Population growth

Ontario’s population reached 14,915,270 on October 1, 2021, with a increase of 88,994 people during the third quarter of 2021. This compares to an unusual decrease of 5,008 people recorded in the same quarter of 2020.

Population growth, Ontario, Q3 2021
Thousands
Population, July 1, 2021 14,826.3
Plus Births 36.4
Minus Deaths 25.4
Plus Immigrants 58.5
Minus Emigrants * 8.2
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents 34.5
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals 21.7
Minus Interprovincial Departures 28.6
Population, October 1, 2021 14,915.3

*Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.

Births and deaths

There were 36,439 births during the third quarter of 2021, an increase of 1.0% from the same quarter of 2020. The number of deaths decreased by 5.2% to reach 25,440.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 10,999 in the quarter, up from 9,264 in the same quarter of 2020.

International migration

Immigration to Ontario was 58,548 in the quarter, up from 17,259 in the same quarter of 2020. Ontario received 47.7% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, an increase from 43.0% in the same quarter of 2020. Over the 12 months to September 30, Ontario received 149,154 immigrants, up sharply from 98,429 during the previous year.

There were 8,158 emigrants in the third quarter, compared to 394 during the same quarter of 2020. Ontario accounted for 44.6% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non‑permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers and refugee claimants) increased by 34,497 to about 619,000 in the quarter.

Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 84,887 in the third quarter, up from an unusual net loss of 15,003 in the same quarter of 2020.

Components of population growth, Q3 2021 and average for 2016-2020

components of population growth in the third quarter of 2021 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2016-2020)

* Includes emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.

Accessible description of chart

Interprovincial migration

In the third quarter of 2021, Ontario had a net outflow of 6,892 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net inflow of 731 people in the same quarter of 2020. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with 4 of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net gains from Saskatchewan (890) and Manitoba (855). The largest net losses were to Alberta (-2,820) and Nova Scotia (-2,150). Over the 12 months to September 30, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration outflow was 24,708, compared to a net outflow of 875 during the previous year.

Year-over-year growth

Over the 12 months to September 30, Ontario’s population grew by 174,566 or 1.2%, higher than growth of 102,457 (0.7%) during the previous year. Among the provinces, Ontario had the fifth fastest population growth rate after Prince Edward Island (2.8%), British Columbia (1.8%), Nova Scotia (1.8%) and New Brunswick (1.4%). Canada’s population grew by 403,433 (1.1%) over the period.

For more information contact Alex Munger 437-242-7697.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

Population (000s) - Estimates footnote 1
Region 2006 2011 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021
Canada 32,571 34,339 36,109 37,065 37,601 38,037 38,246
Ontario 12,662 13,261 13,875 14,309 14,545 14,746 14,826
Ontario as % of Canada 38.9 38.6 38.4 38.6 38.7 38.8 38.7
Ontario average annual growth rate
(Over previous year shown)
1.3 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.4 0.5
Population (000s) - MOF Projections footnote 2
Region 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Canada 40,315 42,271 44,115 45,844 47,479
Ontario 16,076 17,091 18,083 19,058 20,016
Ontario as % of Canada 39.9 40.4 41.0 41.6 42.2
Ontario average annual growth rate
(Over previous year shown)
1.6 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0
Age distribution (%) - Estimates footnote 1
Age group 2006 2011 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021
0–4 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8
5–14 12.3 11.2 11.0 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.5
15–24 13.8 13.7 12.9 13.0 13.0 12.8 12.5
25–44 29.4 27.1 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.4 27.6
45–64 26.0 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.5
65–74 6.9 7.6 9.2 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.3
75+ 6.2 6.6 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.8
Age distribution (%) - MOF Projections footnote 2
Age group 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
0–4 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9
5–14 10.0 9.9 10.0 9.9 9.9
15–24 12.9 12.7 12.4 12.4 12.5
25–44 28.4 28.3 27.8 26.9 26.3
45–64 24.1 22.7 22.8 23.6 24.2
65–74 10.9 11.3 10.5 9.4 9.0
75+ 8.9 10.2 11.7 13.0 13.3
Selected age groups (%) - Estimates footnote 1
Age group 2006 2011 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021
0–14 17.8 16.6 16.1 15.8 15.6 15.5 15.3
15–64 69.2 69.1 67.6 67.3 67.1 66.9 66.6
65+ 13.0 14.2 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.1
Selected age groups (%) - MOF Projections footnote 2
Age group 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
0–14 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8
15–64 65.4 63.7 62.9 62.8 62.9
65+ 19.8 21.6 22.3 22.4 22.2
Other characteristics - Estimates footnote 1
Other characteristic 2006 2011 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021
Total dependency ratio (%) footnote 3 60.6 60.4 62.6 63.2 63.4 63.6 63.9
Median age (years) 38.4 39.8 40.7 40.6 40.5 40.5 40.7
Age span of baby boom (years) 41-60 46-65 51-70 53-72 54-73 55-74 56-75
Total fertility rate footnote 4 1.55 1.56 1.51 1.45 1.42 n.a.  n.a.
Female life expectancy at birth (years) footnote 4 83.1 84.0 84.4 84.5 n.a. n.a.  n.a.
Male life expectancy at birth (years) footnote 4 78.8 79.8 80.3 80.3 n.a. n.a.  n.a.
Families (000s) 3,539 3,722 3,832 3,953 4,010 4,055 4,111
Households (000s) footnote 5 4,555 4,888 5,169 n.a. n.a. n.a.  n.a.
Other characteristics - MOF Projections footnote 2
Other characteristic 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Total dependency ratio (%) footnote 3 67.9 72.3 74.0 74.5 74.3
Median age (years) 40.4 40.9 41.5 42.0 42.3
Age span of baby boom (years) 61-80 66-85 71-90 76-95 81-100
Total fertility rate footnote 4 1.39 1.39 1.42 1.46 1.50
Female life expectancy at birth (years) footnote 4 85.2 85.9 86.6 87.3 87.9
Male life expectancy at birth (years) footnote 4 81.2 82.2 83.1 84.0 84.8
Families (000s)  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
Households (000s) footnote 5  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
Regional distribution (%) - Estimates footnote 1
Region 2006 2011 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021
Greater Toronto Area 45.8 47.2 47.8 47.8 48.0 48.0  n.a.
Central 22.0 21.6 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.7  n.a.
Eastern 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1  n.a.
Southwestern 12.6 12.0 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7  n.a.
Northeastern 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9  n.a.
Northwestern 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6  n.a.
Regional distribution (%) - MOF Projections footnote 2
Region 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Greater Toronto Area 48.5 48.9 49.3 49.6 49.8
Central 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.1
Eastern 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.8
Southwestern 11.6 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1
Northeastern 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0
Northwestern 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2
Components of change (000s) footnote 6  — year beginning July 1
Period Population,
beginning of period
Total change Births Deaths Natural increase
Five-Year: 2001–06 11,898 764 658 418 240
Five-Year: 2006–11 12,662 600 697 441 256
Five-Year: 2011–16 13,261 614 702 471 231
Annual: 2016–17 13,875 195 141 102 39
Annual: 2017–18 14,070 239 141 107 34
Annual: 2018–19 14,309 236 140 106 34
Annual: 2019–20 14,545 201 140 112 28
Annual: 2020–21 14,746 81 137 117 20
Components of change (000s) footnote 6  — year beginning July 1
International migration
Period Immigrants Net emigrants Net NPRs Net
Five-Year: 2001–06 653 125 44 573
Five-Year: 2006–11 558 104 57 511
Five-Year: 2011–16 519 123 85 481
Annual: 2016–17 98 19 63 142
Annual: 2017–18 132 16 78 194
Annual: 2018–19 139 16 72 195
Annual: 2019–20 127 −3 40 170
Annual: 2020–21 108 12 −18 78
Components of change (000s) footnote 6  — year beginning July 1
Interprovincial migration
Period In Out Net
Five-Year: 2001–06 307 336 −30
Five-Year: 2006–11 296 355 −59
Five-Year: 2011–16 307 346 −39
Annual: 2016–17 72 58 13
Annual: 2017–18 70 60 10
Annual: 2018–19 67 60 7
Annual: 2019–20 75 72 3
Annual: 2020–21 65 83 −17

Note: All population figures are for July 1st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

December 16, 2021
Office of Economic Policy


Accessible Image Description:

This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the third quarter of 2021 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2016-2020). In the third quarter of 2021, deaths, immigration, emigration and the net change in the number of non-permanent residents were higher than the average of third quarters of the previous five years, while births and net interprovincial migration were lower.

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