Ontario Demographic Quarterly: highlights of fourth quarter

Learn about Ontario’s economic performance and outlook for the fourth quarter of 2022.

On this page Skip this page navigation

Population growth

Ontario’s population reached 15,386,407 on January 1, 2023, with a increase of 123,747 people during the fourth quarter of 2022. This compares to an increase of 39,305 people recorded in the same quarter of 2021.

Population growth, Ontario, Q4 2022
Components of demographic change	Number of people (in thousands)
Population, October 1, 2022	15,262.7
Plus Births	35.6
Minus Deaths	30.5
Plus Immigrants	33.3
Minus Emigrants^*	5.1
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents	97.7
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals	13.8
Minus Interprovincial Departures	21.1
Population, January 1, 2023	15,386.4

^*Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.

Births and deaths

There were 35,644 births during the fourth quarter of 2022, an increase of 4.1% from the same quarter of 2021. The number of deaths decreased by 1.2% to reach 30,506.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 5,138 in the quarter, up from 3,357 in the same quarter of 2021.

International migration

Immigration to Ontario was 33,348 in the fourth quarter, down significantly from 66,946 in the same quarter of 2021. Ontario received 40.1% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, a decrease from 48.4% in the same quarter of 2021. During calendar year 2022, Ontario received 184,771 immigrants, down from 199,291 in 2021.

There were 5,143 emigrants in the fourth quarter, compared to 7,316 during the same quarter of 2021. Ontario accounted for 43.6% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non‑permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. international students, foreign workers, and refugee claimants) increased by 97,715 to about 891,000 by January 1, 2023.

Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 125,920 in the fourth quarter, up from a net gain of 42,863 in the same quarter of 2021.

Components of population growth, Q4 2022 and average for 2017-2021

Interprovincial migration

In the fourth quarter of 2022, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 7,311 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 6,915 people in the same quarter of 2021. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with Quebec (+704), Manitoba (+577) and Saskatchewan (+248), but net losses with all other provinces. The largest net losses were to Alberta (-4,831), Nova Scotia (-1,227) and New Brunswick (-1,025). During calendar year 2022, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 52,017, compared to a net loss of 32,105 in 2021.

Year-over-year growth

In calendar year 2022, Ontario’s population grew by 445,495 or 3.0%, much faster than in 2021 (200,810 or 1.4%). Among the provinces, Ontario had the fifth fastest population growth rate after Prince Edward Island (4.3%), Alberta (3.7%), Nova Scotia (3.5%), and New Brunswick (3.3%). Canada’s population grew by 1,050,110 (2.7%) in 2022.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

Population (000s) - Estimates^{footnote 1[1]}
Region	2006	2011	2016	2019	2020	2021	2022
Canada	32,571	34,339	36,109	37,601	38,007	38,226	38,930
Ontario	12,662	13,261	13,875	14,545	14,726	14,809	15,109
Ontario as % of Canada	38.9	38.6	38.4	38.7	38.7	38.7	38.8
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	1.3	0.9	0.9	1.6	1.2	0.6	2.0

Population (000s) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Canada	40,965	43,276	45,282	47,070	48,770
Ontario	16,043	17,121	18,209	19,308	20,418
Ontario as % of Canada	39.2	39.6	40.2	41.0	41.9
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	1.5	1.3	1.2	1.2	1.1

Age distribution (%) - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Age group	2006	2011	2016	2019	2020	2021	2022
0–4	5.4	5.4	5.2	5.0	4.9	4.8	4.7
5–14	12.3	11.2	11.0	10.7	10.6	10.5	10.4
15–24	13.8	13.7	12.9	13.0	12.8	12.4	12.6
25–44	29.4	27.1	26.5	27.0	27.3	27.6	28.0
45–64	26.0	28.3	28.1	27.1	26.7	26.5	25.9
65–74	6.9	7.6	9.2	9.8	10.0	10.3	10.3
75+	6.2	6.6	7.1	7.5	7.6	7.8	8.0

Age distribution (%) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
0–4	4.8	4.9	4.9	4.9	5.0
5–14	9.9	9.7	9.8	9.9	9.9
15–24	12.7	12.4	12.0	11.9	12.1
25–44	28.8	28.9	28.6	27.8	27.0
45–64	24.1	22.6	22.7	23.5	24.2
65–74	10.8	11.3	10.4	9.2	8.8
75+	8.9	10.2	11.6	12.8	13.0

Selected age groups (%) - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Age group	2006	2011	2016	2019	2020	2021	2022
0–14	17.8	16.6	16.1	15.6	15.5	15.3	15.1
15–64	69.2	69.1	67.6	67.1	66.9	66.5	66.5
65+	13.0	14.2	16.3	17.3	17.7	18.1	18.4

Selected age groups (%) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
0–14	14.7	14.6	14.7	14.8	14.9
15–64	65.5	64.0	63.3	63.2	63.3
65+	19.8	21.5	22.0	22.0	21.8

Other characteristics - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Other characteristic	2006	2011	2016	2019	2020	2021	2022
Total dependency ratio (%)^{footnote 3[3]}	60.6	60.4	62.6	63.4	63.7	64.0	64.3
Median age (years)	38.4	39.8	40.7	40.5	40.5	40.7	40.4
Age span of baby boom (years)	41-60	46-65	51-70	54-73	55-74	56-75	57-76
Total fertility rate^{footnote 4[4]}	1.55	1.56	1.51	1.42	1.34	1.37	n.a.
Female life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	82.9	83.7	84.0	84.4	84.0	n.a.	n.a.
Male life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	78.3	79.4	79.9	80.2	79.5	n.a.	n.a.
Families (000s)	3,539	3,722	3,832	4,010	4,039	4,105	4,170
Households (000s)^{footnote 5[5]}	4,555	4,888	5,169	n.a.	n.a.	5,491	n.a.

Other characteristics - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Other characteristic	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Total dependency ratio (%)^{footnote 3[3]}	66.8	70.6	72.0	72.5	72.3
Median age (years)	40.4	40.8	41.3	41.8	42.0
Age span of baby boom (years)	61-80	66-85	71-90	76-95	81-100
Total fertility rate^{footnote 4[4]}	1.37	1.38	1.41	1.46	1.50
Female life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	85.2	85.9	86.6	87.3	87.9
Male life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	80.9	81.9	82.9	83.9	84.8
Families (000s)	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Households (000s)^{footnote 5[5]}	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.

Regional distribution (%) - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Region	2006	2011	2016	2019	2020	2021	2022
Greater Toronto Area	45.8	47.2	47.8	48.0	48.0	47.8	47.8
Central	22.0	21.6	21.6	21.7	21.7	21.9	21.9
Eastern	13.2	13.2	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1
Southwestern	12.6	12.0	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7
Northeastern	4.5	4.3	4.1	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.8
Northwestern	1.9	1.8	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.6	1.6

Regional distribution (%) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Greater Toronto Area	48.5	48.7	48.9	49.1	49.1
Central	21.9	22.0	22.2	22.3	22.4
Eastern	13.0	13.0	13.0	13.0	13.0
Southwestern	11.5	11.4	11.4	11.3	11.3
Northeastern	3.6	3.4	3.2	3.1	3.0
Northwestern	1.5	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.2

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 6[6]} — year beginning July 1
Period	Population, beginning of period	Total change	Births	Deaths	Natural increase
Five-Year: 2001–06	11,898	764	658	418	240
Five-Year: 2006–11	12,662	600	697	441	256
Five-Year: 2011–16	13,261	614	702	471	231
Annual: 2016–17	13,875	195	141	102	39
Annual: 2017–18	14,070	239	141	107	34
Annual: 2018–19	14,309	236	140	106	34
Annual: 2019–20	14,545	181	140	112	29
Annual: 2020–21	14,726	83	137	116	21
Annual: 2021–22	14,809	300	142	121	20

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 6[6]} — year beginning July 1
International migration
Period	Immigrants	Net emigrants	Net NPRs	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	653	125	44	573
Five-Year: 2006–11	558	104	57	511
Five-Year: 2011–16	519	123	85	481
Annual: 2016–17	98	19	63	142
Annual: 2017–18	132	16	78	194
Annual: 2018–19	139	16	72	195
Annual: 2019–20	127	15	37	150
Annual: 2020–21	108	8	−19	81
Annual: 2021–22	227	18	117	327

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 6[6]} — year beginning July 1
Interprovincial migration
Period	In	Out	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	307	336	−30
Five-Year: 2006–11	296	355	−59
Five-Year: 2011–16	307	346	−39
Annual: 2016–17	72	58	13
Annual: 2017–18	70	60	10
Annual: 2018–19	67	60	7
Annual: 2019–20	82	79	3
Annual: 2020–21	62	81	−18
Annual: 2021–22	78	125	−47

Note: All population figures are for July 1^st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

March 22, 2023
Office of Economic Policy

For more information contact Alex Munger 437-242-7697.

Other Demographics Reports

Accessible description of chart

Components of population growth, Q4 2022 and average for 2017-2021

This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2017-2021). In the fourth quarter of 2022, the net change in the number of non-permanent residents was higher than the average of the fourth quarters of the previous five years, while net interprovincial migration was lower. All other components were generally the same as their five year average.

Return to chart

Updated: April 05, 2023

Published: March 17, 2022

Footnotes

footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada's population estimates based on the 2016 Census.
footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Summer 2022), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
footnote[5] Back to paragraph Households are Census data.
footnote[6] Back to paragraph In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.