Ontario Demographic Quarterly: highlights of second quarter
Learn about Ontario’s economic performance and outlook for the second quarter of 2024.
Population growth
Ontario’s population reached 16,124,116 on July 1, 2024, with an increase of 90,553 residents during the second quarter of 2024. This compares to an increase of 144,920 people recorded in the same quarter of 2023.
Over the 12 months to July 1, 2024, the provincial population grew by 500,909 residents, an annual increase of 3.2 per cent. Over the previous 12-month period to July 1, 2023, Ontario’s population had grown by 481,752 people or 3.2 per cent.
Among the provinces, Ontario had the second highest population growth rate during the 12 months to July 1, 2024, after Alberta (4.4%). Canada’s population grew by 1,205,115 (3.0%) over the period.
| Component | Q2 2023 | Q2 2024 | 12 Months to July 1, 2023 | 12 Months to July 1, 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural increase | 4,438 | 5,466 | 8,018 | 10,162 |
| Natural increase – Births | 34,195 | 36,173 | 134,690 | 140,718 |
| Natural increase – Deaths | 29,757 | 30,707 | 126,672 | 130,556 |
| Net migration | 140,482 | 85,067 | 473,734 | 490,747 |
| Migration – Net international migration | 150,633 | 94,278 | 503,464 | 516,020 |
| Migration – International migration – Immigration | 54,950 | 53,828 | 199,332 | 197,657 |
| Migration – International migration – Emigration* | 5,616 | 5,783 | 23,674 | 24,373 |
| Migration – International migration – Net change in non-permanent residents | 101,299 | 46,233 | 327,806 | 342,736 |
| Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Inflow | 139,042 | 108,096 | 495,873 | 569,802 |
| Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Outflow | 37,743 | 61,863 | 168,067 | 227,066 |
| Migration – Net interprovincial migration | -10,151 | -9,211 | -29,730 | -25,273 |
| Migration – Interprovincial migration – Inflow | 27,059 | 25,480 | 86,954 | 77,016 |
| Migration – Interprovincial migration – Outflow | 37,210 | 34,691 | 116,684 | 102,289 |
| Population Growth | 144,920 | 90,533 | 481,752 | 500,909 |
| Population Growth Rate | 3.2% | 3.2% |
Source: Statistics Canada. *Emigration refers to the net of emigration minus returning emigration.
Natural increase
There were 36,173 births during the second quarter of 2024, up from 34,195 in same quarter of 2023. The number of deaths also increased, reaching 30,707 in the second quarter of 2024, compared to 29,757 over the same period of the previous year.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 5,466 in the quarter, up from 4,438 in the same quarter of 2023.
International migration
There were 53,828 new immigrants to Ontario in the second quarter, down from 54,950 in the same quarter of 2023. Over the 12 months to July 1, 2024, 197,657 immigrants settled in the province, down from 199,332 in the previous year. Ontario received 42.6 per cent of all immigrants to Canada over this period, up slightly from 42.5 per cent in the previous year.
There were 5,783 emigrants in the second quarter, compared to 5,616 in the same quarter of 2023.
The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario increased by 46,233 in the second quarter of 2024. The number of asylum claimants living in the province increased by 18,295 in that quarter. Holders of a work permit rose by 14,314, holders of a study permit declined by 2,684, and the number of those holding both a study and a work permit increased by 15,224.
There were 1,377,531 non-permanent residents living in Ontario on July 1, 2024, an increase of 342,736, or 33.1 per cent, over the previous 12 months.
| Net Change by Category | Q2 2023 | Q2 2024 | 12 Months to July 1, 2023 | 12 Months to July 1, 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asylum Claimants | 8,297 | 18,295 | 32,073 | 70,462 |
| Holders of Work Permit Only | 53,322 | 14,314 | 168,842 | 159,811 |
| Holders of Study Permit Only | 14,672 | -2,684 | 60,811 | 38,502 |
| Holders of Both Work & Study Permit | 20,783 | 15,224 | 51,473 | 49,996 |
| Other | 4,225 | 1,084 | 14,607 | 23,965 |
| Total Net Change | 101,299 | 46,233 | 327,806 | 342,736 |
| Number of People as of: | July 1, 2022 | July 1, 2023 | July 1, 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asylum Claimants | 88,036 | 120,109 | 190,571 |
| Holders of Work Permit Only | 258,887 | 427,729 | 587,540 |
| Holders of Study Permit Only | 225,636 | 286,447 | 324,949 |
| Holders of Both Work & Study Permit | 108,842 | 160,315 | 210,311 |
| Other | 25,588 | 40,195 | 64,160 |
| Total | 706,989 | 1,034,795 | 1,377,531 |
| Change from Previous Year | +17.8% | +46.4% | +33.1% |
Source: Statistics Canada.
Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 94,278 in the second quarter, down from a net gain of 150,633 in the same quarter of 2023. Net international migration is the sum of all new immigrants during the quarter, minus the number of emigrants, plus the net change in non-permanent residents.
Interprovincial migration
In the second quarter of 2024, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 9,211 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 10,151 people in the same quarter of 2023. Ontario experienced net losses in its exchanges with 8 of the other 12 provinces and territories. The largest net gains were from Quebec (+530) and Saskatchewan (+428). The largest net losses were to Alberta (-5,184) and British Columbia (-1,881). Over the 12 months to July 1, 2024, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 25,273, compared to a net loss of 29,730 during the previous year.
Ontario Demographic Factsheet
| Region | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 34,339 | 36,111 | 38,240 | 38,936 | 40,083 | 41,289 |
| Ontario | 13,262 | 13,877 | 14,842 | 15,141 | 15,623 | 16,124 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 38.6 | 38.4 | 38.8 | 38.9 | 39.0 | 39.1 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 41,665 | 43,933 | 46,352 | 48,651 | 50,837 | 52,905 |
| Ontario | 16,570 | 17,355 | 18,480 | 19,645 | 20,856 | 22,120 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 39.8 | 39.5 | 39.9 | 40.4 | 41.0 | 41.8 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Age group | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| 5–14 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 10.2 |
| 15–24 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 13.0 |
| 25–44 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 27.6 | 28.0 | 28.8 | 29.5 |
| 45–64 | 28.4 | 28.1 | 26.6 | 26.0 | 25.2 | 24.6 |
| 65–74 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| 75+ | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| 5–14 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.2 |
| 15–24 | 13.4 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 11.5 |
| 25–44 | 29.6 | 29.8 | 29.8 | 29.2 | 28.8 | 28.2 |
| 45–64 | 23.7 | 22.6 | 22.8 | 23.9 | 24.8 | 25.3 |
| 65–74 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| 75+ | 8.6 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.3 |
| Age group | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 16.6 | 16.1 | 15.5 | 15.3 | 14.9 | 14.5 |
| 15–64 | 69.1 | 67.6 | 66.5 | 66.5 | 66.7 | 67.1 |
| 65+ | 14.2 | 16.3 | 18.0 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.3 |
| Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 14.3 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 13.6 |
| 15–64 | 66.6 | 65.2 | 64.9 | 65.0 | 65.2 | 65.1 |
| 65+ | 19.1 | 21.0 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
| Other characteristic | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%) | 60.3 | 62.6 | 64.2 | 64.5 | 63.7 | 63.0 |
| Median age (years) | 39.8 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.4 | 39.9 | 39.6 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 46-65 | 51-70 | 56-75 | 57-76 | 58-77 | 59-78 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.57 | 1.52 | 1.37 | 1.27 | 1.22 | n.a. |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 84.1 | 84.4 | 84.4 | 84.1 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 79.9 | 80.4 | 79.6 | 79.6 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Families (000s) | 3,722 | 3,832 | 4,105 | 4,170 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Households (000s) | 4,888 | 5,169 | 5,491 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Other characteristic | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%) | 64.2 | 67.7 | 67.5 | 66.7 | 66.0 | 66.1 |
| Median age (years) | 39.5 | 40.5 | 41.3 | 41.9 | 42.3 | 42.6 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 61-80 | 66-85 | 71-90 | 76-95 | 81-100 | 86-105 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.21 | 1.23 | 1.26 | 1.28 |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 84.6 | 85.4 | 86.1 | 86.7 | 87.4 | 88.0 |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 80.4 | 81.3 | 82.2 | 83.0 | 83.9 | 84.6 |
| Families (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Households (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Region | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 47.2 | 47.8 | 47.2 | 47.0 | 47.1 | n.a. |
| Central | 21.6 | 21.6 | 22.1 | 22.2 | 22.3 | n.a. |
| Eastern | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.2 | n.a. |
| Southwestern | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | n.a. |
| Northeastern | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | n.a. |
| Northwestern | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | n.a. |
| Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 46.8 | 46.6 | 46.6 | 46.7 | 46.9 | 47.0 |
| Central | 22.6 | 22.8 | 22.9 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.1 |
| Eastern | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 |
| Southwestern | 12.1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 11.9 |
| Northeastern | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| Northwestern | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Period | Population, beginning of period | Total change | Births | Deaths | Natural increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 11,897 | 764 | 666 | 418 | 249 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 12,662 | 600 | 709 | 442 | 268 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 13,262 | 614 | 706 | 471 | 234 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 13,877 | 966 | 701 | 543 | 157 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 14,842 | 299 | 138 | 120 | 18 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 15,141 | 482 | 135 | 127 | 8 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 15,623 | 501 | 141 | 131 | 10 |
| Period | Immigrants | Net emigrants | Net NPRs | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 653 | 125 | 44 | 573 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 558 | 104 | 58 | 512 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 519 | 123 | 87 | 484 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 605 | 75 | 221 | 751 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 227 | 22 | 107 | 312 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 199 | 24 | 328 | 503 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 198 | 24 | 343 | 516 |
| Period | In | Out | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 307 | 336 | -30 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 296 | 355 | -59 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 307 | 346 | -39 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 340 | 326 | 14 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 77 | 108 | -31 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 77 | 106 | -30 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 87 | 92 | -25 |
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.
Other Demographics Reports
Footnotes
- footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada’s population estimates are based on the 2021 Census.
- footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Fall 2024), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
- footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
- footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
- footnote[5] Back to paragraph Households are Census data.
- footnote[6] Back to paragraph In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.