Ontario Demographic Quarterly: highlights of fourth quarter
Learn about Ontario’s economic performance and outlook for the fourth quarter of 2022.
Population growth
Ontario’s population reached 15,386,407 on January 1, 2023, with a increase of 123,747 people during the fourth quarter of 2022. This compares to an increase of 39,305 people recorded in the same quarter of 2021.
Components of demographic change | Number of people (in thousands) |
---|---|
Population, October 1, 2022 | 15,262.7 |
Plus Births | 35.6 |
Minus Deaths | 30.5 |
Plus Immigrants | 33.3 |
Minus Emigrants* | 5.1 |
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents | 97.7 |
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals | 13.8 |
Minus Interprovincial Departures | 21.1 |
Population, January 1, 2023 | 15,386.4 |
*Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Births and deaths
There were 35,644 births during the fourth quarter of 2022, an increase of 4.1% from the same quarter of 2021. The number of deaths decreased by 1.2% to reach 30,506.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 5,138 in the quarter, up from 3,357 in the same quarter of 2021.
International migration
Immigration to Ontario was 33,348 in the fourth quarter, down significantly from 66,946 in the same quarter of 2021. Ontario received 40.1% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, a decrease from 48.4% in the same quarter of 2021. During calendar year 2022, Ontario received 184,771 immigrants, down from 199,291 in 2021.
There were 5,143 emigrants in the fourth quarter, compared to 7,316 during the same quarter of 2021. Ontario accounted for 43.6% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.
The number of non‑permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. international students, foreign workers, and refugee claimants) increased by 97,715 to about 891,000 by January 1, 2023.
Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 125,920 in the fourth quarter, up from a net gain of 42,863 in the same quarter of 2021.
Components of population growth, Q4 2022 and average for 2017-2021

* Includes emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Interprovincial migration
In the fourth quarter of 2022, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 7,311 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 6,915 people in the same quarter of 2021. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with Quebec (+704), Manitoba (+577) and Saskatchewan (+248), but net losses with all other provinces. The largest net losses were to Alberta (-4,831), Nova Scotia (-1,227) and New Brunswick (-1,025). During calendar year 2022, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 52,017, compared to a net loss of 32,105 in 2021.
Year-over-year growth
In calendar year 2022, Ontario’s population grew by 445,495 or 3.0%, much faster than in 2021 (200,810 or 1.4%). Among the provinces, Ontario had the fifth fastest population growth rate after Prince Edward Island (4.3%), Alberta (3.7%), Nova Scotia (3.5%), and New Brunswick (3.3%). Canada’s population grew by 1,050,110 (2.7%) in 2022.
Ontario Demographic Factsheet
Region | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Canada | 32,571 | 34,339 | 36,109 | 37,601 | 38,007 | 38,226 | 38,930 |
Ontario | 12,662 | 13,261 | 13,875 | 14,545 | 14,726 | 14,809 | 15,109 |
Ontario as % of Canada | 38.9 | 38.6 | 38.4 | 38.7 | 38.7 | 38.7 | 38.8 |
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2.0 |
Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Canada | 40,965 | 43,276 | 45,282 | 47,070 | 48,770 |
Ontario | 16,043 | 17,121 | 18,209 | 19,308 | 20,418 |
Ontario as % of Canada | 39.2 | 39.6 | 40.2 | 41.0 | 41.9 |
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Age group | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 |
5–14 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.4 |
15–24 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 12.6 |
25–44 | 29.4 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 27.0 | 27.3 | 27.6 | 28.0 |
45–64 | 26.0 | 28.3 | 28.1 | 27.1 | 26.7 | 26.5 | 25.9 |
65–74 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 10.3 |
75+ | 6.2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 8.0 |
Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–4 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
5–14 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 9.9 |
15–24 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 12.1 |
25–44 | 28.8 | 28.9 | 28.6 | 27.8 | 27.0 |
45–64 | 24.1 | 22.6 | 22.7 | 23.5 | 24.2 |
65–74 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 8.8 |
75+ | 8.9 | 10.2 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 13.0 |
Age group | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–14 | 17.8 | 16.6 | 16.1 | 15.6 | 15.5 | 15.3 | 15.1 |
15–64 | 69.2 | 69.1 | 67.6 | 67.1 | 66.9 | 66.5 | 66.5 |
65+ | 13.0 | 14.2 | 16.3 | 17.3 | 17.7 | 18.1 | 18.4 |
Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–14 | 14.7 | 14.6 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 14.9 |
15–64 | 65.5 | 64.0 | 63.3 | 63.2 | 63.3 |
65+ | 19.8 | 21.5 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 21.8 |
Other characteristic | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total dependency ratio (%) | 60.6 | 60.4 | 62.6 | 63.4 | 63.7 | 64.0 | 64.3 |
Median age (years) | 38.4 | 39.8 | 40.7 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.7 | 40.4 |
Age span of baby boom (years) | 41-60 | 46-65 | 51-70 | 54-73 | 55-74 | 56-75 | 57-76 |
Total fertility rate | 1.55 | 1.56 | 1.51 | 1.42 | 1.34 | 1.37 | n.a. |
Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 82.9 | 83.7 | 84.0 | 84.4 | 84.0 | n.a. | n.a. |
Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 78.3 | 79.4 | 79.9 | 80.2 | 79.5 | n.a. | n.a. |
Families (000s) | 3,539 | 3,722 | 3,832 | 4,010 | 4,039 | 4,105 | 4,170 |
Households (000s) | 4,555 | 4,888 | 5,169 | n.a. | n.a. | 5,491 | n.a. |
Other characteristic | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total dependency ratio (%) | 66.8 | 70.6 | 72.0 | 72.5 | 72.3 |
Median age (years) | 40.4 | 40.8 | 41.3 | 41.8 | 42.0 |
Age span of baby boom (years) | 61-80 | 66-85 | 71-90 | 76-95 | 81-100 |
Total fertility rate | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.41 | 1.46 | 1.50 |
Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 85.2 | 85.9 | 86.6 | 87.3 | 87.9 |
Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 80.9 | 81.9 | 82.9 | 83.9 | 84.8 |
Families (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Households (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Region | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Greater Toronto Area | 45.8 | 47.2 | 47.8 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 47.8 | 47.8 |
Central | 22.0 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.9 | 21.9 |
Eastern | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 |
Southwestern | 12.6 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 |
Northeastern | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
Northwestern | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Greater Toronto Area | 48.5 | 48.7 | 48.9 | 49.1 | 49.1 |
Central | 21.9 | 22.0 | 22.2 | 22.3 | 22.4 |
Eastern | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
Southwestern | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 11.3 |
Northeastern | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
Northwestern | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Period | Population, beginning of period | Total change | Births | Deaths | Natural increase |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Five-Year: 2001–06 | 11,898 | 764 | 658 | 418 | 240 |
Five-Year: 2006–11 | 12,662 | 600 | 697 | 441 | 256 |
Five-Year: 2011–16 | 13,261 | 614 | 702 | 471 | 231 |
Annual: 2016–17 | 13,875 | 195 | 141 | 102 | 39 |
Annual: 2017–18 | 14,070 | 239 | 141 | 107 | 34 |
Annual: 2018–19 | 14,309 | 236 | 140 | 106 | 34 |
Annual: 2019–20 | 14,545 | 181 | 140 | 112 | 29 |
Annual: 2020–21 | 14,726 | 83 | 137 | 116 | 21 |
Annual: 2021–22 | 14,809 | 300 | 142 | 121 | 20 |
Period | Immigrants | Net emigrants | Net NPRs | Net |
---|---|---|---|---|
Five-Year: 2001–06 | 653 | 125 | 44 | 573 |
Five-Year: 2006–11 | 558 | 104 | 57 | 511 |
Five-Year: 2011–16 | 519 | 123 | 85 | 481 |
Annual: 2016–17 | 98 | 19 | 63 | 142 |
Annual: 2017–18 | 132 | 16 | 78 | 194 |
Annual: 2018–19 | 139 | 16 | 72 | 195 |
Annual: 2019–20 | 127 | 15 | 37 | 150 |
Annual: 2020–21 | 108 | 8 | −19 | 81 |
Annual: 2021–22 | 227 | 18 | 117 | 327 |
Period | In | Out | Net |
---|---|---|---|
Five-Year: 2001–06 | 307 | 336 | −30 |
Five-Year: 2006–11 | 296 | 355 | −59 |
Five-Year: 2011–16 | 307 | 346 | −39 |
Annual: 2016–17 | 72 | 58 | 13 |
Annual: 2017–18 | 70 | 60 | 10 |
Annual: 2018–19 | 67 | 60 | 7 |
Annual: 2019–20 | 82 | 79 | 3 |
Annual: 2020–21 | 62 | 81 | −18 |
Annual: 2021–22 | 78 | 125 | −47 |
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.
March 22, 2023
Office of Economic Policy
For more information contact Alex Munger
Other Demographics Reports
- Ontario demographics
- Highlights of third quarter
- Highlights of second quarter
- Highlights of first quarter
Accessible description of chart
Components of population growth, Q4 2022 and average for 2017-2021
This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2017-2021). In the fourth quarter of 2022, the net change in the number of non-permanent residents was higher than the average of the fourth quarters of the previous five years, while net interprovincial migration was lower. All other components were generally the same as their five year average.
Footnotes
- footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada's population estimates based on the 2016 Census.
- footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Summer 2022), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
- footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
- footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
- footnote[5] Back to paragraph Households are Census data.
- footnote[6] Back to paragraph In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.