Ontario Demographic Quarterly: highlights of third quarter
Learn about Ontario’s economic performance and outlook for the third quarter of 2022.
Population growth
Ontario’s population reached 15,262,660 on October 1, 2022, with a increase of 153,244 people during the third quarter of 2022. This compares to an increase of 92,350 people recorded in the same quarter of 2021.
Components of demographic change | Number of people (in thousands) |
---|---|
Population, July 1, 2022 | 15,109.4 |
Plus Births | 39.0 |
Minus Deaths | 28.3 |
Plus Immigrants | 50.1 |
Minus Emigrants* | 2.5 |
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents | 106.5 |
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals | 22.1 |
Minus Interprovincial Departures | 33.7 |
Population, October 1, 2022 | 15,262.7 |
*Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Births and deaths
There were 39,027 births during the third quarter of 2022, an increase of 3.4% from the same quarter of 2021. The number of deaths also increased by 1.5% to reach 28,273.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 10,754 in the quarter, up from 9,900 in the same quarter of 2021.
International migration
Immigration to Ontario was 50,124 in the third quarter, down from 58,990 in the same quarter of 2021. Ontario received 41.0% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, a decrease from 48.0% in the same quarter of 2021. During the past year to September 30, Ontario received 218,369 immigrants, up sharply from 149,660 in the previous year.
There were 2,512 emigrants in the third quarter, compared to 1,759 during the same quarter of 2021. Ontario accounted for 37.6% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.
The number of non‑permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. international students, foreign workers, and refugee claimants) increased by 106,459 to about 803,000 by October 1.
Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 154,071 in the third quarter, up from a net gain of 89,622 in the same quarter of 2021.
Components of population growth, Q3 2022 and average for 2017-2021

* Includes emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Interprovincial migration
In the third quarter of 2022, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 11,581 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 7,172 people in the same quarter of 2021. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with Quebec (+1,432), Manitoba (+506) and Saskatchewan (+423), but net losses with all other provinces. The largest net losses were to Alberta (−8,645), Nova Scotia (−2,543) and New Brunswick (−1,724). During the past 12 months to September 30, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 51,621, compared to a net loss of 25,575 in the previous year.
Year-over-year growth
In the 12 months to September 30, Ontario’s population grew by 361,053 or 2.4%, much faster than in the previous year (179,755 or 1.2%). Among the provinces, Ontario had the sixth fastest population growth rate after Prince Edward Island (3.8%), Nova Scotia (3.3%), New Brunswick (3.1%), Alberta (3.0%) and British Columbia (2.5%). Canada’s population grew by 865,882 (2.3%) over the period.
Ontario Demographic Factsheet
Region | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Canada | 32,571 | 34,339 | 36,109 | 37,601 | 38,007 | 38,226 | 38,930 |
Ontario | 12,662 | 13,261 | 13,875 | 14,545 | 14,726 | 14,809 | 15,109 |
Ontario as % of Canada | 38.9 | 38.6 | 38.4 | 38.7 | 38.7 | 38.7 | 38.8 |
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2.0 |
Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Canada | 40,965 | 43,276 | 45,282 | 47,070 | 48,770 |
Ontario | 16,043 | 17,121 | 18,209 | 19,308 | 20,418 |
Ontario as % of Canada | 39.2 | 39.6 | 40.2 | 41.0 | 41.9 |
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Age group | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 |
5–14 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.4 |
15–24 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 12.6 |
25–44 | 29.4 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 27.0 | 27.3 | 27.6 | 28.0 |
45–64 | 26.0 | 28.3 | 28.1 | 27.1 | 26.7 | 26.5 | 25.9 |
65–74 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 10.3 |
75+ | 6.2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 8.0 |
Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–4 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
5–14 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 9.9 |
15–24 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 12.1 |
25–44 | 28.8 | 28.9 | 28.6 | 27.8 | 27.0 |
45–64 | 24.1 | 22.6 | 22.7 | 23.5 | 24.2 |
65–74 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 8.8 |
75+ | 8.9 | 10.2 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 13.0 |
Age group | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–14 | 17.8 | 16.6 | 16.1 | 15.6 | 15.5 | 15.3 | 15.1 |
15–64 | 69.2 | 69.1 | 67.6 | 67.1 | 66.9 | 66.5 | 66.5 |
65+ | 13.0 | 14.2 | 16.3 | 17.3 | 17.7 | 18.1 | 18.4 |
Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–14 | 14.7 | 14.6 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 14.9 |
15–64 | 65.5 | 64.0 | 63.3 | 63.2 | 63.3 |
65+ | 19.8 | 21.5 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 21.8 |
Other characteristic | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total dependency ratio (%) | 60.6 | 60.4 | 62.6 | 63.4 | 63.7 | 64.0 | 64.3 |
Median age (years) | 38.4 | 39.8 | 40.7 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.7 | 40.4 |
Age span of baby boom (years) | 41-60 | 46-65 | 51-70 | 54-73 | 55-74 | 56-75 | 57-76 |
Total fertility rate | 1.55 | 1.56 | 1.51 | 1.42 | 1.34 | 1.37 | n.a. |
Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 82.9 | 83.7 | 84.0 | 84.4 | 84.0 | n.a. | n.a. |
Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 78.3 | 79.4 | 79.9 | 80.2 | 79.5 | n.a. | n.a. |
Families (000s) | 3,539 | 3,722 | 3,832 | 4,010 | 4,039 | 4,105 | 4,170 |
Households (000s) | 4,555 | 4,888 | 5,169 | n.a. | n.a. | 5,491 | n.a. |
Other characteristic | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total dependency ratio (%) | 66.8 | 70.6 | 72.0 | 72.5 | 72.3 |
Median age (years) | 40.4 | 40.8 | 41.3 | 41.8 | 42.0 |
Age span of baby boom (years) | 61-80 | 66-85 | 71-90 | 76-95 | 81-100 |
Total fertility rate | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.41 | 1.46 | 1.50 |
Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 85.2 | 85.9 | 86.6 | 87.3 | 87.9 |
Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 80.9 | 81.9 | 82.9 | 83.9 | 84.8 |
Families (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Households (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Region | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Greater Toronto Area | 45.8 | 47.2 | 47.8 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 47.9 | n.a. |
Central | 22.0 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.8 | n.a. |
Eastern | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | n.a. |
Southwestern | 12.6 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | n.a. |
Northeastern | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | n.a. |
Northwestern | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | n.a. |
Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Greater Toronto Area | 48.5 | 48.7 | 48.9 | 49.1 | 49.1 |
Central | 21.9 | 22.0 | 22.2 | 22.3 | 22.4 |
Eastern | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
Southwestern | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 11.3 |
Northeastern | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
Northwestern | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Period | Population, beginning of period | Total change | Births | Deaths | Natural increase |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Five-Year: 2001–06 | 11,898 | 764 | 658 | 418 | 240 |
Five-Year: 2006–11 | 12,662 | 600 | 697 | 441 | 256 |
Five-Year: 2011–16 | 13,261 | 614 | 702 | 471 | 231 |
Annual: 2016–17 | 13,875 | 195 | 141 | 102 | 39 |
Annual: 2017–18 | 14,070 | 239 | 141 | 107 | 34 |
Annual: 2018–19 | 14,309 | 236 | 140 | 106 | 34 |
Annual: 2019–20 | 14,545 | 181 | 140 | 112 | 29 |
Annual: 2020–21 | 14,726 | 83 | 137 | 116 | 21 |
Annual: 2021–22 | 14,809 | 300 | 142 | 121 | 20 |
Period | Immigrants | Net emigrants | Net NPRs | Net |
---|---|---|---|---|
Five-Year: 2001–06 | 653 | 125 | 44 | 573 |
Five-Year: 2006–11 | 558 | 104 | 57 | 511 |
Five-Year: 2011–16 | 519 | 123 | 85 | 481 |
Annual: 2016–17 | 98 | 19 | 63 | 142 |
Annual: 2017–18 | 132 | 16 | 78 | 194 |
Annual: 2018–19 | 139 | 16 | 72 | 195 |
Annual: 2019–20 | 127 | 15 | 37 | 150 |
Annual: 2020–21 | 108 | 8 | −19 | 81 |
Annual: 2021–22 | 227 | 18 | 117 | 327 |
Period | In | Out | Net |
---|---|---|---|
Five-Year: 2001–06 | 307 | 336 | −30 |
Five-Year: 2006–11 | 296 | 355 | −59 |
Five-Year: 2011–16 | 307 | 346 | −39 |
Annual: 2016–17 | 72 | 58 | 13 |
Annual: 2017–18 | 70 | 60 | 10 |
Annual: 2018–19 | 67 | 60 | 7 |
Annual: 2019–20 | 82 | 79 | 3 |
Annual: 2020–21 | 62 | 81 | −18 |
Annual: 2021–22 | 78 | 125 | −47 |
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.
December 21, 2022
Office of Economic Policy
For more information contact Alex Munger
Accessible description of chart
Components of population growth, Q3 2022 and average for 2017-2021
This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the third quarter of 2022 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2017-2021). In the third quarter of 2022, births, deaths, immigration, emigration and the net change in the number of non-permanent residents were higher than the average of third quarters of the previous five years, while net interprovincial migration was lower.
Footnotes
- footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada's population estimates based on the 2016 Census.
- footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Summer 2022), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
- footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
- footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
- footnote[5] Back to paragraph Households are Census data.
- footnote[6] Back to paragraph In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.