Ontario Demographic Quarterly: highlights of second quarter
Learn about Ontario’s economic performance and outlook for the second quarter of 2026.
Demographic Change
As of July 1, 2026, Ontario’s population reached 16,262,121, reflecting an increase of 17,927 residents during the second quarter of the year. This contrasts with population declines recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025 (-3,679) and the first quarter of 2026 (-5,150).
All other provinces also experienced population increases in the second quarter. The population of Canada as a whole rose by 80,343.
In the 12 months to July 1, 2026, Ontario’s population rose by 45,160 residents, reflecting an annual increase of 0.3 per cent. The provincial population had grown by 126,603 people or 0.8 per cent during the previous year.
British Columbia (0.1%) and Quebec (0.2%) were the only two provinces to grow at a slower pace than Ontario in the 12 months to July 1, 2026. The fastest-growing provinces were Alberta (1.5%) and New Brunswick (1.0%).
| Component | Q2 2025 | Q2 2026 | 12 months to July 1, 2025 | 12 months to July 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural increase | 7,528 | 6,605 | 23,598 | 21,170 |
| Natural increase – Births | 36,981 | 36,977 | 145,453 | 146,917 |
| Natural increase – Deaths | 29,453 | 30,372 | 121,855 | 125,747 |
| Net migration | 19,556 | 11,322 | 103,005 | 23,990 |
| Migration – Net international migration | 29,891 | 18,385 | 132,718 | 42,005 |
| Migration – International migration – Immigration | 44,057 | 43,335 | 190,653 | 156,480 |
| Migration – International migration – Emigration* | 6,192 | 6,258 | 28,525 | 28,835 |
| Migration – International migration – Net change in non-permanent residents | -7,974 | -18,692 | -29,410 | -85,640 |
| Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Inflow | 48,070 | 42,375 | 253,903 | 158,668 |
| Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Outflow | 56,044 | 61,067 | 283,313 | 244,308 |
| Migration – Net interprovincial migration | -10,335 | -7,063 | -29,713 | -18,015 |
| Migration – Interprovincial migration – Inflow | 28,179 | 27,906 | 80,515 | 77,517 |
| Migration – Interprovincial migration – Outflow | 38,514 | 34,969 | 110,228 | 95,532 |
| Population Growth | 27,084 | 17,927 | 126,603 | 45,160 |
| Population Growth Rate | 0.8% | 0.3% |
Source: Statistics Canada. *Emigration refers to the net of emigration minus returning emigration.
Natural increase
There were 36,977 births in Ontario during the second quarter of 2026, similar to 36,981 in the same quarter of 2025. The number of deaths increased, reaching 30,372 in the second quarter of 2026, compared to 29,453 over the same period of the previous year.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 6,605 in the quarter, down from 7,528 in the same quarter of 2025.
International migration
There were 43,335 new immigrants to Ontario in the second quarter, down slightly from 44,057 in the same quarter of 2025. In the 12 months to July 1, 2026, there were 156,480 immigrants to the province, down from 190,653 in the previous year. Ontario received 42.5 per cent of all immigrants to Canada over this period, down from 43.8 per cent in the previous year.
There were 6,258 emigrants in the second quarter, compared to 6,192 in the same quarter of 2025.
The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario decreased by 18,692 in the second quarter of 2026, compared to a decline of 7,974 in the same period of 2025. Since September 1, 2024, the number of non-permanent residents in Ontario declined by 148,177 or 10.6 per cent. As of July 1, 2026, there were 1,246,301 non-permanent residents living in Ontario.
The number of asylum claimants and protected persons living in the province decreased by 4,008 in the second quarter.
Holders of work permits fell by 4,208, holders of a study permit declined by 9,696, and the number of those holding both a study and a work permit decreased by 1,282.
| Net Change by Category | Q2 2025 | Q2 2026 | 12 months to July 1, 2025 | 12 months to July 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asylum Claimants | 8,080 | -4,008 | 50,004 | 15,742 |
| Holders of Work Permit Only | 14,518 | -4,208 | 58,471 | 38,194 |
| Holders of Study Permit Only | -14,964 | -9,696 | -80,637 | -81,337 |
| Holders of Both Work & Study Permit | -13,365 | -1,282 | -53,966 | -55,821 |
| Other | -2,243 | 502 | -3,282 | -2,418 |
| Total Net Change | -7,974 | -18,692 | -29,410 | -85,640 |
| Number of People as of: | July 1, 2024 | July 1, 2025 | July 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asylum Claimants | 190,513 | 240,517 | 256,259 |
| Holders of Work Permit Only | 589,717 | 648,188 | 686,382 |
| Holders of Study Permit Only | 316,244 | 235,607 | 154,270 |
| Holders of Both Work & Study Permit | 207,222 | 153,256 | 97,435 |
| Other | 57,655 | 54,373 | 51,955 |
| Total | 1,361,351 | 1,331,941 | 1,246,301 |
| Change from Previous Year | +23.8% | -2.2% | -6.9% |
Source: Statistics Canada.
Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 18,385 in the second quarter, down from a net gain of 29,891 in the same quarter of 2025. Net international migration is the sum of all new immigrants during the quarter, minus the number of emigrants, plus the net change in non-permanent residents.
Interprovincial migration
In the second quarter of 2026, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 7,063 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 10,335 people in the same quarter of 2025. In the 12 months to July 1, 2026, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 18,015. While this net loss is above the average for the last 10 years, it is the smallest net loss recorded in the last six years.
Ontario Demographic Factsheet
| Region | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 34,339 | 36,111 | 38,240 | 41,163 | 41,609 | 41,798 |
| Ontario | 13,262 | 13,877 | 14,842 | 16,090 | 16,217 | 16,262 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 38.6 | 38.4 | 38.8 | 39.1 | 39.0 | 38.9 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Region | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 42,875 | 44,433 | 45,929 | 47,441 | 49,002 |
| Ontario | 16,731 | 17,540 | 18,393 | 19,295 | 20,225 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 39.0 | 39.5 | 40.0 | 40.7 | 41.3 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Age group | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| 5–14 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.1 |
| 15–24 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 12.1 |
| 25–44 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 27.6 | 29.4 | 29.6 | 29.5 |
| 45–64 | 28.4 | 28.1 | 26.6 | 24.6 | 24.4 | 24.3 |
| 65–74 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 10.7 |
| 75+ | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.8 |
| Age group | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| 5–14 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| 15–24 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 10.5 |
| 25–44 | 29.1 | 29.0 | 28.5 | 28.4 | 28.3 |
| 45–64 | 23.3 | 23.5 | 24.5 | 25.2 | 25.5 |
| 65–74 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 9.5 |
| 75+ | 10.4 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 13.2 |
| Age group | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 16.6 | 16.1 | 15.5 | 14.7 | 14.6 | 14.6 |
| 15–64 | 69.1 | 67.6 | 66.5 | 66.9 | 66.4 | 65.9 |
| 65+ | 14.2 | 16.3 | 18.0 | 18.4 | 18.9 | 19.5 |
| Age group | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| 15–64 | 64.3 | 64.0 | 64.2 | 64.4 | 64.3 |
| 65+ | 21.9 | 22.7 | 22.9 | 22.7 | 22.7 |
| Other characteristic | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%) | 60.3 | 62.6 | 64.2 | 63.3 | 64.1 | 65.6 |
| Median age (years) | 39.8 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 39.7 | 40.0 | 40.4 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 46-65 | 51-70 | 56-75 | 59-78 | 60-79 | 61-80 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.57 | 1.52 | 1.37 | 1.22 | 1.23 | n.a. |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 84.1 | 84.4 | 84.3 | 85.0 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 79.9 | 80.4 | 79.5 | 80.7 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Families (000s) | 3,722 | 3,818 | 4,017 | 4,289 | 4,327 | n.a. |
| Households (000s) | 5,062 | 5,318 | 5,741 | 6,216 | 6,285 | n.a. |
| Other characteristic | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%) | 69.9 | 69.9 | 68.8 | 67.6 | 67.6 |
| Median age (years) | 41.5 | 42.4 | 43.2 | 43.5 | 43.7 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 66-85 | 71-90 | 76-95 | 81-100 | 86-105 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.21 |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 86.0 | 86.6 | 87.1 | 87.6 | 88.1 |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 82.1 | 82.8 | 83.5 | 84.2 | 84.8 |
| Families (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Households (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Region | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 47.2 | 47.8 | 47.2 | 47.5 | 47.2 | n.a. |
| Central | 21.6 | 21.6 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.2 | n.a. |
| Eastern | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 13.3 | n.a. |
| Southwestern | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 11.9 | n.a. |
| Northeastern | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | n.a. |
| Northwestern | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | n.a. |
| Region | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 45.4 | 44.9 | 44.5 | 44.3 | 44.2 |
| Central | 23.0 | 23.2 | 23.3 | 23.3 | 23.3 |
| Eastern | 14.1 | 14.5 | 14.8 | 15.0 | 15.3 |
| Southwestern | 12.1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| Northeastern | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| Northwestern | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Period | Population, beginning of period | Total change | Births | Deaths | Natural increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 11,897 | 764 | 666 | 418 | 249 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 12,662 | 600 | 709 | 442 | 268 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 13,262 | 614 | 706 | 471 | 234 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 13,877 | 966 | 701 | 543 | 157 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 14,842 | 313 | 139 | 121 | 18 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 15,155 | 463 | 136 | 124 | 12 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 15,618 | 472 | 142 | 121 | 20 |
| Annual: 2024–25 | 16,090 | 127 | 145 | 122 | 24 |
| Annual: 2024–25 | 16,217 | 45 | 147 | 126 | 21 |
| Period | Immigrants | Net emigrants | Net NPRs | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 653 | 125 | 44 | 573 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 558 | 104 | 58 | 512 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 519 | 123 | 87 | 484 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 605 | 75 | 221 | 751 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 227 | 22 | 120 | 325 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 199 | 30 | 311 | 481 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 198 | 28 | 324 | 494 |
| Annual: 2024–25 | 191 | 29 | -29 | 133 |
| Annual: 2025–26 | 156 | 29 | -86 | 42 |
| Period | In | Out | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 307 | 336 | -30 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 296 | 355 | -59 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 307 | 346 | -39 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 340 | 326 | 14 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 77 | 108 | -31 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 77 | 106 | -30 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 69 | 112 | -43 |
| Annual: 2024–25 | 70 | 99 | -30 |
| Annual: 2025–26 | 69 | 87 | -18 |
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.
Other Demographics Reports
Footnotes
- footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada’s population estimates are based on the 2021 Census.
- footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance, except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
- footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
- footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
- footnote[5] Back to paragraph In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.