvement of survival rates from heart diseases, which was the main cause of increases in life expectancy over the past decades. It is assumed that other factors, such as continued progress in fighting cancer, will drive increases in the average lifespan at a gradual pace over the projection period.

The projected number of deaths each year is obtained by applying projected age-specific mortality rates to population cohorts of corresponding ages. Projections of age-specific death rates are derivedfootnote 3 from trends related to the pace of improvement in overall life expectancy and the age patterns of mortality.

All three projection scenarios for Ontario reflect a continuation of the gains recorded in average life expectancy. Male life expectancy is expected to progress at a faster pace than that of females under the long-term mortality assumptions for each of the three scenarios. This is consistent with recent trends where males have recorded larger gains in life expectancy than females. This has resulted in a shrinking of the gap in life expectancy between males and females, a trend that is projected to continue. Furthermore, reflecting current trends, future gains in life expectancy are modelled to be concentrated at older ages and to be smaller for infants.

In the reference scenario, life expectancy in Ontario is projected to continue increasing, but slower than the average observed over the last two decades, with the pace of increase gradually diminishing over the projection period. By 2046, life expectancy is projected to reach 84.3 years for males and 87.6 years for females. This represents total life expectancy gains of 4.4 years for males and 3.3 years for females between 2020 and 2046.

In the low-growth scenario, life expectancy increases at a slower pace, to 82.8 years for males and 86.4 years for females by 2046. In the high-growth scenario, life expectancy reaches 86.0 and 89.1 years in 2046 for males and females respectively.

Table B: Life expectancy in Ontario, 1986 to 2046

Item1986199620062016202620362046
Males at birth73.775.878.780.480.882.684.3
Males at age 6514.916.118.219.620.321.622.9
Females at birth79.981.283.284.485.186.487.6
Females at age 6519.119.821.322.423.024.025.0

Sources: Statistics Canada, 1986–2016, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Chart 14: Life expectancy at birth by sex in Ontario, 1979 to 2046
Accessible description of Chart 14: Life expectancy at birth by sex in Ontario, 1979 to 2046

Mortality assumptions at the census division level

At the census division level, the mortality assumptions were developed using a ratio methodology. The Ontario-level mortality structure was applied to each census division’s age structure over the most recent six years of comparable data and the expected number of deaths was computed. This was then compared to the actual annual number of deaths for each census division over this period to create ratios of actual-to-expected number of deaths. These ratios were then multiplied by provincial age-specific death rates to create death rates for each census division. These were then applied to the corresponding census division population to derive the number of deaths for each census division.

An analysis of the ratio of actual-to-expected deaths for each census division did not reveal a consistent pattern or movement toward a convergence or divergence among regions over time. For this reason, the most recent six-year average ratio for each census division was held constant over the projection period.

Components of net migration

The following sections discuss assumptions and methodology for the components of net migration, including immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents, interprovincial migration and intraprovincial migration.

Immigration

Immigration levels in Canada are determined by federal government policy. The federal Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) sets the national target and target-range for the level of immigration to be achieved over the following year(s). For calendar year 2023, the target is set at 465,000, with a plan for 485,000 in 2024 and 500,000 in 2025. These represent a significant increase from the targets set in recent years. The share of immigrants to Canada settling in Ontario declined in calendar year 2022, from 49.1 per cent in 2021 to 42.3 per cent. These lower shares are projected to continue in the short-term, before increasing lightly in the medium-term.

In the reference scenario, immigration levels are projected to reach about 220,000 in Ontario by 2025–26, resulting in an immigration rate of 1.35 per cent. Over the rest of the projection period, the number of immigrants increases slowly over time as population grows, such that annual immigration is projected to reach 257,000 by 2045–46. The immigration rate will gradually decline after 2025–26 to reach 1.2 per cent by the end of the projection period.

Chart 15: Rate of immigration to Ontario, 1971 to 2046
Accessible description of Chart 15: Rate of immigration to Ontario, 1971 to 2046

Immigration levels in the low-growth scenario are set at 85 per cent of reference scenario levels in the long term, resulting in immigration levels rising to 218,000 by 2045–46. In the high-growth scenario, immigration levels are set at 115 per cent of reference scenario levels in the long term, resulting in immigration rising strongly to reach 296,000 by 2045–46.

Immigration assumptions at the census division level

Projected immigration shares for each census division are based on the trends observed in the distribution of immigrants by census division over the recent past. These shares evolve throughout the projection period following established trends. The average age-sex distribution pattern for immigrants observed over the past five years is assumed to remain constant over the entire projection period. Nearly 90 per cent of immigrants coming to Ontario in 2021–22 were aged 0 to 44.

Chart 16: Immigration to Ontario, 1971 to 2046
Accessible description of Chart 16: Immigration to Ontario, 1971 to 2046

Emigration

Total emigration is defined as the gross flow of international emigration, minus returning emigrants, plus the net variation in the number of temporarily emigrants. The level of total emigration from Ontario was 17,600 in 2021–22, slightly higher than the average of 15,600 over the two years before the pandemic.

The number of emigrants is difficult to estimate with a high degree of accuracy because of limited information. Statistics Canada publishes annual estimates of these flows based on a variety of sources, such as tax data and statistics from the American Community Survey and the Department of Homeland Security. However, these estimates are believed to be lower than the actual number of people who emigrate from Ontario each year. This under-estimation can help explain the difference between population growth as measured by Census enumerations adjusted for net under-coverage and estimated population growth by Statistics Canada over the same period.

Over the last intercensal period from 2011 to 2016, population estimates from Statistics Canada overestimated population growth in Ontario by about 11,800 people each year on average. It is thought that under-estimation of emigration is part of the explanation. In order to account for this unexplained element of Ontario’s estimated population growth trends, the projections assume that emigration fully accounted for the overestimation. Therefore, an annual adjustment of about 11,800 to emigration is applied for each year of the projections.

In the reference scenario, the average emigration rates by age and sex for each census division over the past five years are used to model the projected number of people emigrating annually from each census division. These rates are then adjusted to factor in the noted adjustment for the overestimation in the postcensal estimates of population. The modelling is dynamic, taking into account the annual changes in age structure within census divisions. For Ontario as a whole, this results in the number of emigrants increasing gradually over the projection period to reach 50,100 by 2045–46.

In the low-growth scenario, emigration rates by age and sex used in the reference scenario are increased by 30 per cent, making them 130 per cent of recently-observed rates. This results in emigration levels reaching 57,600 by 2045–46.

In the high-growth scenario, emigration rates by age and sex used in the reference scenario are reduced by 30 per cent, making them equivalent to 70 per cent of recently-observed rates. This results in the number of emigrants reaching 38,500 by 2045–46.

Chart 17: Emigration from Ontario, 1971 to 2046
Accessible description of Chart 17: Emigration from Ontario, 1971 to 2046

Non-permanent residents

There were almost 700,000 non-permanent residents (NPRs: e.g., foreign students, temporary foreign workers, refugee claimants) living in Ontario on July 1, 2022. These foreign residents are part of the base population since they are counted in the Census and are included in the components of population change. The year-to-year change in the total number of NPRs is accounted for as a component of population growth in the projections. Determining assumptions for this component is complicated by the significant annual fluctuations in this group.

The increase in the number NPRs in Ontario averaged 77,000 annually over the three calendar years before the pandemic. During 2020 and 2021, travel restrictions and immigration initiatives targeting candidates already in Canada under temporary residence permits slowed the increase in the number of non-permanent residents in Ontario. However, 2022 saw a record increase of 306,000 non-permanent residents in the province. Over the past 30 years, Ontario gained on average 16,100 non-permanent residents annually. As a proportion of total population, the corresponding rate was 0.13 per cent on average each year.

Over the next few months, net gains in NPRs will continue to be affected by the special measures put in place by the federal government in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In particular, the Canada-Ukraine authorization for emergency travel (CUAET) was created to help Ukrainians and their family members come to Canada as quickly as possible and to provide them with the ability to work and study while in Canada under multi-year temporary residence permits. The number of CUAET permits has not been capped. Over one million Ukrainians have applied, 700,000 have been approved to date, and 153,000 have already arrived in Canada. Based on the latest information and despite the high level of uncertainty, assumptions have been made to include the arrival of 80,000 CUAET permit holders in Ontario in 2022–23, with an additional 110,000 during 2023–24. It is assumed that they will leave Canada as their permits expire or be gradually absorbed into the permanent resident population through immigration.

The reference scenario reflects long-term trends in the annual change in the number of NPRs by setting the long-term yearly gain at 0.08 per cent of population. The long-term assumptions for each projection scenario are reached after a transition period to reflect the higher net gains expected in the short term, including CUAET permit holders.

For 2022–23, the reference scenario net gain is set at 360,000, followed by net gains of 265,000 in 2023–24, 145,000 in 2024–25, 75,000 in 2025–26, and 13,000 in 2026–27. The low- and high-growth scenarios are set as a range of 50 per cent below and above the reference scenario net gain in 2022–23 and 2023–24, 40 per cent in 2024–25, 30 per cent in 2025–26, and 20 per cent over the rest of the projection period.

Non-permanent resident assumptions at the census division level

Projected shares of the net change in non-permanent residents for each census division, as well as their distributions by age and sex, are based on the shares observed over the last five years. The distribution pattern is assumed to remain constant over the projection period.

Chart 18: Annual change in the number of non-permanent residents living in Ontario, 1971 to 2046
Accessible description of Chart 18: Annual change in the number of non-permanent residents living in Ontario, 1971 to 2046

Sources: Statistics Canada, 1971–2022, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections

Interprovincial migration

Interprovincial migration is a component of population growth that fluctuates significantly from year to year. Although Ontario remains a major province of attraction for migrants from some other provinces, trend analysis of the last three decades reveals a mixed pattern of several years of gains followed by several years of losses. This pattern is usually closely tied to economic cycles.

Over the past 30 years, net interprovincial migration has not contributed to Ontario’s population growth, with net losses averaging about 4,000 people per year. Between 2015 and 2020, net interprovincial migration to Ontario had been positive. However, the most recent data shows a reversal of this trend, with net losses of 18,000 in 2020–21 and 47,000 in 2021–22.

In the reference scenario, annual net interprovincial migration to Ontario is set at -50,000 for 2022–23, reflecting the most recent data, followed by net losses of 40,000 in 2023–24, 30,000 in 2024–25, 20,000 in 2025–26, and 10,000 in 2026–27. The long-term assumption of a net gain of zero is then reached by 2027–28, remaining at that level for the rest of the projection period.

The low- and high-growth scenarios are set as a range of 10,000 above and below the reference scenario net loss in 2022–23 and 2023–24. This range is narrowed to 7,500 in 2024–25, and to 5,000 over the rest of the projection period.

The annual in-flows corresponding to the long-term net migration levels in the low-growth, reference and high-growth scenarios are 62,500, 65,000 and 67,500 respectively. The corresponding annual out-flows are 67,500, 65,000 and 62,500.

Chart 19: Net interprovincial migration in Ontario, 1971 to 2046
Accessible description of Chart 19: Net interprovincial migration in Ontario, 1971 to 2046
Interprovincial migration assumptions at the census division level

For each census division, interprovincial migration flows reflect migration rates by age and sex observed during the last five years and vary over the projection period following Ontario-level fluctuations. Each census division’s share of Ontario inflow and outflow of interprovincial migrants over the last five years is applied to projected flows for the province and held constant throughout the projection period.

Intraprovincial migration

At the census division level, intraprovincial migration, or the movement of population from one census division to another within the province, is a significant component of population growth. This component directly affects population growth only at the census division and regional levels.

The annual number of intraprovincial migrants in Ontario has fluctuated within the 350,000 to 460,000 range over the past 20 years. Over the projection period, the annual number of intraprovincial migrants is projected to increase from 451,000 in 2022–23 to 506,000 in 2045–46. The resulting rate of intraprovincial migration in Ontario declines slightly over the projection period, from 3.0 per cent in 2022–23 to 2.4 per cent by 2045–46.

Intraprovincial migration assumptions at the census division level

The projected number of people by age, leaving each census division for each year of the projections, as well as their destination within the province, is modelled using origin-destination migration rates by age and census division over the past five years. Because migration rates are different for each census division and because age groups have different origin-destination behaviours, the methodology provides an approach to project movers based on observed age and origin-destination migration patterns. The modelling is dynamic, taking into account the annual changes in age structure within census divisions.

The evolution of intraprovincial migration patterns in each census division was studied to identify specific trends and the intraprovincial migration rate assumptions were adjusted to account for these trends.

Glossary

Baby boom generation
People born during the period following World War II, from 1946 to 1965, marked by a significant increase in fertility rates and in the number of births.
Baby boom echo
People born during the period 1972 to 1992. Children of baby boomers.
Cohort
Represents a group of persons who have experienced a specific demographic event during a given period, which can be a year. For example, the birth cohort of 1966 consists of the number of persons who were born in 1966.
GTA
The Greater Toronto Area, comprised of the census divisions of Toronto, Durham, Halton, Peel and York.
International migration
Movement of population between Ontario and a foreign country. International migration includes immigrants, emigrants and non-permanent residents. Net international migration is the difference between the number of people entering and the number of people leaving the province from foreign countries.
Interprovincial migration
Movement of population between Ontario and the rest of Canada. Net interprovincial migration is the difference between the number of people entering Ontario from the rest of Canada and the number of people leaving Ontario for elsewhere in Canada.
Intraprovincial migration
Movement of population between the 49 census divisions within Ontario. Net intraprovincial migration for a given census division is the difference between the number of    people   moving from the rest of Ontario to this census division and the number of people leaving it for elsewhere in the province.
Life expectancy
A statistical measure reflecting the average number of years of life remaining for members of a particular population at a specific age if they were to experience during their lives the age-specific mortality rates observed in a given year.
Median age
The median age is the age at which exactly one half of the population is older, and the other half is younger. This measure is often used to compare age structures between jurisdictions.
Natural increase
The number of births minus the number of deaths.
Net migration
Difference between the number of people entering and the number of people leaving a given area. This includes all the migration components included in net international migration, net interprovincial migration and net intraprovincial migration (for sub-provincial jurisdictions).
Non-permanent residents
Foreign citizens living in Ontario (e.g., international students, foreign workers, and refugee claimants).
Population aging
An expression used to describe shifts in the age distribution of the population toward more people of older ages. One indicator of population aging is an increasing share of seniors (ages 65+) in the population.
Population estimates
Measures of current and historical resident population derived using Census and administrative data.
Total fertility rate
The sum of age-specific fertility rates during a given year. Indicates the average number of children that a generation of women would have if, over the course of their reproductive life, they had fertility rates identical to those of the year considered.

Statistical tables

View the related statistical tables at Ontario's Open Data Catalogue

Accessible chart descriptions

Chart 1: Ontario population, 1971 to 2046

This line chart shows the estimated total population of Ontario from 1971 to 2022, and the projection to 2046 for the three scenarios (reference, high and low). Over the historical period, Ontario’s population increased from 7.8 million in 1971 to 15.1 million in 2022. Over the projections period 2022-2046, the three scenarios gradually diverge. In the reference scenario, total population reaches 21.7 million in 2046. Ontario’s population reaches 24.5 million in the high scenario and 19.0 million in the low scenario at the end of the projection period.

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Chart 2: Annual rate of population growth in Ontario, 1971 to 2046

This chart shows historical annual growth rates of Ontario’s population as bars from 1971 to 2022, and projected growth rates as lines for the three scenarios (reference, high and low). Over the historical period, annual growth rates start at 1.5% in 1971-72, and then decline to reach 0.8% in 1980-81. This is followed by higher growth rates culminating at 2.7% in 1988-89, with a lower peak of 1.8% in 2000-01, trending lower to 0.7% in 2014-15, and finally reaching 2.0% in 2021-22. The projected annual growth rate of Ontario’s population in the reference scenario is 3.2% in 2022-23, trending down thereafter to reach 1.3% in 2045-46. In the high scenario, annual population growth goes from 4.9% in 2022-23 to 1.6% over the projection period. In the low scenario, population growth goes from 1.5% in 2022-23 to 0.8% in 2045-46.

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Chart 3: Contribution of natural increase & net migration to Ontario’s population growth, 1971 to 2046

This area chart shows the annual contribution of natural increase and net migration to Ontario’s population growth from 1971 to 2046. Over the historical period, natural increase was more stable than net migration, starting at about 69,000 in 1971-72, with an intermediate high point of 79,000 in 1990-91, and a declining trend to 20,000 by 2021-22. Over the projection period, natural increase is projected to increase gradually, reaching 47,000 by 2045-46. Net Migration was more volatile over the historical period, starting at about 45,000 in 1971-72, with a low point of 10,000 in 1978-79, peaks of 194,000 in 1988-89, 168,000 in 2000-01, and 280,000 in 2021-22. Annual net migration is projected to decrease initially from 458,000 in 2022-23 to 186,000 in 2026-27 and rise gradually for the rest of the projection period to reach 224,000 by 2045-46.

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Chart 4: Age pyramid of Ontario’s population, 2022 and 2046

This population pyramid shows the number of people of each age in Ontario in 2022 and 2046 separately for males and females. In 2022, the pyramid starts at the bottom with about 70,000 each for males and females aged zero, and gradually widens to over 110,000 people per cohort in their late 20s. This is followed by a slight narrowing of the pyramid to about 90,000 at late 40s ages, and a peak around 110,000 at late-50s ages. The pyramid subsequently narrows to only a few thousand people per cohort at ages 95+. The 2046 line starts at around 110,000 each for both males and females at age zero with steep peak above 150,000 after age 20, followed by a gradual decrease to around 150,000 near age 45, and a further decline to age 95+.

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Chart 5: Proportion of population aged 0–14, 15–64 and 65+ in Ontario, 1971 to 2046

This chart has three lines showing the evolution of the share of Ontario’s population in age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ over the 1971-2046 period. The highest proportion is aged 15-64 and is fairly stable over the historical period between 60% and 70%, with a declining trend starting around 2010. Over the projection period, the share of people aged 15-64 is projected to fall from 66.5% to 64.4%. The share of population aged 0-14 is seen falling gradually from 28.4% in 1971 to 15.1% in 2022, with a further decline to 14.4% by 2066, and an increase to 15.4% by 2046. The share of seniors increases slowly from 8.3% in 1971 to 18.4% in 2022, and more rapidly over the first half of the projection period to reach 20.9% in 2036 and subsequently declining to 20.3% by 2046. The share of seniors surpassed that of children in 2016.

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Chart 6: Pace of growth of population age groups 0–14, 15–64 and 65+ in Ontario, 1971 to 2046

This line chart shows the pace of annual growth of population age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ in Ontario from 1971 to 2046. The 65+ age group grows faster than the other two groups for most of the historical and the first half of the projection period, with a peak of 4.3% in 2011-12 and a low close to 0.8% in the early 2040s. The annual pace of growth of the 15-64 age group is seen trending gradually lower from 2.4% in 1971-72 to 0.2% in 2014-15, followed by a peak of 3.7% in 2022-23, a decline to 0.8% by 2026-27 and then rising to 1.3% by 2045-46. The annual growth rate of the 0-14 age group is the most volatile, recoding declines from 1971 to 1982 with a trough of -2.3% in 1978-79, and then again from 2002 to 2011. Over the projection period, growth in the number of children is projected to peak at 2.1% in the mid-2030s, ending at 1.4% by 2045-46.

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Chart 7: Evolution of natural increase by census division, 2022 to 2046

This map shows the evolution of natural increase by census division in Ontario over the projection period 2021-46. The census divisions are split in three categories.

Census divisions where natural increase is projected to be negative throughout 2022-2046 include: Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Algoma, Sudbury, Greater Sudbury, Timiskaming, Manitoulin, Parry Sound, Nipissing, Lambton, Chatham-Kent, Grey, Haldimand-Norfolk, Niagara, Muskoka, Haliburton, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough, Northumberland, Hastings, Prince Edward, Lennox & Addington, Frontenac, Renfrew, Lanark, Leeds & Grenville, Prescott & Russell, and Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry.

Two census division where natural increase is projected to be negative in 2021-22, but positive by 2045-46: Huron and Bruce.

Census divisions where natural increase is projected to be positive throughout 2022-2046 include: Kenora, Essex, Middlesex, Elgin, Perth, Oxford, Brant, Waterloo, Wellington, Hamilton, Dufferin, Halton, Peel, York, Simcoe, Toronto, Durham, Ottawa.

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Chart 8: Population of Ontario regions, 2022 and 2046

This chart shows a map of Ontario’s 6 regions with bars showing their total populations in 2022 and 2046.

For 2022, the chart shows total population in millions for each of the regions as:

Northwest 0.24, Northeast 0.58, Southwest 1.8, Central 3.3, GTA 7.2, East 2.0.

For 2046, the chart shows total population in millions for each of the regions as:

Northwest 0.27, Northeast 0.68, Southwest 2.5, Central 4.9, GTA 10.5, East 2.8.

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Chart 9: Population growth by census division over 2022 to 2046

This map shows the population growth by census division in Ontario over the projection period 2022-46. The census divisions are split in four categories.

Census divisions where population is projection to grow between zero and 15% include: Kenora, Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Algoma, Sudbury, Timiskaming, Nipissing, Chatham-Kent.

Census divisions where population is projected to increase between 15% and 30% include: Manitoulin, Greater Sudbury, Parry Sound, Lambton, Haliburton, Peterborough, Northumberland, Hastings, Prince Edward, Renfrew, Lennox & Addington, Frontenac, Leeds & Grenville, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry.

Census divisions where population is projected to increase between 30% and 40% include: Essex, Elgin, Huron, Bruce, Grey, Haldimand-Norfolk, Niagara, Toronto, York, Kawartha Lakes, Muskoka, Lanark, Prescott & Russell.

Census divisions where population is projected to increase by over 40% include: Middlesex, Oxford, Perth, Wellington, Brant, Dufferin, Simcoe, Waterloo, Halton, Peel, Hamilton, Durham, Ottawa.

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Chart 10: Share of seniors in population by census division in 2046

This map shows the projected share of seniors in the population of Ontario census divisions in 2046. The census divisions are split in four categories.

Census divisions with less than 20% seniors in 2046 include: Kenora, Middlesex, Waterloo, Wellington, Dufferin, Hamilton, Halton, Peel, Toronto, Durham, Ottawa.

Census divisions with between 20% and 25% seniors in 2046 include: Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Greater Sudbury, Essex, Elgin, Perth, Oxford, Brant, Simcoe, York, Frontenac.

Census divisions with between 25% and 30% seniors in 2046 include: Algoma, Sudbury, Manitoulin, Timiskaming, Nipissing, Lambton, Chatham-Kent, Bruce, Huron, Grey, Haldimand-Norfolk, Niagara, Peterborough, Hastings, Renfrew, Lennox & Addington, Lanark, Prescott & Russell, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry.

Census divisions with over 30% seniors in 2046 include: Parry Sound, Muskoka, Haliburton, Kawartha Lakes, Northumberland, Prince Edward, Leeds & Grenville.

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Chart 11: Growth in number of seniors by census division, 2022 to 2046

This map shows the growth in number of seniors in the population of Ontario census divisions between 2022 and 2046. The census divisions are split in four categories.

Census divisions with less than 35% projected growth in number of seniors over 2022-2046 include: Kenora, Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Timiskaming, Algoma, Manitoulin, Sudbury, Greater Sudbury, Nipissing, Lambton, Chatham-Kent, Prince Edward, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry.

Census divisions with between 35% and 50% projected growth in number of seniors over 2022-2046 include: Parry Sound, Essex, Grey, Huron, Bruce, Haliburton, Peterborough, Northumberland, Kawartha Lakes, Hastings, Renfrew, Lennox & Addington, Frontenac, Leeds & Grenville.

Census divisions with between 50% and 70% projected growth in number of seniors over 2022-2046 include: Middlesex, Elgin, Perth, Oxford, Haldimand-Norfolk, Brant, Hamilton, Niagara, Toronto, Muskoka, Lanark.

Census divisions with over 70% projected growth in number of seniors over 2022-2046 include: Waterloo, Wellington, Dufferin, Simcoe, Halton, Peel, York, Durham, Ottawa, Prescott & Russell.

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Chart 12: Growth in number of children aged 0–14 by census division, 2022 to 2046

This map shows the growth in number of children aged 0-14 in the population of Ontario census divisions between 2022 and 2046. The census divisions are split in four categories.

Census divisions with between 0% and 20% projected growth in number of children aged 0-14 over 2022-2046 include: Kenora, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Nipissing, Rainy River, Algoma, Sudbury, Timiskaming, Manitoulin, Chatham-Kent, Prince Edward, Renfrew, Lennox & Addington.

Census divisions with between 20% and 35% projected growth in number of children aged 0-14 over 2022-2046 include: Greater Sudbury, Parry Sound, Essex, Lambton, Perth, Elgin, Brant, Haldimand-Norfolk, Niagara, York, Toronto, Durham, Kawartha Lakes, Haliburton, Peterborough, Hastings, Muskoka, Northumberland, Lanark, Frontenac, Leeds & Grenville, Prescott & Russell, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry.

Census divisions with between 35% and 50% projected growth in number of children aged 0-14 over 2022-2046 include: Essex, Perth, Huron, Bruce, Grey, Elgin, Brant, Haldimand-Norfolk, Niagara, Hamilton, York, Toronto, Durham, Kawartha Lakes, Muskoka, Lanark.

Census divisions with over 50% projected growth in number of children aged 0-14 over 2022-2046 include: Middlesex, Oxford, Waterloo, Wellington, Halton, Dufferin, Peel, Simcoe, Ottawa.

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Chart 13: Total fertility rate of Ontario women, 1979 to 2046

This line chart shows the historical total fertility rate of Ontario women from 1979 to 2021, and projections under the three scenarios for 2023-2046. Over the historical period, the total fertility rate in Ontario has been hovering within a narrow range, going from 1.61 in 1979 to 1.37 in 2021. Under the reference scenario, the total fertility rate is projected to increase from 1.39 in 2022-23 to 1.50 in 2045-46. Under the high scenario, the total fertility rate is projected to increase from 1.50 in 2022-23 to 1.70 in 2045-46. Under the low scenario, the total fertility rate is projected to decline initially from 1.29 in 2022-23, but to reach 1.30 again in 2045-46.

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Chart 14: Life expectancy at birth by sex in Ontario, 1979 to 2046

This line chart shows the historical life expectancy at birth by gender in Ontario from 1979 to 2020, and projections under three scenarios for 2023-2046

For females, life expectancy at birth rose from 78.9 years in 1979 to 84.4 years in 2020. Over the projection period to 2046, life expectancy of females is projected to increase gradually to reach 87.6 years under the reference scenario, 89.1 years under the high scenario, and 86.4 years under the low scenario.

For males, life expectancy at birth rose from 71.8 years in 1979 to 79.9 years in 2020. Over the projection period to 2046, life expectancy of males is projected to increase gradually to reach 84.3 years under the reference scenario, 86.0 years under the high scenario, and 82.8 years under the low scenario.

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Chart 15: Rate of immigration to Ontario, 1971 to 2046

This line chart shows the historical immigration rate to Ontario from 1971 to 2022 and projections under three scenarios to 2046. Over the historical period, the immigration rate was very volatile, starting at 0.79% in 1971-72, rising to 1.49% by 1973-74, declining to a low of 0.44% by the mid-1980, rising again to 1.38% by 1992-93, then falling gradually to reach 0.66% in 2014-15, and rebounding 1.53% to in 2021-22.

Over the projections period 2022-2046, the immigration rate to Ontario is projected initially reach 1.35% in 2024-25 in the reference scenario, 1.57% in the high scenario, and 1.11% in the low scenario. This is followed by gradual changes to 2045-46 in all scenarios to reach 1.20% in the reference scenario, 1.22% in the high scenario, and 1.16% in the low scenario.

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Chart 16: Immigration to Ontario, 1971 to 2046

This chart shows historical annual immigration levels to Ontario from 1971 to 2022 and projections under three scenarios to 2046. Over the historical period, immigration was very volatile, stating at about 62,000 in 1971-72, rising to 120,000 by 1973-74, falling to 40,000 in the mid-1980s, rising to peak at 153,000 in 2001-02, gradually declining thereafter to reach 90,000 in 2014-15, and rebounding to 227,000 in 2021-22.

Immigration to Ontario is projected to increase from 184,000 in 2022-23 to 2577,000 in 2045-46 in the reference scenario, from 230,000 to 296,000 in the high-growth scenario, and from 138,000 to 218,000 in the low-growth scenario.

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Chart 17: Emigration from Ontario, 1971 to 2046

This chart shows historical annual emigration levels from Ontario and residual deviations in Statistics Canada’s estimates from 1971 to 2022, as well as projections of emigration under three scenarios to 2046. Over the historical period, emigration was very volatile, stating at about 13,000 in 1971-72, rising to 22,000 by 1973-74, falling to 8,000 in 1980-81, rising to peak at 27,000 in 1993-94 and hovering below 20,000 since 2016.

During the historical period, the residual deviation ranged from -2,000 in 1987-88 to 22,000 in 2007-08.

Emigration from Ontario is projected to increase from 36,000 in 2022-23 to 50,000 in 2045-46 in the reference scenario, from 25,000 to 39,000 in the high scenario, and from 47,000 to 58,000 in the low scenario.

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Chart 18: Annual change in the number of non-permanent residents living in Ontario, 1971 to 2046

This chart shows historical annual net gains in non-permanent residents in Ontario from 1971 to 2022 and projections under three scenarios to 2046. Over the historical period, the net gain was very volatile, starting with values close to zero in the early 1970s, with a peak of 95,000 in 1988-89, a deep through of -54,000 in 1992-93, and another high level in 2021-22 at 117,000.

The projected annual net gain of non-permanent residents in Ontario in the reference scenario is projected to fall from 360,000 in 2022-23 to 13,000 in 2026-27 and reach 17,000 by 2045-46. In the high scenario, the net gain is projected at 540,000 in 2022-23, 16,000 in 2026-27, reaching 21,000 by 2045-46. In the low scenario a net gain of 180,000 is projected for 2022-23, a gain of 11,000 in 2026-27, with an endpoint of 14,000 for 2045-46.

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Chart 19: Net interprovincial migration in Ontario, 1971 to 2046

This chart shows the historical net interprovincial migration gain in Ontario from 1971 to 2022 and projections under three scenarios to 2046.

Over the historical period, net interprovincial migration followed cycles of net gains followed by net losses. Net interprovincial migration was generally negative during the 1970s, the late 1980s and early 1990s, and from 2003 to 2015. Positive cycles occurred during the early 1980s, the late 1990s, and from 2015 to 2020. In 2021-22, net interprovincial migration to Ontario was -47,000.

In the reference scenario, annual net interprovincial migration is set at -50,000 for 2022-23, rising to zero by 2027-28, and remaining at zero for the rest of the projections. In the high scenario, a net annual interprovincial migration is set at -40,000 for 2022-23, rising to 5,000 by 2027-28, and remaining at that level for the rest of the projections. In the low scenario, net interprovincial migration is set at -60,000 for 2022-23, rising to -5,000 by 2027-28, and remaining at that level for the rest of the projections.

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Map of Ontario census divisions

This map includes the following census divisions:

GTA:

  1. Toronto
  2. Durham
  3. Halton
  4. Peel
  5. York

Central:

  1. Brant
  2. Dufferin
  3. Haldimand–Norfolk
  4. Haliburton
  5. Hamilton
  6. Muskoka
  7. Niagara
  8. Northumberland
  9. Peterborough
  10. Simcoe
  11. Kawartha Lakes
  12. Waterloo
  13. Wellington

East:

  1. Ottawa
  2. Frontenac
  3. Hastings
  4. Lanark
  5. Leeds and Grenville
  6. Lennox and Addington
  7. Prescott and Russell
  8. Prince Edward
  9. Renfrew
  10. Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry

Southwest:

  1. Bruce
  2. Elgin
  3. Essex
  4. Grey
  5. Huron
  6. Chatham–Kent
  7. Lambton
  8. Middlesex
  9. Oxford
  10. Perth

Northeast:

  1. Algoma
  2. Cochrane
  3. Manitoulin
  4. Nippissing
  5. Parry Sound
  6. Greater Sudbury
  7. Sudbury
  8. Timiskaming

Northwest:

  1. Kenora
  2. Rainy River
  3. Thunder Bay

Return to map of Ontario census divisions