Ontario Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of first quarter

Learn about key facts and figures of the province's demographics for the first quarter of 2023.

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Population growth

Ontario’s population reached 15,500,632 on April 1, 2023, with a increase of 114,225 people during the first quarter of 2023. This compares to an increase of 55,102 people recorded in the same quarter of 2022.

Population growth, Ontario, Q1 2023
Components of demographic change	Number of people (in thousands)
Population, January 1, 2023	15,386.4
Plus Births	34.5
Minus Deaths	31.5
Plus Immigrants	60.8
Minus Emigrants^*	6.2
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents	71.2
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals	18.3
Minus Interprovincial Departures	33.1
Population, April 1, 2023	15,500.6

^*Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.

Births and deaths

There were 34,535 births during the first quarter of 2023, an increase of 5.0% from the same quarter of 2022. The number of deaths decreased by 5.9% to reach 31,485.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 3,050 in the quarter, up from negative 571 in the same quarter of 2022.

International migration

Immigration to Ontario was 60,828 in the first quarter, up significantly from 50,617 in the same quarter of 2022. Ontario received 41.8% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, a decrease from 44.5% in the same quarter of 2022. In the 12 months to April 1, 2023, 194,982 immigrants settled in Ontario, down from 214,909 the previous year.

There were 6,164 emigrants in the first quarter, compared to 6,056 during the same quarter of 2022. Ontario accounted for 47.2% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non‑permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. international students, foreign workers, and refugee claimants) increased by 71,243 to about 953,000 by April 1, 2023.

Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 125,907 in the first quarter, up from a net gain of 67,790 in the same quarter of 2022.

Components of population growth, Q1 2023 and average for 2018-2022

Components of population growth, Q1 2023 and average for 2017-2021 — * Includes emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.
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Interprovincial migration

In the first quarter of 2023, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 14,732 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 12,117 people in the same quarter of 2022. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with Saskatchewan (+239) and Manitoba (+45), but net losses with all other provinces. The largest net losses were to Alberta (-7,693), Nova Scotia (-2,527) and New Brunswick (-1,754). In the 12 months to April 1, 2023, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 54,632, compared to a net loss of 37,982 during the previous year.

Year-over-year growth

In the 12 months to April 1, 2023, Ontario’s population grew by 504,618 or 3.4%, much faster than during the previous year (222,396 or 1.5%). Among the provinces, Ontario had the fifth fastest population growth rate after Prince Edward Island (4.6%), Alberta (4.5%), Nova Scotia (4.0%), and New Brunswick (3.6%). Canada’s population grew by 1,213,560 (3.1%) over the 12-month period.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

Population (000s) - Estimates^{footnote 1[1]}
Region	2006	2011	2016	2019	2020	2021	2022
Canada	32,571	34,339	36,109	37,601	38,007	38,226	38,930
Ontario	12,662	13,261	13,875	14,545	14,726	14,809	15,109
Ontario as % of Canada	38.9	38.6	38.4	38.7	38.7	38.7	38.8
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	1.3	0.9	0.9	1.6	1.2	0.6	2.0

Population (000s) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Canada	40,965	43,276	45,282	47,070	48,770
Ontario	16,043	17,121	18,209	19,308	20,418
Ontario as % of Canada	39.2	39.6	40.2	41.0	41.9
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	1.5	1.3	1.2	1.2	1.1

Age distribution (%) - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Age group	2006	2011	2016	2019	2020	2021	2022
0–4	5.4	5.4	5.2	5.0	4.9	4.8	4.7
5–14	12.3	11.2	11.0	10.7	10.6	10.5	10.4
15–24	13.8	13.7	12.9	13.0	12.8	12.4	12.6
25–44	29.4	27.1	26.5	27.0	27.3	27.6	28.0
45–64	26.0	28.3	28.1	27.1	26.7	26.5	25.9
65–74	6.9	7.6	9.2	9.8	10.0	10.3	10.3
75+	6.2	6.6	7.1	7.5	7.6	7.8	8.0

Age distribution (%) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
0–4	4.8	4.9	4.9	4.9	5.0
5–14	9.9	9.7	9.8	9.9	9.9
15–24	12.7	12.4	12.0	11.9	12.1
25–44	28.8	28.9	28.6	27.8	27.0
45–64	24.1	22.6	22.7	23.5	24.2
65–74	10.8	11.3	10.4	9.2	8.8
75+	8.9	10.2	11.6	12.8	13.0

Selected age groups (%) - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Age group	2006	2011	2016	2019	2020	2021	2022
0–14	17.8	16.6	16.1	15.6	15.5	15.3	15.1
15–64	69.2	69.1	67.6	67.1	66.9	66.5	66.5
65+	13.0	14.2	16.3	17.3	17.7	18.1	18.4

Selected age groups (%) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
0–14	14.7	14.6	14.7	14.8	14.9
15–64	65.5	64.0	63.3	63.2	63.3
65+	19.8	21.5	22.0	22.0	21.8

Other characteristics - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Other characteristic	2006	2011	2016	2019	2020	2021	2022
Total dependency ratio (%)^{footnote 3[3]}	60.6	60.4	62.6	63.4	63.7	64.0	64.3
Median age (years)	38.4	39.8	40.7	40.5	40.5	40.7	40.4
Age span of baby boom (years)	41-60	46-65	51-70	54-73	55-74	56-75	57-76
Total fertility rate^{footnote 4[4]}	1.55	1.56	1.51	1.42	1.34	1.37	n.a.
Female life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	82.9	83.7	84.0	84.4	84.0	n.a.	n.a.
Male life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	78.3	79.4	79.9	80.2	79.5	n.a.	n.a.
Families (000s)	3,539	3,722	3,832	4,010	4,039	4,105	4,170
Households (000s)^{footnote 5[5]}	4,555	4,888	5,169	n.a.	n.a.	5,491	n.a.

Other characteristics - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Other characteristic	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Total dependency ratio (%)^{footnote 3[3]}	66.8	70.6	72.0	72.5	72.3
Median age (years)	40.4	40.8	41.3	41.8	42.0
Age span of baby boom (years)	61-80	66-85	71-90	76-95	81-100
Total fertility rate^{footnote 4[4]}	1.37	1.38	1.41	1.46	1.50
Female life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	85.2	85.9	86.6	87.3	87.9
Male life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	80.9	81.9	82.9	83.9	84.8
Families (000s)	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Households (000s)^{footnote 5[5]}	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.

Regional distribution (%) - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Region	2006	2011	2016	2019	2020	2021	2022
Greater Toronto Area	45.8	47.2	47.8	48.0	48.0	47.8	47.8
Central	22.0	21.6	21.6	21.7	21.7	21.9	21.9
Eastern	13.2	13.2	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1
Southwestern	12.6	12.0	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7
Northeastern	4.5	4.3	4.1	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.8
Northwestern	1.9	1.8	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.6	1.6

Regional distribution (%) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Greater Toronto Area	48.5	48.7	48.9	49.1	49.1
Central	21.9	22.0	22.2	22.3	22.4
Eastern	13.0	13.0	13.0	13.0	13.0
Southwestern	11.5	11.4	11.4	11.3	11.3
Northeastern	3.6	3.4	3.2	3.1	3.0
Northwestern	1.5	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.2

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 6[6]} — year beginning July 1
Period	Population, beginning of period	Total change	Births	Deaths	Natural increase
Five-Year: 2001–06	11,898	764	658	418	240
Five-Year: 2006–11	12,662	600	697	441	256
Five-Year: 2011–16	13,261	614	702	471	231
Annual: 2016–17	13,875	195	141	102	39
Annual: 2017–18	14,070	239	141	107	34
Annual: 2018–19	14,309	236	140	106	34
Annual: 2019–20	14,545	181	140	112	29
Annual: 2020–21	14,726	83	137	116	21
Annual: 2021–22	14,809	300	142	121	20

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 6[6]} — year beginning July 1
International migration
Period	Immigrants	Net emigrants	Net NPRs	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	653	125	44	573
Five-Year: 2006–11	558	104	57	511
Five-Year: 2011–16	519	123	85	481
Annual: 2016–17	98	19	63	142
Annual: 2017–18	132	16	78	194
Annual: 2018–19	139	16	72	195
Annual: 2019–20	127	15	37	150
Annual: 2020–21	108	8	−19	81
Annual: 2021–22	227	18	117	327

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 6[6]} — year beginning July 1
Interprovincial migration
Period	In	Out	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	307	336	−30
Five-Year: 2006–11	296	355	−59
Five-Year: 2011–16	307	346	−39
Annual: 2016–17	72	58	13
Annual: 2017–18	70	60	10
Annual: 2018–19	67	60	7
Annual: 2019–20	82	79	3
Annual: 2020–21	62	81	−18
Annual: 2021–22	78	125	−47

Note: All population figures are for July 1^st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

March 22, 2023
Office of Economic Policy

For more information contact Alex Munger 437-242-7697.

Other Demographics Reports

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Components of population growth, Q1 2023 and average for 2018-2022

This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the first quarter of 2023 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2018-2022). In the first quarter of 2013, all components were higher than the average of first quarters of the previous five years, with the exception of net interprovincial migration.

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Updated: July 14, 2023

Published: June 23, 2020

Footnotes

footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada's population estimates based on the 2016 Census.
footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Summer 2022), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
footnote[5] Back to paragraph Households are Census data.
footnote[6] Back to paragraph In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.