Population growth

Ontario’s population reached 14,789,778 on April 1, 2021, with a increase of 34,567 people during the first quarter of 2021. This compares to an increase of 34,422 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Population growth, Ontario, Q1 2021
Components of population growth Number of people (in thousands)
Population, January 1, 2021 14,755.2
Plus births 34.6
Minus deaths 33.2
Plus immigrants 35.0
Minus emigrants footnote 1 4.4
Plus net change in non-permanent residents 8.2
Plus interprovincial arrivals 16.0
Minus interprovincial departures 21.6
Population, April 1, 2021 14,789.8

Births and deaths

There were 34,608 births during the first quarter of 2021, an increase of 0.9% from the same quarter of 2020. The number of deaths increased by 5.3% to reach 33,196.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 1,412 in the quarter, down from 2,777 in the same quarter of 2020.

International migration

Immigration to Ontario was 34,983 in the quarter, up from 32,290 in the same quarter of 2020. Ontario received 49.6% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, an increase from 46.7% in the same quarter of 2020. Over the 12 months to March 31, Ontario received 85,674 immigrants, down sharply from 154,543 during the previous year.

There were 4,421 emigrants from Ontario in the first quarter, up from 2,281 during the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 46.7% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRsi.e. foreign students, visa workers and refugee claimants) increased by 8,222 to about 591,000 in the quarter.

Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 38,784 in the first quarter, up from a net gain of 33,708 in the same quarter of 2020.

Components of population growth, Q1 2021 and average for 2016-2020

Components of population growth, Q1 2021 and average for 2016-2020

* Includes emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians. Source: Statistics Canada.

Accessible description of chart

Interprovincial migration

In the first quarter of 2021, Ontario had a net outflow of 5,629 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net outflow of 2,063 people in the same quarter of 2020. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with 3 of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net gains from Saskatchewan (659) and Manitoba (407). The largest net losses were to British Columbia (−2,730) and Nova Scotia (−1,545). Over the 12 months to March 31, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration outflow was 7,054, compared to a net inflow of 1,193 during the previous year.

Year-over-year growth

Over the 12 months to March 31, Ontario’s population grew by 66,281 or 0.5%, lower than growth of 256,335 (1.8%) during the previous year. Among the provinces, Ontario had the fifth fastest population growth rate, after Prince Edward Island (0.8%), British Columbia (0.6%), Alberta (0.6%) and Nova Scotia (0.5%). Canada’s population grew at a rate of 0.4% over the period.

For more information, contact Alex Munger at 437-242-7697.

Ontario demographic factsheet

Population (000s) - Estimates footnote 2
Region 2006 2011 2016 2018 2019 2020
Canada 32,571 34,339 36,109 37,065 37,593 38,005
Ontario 12,662 13,261 13,875 14,309 14,545 14,734
Ontario as % of Canada 38.9 38.6 38.4 38.6 38.7 38.8
Ontario average annual growth rate
(Over previous year shown)
1.3 0.9 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.3
Population (000s) - MOF Projections
Region 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Canada 38,285 40,315 42,271 44,115 45,844 47,479
Ontario 14,822 16,076 17,091 18,083 19,058 20,016
Ontario as % of Canada 38.7 39.9 40.4 41.0 41.6 42.2
Ontario average annual growth rate
(Over previous year shown)
0.6 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0
Age distribution (%) - Estimates footnote 2
Age group 2006 2011 2016 2018 2019 2020
0–4 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.9
5–14 12.3 11.2 11.0 10.8 10.7 10.6
15–24 13.8 13.7 12.9 13.0 13.0 12.8
25–44 29.4 27.1 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.4
45–64 26.0 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.1 26.7
65–74 6.9 7.6 9.2 9.6 9.8 10.0
75+ 6.2 6.6 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.6
Age distribution (%) - MOF Projections
Age group 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
0–4 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9
5–14 10.5 10.0 9.9 10.0 9.9 9.9
15–24 12.6 12.9 12.7 12.4 12.4 12.5
25–44 27.4 28.4 28.3 27.8 26.9 26.3
45–64 26.5 24.1 22.7 22.8 23.6 24.2
65–74 10.3 10.9 11.3 10.5 9.4 9.0
75+ 7.8 8.9 10.2 11.7 13.0 13.3
Selected age groups (%) - Estimates footnote 2
Age group 2006 2011 2016 2018 2019 2020
0–14 17.8 16.6 16.1 15.8 15.6 15.5
15–64 69.2 69.1 67.6 67.3 67.1 66.9
65+ 13.0 14.2 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.6
Selected age groups (%) - MOF Projections
Age group 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
0–14 15.4 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8
15–64 66.5 65.4 63.7 62.9 62.8 62.9
65+ 18.1 19.8 21.6 22.3 22.4 22.2
Other characteristics - Estimates footnote 2
Other characteristic 2006 2011 2016 2018 2019 2020
Total dependency ratio (%) footnote 3 60.6 60.4 62.6 63.2 63.3 63.6
Median age (years) 38.4 39.8 40.7 40.6 40.5 40.4
Age span of baby boom (years) 41-60 46-65 51-70 52-71 53-72 54-73
Total fertility rate footnote 4 1.55 1.56 1.51 1.45 N/A N/A
Female life expectancy at birth (years) footnote 4 83.1 84.0 84.4 84.5 N/A N/A
Male life expectancy at birth (years) footnote 4 78.8 79.8 80.3 80.3 N/A N/A
Families (000s) 3,539 3,722 3,832 3,953 3,990 4,030
Households (000s) footnote 5 4,555 4,888 5,169 N/A N/A N/A
Other characteristics - MOF Projections
Other characteristic 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Total dependency ratio (%) footnote 3 64.5 67.9 72.3 74.0 74.5 74.3
Median age (years) 40.6 40.4 40.9 41.5 42.0 42.3
Age span of baby boom (years) 56-75 61-80 66-85 71-90 76-95 81-100
Total fertility rate footnote 4 1.43 1.39 1.39 1.42 1.46 1.50
Female life expectancy at birth (years) footnote 4 84.7 85.2 85.9 86.6 87.3 87.9
Male life expectancy at birth (years) footnote 4 80.5 81.2 82.2 83.1 84.0 84.8
Families (000s) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Households (000s) footnote 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Regional distribution (%) - Estimates footnote 2
Region 2006 2011 2016 2018 2019 2020
Greater Toronto Area 45.8 47.2 47.8 47.8 48.0 48.0
Central 22.0 21.6 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.7
Eastern 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1
Southwestern 12.6 12.0 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7
Northeastern 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9
Northwestern 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6
Regional distribution (%) - MOF Projections
Region 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Greater Toronto Area 47.9 48.5 48.9 49.3 49.6 49.8
Central 21.8 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.1
Eastern 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.8
Southwestern 11.7 11.6 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1
Northeastern 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0
Northwestern 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2
Components of change (000s) footnote 6  — year beginning July 1
Period Population,
beginning of period
Total change Births Deaths Natural increase
Five-Year: 2001–06 11,898 764 658 418 240
Five-Year: 2006–11 12,662 600 697 441 256
Five-Year: 2011–16 13,261 614 702 471 231
Annual: 2016–17 13,875 195 141 102 39
Annual: 2017–18 14,070 239 141 107 34
Annual: 2018–19 14,309 236 140 109 31
Annual: 2019–20 14,545 189 143 115 28
Components of change (000s) footnote 6  — year beginning July 1
International migration
Period Immigrants Net emigrants Net NPRs Net
Five-Year: 2001–06 653 125 44 573
Five-Year: 2006–11 558 104 57 511
Five-Year: 2011–16 519 123 85 481
Annual: 2016–17 98 19 63 142
Annual: 2017–18 132 16 78 194
Annual: 2018–19 139 16 75 198
Annual: 2019–20 127 9 43 161
Components of change (000s) footnote 6  — year beginning July 1
Interprovincial migration
Period In Out Net
Five-Year: 2001–06 307 336 -30
Five-Year: 2006–11 296 355 -59
Five-Year: 2011–16 307 346 -39
Annual: 2016–17 72 58 13
Annual: 2017–18 70 60 10
Annual: 2018–19 67 60 7
Annual: 2019–20 70 70 0

Note: All population figures are for July 1st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

June 17, 2021
Office of Economic Policy


Accessible image description:

This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the first quarter of 2021 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2016-2020). In the first quarter of 2021, births, deaths and immigration were higher than the average of first quarters of the previous five years, while the net change in the number of non-permanent residents, emigration and net interprovincial migration were lower.

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Footnotes

  • footnote[1] Back to paragraph Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
    Source: Statistics Canada.
  • footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2021), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
  • footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
  • footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total Fertility Rate estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).
  • footnote[5] Back to paragraph Households are Census data.
  • footnote[6] Back to paragraph In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.
Updated: September 22, 2021
Published: June 23, 2020