Ontario Demographic Quarterly: highlights of third quarter

Learn about Ontario’s economic performance and outlook for the third quarter of 2022.

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Population growth

Ontario’s population reached 15,262,660 on October 1, 2022, with a increase of 153,244 people during the third quarter of 2022. This compares to an increase of 92,350 people recorded in the same quarter of 2021.

Population growth, Ontario, Q3 2022
Components of demographic change	Number of people (in thousands)
Population, July 1, 2022	15,109.4
Plus Births	39.0
Minus Deaths	28.3
Plus Immigrants	50.1
Minus Emigrants^*	2.5
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents	106.5
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals	22.1
Minus Interprovincial Departures	33.7
Population, October 1, 2022	15,262.7

^*Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.

Births and deaths

There were 39,027 births during the third quarter of 2022, an increase of 3.4% from the same quarter of 2021. The number of deaths also increased by 1.5% to reach 28,273.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 10,754 in the quarter, up from 9,900 in the same quarter of 2021.

International migration

Immigration to Ontario was 50,124 in the third quarter, down from 58,990 in the same quarter of 2021. Ontario received 41.0% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, a decrease from 48.0% in the same quarter of 2021. During the past year to September 30, Ontario received 218,369 immigrants, up sharply from 149,660 in the previous year.

There were 2,512 emigrants in the third quarter, compared to 1,759 during the same quarter of 2021. Ontario accounted for 37.6% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non‑permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. international students, foreign workers, and refugee claimants) increased by 106,459 to about 803,000 by October 1.

Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 154,071 in the third quarter, up from a net gain of 89,622 in the same quarter of 2021.

Components of population growth, Q3 2022 and average for 2017-2021

Interprovincial migration

In the third quarter of 2022, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 11,581 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 7,172 people in the same quarter of 2021. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with Quebec (+1,432), Manitoba (+506) and Saskatchewan (+423), but net losses with all other provinces. The largest net losses were to Alberta (−8,645), Nova Scotia (−2,543) and New Brunswick (−1,724). During the past 12 months to September 30, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 51,621, compared to a net loss of 25,575 in the previous year.

Year-over-year growth

In the 12 months to September 30, Ontario’s population grew by 361,053 or 2.4%, much faster than in the previous year (179,755 or 1.2%). Among the provinces, Ontario had the sixth fastest population growth rate after Prince Edward Island (3.8%), Nova Scotia (3.3%), New Brunswick (3.1%), Alberta (3.0%) and British Columbia (2.5%). Canada’s population grew by 865,882 (2.3%) over the period.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

Population (000s) - Estimates^{footnote 1[1]}
Region	2006	2011	2016	2019	2020	2021	2022
Canada	32,571	34,339	36,109	37,601	38,007	38,226	38,930
Ontario	12,662	13,261	13,875	14,545	14,726	14,809	15,109
Ontario as % of Canada	38.9	38.6	38.4	38.7	38.7	38.7	38.8
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	1.3	0.9	0.9	1.6	1.2	0.6	2.0

Population (000s) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Canada	40,965	43,276	45,282	47,070	48,770
Ontario	16,043	17,121	18,209	19,308	20,418
Ontario as % of Canada	39.2	39.6	40.2	41.0	41.9
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	1.5	1.3	1.2	1.2	1.1

Age distribution (%) - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Age group	2006	2011	2016	2019	2020	2021	2022
0–4	5.4	5.4	5.2	5.0	4.9	4.8	4.7
5–14	12.3	11.2	11.0	10.7	10.6	10.5	10.4
15–24	13.8	13.7	12.9	13.0	12.8	12.4	12.6
25–44	29.4	27.1	26.5	27.0	27.3	27.6	28.0
45–64	26.0	28.3	28.1	27.1	26.7	26.5	25.9
65–74	6.9	7.6	9.2	9.8	10.0	10.3	10.3
75+	6.2	6.6	7.1	7.5	7.6	7.8	8.0

Age distribution (%) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
0–4	4.8	4.9	4.9	4.9	5.0
5–14	9.9	9.7	9.8	9.9	9.9
15–24	12.7	12.4	12.0	11.9	12.1
25–44	28.8	28.9	28.6	27.8	27.0
45–64	24.1	22.6	22.7	23.5	24.2
65–74	10.8	11.3	10.4	9.2	8.8
75+	8.9	10.2	11.6	12.8	13.0

Selected age groups (%) - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Age group	2006	2011	2016	2019	2020	2021	2022
0–14	17.8	16.6	16.1	15.6	15.5	15.3	15.1
15–64	69.2	69.1	67.6	67.1	66.9	66.5	66.5
65+	13.0	14.2	16.3	17.3	17.7	18.1	18.4

Selected age groups (%) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
0–14	14.7	14.6	14.7	14.8	14.9
15–64	65.5	64.0	63.3	63.2	63.3
65+	19.8	21.5	22.0	22.0	21.8

Other characteristics - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Other characteristic	2006	2011	2016	2019	2020	2021	2022
Total dependency ratio (%)^{footnote 3[3]}	60.6	60.4	62.6	63.4	63.7	64.0	64.3
Median age (years)	38.4	39.8	40.7	40.5	40.5	40.7	40.4
Age span of baby boom (years)	41-60	46-65	51-70	54-73	55-74	56-75	57-76
Total fertility rate^{footnote 4[4]}	1.55	1.56	1.51	1.42	1.34	1.37	n.a.
Female life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	82.9	83.7	84.0	84.4	84.0	n.a.	n.a.
Male life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	78.3	79.4	79.9	80.2	79.5	n.a.	n.a.
Families (000s)	3,539	3,722	3,832	4,010	4,039	4,105	4,170
Households (000s)^{footnote 5[5]}	4,555	4,888	5,169	n.a.	n.a.	5,491	n.a.

Other characteristics - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Other characteristic	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Total dependency ratio (%)^{footnote 3[3]}	66.8	70.6	72.0	72.5	72.3
Median age (years)	40.4	40.8	41.3	41.8	42.0
Age span of baby boom (years)	61-80	66-85	71-90	76-95	81-100
Total fertility rate^{footnote 4[4]}	1.37	1.38	1.41	1.46	1.50
Female life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	85.2	85.9	86.6	87.3	87.9
Male life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	80.9	81.9	82.9	83.9	84.8
Families (000s)	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Households (000s)^{footnote 5[5]}	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.

Regional distribution (%) - Estimates ^{footnote 1[1]}
Region	2006	2011	2016	2019	2020	2021	2022
Greater Toronto Area	45.8	47.2	47.8	48.0	48.0	47.9	n.a.
Central	22.0	21.6	21.6	21.7	21.7	21.8	n.a.
Eastern	13.2	13.2	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1	n.a.
Southwestern	12.6	12.0	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	n.a.
Northeastern	4.5	4.3	4.1	3.9	3.9	3.8	n.a.
Northwestern	1.9	1.8	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.6	n.a.

Regional distribution (%) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Greater Toronto Area	48.5	48.7	48.9	49.1	49.1
Central	21.9	22.0	22.2	22.3	22.4
Eastern	13.0	13.0	13.0	13.0	13.0
Southwestern	11.5	11.4	11.4	11.3	11.3
Northeastern	3.6	3.4	3.2	3.1	3.0
Northwestern	1.5	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.2

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 6[6]} — year beginning July 1
Period	Population, beginning of period	Total change	Births	Deaths	Natural increase
Five-Year: 2001–06	11,898	764	658	418	240
Five-Year: 2006–11	12,662	600	697	441	256
Five-Year: 2011–16	13,261	614	702	471	231
Annual: 2016–17	13,875	195	141	102	39
Annual: 2017–18	14,070	239	141	107	34
Annual: 2018–19	14,309	236	140	106	34
Annual: 2019–20	14,545	181	140	112	29
Annual: 2020–21	14,726	83	137	116	21
Annual: 2021–22	14,809	300	142	121	20

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 6[6]} — year beginning July 1
International migration
Period	Immigrants	Net emigrants	Net NPRs	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	653	125	44	573
Five-Year: 2006–11	558	104	57	511
Five-Year: 2011–16	519	123	85	481
Annual: 2016–17	98	19	63	142
Annual: 2017–18	132	16	78	194
Annual: 2018–19	139	16	72	195
Annual: 2019–20	127	15	37	150
Annual: 2020–21	108	8	−19	81
Annual: 2021–22	227	18	117	327

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 6[6]} — year beginning July 1
Interprovincial migration
Period	In	Out	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	307	336	−30
Five-Year: 2006–11	296	355	−59
Five-Year: 2011–16	307	346	−39
Annual: 2016–17	72	58	13
Annual: 2017–18	70	60	10
Annual: 2018–19	67	60	7
Annual: 2019–20	82	79	3
Annual: 2020–21	62	81	−18
Annual: 2021–22	78	125	−47

Note: All population figures are for July 1^st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

December 21, 2022
Office of Economic Policy

For more information contact Alex Munger 437-242-7697.

Accessible description of chart

Components of population growth, Q3 2022 and average for 2017-2021

This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the third quarter of 2022 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2017-2021). In the third quarter of 2022, births, deaths, immigration, emigration and the net change in the number of non-permanent residents were higher than the average of third quarters of the previous five years, while net interprovincial migration was lower.

Return to chart

Updated: December 22, 2022

Published: December 29, 2020

Footnotes

footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada's population estimates based on the 2016 Census.
footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Summer 2022), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
footnote[5] Back to paragraph Households are Census data.
footnote[6] Back to paragraph In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.