Ontario Demographic Quarterly: highlights of second quarter
Learn about Ontario’s economic performance and outlook for the second quarter of 2021.
Population growth
Ontario’s population reached 14,826,276 on July 1, 2021, with a increase of 30,393 people during the second quarter of 2021. This compares to an increase of 16,388 in the same quarter of the previous year.
Thousands | |
---|---|
Population, April 1, 2021 | 14,795.9 |
Plus Births | 34.9 |
Minus Deaths | 29.0 |
Plus Immigrants | 38.3 |
Minus Emigrants * | 5.4 |
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents | 3.3 |
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals | 25.3 |
Minus Interprovincial Departures | 37.2 |
Population, July 1, 2021 | 14,826.3 |
*Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Births and deaths
There were 34,938 births during the second quarter of 2021, an increase of 0.8% from the same quarter of 2020. The number of deaths decreased by 3.0% to reach 28,974.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 5,964 in the quarter, up from 4,812 in the same quarter of 2020.
International migration
Immigration to Ontario was 38,307 in the quarter, up from 16,067 in the same quarter of 2020. Ontario received 51.5% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, an increase from 47.2% in the same quarter of 2020. Over the 12 months to June 30, Ontario received 107,865 immigrants, down sharply from 127,112 during the previous year.
There were 5,366 emigrants in the second quarter, compared to an unusual net return to Ontario of 7,522 previously-emigrated Canadians during the same quarter of 2020. Ontario accounted for 45.4% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.
The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers and refugee claimants) increased by 3,345 to about 572,000 in the quarter.
Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 36,286 in the second quarter, up from a net gain of 12,394 in the same quarter of 2020.
Components of population growth, Q2 2021 and average for 2016-2020

* Includes emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Interprovincial migration
In the second quarter of 2021, Ontario had a net outflow of 11,857 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net outflow of 818 people in the same quarter of 2020. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with 3 of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net gains from Saskatchewan (781) and Manitoba (636). The largest net losses were to British Columbia (−4,754) and Nova Scotia (−3,234). Over the 12 months to June 30, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration outflow was 17,085, compared to a net inflow of 2,794 during the previous year.
Year-over-year growth
Over the 12 months to June 30, Ontario’s population grew by 80,564 or 0.5%, lower than growth of 201,011 (1.4%) during the previous year. Among the provinces, Ontario had the fifth fastest population growth rate after Prince Edward Island (1.9%), British Columbia (1.1%), Nova Scotia (1.0%) and New Brunswick (0.8%). Canada’s population grew by 208,904 (0.5%) over the period.
For more information contact Alex Munger
Ontario Demographic Factsheet
Region | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Canada | 32,571 | 34,339 | 36,109 | 37,065 | 37,601 | 38,037 | 38,246 |
Ontario | 12,662 | 13,261 | 13,875 | 14,309 | 14,545 | 14,746 | 14,826 |
Ontario as % of Canada | 38.9 | 38.6 | 38.4 | 38.6 | 38.7 | 38.8 | 38.7 |
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Canada | 40,315 | 42,271 | 44,115 | 45,844 | 47,479 |
Ontario | 16,076 | 17,091 | 18,083 | 19,058 | 20,016 |
Ontario as % of Canada | 39.9 | 40.4 | 41.0 | 41.6 | 42.2 |
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Age group | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
5–14 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 10.5 |
15–24 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 12.5 |
25–44 | 29.4 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 26.7 | 27.0 | 27.4 | 27.6 |
45–64 | 26.0 | 28.3 | 28.1 | 27.5 | 27.1 | 26.7 | 26.5 |
65–74 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 10.3 |
75+ | 6.2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 7.8 |
Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
5–14 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 |
15–24 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.5 |
25–44 | 28.4 | 28.3 | 27.8 | 26.9 | 26.3 |
45–64 | 24.1 | 22.7 | 22.8 | 23.6 | 24.2 |
65–74 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 9.0 |
75+ | 8.9 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 13.3 |
Age group | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–14 | 17.8 | 16.6 | 16.1 | 15.8 | 15.6 | 15.5 | 15.3 |
15–64 | 69.2 | 69.1 | 67.6 | 67.3 | 67.1 | 66.9 | 66.6 |
65+ | 13.0 | 14.2 | 16.3 | 16.9 | 17.3 | 17.6 | 18.1 |
Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–14 | 14.9 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 |
15–64 | 65.4 | 63.7 | 62.9 | 62.8 | 62.9 |
65+ | 19.8 | 21.6 | 22.3 | 22.4 | 22.2 |
Other characteristic | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total dependency ratio (%) | 60.6 | 60.4 | 62.6 | 63.2 | 63.4 | 63.6 | 63.9 |
Median age (years) | 38.4 | 39.8 | 40.7 | 40.6 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.7 |
Age span of baby boom (years) | 41-60 | 46-65 | 51-70 | 53-72 | 54-73 | 55-74 | 56-75 |
Total fertility rate | 1.55 | 1.56 | 1.51 | 1.45 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 83.1 | 84.0 | 84.4 | 84.5 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 78.8 | 79.8 | 80.3 | 80.3 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Families (000s) | 3,539 | 3,722 | 3,832 | 3,953 | 3,990 | 4,030 | n.a. |
Households (000s) | 4,555 | 4,888 | 5,169 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Other characteristic | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total dependency ratio (%) | 67.9 | 72.3 | 74.0 | 74.5 | 74.3 |
Median age (years) | 40.4 | 40.9 | 41.5 | 42.0 | 42.3 |
Age span of baby boom (years) | 61-80 | 66-85 | 71-90 | 76-95 | 81-100 |
Total fertility rate | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.42 | 1.46 | 1.50 |
Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 85.2 | 85.9 | 86.6 | 87.3 | 87.9 |
Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 81.2 | 82.2 | 83.1 | 84.0 | 84.8 |
Families (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Households (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Region | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Greater Toronto Area | 45.8 | 47.2 | 47.8 | 47.8 | 48.0 | 48.0 | n.a. |
Central | 22.0 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.7 | n.a. |
Eastern | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | n.a. |
Southwestern | 12.6 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | n.a. |
Northeastern | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | n.a. |
Northwestern | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | n.a. |
Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Greater Toronto Area | 48.5 | 48.9 | 49.3 | 49.6 | 49.8 |
Central | 21.8 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.1 |
Eastern | 13.0 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 12.8 |
Southwestern | 11.6 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 11.1 |
Northeastern | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
Northwestern | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Period | Population, beginning of period | Total change | Births | Deaths | Natural increase |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Five-Year: 2001–06 | 11,898 | 764 | 658 | 418 | 240 |
Five-Year: 2006–11 | 12,662 | 600 | 697 | 441 | 256 |
Five-Year: 2011–16 | 13,261 | 614 | 702 | 471 | 231 |
Annual: 2016–17 | 13,875 | 195 | 141 | 102 | 39 |
Annual: 2017–18 | 14,070 | 239 | 141 | 107 | 34 |
Annual: 2018–19 | 14,309 | 236 | 140 | 106 | 34 |
Annual: 2019–20 | 14,545 | 201 | 140 | 112 | 28 |
Annual: 2020–21 | 14,746 | 81 | 137 | 117 | 20 |
Period | Immigrants | Net emigrants | Net NPRs | Net |
---|---|---|---|---|
Five-Year: 2001–06 | 653 | 125 | 44 | 573 |
Five-Year: 2006–11 | 558 | 104 | 57 | 511 |
Five-Year: 2011–16 | 519 | 123 | 85 | 481 |
Annual: 2016–17 | 98 | 19 | 63 | 142 |
Annual: 2017–18 | 132 | 16 | 78 | 194 |
Annual: 2018–19 | 139 | 16 | 72 | 195 |
Annual: 2019–20 | 127 | −3 | 40 | 170 |
Annual: 2020–21 | 108 | 12 | −18 | 78 |
Period | In | Out | Net |
---|---|---|---|
Five-Year: 2001–06 | 307 | 336 | −30 |
Five-Year: 2006–11 | 296 | 355 | −59 |
Five-Year: 2011–16 | 307 | 346 | −39 |
Annual: 2016–17 | 72 | 58 | 13 |
Annual: 2017–18 | 70 | 60 | 10 |
Annual: 2018–19 | 67 | 60 | 7 |
Annual: 2019–20 | 75 | 72 | 3 |
Annual: 2020–21 | 65 | 83 | −17 |
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.
September 29, 2021
Office of Economic Policy
Accessible Image Description:
This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the second quarter of 2021 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2016-2020). In the second quarter of 2021, deaths, immigration and emigration were higher than the average of second quarters of the previous five years, while births, the net change in the number of non-permanent residents and net interprovincial migration were lower.
Footnotes
- footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada’s population estimates based on the 2016 Census.
- footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2021), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
- footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
- footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total Fertility Rate estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).
- footnote[5] Back to paragraph Households are Census data.
- footnote[6] Back to paragraph In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.