Ontario Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of first quarter
Learn about key facts and figures of the province's demographics for the first quarter of 2026.
Demographic Change
As of April 1, 2026, Ontario’s population reached 16,103,890, reflecting a decrease of 32,590 residents during the first quarter of the year. This was the third consecutive quarterly population decline, following a decrease of 121,780 in the second half of 2025. In contrast, the first quarter of 2025 had seen an increase of 988 people.
Five of the other 9 provinces also experienced population declines in the first quarter. The population of Canada as a whole fell by 55,025.
In the 12 months to April 1, 2026, Ontario’s population declined by 152,648 residents, reflecting an annual decrease of 0.9 per cent. Ontario’s population had grown by 210,004 people or 1.3 per cent during the previous year.
British Columbia (-53,270) and Quebec (-24,901) also experienced sizeable population declines in the 12 months to April 1, 2026. Alberta (46,999) grew significantly, driven by continued strong interprovincial in-migration, followed by Saskatchewan (1,555).
| Component | Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 | 12 months to April 1, 2025 | 12 months to April 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural increase | 3,126 | 1,019 | 20,544 | 15,605 |
| Natural increase – Births | 35,414 | 35,004 | 144,527 | 144,759 |
| Natural increase – Deaths | 32,288 | 33,985 | 123,983 | 129,154 |
| Net migration | -2,138 | -33,609 | 189,460 | -168,253 |
| Migration – Net international migration | 3,182 | -27,835 | 216,153 | -153,755 |
| Migration – International migration – Immigration | 47,275 | 34,851 | 200,372 | 157,265 |
| Migration – International migration – Emigration* | 9,792 | 9,885 | 30,860 | 31,251 |
| Migration – International migration – Net change in non-permanent residents | -34,301 | -52,801 | 46,641 | -279,769 |
| Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Inflow | 43,209 | 30,431 | 315,146 | 169,582 |
| Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Outflow | 77,510 | 83,232 | 268,505 | 449,351 |
| Migration – Net interprovincial migration | -5,320 | -5,774 | -26,693 | -14,498 |
| Migration – Interprovincial migration – Inflow | 18,515 | 16,582 | 74,908 | 74,240 |
| Migration – Interprovincial migration – Outflow | 23,835 | 22,356 | 101,601 | 88,738 |
| Population Growth | 988 | -32,590 | 210,004 | -152,648 |
| Population Growth Rate | 1.3% | -0.9% |
Source: Statistics Canada. *Emigration refers to the net of emigration minus returning emigration.
Natural increase
There were 35,004 births in Ontario during the first quarter of 2026, down slightly from 35,414 in same quarter of 2025. The number of deaths increased, reaching 33,985 in the first quarter of 2026, compared to 32,288 over the same period of the previous year.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 1,019 in the quarter, down from 3,126 in the same quarter of 2025.
International migration
There were 34,851 new immigrants to Ontario in the first quarter, down from 47,275 (-26%) in the same quarter of 2025. In the 12 months to April 1, 2026, there were 157,265 immigrants to the province, down from 200,372 in the previous year. Ontario received 42.2 per cent of all immigrants to Canada over this period, down from 43.0 per cent in the previous year.
There were 9,885 emigrants in the first quarter, compared to 9,792 in the same quarter of 2025.
The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario decreased by 52,801 in the first quarter of 2026, compared to a decline of 34,301 in the same period of 2025. Since October 1, 2024, the number of non-permanent residents in Ontario declined by 328,081 or 22.2 per cent. As of April 1, 2026, there were 1,147,978 non-permanent residents living in Ontario.
The number of asylum claimants and protected persons living in the province increased by 3,888 in the first quarter.
Holders of work permits fell by 35,585, holders of a study permit declined by 15,248, and the number of those holding both a study and a work permit decreased by 2,201.
| Net Change by Category | Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 | 12 months to April 1, 2025 | 12 months to April 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asylum Claimants | 9,800 | 3,888 | 60,182 | 21,208 |
| Holders of Work Permit Only | -16,177 | -35,585 | 75,828 | -108,603 |
| Holders of Study Permit Only | -24,518 | -15,248 | -65,296 | -106,239 |
| Holders of Both Work & Study Permit | -1,663 | -2,201 | -24,180 | -72,397 |
| Other | -1,743 | -3,655 | 107 | -13,738 |
| Total Net Change | -34,301 | -52,801 | 46,641 | -279,769 |
| Number of People as of: | April 1, 2024 | April 1, 2025 | April 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asylum Claimants | 172,253 | 232,435 | 253,643 |
| Holders of Work Permit Only | 627,696 | 703,524 | 594,921 |
| Holders of Study Permit Only | 324,444 | 259,148 | 152,909 |
| Holders of Both Work & Study Permit | 196,401 | 172,221 | 99,824 |
| Other | 60,312 | 60,419 | 46,681 |
| Total | 1,381,106 | 1,427,747 | 1,147,978 |
| Change from Previous Year | +41.2% | +3.4% | -19.6% |
Source: Statistics Canada.
Overall, there was a net international migration loss of 27,835 in the first quarter, down from a net gain of 3,182 in the same quarter of 2025. Net international migration is the sum of all new immigrants during the quarter, minus the number of emigrants, plus the net change in non-permanent residents.
Interprovincial migration
In the first quarter of 2026, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 5,774 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 5,320 people in the same quarter of 2025. In the 12 months to April 1, 2026, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 14,498. While this net loss is above the average for the last 10 years, it is the smallest net loss recorded in the last five years.
Ontario Demographic Factsheet
| Region | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 34,339 | 36,111 | 38,240 | 40,049 | 41,262 | 41,652 |
| Ontario | 13,262 | 13,877 | 14,842 | 15,632 | 16,145 | 16,258 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 38.6 | 38.4 | 38.8 | 39.0 | 39.1 | 39.0 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 0.7 |
| Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 41,656 | 42,875 | 44,433 | 45,929 | 47,441 | 49,002 |
| Ontario | 16,099 | 16,731 | 17,540 | 18,393 | 19,295 | 20,225 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 38.6 | 39.0 | 39.5 | 40.0 | 40.7 | 41.3 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | -1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Age group | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| 5–14 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| 15–24 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 12.5 |
| 25–44 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 27.6 | 28.8 | 29.5 | 29.6 |
| 45–64 | 28.4 | 28.1 | 26.6 | 25.2 | 24.6 | 24.4 |
| 65–74 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.4 |
| 75+ | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.5 |
| Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| 5–14 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| 15–24 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 10.5 |
| 25–44 | 29.2 | 29.1 | 29.0 | 28.5 | 28.4 | 28.3 |
| 45–64 | 24.3 | 23.3 | 23.5 | 24.5 | 25.2 | 25.5 |
| 65–74 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 9.5 |
| 75+ | 8.9 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 13.2 |
| Age group | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 16.6 | 16.1 | 15.5 | 14.9 | 14.7 | 14.6 |
| 15–64 | 69.1 | 67.6 | 66.5 | 66.8 | 67.0 | 66.5 |
| 65+ | 14.2 | 16.3 | 18.0 | 18.3 | 18.4 | 18.9 |
| Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 14.6 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| 15–64 | 65.7 | 64.3 | 64.0 | 64.2 | 64.4 | 64.3 |
| 65+ | 19.7 | 21.9 | 22.7 | 22.9 | 22.7 | 22.7 |
| Other characteristic | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%) | 60.3 | 62.6 | 64.2 | 63.7 | 63.1 | 63.9 |
| Median age (years) | 39.8 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 39.9 | 39.6 | 39.9 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 46-65 | 51-70 | 56-75 | 58-77 | 59-78 | 60-79 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.57 | 1.52 | 1.37 | 1.22 | 1.21 | n.a. |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 84.1 | 84.4 | 84.3 | 84.5 | 85.0 | n.a. |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 79.9 | 80.4 | 79.5 | 80.1 | 80.7 | n.a. |
| Families (000s) | 3,722 | 3,818 | 4,017 | 4,166 | 4,289 | 4,327 |
| Households (000s) | 5,062 | 5,318 | 5,741 | 6,010 | 6,216 | 6,285 |
| Other characteristic | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%) | 66.2 | 69.9 | 69.9 | 68.8 | 67.6 | 67.6 |
| Median age (years) | 40.5 | 41.5 | 42.4 | 43.2 | 43.5 | 43.7 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 61-80 | 66-85 | 71-90 | 76-95 | 81-100 | 86-105 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.21 |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 85.5 | 86.0 | 86.6 | 87.1 | 87.6 | 88.1 |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 81.4 | 82.1 | 82.8 | 83.5 | 84.2 | 84.8 |
| Families (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Households (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Region | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 47.2 | 47.8 | 47.2 | 47.3 | 47.5 | 47.2 |
| Central | 21.6 | 21.6 | 22.1 | 22.2 | 22.1 | 22.2 |
| Eastern | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.3 |
| Southwestern | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 11.9 |
| Northeastern | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Northwestern | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 46.6 | 45.4 | 44.9 | 44.5 | 44.3 | 44.2 |
| Central | 22.5 | 23.0 | 23.2 | 23.3 | 23.3 | 23.3 |
| Eastern | 13.5 | 14.1 | 14.5 | 14.8 | 15.0 | 15.3 |
| Southwestern | 12.0 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| Northeastern | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| Northwestern | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Period | Population, beginning of period | Total change | Births | Deaths | Natural increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 11,897 | 764 | 666 | 418 | 249 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 12,662 | 600 | 709 | 442 | 268 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 13,262 | 614 | 706 | 471 | 234 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 13,877 | 966 | 701 | 543 | 157 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 14,842 | 313 | 139 | 121 | 18 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 15,156 | 477 | 135 | 123 | 12 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 15,632 | 512 | 142 | 122 | 20 |
| Annual: 2024–25 | 16,145 | 113 | 145 | 125 | 20 |
| Period | Immigrants | Net emigrants | Net NPRs | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 653 | 125 | 44 | 573 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 558 | 104 | 58 | 512 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 519 | 123 | 87 | 484 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 605 | 75 | 221 | 751 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 227 | 22 | 121 | 326 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 199 | 30 | 325 | 494 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 198 | 30 | 368 | 535 |
| Annual: 2024–25 | 191 | 31 | -49 | 111 |
| Period | In | Out | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 307 | 336 | -30 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 296 | 355 | -59 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 307 | 346 | -39 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 340 | 326 | 14 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 77 | 108 | -31 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 77 | 106 | -30 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 69 | 112 | -43 |
| Annual: 2024–25 | 65 | 83 | -18 |
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.
Other Demographics Reports
Footnotes
- footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada’s population estimates are based on the 2021 Census.
- footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance, except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
- footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
- footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
- footnote[5] Back to paragraph In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.