Population growth

Ontario’s population reached 14,915,270 on October 1, 2021, with a increase of 88,994 people during the third quarter of 2021. This compares to an unusual decrease of 5,008 people recorded in the same quarter of 2020.

Population growth, Ontario, Q3 2021
Thousands
Population, July 1, 202114,826.3
Plus Births36.4
Minus Deaths25.4
Plus Immigrants58.5
Minus Emigrants *8.2
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents34.5
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals21.7
Minus Interprovincial Departures28.6
Population, October 1, 202114,915.3

*Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.

Births and deaths

There were 36,439 births during the third quarter of 2021, an increase of 1.0% from the same quarter of 2020. The number of deaths decreased by 5.2% to reach 25,440.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 10,999 in the quarter, up from 9,264 in the same quarter of 2020.

International migration

Immigration to Ontario was 58,548 in the quarter, up from 17,259 in the same quarter of 2020. Ontario received 47.7% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, an increase from 43.0% in the same quarter of 2020. Over the 12 months to September 30, Ontario received 149,154 immigrants, up sharply from 98,429 during the previous year.

There were 8,158 emigrants in the third quarter, compared to 394 during the same quarter of 2020. Ontario accounted for 44.6% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non‑permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers and refugee claimants) increased by 34,497 to about 619,000 in the quarter.

Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 84,887 in the third quarter, up from an unusual net loss of 15,003 in the same quarter of 2020.

Components of population growth, Q3 2021 and average for 2016-2020

components of population growth in the third quarter of 2021 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2016-2020)

* Includes emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.

Accessible description of chart

Interprovincial migration

In the third quarter of 2021, Ontario had a net outflow of 6,892 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net inflow of 731 people in the same quarter of 2020. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with 4 of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net gains from Saskatchewan (890) and Manitoba (855). The largest net losses were to Alberta (-2,820) and Nova Scotia (-2,150). Over the 12 months to September 30, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration outflow was 24,708, compared to a net outflow of 875 during the previous year.

Year-over-year growth

Over the 12 months to September 30, Ontario’s population grew by 174,566 or 1.2%, higher than growth of 102,457 (0.7%) during the previous year. Among the provinces, Ontario had the fifth fastest population growth rate after Prince Edward Island (2.8%), British Columbia (1.8%), Nova Scotia (1.8%) and New Brunswick (1.4%). Canada’s population grew by 403,433 (1.1%) over the period.

For more information contact Alex Munger 437-242-7697.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

Population (000s) - Estimates footnote 1
Region2006201120162018201920202021
Canada32,57134,33936,10937,06537,60138,03738,246
Ontario12,66213,26113,87514,30914,54514,74614,826
Ontario as % of Canada38.938.638.438.638.738.838.7
Ontario average annual growth rate
(Over previous year shown)
1.30.90.91.51.61.40.5
Population (000s) - MOF Projections footnote 2
Region20262031203620412046
Canada40,31542,27144,11545,84447,479
Ontario16,07617,09118,08319,05820,016
Ontario as % of Canada39.940.441.041.642.2
Ontario average annual growth rate
(Over previous year shown)
1.61.21.11.11.0
Age distribution (%) - Estimates footnote 1
Age group2006201120162018201920202021
0–45.45.45.25.05.04.94.8
5–1412.311.211.010.810.710.610.5
15–2413.813.712.913.013.012.812.5
25–4429.427.126.526.727.027.427.6
45–6426.028.328.127.527.126.726.5
65–746.97.69.29.69.810.010.3
75+6.26.67.17.37.57.67.8
Age distribution (%) - MOF Projections footnote 2
Age group20262031203620412046
0–44.94.94.94.94.9
5–1410.09.910.09.99.9
15–2412.912.712.412.412.5
25–4428.428.327.826.926.3
45–6424.122.722.823.624.2
65–7410.911.310.59.49.0
75+8.910.211.713.013.3
Selected age groups (%) - Estimates footnote 1
Age group2006201120162018201920202021
0–1417.816.616.115.815.615.515.3
15–6469.269.167.667.367.166.966.6
65+13.014.216.316.917.317.618.1
Selected age groups (%) - MOF Projections footnote 2
Age group20262031203620412046
0–1414.914.814.814.814.8
15–6465.463.762.962.862.9
65+19.821.622.322.422.2
Other characteristics - Estimates footnote 1
Other characteristic2006201120162018201920202021
Total dependency ratio (%) footnote 360.660.462.663.263.463.663.9
Median age (years)38.439.840.740.640.540.540.7
Age span of baby boom (years)41-6046-6551-7053-7254-7355-7456-75
Total fertility rate footnote 41.551.561.511.451.42n.a. n.a.
Female life expectancy at birth (years) footnote 483.184.084.484.5n.a.n.a. n.a.
Male life expectancy at birth (years) footnote 478.879.880.380.3n.a.n.a. n.a.
Families (000s)3,5393,7223,8323,9534,0104,0554,111
Households (000s) footnote 54,5554,8885,169n.a.n.a.n.a. n.a.
Other characteristics - MOF Projections footnote 2
Other characteristic20262031203620412046
Total dependency ratio (%) footnote 367.972.374.074.574.3
Median age (years)40.440.941.542.042.3
Age span of baby boom (years)61-8066-8571-9076-9581-100
Total fertility rate footnote 41.391.391.421.461.50
Female life expectancy at birth (years) footnote 485.285.986.687.387.9
Male life expectancy at birth (years) footnote 481.282.283.184.084.8
Families (000s) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Households (000s) footnote 5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Regional distribution (%) - Estimates footnote 1
Region2006201120162018201920202021
Greater Toronto Area45.847.247.847.848.048.0 n.a.
Central22.021.621.621.721.721.7 n.a.
Eastern13.213.213.113.113.113.1 n.a.
Southwestern12.612.011.711.711.711.7 n.a.
Northeastern4.54.34.14.03.93.9 n.a.
Northwestern1.91.81.71.71.71.6 n.a.
Regional distribution (%) - MOF Projections footnote 2
Region20262031203620412046
Greater Toronto Area48.548.949.349.649.8
Central21.821.922.022.022.1
Eastern13.012.912.912.812.8
Southwestern11.611.411.311.211.1
Northeastern3.63.43.23.13.0
Northwestern1.51.41.41.31.2
Components of change (000s) footnote 6 — year beginning July 1
PeriodPopulation,
beginning of period
Total changeBirthsDeathsNatural increase
Five-Year: 2001–0611,898764658418240
Five-Year: 2006–1112,662600697441256
Five-Year: 2011–1613,261614702471231
Annual: 2016–1713,87519514110239
Annual: 2017–1814,07023914110734
Annual: 2018–1914,30923614010634
Annual: 2019–2014,54520114011228
Annual: 2020–2114,7468113711720
Components of change (000s) footnote 6 — year beginning July 1
International migration
PeriodImmigrantsNet emigrantsNet NPRsNet
Five-Year: 2001–0665312544573
Five-Year: 2006–1155810457511
Five-Year: 2011–1651912385481
Annual: 2016–17981963142
Annual: 2017–181321678194
Annual: 2018–191391672195
Annual: 2019–20127−340170
Annual: 2020–2110812−1878
Components of change (000s) footnote 6  — year beginning July 1
Interprovincial migration
PeriodInOutNet
Five-Year: 2001–06307336−30
Five-Year: 2006–11296355−59
Five-Year: 2011–16307346−39
Annual: 2016–17725813
Annual: 2017–18706010
Annual: 2018–1967607
Annual: 2019–2075723
Annual: 2020–216583−17

Note: All population figures are for July 1st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

December 16, 2021
Office of Economic Policy


Accessible Image Description:

This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the third quarter of 2021 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2016-2020). In the third quarter of 2021, deaths, immigration, emigration and the net change in the number of non-permanent residents were higher than the average of third quarters of the previous five years, while births and net interprovincial migration were lower.

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