Ontario Demographic Quarterly: highlights of fourth quarter
Learn about Ontario’s economic performance and outlook for the fourth quarter of 2021.
Population growth
Ontario’s population reached 14,951,825 on January 1, 2022, with a increase of 36,555 people during the fourth quarter of 2021. This compares to an increase of 18,727 people recorded in the same quarter of 2020.
Thousands | |
---|---|
Population, October 1, 2021 | 14,915.3 |
Plus Births | 32.7 |
Minus Deaths | 30.2 |
Plus Immigrants | 66.7 |
Minus Emigrants * | 7.5 |
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents | -18.6 |
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals | 12.3 |
Minus Interprovincial Departures | 18.9 |
Population, January 1, 2022 | 14,951.8 |
*Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Births and deaths
There were 32,678 births during the fourth quarter of 2021, an increase of 2.0% from the same quarter of 2020. The number of deaths decreased by 1.6% to reach 30,197.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 2,481 in the quarter, up from 1,371 in the same quarter of 2020.
International migration
Immigration to Ontario was 66,691 in the quarter, up from 17,315 in the same quarter of 2020. Ontario received 48.3% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, an increase from 42.0% in the same quarter of 2020. During calendar year 2021, Ontario received 198,530 immigrants, up sharply from 82,963 in 2020.
There were 7,463 emigrants in the fourth quarter, compared to 2,000 during the same quarter of 2020. Ontario accounted for 43.6% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.
The number of non‑permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers and refugee claimants) decreased by 18,558 to about 600,000 in the quarter.
Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 40,670 in the fourth quarter, up from a net gain of 17,428 in the same quarter of 2020.
Components of population growth, Q4 2021 and average for 2016-2020

* Includes emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Interprovincial migration
In the fourth quarter of 2021, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 6,596 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 72 people in the same quarter of 2020. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with 4 of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net gains from Manitoba (701) and Saskatchewan (367). The largest net losses were to Alberta (-2,618) and Nova Scotia (-1,791). During calendar year 2021, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 31,232, compared to a net loss of 1,769 in 2020.
Year-over-year growth
During calendar year 2021, Ontario’s population grew by 192,394 or 1.3%, faster than in 2020 (70,705 or 0.5%). Among the provinces, Ontario had the fifth fastest population growth rate after Prince Edward Island (3.0%), Nova Scotia (2.1%), British Columbia (1.9%) and New Brunswick (1.7%). Canada’s population grew by 457,888 (1.2%) over the period.
For more information contact Alex Munger
Ontario Demographic Factsheet
Region | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Canada | 32,571 | 34,339 | 36,109 | 37,065 | 37,601 | 38,037 | 38,246 |
Ontario | 12,662 | 13,261 | 13,875 | 14,309 | 14,545 | 14,746 | 14,826 |
Ontario as % of Canada | 38.9 | 38.6 | 38.4 | 38.6 | 38.7 | 38.8 | 38.7 |
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Canada | 40,315 | 42,271 | 44,115 | 45,844 | 47,479 |
Ontario | 16,076 | 17,091 | 18,083 | 19,058 | 20,016 |
Ontario as % of Canada | 39.9 | 40.4 | 41.0 | 41.6 | 42.2 |
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Age group | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
5–14 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 10.5 |
15–24 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 12.5 |
25–44 | 29.4 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 26.7 | 27.0 | 27.4 | 27.6 |
45–64 | 26.0 | 28.3 | 28.1 | 27.5 | 27.1 | 26.7 | 26.5 |
65–74 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 10.3 |
75+ | 6.2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 7.8 |
Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
5–14 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 |
15–24 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.5 |
25–44 | 28.4 | 28.3 | 27.8 | 26.9 | 26.3 |
45–64 | 24.1 | 22.7 | 22.8 | 23.6 | 24.2 |
65–74 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 9.0 |
75+ | 8.9 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 13.3 |
Age group | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–14 | 17.8 | 16.6 | 16.1 | 15.8 | 15.6 | 15.5 | 15.3 |
15–64 | 69.2 | 69.1 | 67.6 | 67.3 | 67.1 | 66.9 | 66.6 |
65+ | 13.0 | 14.2 | 16.3 | 16.9 | 17.3 | 17.6 | 18.1 |
Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–14 | 14.9 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 |
15–64 | 65.4 | 63.7 | 62.9 | 62.8 | 62.9 |
65+ | 19.8 | 21.6 | 22.3 | 22.4 | 22.2 |
Other characteristic | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total dependency ratio (%) | 60.6 | 60.4 | 62.6 | 63.2 | 63.4 | 63.6 | 63.9 |
Median age (years) | 38.4 | 39.8 | 40.7 | 40.6 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.7 |
Age span of baby boom (years) | 41-60 | 46-65 | 51-70 | 53-72 | 54-73 | 55-74 | 56-75 |
Total fertility rate | 1.55 | 1.56 | 1.51 | 1.45 | 1.42 | n.a. | n.a. |
Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 83.2 | 84.1 | 84.4 | 84.4 | 84.7 | 84.4 | n.a. |
Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 78.7 | 79.9 | 80.4 | 80.2 | 80.4 | 79.9 | n.a. |
Families (000s) | 3,539 | 3,722 | 3,832 | 3,953 | 4,010 | 4,055 | 4,111 |
Households (000s) | 4,555 | 4,888 | 5,169 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 5,491 |
Other characteristic | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total dependency ratio (%) | 67.9 | 72.3 | 74.0 | 74.5 | 74.3 |
Median age (years) | 40.4 | 40.9 | 41.5 | 42.0 | 42.3 |
Age span of baby boom (years) | 61-80 | 66-85 | 71-90 | 76-95 | 81-100 |
Total fertility rate | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.42 | 1.46 | 1.50 |
Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 85.2 | 85.9 | 86.6 | 87.3 | 87.9 |
Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 81.2 | 82.2 | 83.1 | 84.0 | 84.8 |
Families (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Households (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Region | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Greater Toronto Area | 45.8 | 47.2 | 47.8 | 47.8 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 47.9 |
Central | 22.0 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.8 |
Eastern | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 |
Southwestern | 12.6 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 |
Northeastern | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
Northwestern | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Greater Toronto Area | 48.5 | 48.9 | 49.3 | 49.6 | 49.8 |
Central | 21.8 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.1 |
Eastern | 13.0 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 12.8 |
Southwestern | 11.6 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 11.1 |
Northeastern | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
Northwestern | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Period | Population, beginning of period | Total change | Births | Deaths | Natural increase |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Five-Year: 2001–06 | 11,898 | 764 | 658 | 418 | 240 |
Five-Year: 2006–11 | 12,662 | 600 | 697 | 441 | 256 |
Five-Year: 2011–16 | 13,261 | 614 | 702 | 471 | 231 |
Annual: 2016–17 | 13,875 | 195 | 141 | 102 | 39 |
Annual: 2017–18 | 14,070 | 239 | 141 | 107 | 34 |
Annual: 2018–19 | 14,309 | 236 | 140 | 106 | 34 |
Annual: 2019–20 | 14,545 | 201 | 140 | 112 | 28 |
Annual: 2020–21 | 14,746 | 81 | 137 | 117 | 20 |
Period | Immigrants | Net emigrants | Net NPRs | Net |
---|---|---|---|---|
Five-Year: 2001–06 | 653 | 125 | 44 | 573 |
Five-Year: 2006–11 | 558 | 104 | 57 | 511 |
Five-Year: 2011–16 | 519 | 123 | 85 | 481 |
Annual: 2016–17 | 98 | 19 | 63 | 142 |
Annual: 2017–18 | 132 | 16 | 78 | 194 |
Annual: 2018–19 | 139 | 16 | 72 | 195 |
Annual: 2019–20 | 127 | −3 | 40 | 170 |
Annual: 2020–21 | 108 | 12 | −18 | 78 |
Period | In | Out | Net |
---|---|---|---|
Five-Year: 2001–06 | 307 | 336 | −30 |
Five-Year: 2006–11 | 296 | 355 | −59 |
Five-Year: 2011–16 | 307 | 346 | −39 |
Annual: 2016–17 | 72 | 58 | 13 |
Annual: 2017–18 | 70 | 60 | 10 |
Annual: 2018–19 | 67 | 60 | 7 |
Annual: 2019–20 | 75 | 72 | 3 |
Annual: 2020–21 | 65 | 83 | −17 |
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.
March 17, 2022
Office of Economic Policy
Accessible image description
This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2016-2020). In the fourth quarter of 2021, deaths, immigration and emigration were higher than the average of fourth quarters of the previous five years, while births, the net change in the number of non-permanent residents and net interprovincial migration were lower.
Footnotes
- footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada's population estimates based on the 2016 Census.
- footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2021), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
- footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
- footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
- footnote[5] Back to paragraph Households are Census data.
- footnote[6] Back to paragraph In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.