Ontario Demographic Quarterly: highlights of fourth quarter

Learn about Ontario’s economic performance and outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024.

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Population growth

Ontario’s population reached 16,182,641 on January 1, 2025, with an increase of 10,839 residents during the fourth quarter of 2024. This compares to an increase of 125,914 people recorded in the same quarter of 2023.

During calendar year 2024, the provincial population grew by 238,262 residents, an annual increase of 1.5 per cent. In 2023, Ontario’s population had grown by 542,284 people or 3.5 per cent.

Among the provinces, Ontario had the third slowest population growth rate in 2024, after New Brunswick (1.1%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (0.7%). Canada’s population grew by 744,324 (1.8%) over the period. Compared to 2023, Ontario and Prince Edward Island recorded the most significant slowdowns in annual population growth rate (2.0 percentage points slower each). British Columbia also experienced a notable decrease in its growth rate (1.7 percentage points slower).

Components of Demographic Change for Ontario
Component	Q4 2023	Q4 2024	Calendar Year 2023	Calendar Year 2024
Natural increase	835	1,369	8,328	11,840
Natural increase – Births	34,745	36,045	136,858	144,016
Natural increase – Deaths	33,910	34,676	128,530	132,176
Net migration	125,079	9,470	533,956	226,422
Migration – Net international migration	128,045	11,589	561,941	250,007
Migration – International migration – Immigration	43,892	47,958	206,863	205,854
Migration – International migration – Emigration^*	5,673	5,845	23,956	24,670
Migration – International migration – Net change in non-permanent residents	89,826	-30,524	379,034	68,823
Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Inflow	141,208	71,272	572,388	407,037
Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Outflow	51,382	101,796	193,354	338,214
Migration – Net interprovincial migration	-2,966	-2,119	-27,985	-23,585
Migration – Interprovincial migration – Inflow	12,312	11,297	80,195	73,857
Migration – Interprovincial migration – Outflow	15,278	13,416	108,180	97,442
Population Growth	125,914	10,839	542,284	238,262
Population Growth Rate			3.5%	1.5%

Source: Statistics Canada. *Emigration refers to the net of emigration minus returning emigration.

Natural increase

There were 36,045 births during the fourth quarter of 2024, up from 34,745 in same quarter of 2023. The number of deaths also increased, reaching 34,676 in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to 33,910 over the same period of the previous year.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 1,369 in the quarter, up from 835 in the same quarter of 2023.

International migration

There were 47,958 new immigrants to Ontario in the fourth quarter, up from 43,892 in the same quarter of 2023. In 2024, there were 205,854 immigrants to the province, down from 206,863 in the previous year. Ontario received 42.6 per cent of all immigrants to Canada over this period, down from 43.8 per cent in the previous year.

There were 5,845 emigrants in the fourth quarter, compared to 5,673 in the same quarter of 2023.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario decreased by 30,524 in the fourth quarter of 2024. In the past 50 years, the only quarter when Ontario experienced a larger decrease in non-permanents residents was the third quarter of 2020 (-33,458), which reflected international travel restrictions during the pandemic. The number of asylum claimants living in the province increased by 11,808 in that quarter. Holders of a work permit fell by 2,292, holders of a study permit declined by 25,307, and the number of those holding both a study and a work permit decreased by 12,895.

There were 1,345,300 non-permanent residents living in Ontario on January 1, 2025, an increase of 68,823, or 5.4 per cent, over the previous 12 months.

Net Change in the Number of Non-Permanent Residents in Ontario
Net Change by Category	Q4 2023	Q4 2024	Calendar Year 2023	Calendar Year 2024
Asylum Claimants	20,647	11,808	54,313	63,849
Holders of Work Permit Only	39,135	-2,292	197,868	72,714
Holders of Study Permit Only	11,883	-25,307	57,010	-62,984
Holders of Both Work & Study Permit	10,249	-12,895	48,821	-12,250
Other	7,912	-1,838	21,022	7,494
Total Net Change	89,826	-30,524	379,034	68,823

Non-Permanent Residents Living in Ontario
Number of People as of:	January 1, 2023	January 1, 2024	January 1, 2025
Asylum Claimants	100,438	154,751	218,600
Holders of Work Permit Only	342,804	540,672	613,386
Holders of Study Permit Only	284,928	341,938	278,954
Holders of Both Work & Study Permit	136,212	185,033	172,783
Other	33,061	54,083	61,577
Total	897,443	1,276,477	1,345,300
Change from Previous Year	+42.6%	+42.2%	+5.4%

Source: Statistics Canada.

Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 11,589 in the fourth quarter, down from a net gain of 128,045 in the same quarter of 2023. Net international migration is the sum of all new immigrants during the quarter, minus the number of emigrants, plus the net change in non-permanent residents.

Interprovincial migration

In the fourth quarter of 2024, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 2,119 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 2,966 people in the same quarter of 2023. During calendar year 2024, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 23,585. While this net loss is above the average for the last 10 years, it is the smallest net loss recorded in the last four years.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

Population (000s) - Estimates^{footnote 1[1]}
Region	2011	2016	2021	2022	2023	2024
Canada	34,339	36,111	38,240	38,936	40,083	41,289
Ontario	13,262	13,877	14,842	15,141	15,623	16,124
Ontario as % of Canada	38.6	38.4	38.8	38.9	39.0	39.1
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	0.9	0.9	1.4	2.0	3.2	3.2

Population (000s) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046	2051
Canada	41,665	43,933	46,352	48,651	50,837	52,905
Ontario	16,445	16,900	17,737	18,673	19,706	20,805
Ontario as % of Canada	39.5	38.5	38.3	38.4	38.8	39.3
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	1.0	0.5	1.0	1.0	1.1	1.1

Age distribution (%) - Estimates^{footnote 1[1]}
Age group	2011	2016	2021	2022	2023	2024
0–4	5.4	5.2	4.9	4.7	4.6	4.4
5–14	11.2	11.0	10.7	10.6	10.4	10.2
15–24	13.7	13.0	12.2	12.4	12.7	13.0
25–44	27.1	26.5	27.6	28.0	28.8	29.5
45–64	28.4	28.1	26.6	26.0	25.2	24.6
65–74	7.6	9.2	10.3	10.3	10.2	10.2
75+	6.6	7.1	7.7	8.0	8.1	8.1

Age distribution (%) - MOF Projections^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046	2051
0–4	4.4	4.3	4.3	4.3	4.4	4.5
5–14	10.0	9.6	9.2	9.0	9.0	9.2
15–24	13.0	12.5	12.1	11.6	11.3	11.2
25–44	29.6	29.2	29.1	28.6	28.4	28.3
45–64	23.9	23.0	23.2	24.1	24.7	24.9
65–74	10.6	11.3	10.6	9.5	9.1	9.2
75+	8.6	10.1	11.6	12.8	13.0	12.8

Selected age groups (%) - Estimates^{footnote 1[1]}
Age group	2011	2016	2021	2022	2023	2024
0–14	16.6	16.1	15.5	15.3	14.9	14.5
15–64	69.1	67.6	66.5	66.5	66.7	67.1
65+	14.2	16.3	18.0	18.3	18.3	18.3

Selected age groups (%) - MOF Projections^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046	2051
0–14	14.4	13.9	13.5	13.3	13.4	13.6
15–64	66.4	64.7	64.3	64.3	64.5	64.3
65+	19.2	21.5	22.3	22.3	22.1	22.0

Other characteristics - Estimates^{footnote 1[1]}
Other characteristic	2011	2016	2021	2022	2023	2024
Total dependency ratio (%)^{footnote 3[3]}	60.3	62.6	64.2	64.5	63.7	63.0
Median age (years)	39.8	40.7	40.7	40.4	39.9	39.6
Age span of baby boom (years)	46-65	51-70	56-75	57-76	58-77	59-78
Total fertility rate^{footnote 4[4]}	1.57	1.52	1.37	1.27	1.22	n.a.
Female life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	84.1	84.4	84.3	84.1	84.5	n.a.
Male life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	79.9	80.4	79.6	79.6	80.1	n.a.
Families (000s)	3,722	3,818	4,017	4,070	4,169	4,260
Households (000s)^{footnote 5[5]}	5,062	5,318	5,741	5,840	6,014	6,175

Other characteristics - MOF Projections^{footnote 2[2]}
Other characteristic	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046	2051
Total dependency ratio (%)^{footnote 3[3]}	64.6	68.9	69.3	68.6	67.9	68.1
Median age (years)	39.8	41.0	41.9	42.5	42.6	42.8
Age span of baby boom (years)	61-80	66-85	71-90	76-95	81-100	86-105
Total fertility rate^{footnote 4[4]}	1.18	1.18	1.21	1.23	1.26	1.28
Female life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	84.6	85.4	86.1	86.7	87.4	88.0
Male life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	80.4	81.3	82.2	83.0	83.9	84.6
Families (000s)	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Households (000s)^{footnote 5[5]}	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.

Regional distribution (%) - Estimates^{footnote 1[1]}
Region	2011	2016	2021	2022	2023	2024
Greater Toronto Area	47.2	47.8	47.2	47.0	47.3	47.6
Central	21.6	21.6	22.1	22.2	22.2	22.1
Eastern	13.2	13.1	13.3	13.3	13.2	13.1
Southwestern	12.0	11.7	11.9	12.0	11.9	11.8
Northeastern	4.3	4.1	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.8
Northwestern	1.8	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.6	1.6

Regional distribution (%) - MOF Projections^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046	2051
Greater Toronto Area	46.8	46.6	46.6	46.7	46.9	47.0
Central	22.6	22.8	22.9	23.0	23.0	23.1
Eastern	13.2	13.5	13.5	13.6	13.6	13.6
Southwestern	12.1	12.0	12.0	12.0	11.9	11.9
Northeastern	3.8	3.7	3.5	3.4	3.3	3.2
Northwestern	1.5	1.5	1.4	1.4	1.3	1.3

Components of change (000s) — year beginning July 1
Period	Population, beginning of period	Total change	Births	Deaths	Natural increase
Five-Year: 2001–06	11,897	764	666	418	249
Five-Year: 2006–11	12,662	600	709	442	268
Five-Year: 2011–16	13,262	614	706	471	234
Five-Year: 2016–21	13,877	966	701	543	157
Annual: 2021–22	14,842	299	138	120	18
Annual: 2022–23	15,141	482	135	127	8
Annual: 2023–24	15,623	501	141	131	10

Components of change (000s) — year beginning July 1
International migration
Period	Immigrants	Net emigrants	Net NPRs	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	653	125	44	573
Five-Year: 2006–11	558	104	58	512
Five-Year: 2011–16	519	123	87	484
Five-Year: 2016–21	605	75	221	751
Annual: 2021–22	227	22	107	312
Annual: 2022–23	199	24	328	503
Annual: 2023–24	198	24	343	516

Components of change (000s) — year beginning July 1
Interprovincial migration
Period	In	Out	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	307	336	-30
Five-Year: 2006–11	296	355	-59
Five-Year: 2011–16	307	346	-39
Five-Year: 2016–21	340	326	14
Annual: 2021–22	77	108	-31
Annual: 2022–23	77	106	-30
Annual: 2023–24	87	92	-25

Note: All population figures are for July 1^st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

Other Demographics Reports

Updated: May 07, 2025

Published: March 17, 2022

Footnotes

footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada’s population estimates are based on the 2021 Census.
footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance, except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
footnote[5] Back to paragraph In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.