Ontario Demographic Quarterly: highlights of second quarter

Learn about Ontario’s economic performance and outlook for the second quarter of 2021.

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Population growth

Ontario’s population reached 14,826,276 on July 1, 2021, with a increase of 30,393 people during the second quarter of 2021. This compares to an increase of 16,388 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Population growth, Ontario, Q2 2021
Thousands
Population, April 1, 2021	14,795.9
Plus Births	34.9
Minus Deaths	29.0
Plus Immigrants	38.3
Minus Emigrants ^*	5.4
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents	3.3
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals	25.3
Minus Interprovincial Departures	37.2
Population, July 1, 2021	14,826.3

^*Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.

Births and deaths

There were 34,938 births during the second quarter of 2021, an increase of 0.8% from the same quarter of 2020. The number of deaths decreased by 3.0% to reach 28,974.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 5,964 in the quarter, up from 4,812 in the same quarter of 2020.

International migration

Immigration to Ontario was 38,307 in the quarter, up from 16,067 in the same quarter of 2020. Ontario received 51.5% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, an increase from 47.2% in the same quarter of 2020. Over the 12 months to June 30, Ontario received 107,865 immigrants, down sharply from 127,112 during the previous year.

There were 5,366 emigrants in the second quarter, compared to an unusual net return to Ontario of 7,522 previously-emigrated Canadians during the same quarter of 2020. Ontario accounted for 45.4% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers and refugee claimants) increased by 3,345 to about 572,000 in the quarter.

Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 36,286 in the second quarter, up from a net gain of 12,394 in the same quarter of 2020.

Components of population growth, Q2 2021 and average for 2016-2020

components of population growth in the second quarter of 2020 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2016-2020) — * Includes emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Accessible description of chart

Interprovincial migration

In the second quarter of 2021, Ontario had a net outflow of 11,857 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net outflow of 818 people in the same quarter of 2020. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with 3 of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net gains from Saskatchewan (781) and Manitoba (636). The largest net losses were to British Columbia (−4,754) and Nova Scotia (−3,234). Over the 12 months to June 30, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration outflow was 17,085, compared to a net inflow of 2,794 during the previous year.

Year-over-year growth

Over the 12 months to June 30, Ontario’s population grew by 80,564 or 0.5%, lower than growth of 201,011 (1.4%) during the previous year. Among the provinces, Ontario had the fifth fastest population growth rate after Prince Edward Island (1.9%), British Columbia (1.1%), Nova Scotia (1.0%) and New Brunswick (0.8%). Canada’s population grew by 208,904 (0.5%) over the period.

For more information contact Alex Munger 437-242-7697.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

Population (000s) - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Region	2006	2011	2016	2018	2019	2020	2021
Canada	32,571	34,339	36,109	37,065	37,601	38,037	38,246
Ontario	12,662	13,261	13,875	14,309	14,545	14,746	14,826
Ontario as % of Canada	38.9	38.6	38.4	38.6	38.7	38.8	38.7
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	1.3	0.9	0.9	1.5	1.6	1.4	0.5

Population (000s) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Canada	40,315	42,271	44,115	45,844	47,479
Ontario	16,076	17,091	18,083	19,058	20,016
Ontario as % of Canada	39.9	40.4	41.0	41.6	42.2
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	1.6	1.2	1.1	1.1	1.0

Age distribution (%) - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Age group	2006	2011	2016	2018	2019	2020	2021
0–4	5.4	5.4	5.2	5.0	5.0	4.9	4.8
5–14	12.3	11.2	11.0	10.8	10.7	10.6	10.5
15–24	13.8	13.7	12.9	13.0	13.0	12.8	12.5
25–44	29.4	27.1	26.5	26.7	27.0	27.4	27.6
45–64	26.0	28.3	28.1	27.5	27.1	26.7	26.5
65–74	6.9	7.6	9.2	9.6	9.8	10.0	10.3
75+	6.2	6.6	7.1	7.3	7.5	7.6	7.8

Age distribution (%) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
0–4	4.9	4.9	4.9	4.9	4.9
5–14	10.0	9.9	10.0	9.9	9.9
15–24	12.9	12.7	12.4	12.4	12.5
25–44	28.4	28.3	27.8	26.9	26.3
45–64	24.1	22.7	22.8	23.6	24.2
65–74	10.9	11.3	10.5	9.4	9.0
75+	8.9	10.2	11.7	13.0	13.3

Selected age groups (%) - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Age group	2006	2011	2016	2018	2019	2020	2021
0–14	17.8	16.6	16.1	15.8	15.6	15.5	15.3
15–64	69.2	69.1	67.6	67.3	67.1	66.9	66.6
65+	13.0	14.2	16.3	16.9	17.3	17.6	18.1

Selected age groups (%) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
0–14	14.9	14.8	14.8	14.8	14.8
15–64	65.4	63.7	62.9	62.8	62.9
65+	19.8	21.6	22.3	22.4	22.2

Other characteristics - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Other characteristic	2006	2011	2016	2018	2019	2020	2021
Total dependency ratio (%) ^{footnote 3[3]}	60.6	60.4	62.6	63.2	63.4	63.6	63.9
Median age (years)	38.4	39.8	40.7	40.6	40.5	40.5	40.7
Age span of baby boom (years)	41-60	46-65	51-70	53-72	54-73	55-74	56-75
Total fertility rate ^{footnote 4[4]}	1.55	1.56	1.51	1.45	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Female life expectancy at birth (years) ^{footnote 4[4]}	83.1	84.0	84.4	84.5	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Male life expectancy at birth (years) ^{footnote 4[4]}	78.8	79.8	80.3	80.3	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Families (000s)	3,539	3,722	3,832	3,953	3,990	4,030	n.a.
Households (000s) ^{footnote 5[5]}	4,555	4,888	5,169	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.

Other characteristics - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Other characteristic	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Total dependency ratio (%) ^{footnote 3[3]}	67.9	72.3	74.0	74.5	74.3
Median age (years)	40.4	40.9	41.5	42.0	42.3
Age span of baby boom (years)	61-80	66-85	71-90	76-95	81-100
Total fertility rate ^{footnote 4[4]}	1.39	1.39	1.42	1.46	1.50
Female life expectancy at birth (years) ^{footnote 4[4]}	85.2	85.9	86.6	87.3	87.9
Male life expectancy at birth (years) ^{footnote 4[4]}	81.2	82.2	83.1	84.0	84.8
Families (000s)	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Households (000s) ^{footnote 5[5]}	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.

Regional distribution (%) - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Region	2006	2011	2016	2018	2019	2020	2021
Greater Toronto Area	45.8	47.2	47.8	47.8	48.0	48.0	n.a.
Central	22.0	21.6	21.6	21.7	21.7	21.7	n.a.
Eastern	13.2	13.2	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1	n.a.
Southwestern	12.6	12.0	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	n.a.
Northeastern	4.5	4.3	4.1	4.0	3.9	3.9	n.a.
Northwestern	1.9	1.8	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.6	n.a.

Regional distribution (%) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Greater Toronto Area	48.5	48.9	49.3	49.6	49.8
Central	21.8	21.9	22.0	22.0	22.1
Eastern	13.0	12.9	12.9	12.8	12.8
Southwestern	11.6	11.4	11.3	11.2	11.1
Northeastern	3.6	3.4	3.2	3.1	3.0
Northwestern	1.5	1.4	1.4	1.3	1.2

Components of change (000s) ^{footnote 6[6]} — year beginning July 1
Period	Population, beginning of period	Total change	Births	Deaths	Natural increase
Five-Year: 2001–06	11,898	764	658	418	240
Five-Year: 2006–11	12,662	600	697	441	256
Five-Year: 2011–16	13,261	614	702	471	231
Annual: 2016–17	13,875	195	141	102	39
Annual: 2017–18	14,070	239	141	107	34
Annual: 2018–19	14,309	236	140	106	34
Annual: 2019–20	14,545	201	140	112	28
Annual: 2020–21	14,746	81	137	117	20

Components of change (000s) ^{footnote 6[6]} — year beginning July 1
International migration
Period	Immigrants	Net emigrants	Net NPRs	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	653	125	44	573
Five-Year: 2006–11	558	104	57	511
Five-Year: 2011–16	519	123	85	481
Annual: 2016–17	98	19	63	142
Annual: 2017–18	132	16	78	194
Annual: 2018–19	139	16	72	195
Annual: 2019–20	127	−3	40	170
Annual: 2020–21	108	12	−18	78

Components of change (000s) ^{footnote 6[6]} — year beginning July 1
Interprovincial migration
Period	In	Out	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	307	336	−30
Five-Year: 2006–11	296	355	−59
Five-Year: 2011–16	307	346	−39
Annual: 2016–17	72	58	13
Annual: 2017–18	70	60	10
Annual: 2018–19	67	60	7
Annual: 2019–20	75	72	3
Annual: 2020–21	65	83	−17

Note: All population figures are for July 1^st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

September 29, 2021
Office of Economic Policy

Accessible Image Description:

This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the second quarter of 2021 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2016-2020). In the second quarter of 2021, deaths, immigration and emigration were higher than the average of second quarters of the previous five years, while births, the net change in the number of non-permanent residents and net interprovincial migration were lower.

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Updated: October 08, 2021

Published: November 09, 2020

Footnotes

footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada’s population estimates based on the 2016 Census.
footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2021), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total Fertility Rate estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).
footnote[5] Back to paragraph Households are Census data.
footnote[6] Back to paragraph In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.