Ontario Demographic Quarterly: highlights of fourth quarter

Learn about Ontario’s economic performance and outlook for the fourth quarter of 2023.

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Population growth

Ontario’s population reached 15,911,285 on January 1, 2024, with an increase of 109,517 residents during the fourth quarter of 2024. This compares to an increase of 94,218 people recorded in the same quarter of 2022.

In calendar year 2023, the provincial population grew by 533,106 residents, an annual increase of 3.5 per cent. In 2022, Ontario’s population had grown by 378,738 people or 2.5 per cent.

Among the provinces, Ontario had the third highest population growth rate during calendar year 2023, after Alberta (4.4%) and Prince Edward Island (3.7%). Canada’s population grew by 1,271,872 (3.2%) over the 12-month period.

Components of Demographic Change for Ontario
Component	Q4 2022	Q4 2023	Calendar Year 2022	Calendar Year 2023
Natural increase	1,231	2,685	13,686	16,772
Natural increase – Births	32,687	34,754	134,681	141,613
Natural increase – Deaths	31,456	32,069	120,995	124,841
Net migration	92,987	106,832	365,052	516,334
Migration – Net international migration	98,919	110,480	403,868	552,531
Migration – International migration – Immigration	33,390	43,919	185,005	206,834
Migration – International migration – Emigration^*	4,431	4,568	13,944	14,454
Migration – International migration – Net change in non-permanent residents	69,960	71,129	232,807	360,151
Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Inflow	120,129	137,262	417,869	583,094
Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Outflow	50,169	66,133	185,062	222,943
Migration – Net interprovincial migration	-5,932	-3,648	-38,816	-36,197
Migration – Interprovincial migration – Inflow	14,154	12,126	84,785	76,257
Migration – Interprovincial migration – Outflow	20,086	15,774	123,601	112,454
Population Growth	94,218	109,517	378,738	533,106
Population Growth Rate			2.5%	3.5%

Source: Statistics Canada. ^*Emigration refers to the net of: emigration minus returning emigration plus net temporary emigration.

Natural increase

There were 34,754 births during the fourth quarter of 2023, up from 32,687 in same quarter of 2022. The number of deaths also increased, reaching 32,069 in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to 31,456 over the same period of the previous year.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 2,685 in the quarter, up from 1,231 in the same quarter of 2022.

International migration

There were 43,919 new immigrants to Ontario in the fourth quarter, up from 33,390 in the same quarter of 2022. In calendar year 2023, 206,834 immigrants settled in the province, up from 185,005 in the previous year. Ontario received 43.8 per cent of all immigrants to Canada over this period, up from 42.3 per cent in the previous year.

There were 4,568 emigrants in the fourth quarter, compared to 4,431 in the same quarter of 2022.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario increased by 71,129 in the fourth quarter of 2023. The number of asylum claimants living in the province icreased by 19,291 in that quarter. Holders of a work permit rose by 30,668, holders of a study permit grew by 10,217, and the number of those holding both a study and a work permit increased by 9,077.

There were 1,204,736 non-permanent residents living in Ontario on January 1, 2024, an increase of 360,151, or 42.6 per cent, over the previous 12 months.

Net Change in the Number of Non-Permanent Residents in Ontario
Net Change by Category	Q4 2022	Q4 2023	Calendar Year 2022	Calendar Year 2023
Asylum Claimants	5,907	19,291	11,012	47,066
Holders of Work Permit Only	28,441	30,668	96,681	197,949
Holders of Study Permit Only	23,559	10,217	76,733	54,884
Holders of Both Work & Study Permit	9,918	9,077	41,367	48,317
Other	2,135	1,876	7,014	11,935
Total Net Change	69,960	71,129	232,807	360,151

Non-Permanent Residents Living in Ontario
Number of People as of:	Jan. 1, 2022	Jan. 1, 2023	Jan. 1, 2024
Asylum Claimants	66,652	77,664	124,730
Holders of Work Permit Only	228,508	325,189	523,138
Holders of Study Permit Only	204,291	281,024	335,908
Holders of Both Work & Study Permit	92,424	133,791	182,108
Other	19,903	26,917	38,852
Total	611,778	844,585	1,204,736
Change from Previous Year	+7.4%	+38.1%	+42.6%

Source: Statistics Canada.

Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 110,480 in the fourth quarter, up from a net gain of 98,919 in the same quarter of 2022. Net international migration is the sum of all new immigrants during the quarter, minus the number of emigrants, plus the net change in non-permanent residents.

Interprovincial migration

In the fourth quarter of 2023, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 3,648 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 5,932 people in the same quarter of 2022. Ontario experienced net losses in its exchanges with 7 of the other 12 provinces and territories. The largest net gains were from Quebec (+1,139) and Saskatchewan (+183). The largest net losses were to Alberta (-3,812) and Nova Scotia (-768). In calendar year 2023, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 36,197, compared to a net loss of 38,816 in 2022.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

Population (000s) - Estimates^{footnote 1[1]}
Region	2006	2011	2016	2020	2021	2022	2023
Canada	32,571	34,339	36,111	38,029	38,240	38,939	40,098
Ontario	12,662	13,262	13,877	14,762	14,842	15,145	15,608
Ontario as % of Canada	38.9	38.6	38.4	38.8	38.8	38.9	38.9
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	1.3	0.9	0.9	1.6	0.5	2.0	3.1

Population (000s) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Canada	40,965	43,276	45,282	47,070	48,770
Ontario	16,627	17,819	19,065	20,355	21,692
Ontario as % of Canada	40.6	41.2	42.1	43.2	44.5
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	2.1	1.4	1.4	1.3	1.3

Age distribution (%) - Estimates ^{footnote 3[3]}
Age group	2006	2011	2016	2020	2021	2022	2023
0–4	5.4	5.4	5.2	4.9	4.9	4.7	4.6
5–14	12.3	11.2	11.0	10.7	10.7	10.6	10.4
15–24	13.8	13.7	13.0	12.6	12.2	12.5	12.8
25–44	29.4	27.1	26.5	27.3	27.6	27.9	28.7
45–64	26.0	28.4	28.1	26.8	26.6	26.0	25.3
65–74	6.9	7.6	9.2	10.0	10.3	10.3	10.2
75+	6.2	6.6	7.1	7.5	7.7	8.0	8.1

Age distribution (%) - MOF Projections^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
0–4	4.8	5.0	5.0	5.1	5.1
5–14	9.7	9.6	9.9	10.2	10.2
15–24	13.8	13.5	12.9	12.8	13.1
25–44	29.3	29.6	29.4	28.7	27.9
45–64	23.4	21.9	21.8	22.6	23.4
65–74	10.4	10.8	9.9	8.7	8.2
75+	8.6	9.7	11.0	11.9	12.0

Selected age groups (%) - Estimates^{footnote 3[3]}
Age group	2006	2011	2016	2020	2021	2022	2023
0–14	17.8	16.6	16.1	15.7	15.5	15.3	14.9
15–64	69.2	69.1	67.6	66.8	66.5	66.5	66.7
65+	13.0	14.2	16.3	17.5	18.0	18.3	18.3

Selected age groups (%) - MOF Projections^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
0–14	14.4	14.6	15.0	15.3	15.4
15–64	66.5	64.9	64.2	64.1	64.4
65+	19.0	20.5	20.9	20.7	20.3

Other characteristics - Estimates^{footnote 3[3]}
Other characteristic	2006	2011	2016	2020	2021	2022	2023
Total dependency ratio (%)^{footnote 4[4]}	60.6	60.3	62.6	63.6	64.2	64.5	63.9
Median age (years)	38.4	39.8	40.7	40.5	40.7	40.4	40.0
Age span of baby boom (years)	41-60	46-65	51-70	55-74	56-75	57-76	58-77
Total fertility rate^{footnote 5[5]}	1.59	1.57	1.52	1.34	1.37	1.27	n.a.
Female life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 5[5]}	83.2	84.1	84.4	84.4	84.4	84.1	n.a.
Male life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 5[5]}	78.7	79.9	80.4	79.9	79.6	79.6	n.a.
Families (000s)	3,539	3,722	3,832	4,039	4,105	4,170	n.a.
Households (000s)^{footnote 6[6]}	4,555	4,888	5,169	n.a.	5,491	n.a.	n.a.

Other characteristics - MOF Projections^{footnote 2[2]}
Other characteristic	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Total dependency ratio (%)^{footnote 4[4]}	64.5	68.3	69.7	70.3	70.0
Median age (years)	39.2	39.5	39.9	40.2	40.3
Age span of baby boom (years)	61-80	66-85	71-90	76-95	81-100
Total fertility rate^{footnote 5[5]}	1.37	1.38	1.41	1.46	1.50
Female life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 5[5]}	85.1	85.7	86.4	87.0	87.6
Male life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 5[5]}	80.8	81.7	82.6	83.5	84.3
Families (000s)	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Households (000s)^{footnote 6[6]}	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.

Regional distribution (%) - Estimates^{footnote 3[3]}
Region	2006	2011	2016	2020	2021	2022	2023
Greater Toronto Area	45.8	47.2	47.8	48.0	47.8	47.8	n.a.
Central	22.0	21.6	21.6	21.7	21.9	21.9	n.a.
Eastern	13.2	13.2	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1	n.a.
Southwestern	12.6	12.0	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	n.a.
Northeastern	4.5	4.3	4.1	3.9	3.9	3.8	n.a.
Northwestern	1.9	1.8	1.7	1.6	1.6	1.6	n.a.

Regional distribution (%) - MOF Projections^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Greater Toronto Area	48.2	48.4	48.5	48.6	48.6
Central	22.0	22.2	22.3	22.5	22.6
Eastern	12.8	12.8	12.8	12.9	12.9
Southwestern	11.8	11.7	11.6	11.5	11.5
Northeastern	3.7	3.5	3.4	3.2	3.1
Northwestern	1.5	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.2

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 1[1]},^{footnote 7[7]} — year beginning July 1
Period	Population, beginning of period	Total change	Births	Deaths	Natural increase
Five-Year: 2001–06	11,897	764	666	418	249
Five-Year: 2006–11	12,662	600	709	442	268
Five-Year: 2011–16	13,262	614	706	471	234
Five-Year: 2016–21	13,877	966	701	543	157
Annual: 2021–22	14,842	303	138	119	19
Annual: 2022–23	15,145	463	138	123	15

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 1[1]},^{footnote 7[7]} — year beginning July 1
International migration
Period	Immigrants	Net emigrants	Net NPRs	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	653	125	44	573
Five-Year: 2006–11	558	104	58	512
Five-Year: 2011–16	519	123	87	484
Five-Year: 2016–21	605	75	221	751
Annual: 2021–22	227	14	101	314
Annual: 2022–23	199	14	305	490

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 1[1]},^{footnote 7[7]} — year beginning July 1
Interprovincial migration
Period	In	Out	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	307	336	−30
Five-Year: 2006–11	296	355	−59
Five-Year: 2011–16	339	378	−39
Five-Year: 2016–21	372	358	14
Annual: 2021–22	86	117	−31
Annual: 2022–23	81	123	−42

Note: All population figures are for July 1^st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

Other Demographics Reports

Updated: April 16, 2024

Published: March 17, 2022

Footnotes

footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada’s population estimates for sub-provincial geographic areas are still based on the 2016 Census.
All other estimates are based on the 2021 Census.
footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Summer 2023), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
footnote[3] Back to paragraph Estimates are based on the 2016 Census.
footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
footnote[5] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
footnote[6] Back to paragraph Households are Census data.
footnote[7] Back to paragraph In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.