Ontario Demographic Quarterly: highlights of second quarter
Learn about Ontario’s economic performance and outlook for the second quarter of 2022.
Population growth
Ontario’s population reached 15,109,416 on July 1, 2022, with a increase of 113,402 people during the second quarter of 2022. This compares to an increase of 35,639 people recorded in the same quarter of 2021.
| Thousands | |
|---|---|
| Population, April 1, 2022 | 14,996.0 |
| Plus Births | 36.8 |
| Minus Deaths | 29.2 |
| Plus Immigrants | 50.7 |
| Minus Emigrants * | 2.5 |
| Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents | 78.6 |
| Plus Interprovincial Arrivals | 28.0 |
| Minus Interprovincial Departures | 49.0 |
| Population, July 1, 2022 | 15,109.4 |
*Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Births and deaths
There were 36,821 births during the second quarter of 2022, an increase of 2.3% from the same quarter of 2021. The number of deaths also increased by 2.3% to reach 29,155.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 7,666 in the quarter, up from 7,468 in the same quarter of 2021.
International migration
Immigration to Ontario was 50,682 in the second quarter, up from 38,356 in the same quarter of 2021. Ontario received 42.9% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, a decrease from 51.5% in the same quarter of 2021. During the past year to June 30, Ontario received 227,235 immigrants, up sharply from 107,929 in the previous year.
There were 2,488 emigrants in the second quarter, compared to 1,768 during the same quarter of 2021. Ontario accounted for 40.7% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.
The number of non‑permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. international students, foreign workers, and refugee claimants) increased by 78,550 to about 705,000 by July 1.
Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 126,744 in the second quarter, up from a net gain of 39,949 in the same quarter of 2021.
Components of population growth, Q2 2022 and average for 2017-2021
* Includes emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Interprovincial migration
In the second quarter of 2022, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 21,008 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 11,778 people in the same quarter of 2021. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with Saskatchewan (+292) and Manitoba (+274), but net losses with all other provinces. The largest net losses were to Alberta (-6,281), Nova Scotia (-4,807), British Columbia (-4,198) and New Brunswick (-3,593). During the past 12 months to June 30, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 47,212, compared to a net loss of 18,405 in the previous year.
Year-over-year growth
In the 12 months to June 30, Ontario’s population grew by 300,159 or 2.0%, much faster than in the previous year (83,235 or 0.6%). Among the provinces, Ontario had the sixth fastest population growth rate after Prince Edward Island (3.6%), Nova Scotia (2.9%), New Brunswick (2.7%), British Columbia (2.2%) and Alberta (2.2%). Canada’s population grew by 703,404 (1.8%) over the period.
For more information contact Alex Munger
Ontario Demographic Factsheet
| Region | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 32,571 | 34,339 | 36,109 | 37,601 | 38,007 | 38,226 | 38,930 |
| Ontario | 12,662 | 13,261 | 13,875 | 14,545 | 14,726 | 14,809 | 15,109 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 38.9 | 38.6 | 38.4 | 38.7 | 38.7 | 38.7 | 38.8 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 40,965 | 43,276 | 45,282 | 47,070 | 48,770 |
| Ontario | 16,043 | 17,121 | 18,209 | 19,308 | 20,418 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 39.2 | 39.6 | 40.2 | 41.0 | 41.9 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Age group | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 |
| 5–14 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.4 |
| 15–24 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 12.6 |
| 25–44 | 29.4 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 27.0 | 27.3 | 27.6 | 28.0 |
| 45–64 | 26.0 | 28.3 | 28.1 | 27.1 | 26.7 | 26.5 | 25.9 |
| 65–74 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| 75+ | 6.2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 8.0 |
| Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| 5–14 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| 15–24 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 12.1 |
| 25–44 | 28.8 | 28.9 | 28.6 | 27.8 | 27.0 |
| 45–64 | 24.1 | 22.6 | 22.7 | 23.5 | 24.2 |
| 65–74 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 8.8 |
| 75+ | 8.9 | 10.2 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 13.0 |
| Age group | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 17.8 | 16.6 | 16.1 | 15.6 | 15.5 | 15.3 | 15.1 |
| 15–64 | 69.2 | 69.1 | 67.6 | 67.1 | 66.9 | 66.5 | 66.5 |
| 65+ | 13.0 | 14.2 | 16.3 | 17.3 | 17.7 | 18.1 | 18.4 |
| Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 14.7 | 14.6 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 14.9 |
| 15–64 | 65.5 | 64.0 | 63.3 | 63.2 | 63.3 |
| 65+ | 19.8 | 21.5 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 21.8 |
| Other characteristic | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%) | 60.6 | 60.4 | 62.6 | 63.4 | 63.7 | 64.0 | 64.3 |
| Median age (years) | 38.4 | 39.8 | 40.7 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.7 | 40.4 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 41-60 | 46-65 | 51-70 | 54-73 | 55-74 | 56-75 | 57-76 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.55 | 1.56 | 1.51 | 1.42 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 82.9 | 83.7 | 84.0 | 84.4 | 84.0 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 78.3 | 79.4 | 79.9 | 80.2 | 79.5 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Families (000s) | 3,539 | 3,722 | 3,832 | 4,010 | 4,055 | 4,111 | n.a. |
| Households (000s) | 4,555 | 4,888 | 5,169 | n.a. | n.a. | 5,491 | n.a. |
| Other characteristic | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%) | 66.8 | 70.6 | 72.0 | 72.5 | 72.3 |
| Median age (years) | 40.4 | 40.8 | 41.3 | 41.8 | 42.0 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 61-80 | 66-85 | 71-90 | 76-95 | 81-100 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.41 | 1.46 | 1.50 |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 85.2 | 85.9 | 86.6 | 87.3 | 87.9 |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 80.9 | 81.9 | 82.9 | 83.9 | 84.8 |
| Families (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Households (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Region | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 45.8 | 47.2 | 47.8 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 47.9 | n.a. |
| Central | 22.0 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.8 | n.a. |
| Eastern | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | n.a. |
| Southwestern | 12.6 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | n.a. |
| Northeastern | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | n.a. |
| Northwestern | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | n.a. |
| Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 48.5 | 48.7 | 48.9 | 49.1 | 49.1 |
| Central | 21.9 | 22.0 | 22.2 | 22.3 | 22.4 |
| Eastern | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| Southwestern | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 11.3 |
| Northeastern | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Northwestern | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Period | Population, beginning of period | Total change | Births | Deaths | Natural increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 11,898 | 764 | 658 | 418 | 240 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 12,662 | 600 | 697 | 441 | 256 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 13,261 | 614 | 702 | 471 | 231 |
| Annual: 2016–17 | 13,875 | 195 | 141 | 102 | 39 |
| Annual: 2017–18 | 14,070 | 239 | 141 | 107 | 34 |
| Annual: 2018–19 | 14,309 | 236 | 140 | 106 | 34 |
| Annual: 2019–20 | 14,545 | 181 | 140 | 112 | 29 |
| Annual: 2020–21 | 14,726 | 83 | 137 | 116 | 21 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 14,809 | 300 | 142 | 121 | 20 |
| Period | Immigrants | Net emigrants | Net NPRs | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 653 | 125 | 44 | 573 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 558 | 104 | 57 | 511 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 519 | 123 | 85 | 481 |
| Annual: 2016–17 | 98 | 19 | 63 | 142 |
| Annual: 2017–18 | 132 | 16 | 78 | 194 |
| Annual: 2018–19 | 139 | 16 | 72 | 195 |
| Annual: 2019–20 | 127 | 15 | 37 | 150 |
| Annual: 2020–21 | 108 | 8 | -19 | 81 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 227 | 18 | 117 | 327 |
| Period | In | Out | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 307 | 336 | −30 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 296 | 355 | −59 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 307 | 346 | −39 |
| Annual: 2016–17 | 72 | 58 | 13 |
| Annual: 2017–18 | 70 | 60 | 10 |
| Annual: 2018–19 | 67 | 60 | 7 |
| Annual: 2019–20 | 82 | 79 | 3 |
| Annual: 2020–21 | 62 | 81 | -18 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 78 | 125 | -47 |
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.
September 28, 2022
Office of Economic Policy
Accessible image description
This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the second quarter of 2022 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2017-2021). In the second quarter of 2022, births, deaths, immigration, emigration and the net change in non-permanent residents were higher than the average of second quarters of the previous five years, while net interprovincial migration was lower.
Footnotes
- footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada's population estimates based on the 2016 Census.
- footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Summer 2022), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics
- footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
- footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
- footnote[5] Back to paragraph Households are Census data.
- footnote[6] Back to paragraph In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.