Ontario Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of first quarter

Learn about key facts and figures of the province's demographics for the first quarter of 2024.

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Population growth

Ontario’s population reached 15,996,989 on April 1, 2024, with an increase of 85,704 residents during the first quarter of 2024. This compares to an increase of 78,896 people recorded in the same quarter of 2023.

Over the 12 months to April 1, 2024, the provincial population grew by 539,914 residents, an annual increase of 3.5 per cent. Over the previous 12-month period to April 1, 2023, Ontario’s population had grown by 410,864 people or 2.7 per cent.

Among the provinces, Ontario had the second highest population growth rate during the 12 months to April 1, 2024, after Alberta (4.4%). Canada’s population grew by 1,272,930 (3.2%) over the period.

Components of Demographic Change for Ontario
Component	Q1 2023	Q1 2024	12 Months to April 1, 2023	12 Months to April 1, 2024
Natural increase	484	2,002	14,118	18,290
Natural increase – Births	33,150	35,305	136,084	143,768
Natural increase – Deaths	32,666	33,303	121,966	125,478
Net migration	78,412	83,702	396,746	521,624
Migration – Net international migration	91,156	92,722	439,714	554,097
Migration – International migration – Immigration	60,842	52,781	195,168	198,773
Migration – International migration – Emigration^*	5,612	5,783	14,257	14,625
Migration – International migration – Net change in non-permanent residents	35,926	45,724	258,803	369,949
Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Inflow	88,278	108,999	450,245	603,815
Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Outflow	52,352	63,275	191,442	233,866
Migration – Net interprovincial migration	-12,744	-9,020	-42,968	-32,473
Migration – Interprovincial migration – Inflow	18,709	18,167	86,445	75,715
Migration – Interprovincial migration – Outflow	31,453	27,187	129,413	108,188
Population Growth	78,896	85,704	410,864	539,914
Population Growth Rate			2.7%	3.5%

Source: Statistics Canada. ^*Emigration refers to the net of: emigration minus returning emigration plus net temporary emigration.

Natural increase

There were 35,305 births during the first quarter of 2024, up from 33,150 in same quarter of 2023. The number of deaths also increased, reaching 33,303 in the first quarter of 2024, compared to 32,666 over the same period of the previous year.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 2,002 in the quarter, up from 484 in the same quarter of 2023.

International migration

There were 52,781 new immigrants to Ontario in the first quarter, down from 60,842 in the same quarter of 2023. Over the 12 months to April 1, 2024, 198,773 immigrants settled in the province, up from 195,168 in the previous year. Ontario received 44.4 per cent of all immigrants to Canada over this period, up from 41.6 per cent in the previous year.

There were 5,783 emigrants in the first quarter, compared to 5,612 in the same quarter of 2023.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario increased by 45,724 in the first quarter of 2024. The number of asylum claimants living in the province increased by 16,997 in that quarter. Holders of a work permit rose by 34,452, holders of a study permit declined by 15,919, and the number of those holding both a study and a work permit increased by 8,770.

There were 1,250,460 non-permanent residents living in Ontario on April 1, 2024, an increase of 369,949, or 42.0 per cent, over the previous 12 months.

Net Change in the Number of Non-Permanent Residents in Ontario
Net Change by Category	Q1 2023	Q1 2024	12 Months to April 1, 2023	12 Months to April 1, 2024
Asylum Claimants	4,089	16,997	14,318	59,974
Holders of Work Permit Only	36,845	34,452	132,452	195,556
Holders of Study Permit Only	-10,854	-15,919	62,448	49,819
Holders of Both Work & Study Permit	4,295	8,770	41,040	52,792
Other	1,551	1,424	8,545	11,808
Total Net Change	35,926	45,724	258,803	369,949

Non-Permanent Residents Living in Ontario
Number of People as of:	April 1, 2022	April 1, 2023	April 1, 2024
Asylum Claimants	67,435	81,753	141,727
Holders of Work Permit Only	229,582	362,034	557,590
Holders of Study Permit Only	207,722	270,170	319,989
Holders of Both Work & Study Permit	97,046	138,086	190,878
Other	19,923	28,468	40,276
Total	621,708	880,511	1,250,460
Change from Previous Year	+7.7%	+41.6%	+42.0%

Source: Statistics Canada.

Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 92,722 in the first quarter, up from a net gain of 91,156 in the same quarter of 2023. Net international migration is the sum of all new immigrants during the quarter, minus the number of emigrants, plus the net change in non-permanent residents.

Interprovincial migration

In the first quarter of 2024, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 9,020 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 12,744 people in the same quarter of 2023. Ontario experienced net losses in its exchanges with 9 of the other 12 provinces and territories. The largest net gains were from Saskatchewan (+286) and Quebec (+147). The largest net losses were to Alberta (-5,505) and New Brunswick (-1,626). Over the 12 months to April 1, 2024, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 32,473, compared to a net loss of 42,968 during the previous year.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

Population (000s) - Estimates^{footnote 1[1]}
Region	2006	2011	2016	2020	2021	2022	2023
Canada	32,571	34,339	36,111	38,029	38,240	38,939	40,098
Ontario	12,662	13,262	13,877	14,762	14,842	15,145	15,608
Ontario as % of Canada	38.9	38.6	38.4	38.8	38.8	38.9	38.9
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	1.3	0.9	0.9	1.6	0.5	2.0	3.1

Population (000s) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Canada	40,965	43,276	45,282	47,070	48,770
Ontario	16,627	17,819	19,065	20,355	21,692
Ontario as % of Canada	40.6	41.2	42.1	43.2	44.5
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	2.1	1.4	1.4	1.3	1.3

Age distribution (%) - Estimates ^{footnote 3[3]}
Age group	2006	2011	2016	2020	2021	2022	2023
0–4	5.4	5.4	5.2	4.9	4.9	4.7	4.6
5–14	12.3	11.2	11.0	10.7	10.7	10.6	10.4
15–24	13.8	13.7	13.0	12.6	12.2	12.5	12.8
25–44	29.4	27.1	26.5	27.3	27.6	27.9	28.7
45–64	26.0	28.4	28.1	26.8	26.6	26.0	25.3
65–74	6.9	7.6	9.2	10.0	10.3	10.3	10.2
75+	6.2	6.6	7.1	7.5	7.7	8.0	8.1

Age distribution (%) - MOF Projections^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
0–4	4.8	5.0	5.0	5.1	5.1
5–14	9.7	9.6	9.9	10.2	10.2
15–24	13.8	13.5	12.9	12.8	13.1
25–44	29.3	29.6	29.4	28.7	27.9
45–64	23.4	21.9	21.8	22.6	23.4
65–74	10.4	10.8	9.9	8.7	8.2
75+	8.6	9.7	11.0	11.9	12.0

Selected age groups (%) - Estimates^{footnote 3[3]}
Age group	2006	2011	2016	2020	2021	2022	2023
0–14	17.8	16.6	16.1	15.7	15.5	15.3	14.9
15–64	69.2	69.1	67.6	66.8	66.5	66.5	66.7
65+	13.0	14.2	16.3	17.5	18.0	18.3	18.3

Selected age groups (%) - MOF Projections^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
0–14	14.4	14.6	15.0	15.3	15.4
15–64	66.5	64.9	64.2	64.1	64.4
65+	19.0	20.5	20.9	20.7	20.3

Other characteristics - Estimates^{footnote 3[3]}
Other characteristic	2006	2011	2016	2020	2021	2022	2023
Total dependency ratio (%)^{footnote 4[4]}	60.6	60.3	62.6	63.6	64.2	64.5	63.9
Median age (years)	38.4	39.8	40.7	40.5	40.7	40.4	40.0
Age span of baby boom (years)	41-60	46-65	51-70	55-74	56-75	57-76	58-77
Total fertility rate^{footnote 5[5]}	1.59	1.57	1.52	1.34	1.37	1.27	n.a.
Female life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 5[5]}	83.2	84.1	84.4	84.4	84.4	84.1	n.a.
Male life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 5[5]}	78.7	79.9	80.4	79.9	79.6	79.6	n.a.
Families (000s)	3,539	3,722	3,832	4,039	4,105	4,170	n.a.
Households (000s)^{footnote 6[6]}	4,555	4,888	5,169	n.a.	5,491	n.a.	n.a.

Other characteristics - MOF Projections^{footnote 2[2]}
Other characteristic	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Total dependency ratio (%)^{footnote 4[4]}	64.5	68.3	69.7	70.3	70.0
Median age (years)	39.2	39.5	39.9	40.2	40.3
Age span of baby boom (years)	61-80	66-85	71-90	76-95	81-100
Total fertility rate^{footnote 5[5]}	1.37	1.38	1.41	1.46	1.50
Female life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 5[5]}	85.1	85.7	86.4	87.0	87.6
Male life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 5[5]}	80.8	81.7	82.6	83.5	84.3
Families (000s)	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Households (000s)^{footnote 6[6]}	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.

Regional distribution (%) - Estimates^{footnote 3[3]}
Region	2006	2011	2016	2020	2021	2022	2023
Greater Toronto Area	45.8	47.2	47.8	47.5	47.2	47.0	47.1
Central	22.0	21.6	21.6	21.9	22.1	22.2	22.3
Eastern	13.2	13.2	13.1	13.2	13.3	13.3	13.2
Southwestern	12.6	12.0	11.7	11.8	11.9	11.9	11.9
Northeastern	4.5	4.3	4.1	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9
Northwestern	1.9	1.8	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.6

Regional distribution (%) - MOF Projections^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Greater Toronto Area	48.2	48.4	48.5	48.6	48.6
Central	22.0	22.2	22.3	22.5	22.6
Eastern	12.8	12.8	12.8	12.9	12.9
Southwestern	11.8	11.7	11.6	11.5	11.5
Northeastern	3.7	3.5	3.4	3.2	3.1
Northwestern	1.5	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.2

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 1[1]},^{footnote 7[7]} — year beginning July 1
Period	Population, beginning of period	Total change	Births	Deaths	Natural increase
Five-Year: 2001–06	11,897	764	666	418	249
Five-Year: 2006–11	12,662	600	709	442	268
Five-Year: 2011–16	13,262	614	706	471	234
Five-Year: 2016–21	13,877	966	701	543	157
Annual: 2021–22	14,842	303	138	119	19
Annual: 2022–23	15,145	463	138	123	15

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 1[1]},^{footnote 7[7]} — year beginning July 1
International migration
Period	Immigrants	Net emigrants	Net NPRs	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	653	125	44	573
Five-Year: 2006–11	558	104	58	512
Five-Year: 2011–16	519	123	87	484
Five-Year: 2016–21	605	75	221	751
Annual: 2021–22	227	14	101	314
Annual: 2022–23	199	14	305	490

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 1[1]},^{footnote 7[7]} — year beginning July 1
Interprovincial migration
Period	In	Out	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	307	336	−30
Five-Year: 2006–11	296	355	−59
Five-Year: 2011–16	339	378	−39
Five-Year: 2016–21	372	358	14
Annual: 2021–22	86	117	−31
Annual: 2022–23	81	123	−42

Note: All population figures are for July 1^st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

Other Demographics Reports

Updated: June 20, 2024

Published: June 23, 2020

Footnotes

footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada’s population estimates are based on the 2021 Census.
footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Summer 2023), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
footnote[3] Back to paragraph Estimates are based on the 2021 Census.
footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
footnote[5] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
footnote[6] Back to paragraph Households are Census data.
footnote[7] Back to paragraph In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.