Glossary

The following acronyms appear throughout this module:

APS: Achievable Potential Study, the OEB’s 2016 Natural Gas Conservation Potential Study

CNG: Compressed natural gas

DSM: demand-side management (natural gas focused conservation)

EV: electric vehicles

IESO: Independent Electricity System Operator

FTR: Fuels Technical Report

LNG: Liquefied natural gas

OEB: Ontario Energy Board

OPO: Ontario Planning Outlook

PJ: Petajoule

RNG: Renewable natural gas

All Sectors

Demand Outlook

By 2035, the outlook for fuels demand ranges from between approximately 1,800 PJ (Outlook F) and nearly 2,400 PJ (Outlook B).

The FTR recognizes the uncertainty in future fuels demand by addressing a range of possible futures.

Range of Annual Fuels Energy Demand. Demand for all fuels measured in petajoules. 2015-2035.

Range of Annual Fuels Energy Demand Data (in petajoules)
YearEstimateRange
20152333.6455784.347763
20162355.26714312.76259
20172332.98183220.640815
20182325.29044138.134071
20192309.37102254.31513
20202293.2745275.263321
20212268.8210693.915562
20222249.200063115.280383
20232211.3009139.149835
20242184.5178166.02918
20252154.80618190.403928
20262122.272614220.33091
20272088.71885249.511257
20282058.333656280.989339
20292028.947319310.3116
20302000.099398346.726794
20311964.271575379.921356
20321934.723908418.141463
20331900.95668454.030685
20341869.928063493.724791
20351843.187684533.580602

Note: All outlooks are net of demand side management (DSM) and of the fuels savings resulting from fuel economy standards.

Five demand outlooks have been developed to provide context for the Long-Term Energy Plan (LTEP) discussion.

The range of future fuels demand is influenced by a wide variety of factors, including:

  • Global macroeconomic and fuel pricing trends;
  • Ontario-specific demographic and economic trends and technology development; and
  • Trends in policy related to (or that materially affect) fuels use.

Implementation of the province’s climate change policies consistent with the cap and trade program and the Climate Change Action Plan will have an impact on the demand for fuels, primarily through the potential for greater electrification and increased use of alternative fuels which exists in nearly every part of the Ontario fuels energy system.

FTR demand outlooks reflect all of the assumptions adopted by the IESO for the corresponding Ontario Planning Outlook (OPO) demand outlooks.

Note: Outlook A was developed by IESO to explore the implications of lower electricity demand. Applying the assumptions of Outlook A to the fuels sector would result in lower fuels demand than Outlook B. Lower fuels demand is already explored in the FTR by Outlooks C, D, E and F. Outlook A has therefore not been modeled as part of the FTR.

Figure 28: Illustration of Outlook Relationships. Diagram depicting relationship between outlooks B, C, D, E and F and relative position against Fuels Demand.

Definition of Outlooks

SectorOutlook BOutlook COutlook DOutlook EOutlook F
Residential498 PJ in 2035Oil and propane heating switches to heat pumps, electric and water heating gain 25% of gas market share.*
(388 PJ in 2035)
Oil and propane heating switches to heat pumps, electric and water heating gain 50% of gas market share.*
(322 PJ in 2035)
Assumptions as per Outlook C, plus:
  • Incremental DSM consistent with OEB APS “semi-constrained” potential.
  • 35 PJ of RNG used by 2035
(381 PJ in 2035)
Assumptions as per Outlook D, plus:
  • Incremental DSM consistent with OEB APS “unconstrained” potential.
  • 66 PJ of RNG used by 2035
(302 PJ in 2035)
Commercial233 PJ in 2035Oil and propane heating switches to heat pumps, electric and water heating gain 25% of gas market share.*
(192 PJ in 2035)
Oil and propane heating switches to heat pumps, electric and water heating gain 50% of gas market share.*
(177 PJ in 2035)
Assumptions as per Outlook C, plus:
  • Incremental DSM consistent with OEB APS “semi-constrained” potential.
  • 20 PJ of RNG used by 2035
(187 PJ in 2035)
Assumptions as per Outlook D, plus:
  • Incremental DSM consistent with OEB APS “unconstrained” potential.
  • 42 PJ of RNG used by 2035
(147 PJ in 2035)
Industrial671 PJ in 20355% of 2012 fossil energy switches to electric equivalent
(607 PJ in 2035)
10% of 2012 fossil energy switches to electric equivalent
(550 PJ in 2035)
Assumptions as per Outlook C, plus:
  • Incremental DSM consistent with OEB APS “semi-constrained” potential.
  • 23 PJ of RNG used by 2035
(591 PJ in 2035)
Assumptions as per Outlook D, plus:
  • Incremental DSM consistent with OEB APS “unconstrained” potential.
  • 48 PJ of RNG used by 2035
(519 PJ in 2035)
Transportation967 PJ in 2035
  • 2.4 million EVs by 2035.
  • Planned electrified transit projects 2017-2035
(883 PJ in 2035)
  • 2.4 million EVs by 2035.
  • Planned electrified transit projects 2017-2035
(883 PJ in 2035)
Assumptions as per Outlook C, plus:
  • Incremental non-electrified transit.
  • Substitute CNG, LNG, propane, hydrogen, ethanol, and bio-based diesels for conventional fuels
(878 PJ in 2035)
Assumptions as per Outlook C, plus:
  • Incremental non-electrified transit.
  • Substitute more CNG, LNG, propane, hydrogen, ethanol, and bio-based diesels for conventional fuels than in Outlook E
(874 PJ in 2035)
Total2,377 PJ in 20352,070 PJ in 20351,931 PJ in 20352,037 PJ in 20351,842 PJ in 2035

FTR demand outlooks reflect all of the assumptions adopted by the IESO for the corresponding Ontario Planning Outlook (OPO) demand outlooks.

Additional fuels-related assumptions are applied in Outlooks E and F, as summarized in the preceding table. Details of these assumptions are provided below.

All outcomes are assumed to be achieved by 2035 and to be incremental to what would have been achieved under Outlook B.

#Outlook EOutlook F
1200,000 single-family fossil-fuel-heated dwellings have their building envelope sufficiently improved to reduce heating load by 20 GJ/year.600,000 single-family fossil-fuel-heated dwellings have their building envelope sufficiently improved to reduce heating load by 20 GJ/year.
285,000 multi-family fossil-fuel-heated dwellings have their building envelope sufficiently improved to reduce heating load by 9 GJ/year.255,000 multi-family fossil-fuel-heated dwellings have their building envelope sufficiently improved to reduce heating load by 9 GJ/year.
32% reduction in heating load for fossil-fuel heated commercial buildings due to improved building envelope.6% reduction in heating load for fossil-fuel heated commercial buildings due to improved building envelope.
490 million urban trips per year on diesel-fueled buses.180 million urban trips per year on diesel-fueled buses.
5600 diesel-fueled buses replaced by natural gas buses.1,200 diesel-fueled buses replaced by natural gas buses.
6650 million litres of gasoline replaced by ethanol.1,300 million litres of gasoline replaced by ethanol.
7500 million litres of petro-diesel replaced by biodiesel.1,000 million litres of petro-diesel replaced by biodiesel.
8500 million litres of petro-diesel replaced by renewable diesel.1,000 million litres of petro-diesel replaced by renewable diesel.
970,000 propane light-duty vehicles on the road.175,000 propane light-duty vehicles on the road.
10150,000 hydrogen fuel-cell light-duty vehicles on the road.300,000 hydrogen fuel-cell light-duty vehicles on the road.
117.5% of heavy duty freight vehicle km traveled powered by natural gas.15% of heavy duty freight vehicle km traveled powered by natural gas.
1278 PJ of RNG injected to the system.155 PJ of RNG injected to the system.
132 PJ of residential natural gas use reduction due to improved efficiency (incremental DSM).5 PJ of residential natural gas use reduction due to improved efficiency (incremental DSM).
142 PJ of commercial natural gas use reduction due to improved efficiency (incremental DSM).11 PJ of commercial natural gas use reduction due to improved efficiency (incremental DSM).
1512 PJ of industrial natural gas use reduction due to improved efficiency (incremental DSM).24 PJ of industrial natural gas use reduction due to improved efficiency (incremental DSM).

* “market share” refers to a proportion of annual equipment sales, not of total installed equipment stock.

Annual net fuels energy demand across demand outlooks

Annual Net Fuels Energy Demand Across Demand Outlooks. Fuels demand of Ontario Planning Outlooks B, C, D, E and F measured in petajoules. 2015-2035. Does not include electricity generation or industrial non-energy fuel use.

Data for annual net fuels energy demand across demand outlooks (in petajoules)
YearFTR Outlook BFTR Outlook CFTR Outlook DFTR Outlook EFTR Outlook F
20152337.9933412337.6165272337.6165272336.0583172333.645578
20162368.0297332363.26482363.26482360.1193692355.267143
20172353.6226472346.2857172346.2857172341.6030022332.981832
20182363.4245122347.4488742343.7938472340.8822872325.290441
20192363.6861522340.5507062332.9653732332.1035022309.371022
20202368.5378412334.0952032321.8533162323.8029342293.27452
20212362.7366222319.1138492302.1174652307.0460682268.82106
20222364.4804462309.7405532287.1143062295.9454752249.200063
20232350.4507352281.6592462253.5741682266.2420652211.3009
20242350.546982265.7330342231.1346692248.7021892184.5178
20252345.2101082246.320012205.5882922227.7393142154.80618
20262342.6035242224.7976332176.9638722204.7723112122.272614
20272338.2301072204.6707652147.3527812183.1769352088.71885
20282339.3229952185.3854662120.7767512162.4817852058.333656
20292339.2589192165.2955252094.7589442141.0070542028.947319
20302346.8261922152.9195542069.3971812127.3065552000.099398
20312344.1929312128.895782036.9988652102.0617771964.271575
20322352.8653712114.6705562011.0531372086.4787981934.723908
20332354.9873652093.4700261980.9824822063.8458421900.95668
20342363.6528542080.0424911953.7862632048.9189521869.928063
20352376.7682862069.662121931.1323642036.9470491843.187684

Breakdown of fuels energy demand by sector 2015 and 2035

Breakdown of Fuels Energy Demand by Sector 2015 and 2035 for Ontario Planning Outlooks B, C, D, E and F. Demand for all fuels for: Industrial, Transportation, Commercial, Residential, measured in petajoules. All Outlooks are reflected in the year 2015 and Outlooks B, C, D, E and F are each reflected for the year 2035.

Energy (PJ)2015B 2035C 2035D 2035E 2035F 2035
Residential447498388322381302
Commercial215233192177187147
Transportation927975883883878874
Industrial750671607550591519

Fuels energy demand by Sector and Outlook (PJ)

Residential (PJ)
YearBCDEF
2015447447447446446
2016451449449449449
2017454450450450448
2018462456455455451
2019464455454453448
2020469456453454446
2021468451447448438
2022472449442446433
2023470442433439423
2024476441429438418
2025476436421431408
2026480432413428400
2027479425402420388
2028482421394416378
2029483415383409367
2030487411374406357
2031488405363399346
2032492402354396336
2033492396342389323
2034494391331384312
2035498388322381302

View the Residential section.

Commercial (PJ)
YearBCDEF
2015215215215215214
2016215213213213210
2017216213213213209
2018217212212211206
2019218212212211206
2020219210210209203
2021218209209207200
2022218209209207199
2023219208208205196
2024220206206204193
2025221206206204192
2026222205205202189
2027223206203203186
2028224204202201183
2029226203203199182
2030227204199200177
2031228202198198174
2032229201194197169
2033231197190193163
2034232196183191155
2035233192177187147

View the Commercial section.

Industrial (PJ)
YearBCDEF
2015750750750749748
2016763763763761760
2017738738738736733
2018729725722722715
2019722715709711700
2020715704695699685
2021712698685692674
2022708691674684661
2023697677658670643
2024690666644658628
2025686659633650616
2026678648618638600
2027677642610632590
2028672634598623577
2029671629590617568
2030670624583612559
2031665616571603546
2032665612564598538
2033665609558594530
2034667607553592524
2035671607550591519

View the Industrial section.

Transportation (PJ)
YearBCDEF
2015927926926926926
2016938937937937936
2017945945945944943
2018956955955954952
2019960959959957955
2020966964964962960
2021965961961959957
2022967961961959956
2023964955955952950
2024964952952949947
2025961945945942939
2026962940940937934
2027959932932928925
2028961927927923920
2029960918918915911
2030963913913909906
2031963905905901898
2032966900900896892
2033967892892888884
2034971887887882878
2035975883883878874

View the Transportation section.

Economic Assumptions underlying fuels demand outlook

Economic assumptions reflect the assumptions adopted by the IESO for the OPO.

All outlooks
Driver2005-20152015-20252025-2035
Growth in number of residential households15%14%9%
Growth in commercial floor space20%15%11%
Ontario Industrial GDP (annual growth rate)-2%1%1%

Residential Sector

Residential fuels energy demand 2015-2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F

Residential Fuels Energy Demand 2015 – 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F. Demand for all fuels measured in petajoules for Fuels Technical Report Outlook B, C, D, E and F. 2015-2035.

View the data used to create the above graph.

Note: Historical data used to calibrate the CanESS model are obtained from Statistics Canada and NRCan. Actual values in most cases are available only until 2013, meaning that 2015 values reported here are estimated, and outlook-specific, hence why they differ very slightly across outlooks.

Residential Sector Overview

The principal factor that could drive an increase in residential fuels demand in Outlook B is the forecast growth in households in the province.

Factors that could decrease residential fuels demand include:

  • Electrification of space- and water-heating;
  • Incremental building envelope improvement* (e.g. more insulation, more energy-efficient doors and windows, better air tightness etc.); and
  • Incremental natural gas equipment efficiency improvements*.

*Incremental improvements modeled in Outlooks E and F corresponds to incremental achievable DSM potential identified in the OEB’s 2016 Natural Gas Conservation Potential study for the semi-constrained and unconstrained (respectively) achievable potential scenarios, after accounting for the erosion of DSM potential due to electrification.

In Outlook E and F, a substantial proportion of fuels energy shifts from conventional fossil sources (e.g. natural gas) to renewable ones (e.g. renewable natural gas). This shift affects GHG emissions, but does not materially affect total fuels energy use.

Forecast Change in Residential Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 - 2035

Forecast Change in Residential Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 to 2035. Change in fuels demand for: Renewable Natural Gas, Wood, Propane, Natural Gas and Fuel Oil measured in petajoules for Outlooks B, C, D, E and F.

Data for Forecast Change in Residential Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 - 2035 (in petajoules)
Fuel TypeOutlook BOutlook COutlook DOutlook EOutlook F
Fuel Oil-3.056329-23.11011-23.050345-23.324705-23.692831
Natural Gas30.495677-32.59028-98.754673-73.58402132-180.764845
Propane14.905301-12.75174-12.66387-12.883026-12.883026
Wood8.9412899.6062819.7526569.0176168.009838
Renewable Natural Gas00035.0842093265.705419

Residential Demand by Fuel Type (PJ), 2015, 2025, 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F

Residential Demand by Fuel Type (PJ), 2015, 2025, 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E and F. Demand for Renewable Natural Gas, Wood, Propane, Natural Gas and Fuel Oil measured in petajoules for all Outlooks in the year 2015; for Outlook B, C, D, E and F in 2025; and for Outlook B, C, D, E and F in 2035.

Fuels Demand (PJ)2015 - All Outlooks2025 B2025 C2025 D2025 E2025 F2035 B2035 C2035 D2035 E2035 F
Fuel Oil24194444211110
Natural Gas369388383368363324400336270295188
Propane13244443280000
Wood4145454545445050505049
Renewable Natural Gas000017340003566
Total447476436421431408498388322381303

Commercial Sector

Commercial fuels energy demand 2015-2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F

Commercial Fuels Energy Demand 2015 to 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F. Demand for all fuels measured in petajoules for Fuels Technical Report Outlook B, C, D, E, and F. 2015-2035.

View the data used to create the above graph.

Note: Historical data used to calibrate the CanESS model are obtained from Statistics Canada and NRCan. Actual values in most cases are available only until 2013, meaning that 2015 values reported here are estimated, and outlook-specific, hence why they differ very slightly across outlooks.

Commercial Sector Overview

The principal factor that could drive an increase in commercial fuels demand in Outlook B is the forecast growth in commercial floor-space in the province.

Factors that could decrease commercial fuels demand include:

*Note: Incremental improvement modeled in Outlooks E and F corresponds to incremental achievable DSM potential identified in the OEB’s 2016 Natural Gas Conservation Potential study for the semi-constrained and unconstrained (respectively) achievable potential scenarios, after accounting for the erosion of DSM potential due to electrification.

In Outlook E and F, a substantial proportion of fuels energy shifts from fossil sources (e.g. natural gas) to renewable ones (e.g. renewable natural gas). This shift affects GHG emissions, but does not materially affect total fuels energy use.

Forecast Change in Commercial Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 - 2035

Forecast Change in Commercial Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 to 2035. Change in fuels demand for: Renewable Natural Gas, Wood, Propane, Natural Gas and Fuel Oil measured in petajoules for Outlooks B, C, D, E and F.

Data for Forecast Change in Commercial Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 - 2035 (in petajoules)
Fuel TypeOutlook BOutlook COutlook DOutlook EOutlook F
Fuel Oil-0.52231-1.893323-1.893112-1.893775-1.893775
Natural Gas12.926748-11.78443-26.836802-36.46701773-97.2035026
Propane5.884329-9.274061-9.270041-9.47629-10.5098
Renewable Natural Gas00019.5967217342.0246946

Commercial Demand by Fuel Type (PJ), 2015, 2025, 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F

Commercial Demand by Fuel Type (PJ), 2015, 2025, 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E and F. Demand for Renewable Natural Gas, Wood, Propane, Natural Gas and Fuel Oil measured in petajoules for all Outlooks in the year 2015; for Outlook B, C, D, E and F in 2025; and for Outlook B, C, D, E and F in 2035.

Fuels Demand (PJ)2015 - All Outlooks2025 B2025 C2025 D2025 E2025 F2035 B2035 C2035 D2035 E2035 F
Fuel Oil21000010000
Natural Gas200203203203192170213188173163103
Propane13163333194443
Renewable Natural Gas00009190002042
Total215221206206204192233192177187147

Industrial Sector

Industrial fuels energy demand 2015-2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F

Industrial Fuels Energy Demand 2015 to 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F. Demand for all fuels measured in petajoules for Fuels Technical Report Outlook B, C, D, E, and F. 2015-2035.

View the data used to create the above graph.

Note: Historical data used to calibrate the CanESS model are obtained from Statistics Canada and NRCan. Actual values in most cases are available only until 2013, meaning that 2015 values reported here are estimated, and outlook-specific, hence why they differ very slightly across outlooks.

Industrial Sector Overview

Factors that could increase industrial fuels demand beyond what is examined by the five outlooks include shifts in macroeconomic trends and provincial industrial economic activity.

Factors that could decrease industrial fuels demand include:

  • Electrification of industrial processes
  • Incremental natural gas equipment efficiency improvements*

*Note: Incremental improvement modeled in Outlooks E and F corresponds to incremental achievable DSM potential identified in the Ontario Energy Board’s 2016 Natural Gas Conservation Potential study for the semi-constrained and unconstrained (respectively) achievable potential scenarios, after accounting for the erosion of DSM potential due to electrification.

In Outlooks E and F, a substantial proportion of fuels energy shifts from conventional fossil sources (e.g. natural gas) to renewable ones (e.g. renewable natural gas). This shift affects GHG emissions, but does not materially affect total fuels energy use.

Forecast Change in Industrial Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 - 2035

Forecast Change in Industrial Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 to 2035. Change in fuels demand for: Coke and Coke Gas, Petroleum Coke, Diesel, Other Industrial Fuels, Motor Gasoline, Renewable Natural Gas, Still Gas, Propane and NGL, Natural Gas and Fuel Oil measured in petajoules for Outlooks B, C, D, E and F.

Data for Forecast Change in Industrial Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 - 2035 (in petajoules)
Fuel TypeOutlook BOutlook COutlook DOutlook EOutlook F
Fuel Oil-1.145392-4.678724-6.89279-4.717946-6.972032
Natural Gas-20.153817-60.597367-85.142829-96.31163895-156.6602944
Propane and NGL1.4692630.234404-3.9406290.182987-4.044493
Still Gas-0.097916-5.452858-5.525296-8.273366-11.22319
Renewable Natural Gas00022.9420689547.5158864
Motor Gasoline-0.035576-0.035576-0.035576-0.035576-0.035576
Other Industrial Fuels-14.403211-20.963328-38.105009-20.963328-38.105009
Diesel-3.482213-4.548976-4.863073-4.548976-4.863073
Petroleum Coke-3.975449-9.467097-18.615552-9.843251-19.375445
Coke and Coke Gas-37.100314-37.100314-37.100314-37.100314-37.100314

Industrial Demand by Fuel Type (PJ), 2015, 2025, 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F

Industrial Demand by Fuel Type (petajoules), 2015, 2025, 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E and F. Demand for Coke and Coke Gas, Petroleum Coke, Diesel, Other Industrial Fuels, Motor Gasoline, Renewable Natural Gas, Still Gas, Propane and NGL, Natural Gas and Fuel Oil measured in petajoules for all Outlooks in the year 2015; for Outlook B, C, D, E and F in 2025; and for Outlook B, C, D, E and F in 2035. \

Note: does not include industrial non-energy fuels demand

Fuels Demand (PJ)2015 - All Outlooks2025 B2025 C2025 D2025 E2025 F2035 B2035 C2035 D2035 E2035 F
Fuel Oil2019181617161915131513
Natural Gas281260241224224190260220195184124
Propane and NGL2325252425242423192319
Still Gas8585848483818579797774
Renewable Natural Gas000011200002348
Motor Gasoline1010101010101010101010
Other Industrial Fuels7159565356535750335033
Diesel4038383738373736363636
Petroleum Coke4542403840374136273526
Coke and Coke Gas175147147147147147138138138138138
Total750686659633650616671607550591519

Note: does not include industrial non-energy fuels demand

Industrial non-energy fuels demand

In addition to energy and combustion-related demand, a substantial amount of fuels product is used in non-energy processes as a raw material feedstock.

Industrial non-energy fuels demand is not modeled in the outlooks and is not included in the preceding energy demand charts and tables.

Transportation Sector

Transportation fuels energy demand 2015-2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F

Transportation Fuels Energy Demand 2015 to 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F. Demand for all fuels measured in petajoules for Fuels Technical Report Outlook B, C, D, E, and F.

View the data used to create the above graph.

Note: Historical data used to calibrate the CanESS model are obtained from Statistics Canada and NRCan. Actual values in most cases are available only until 2013, meaning that 2015 values reported here are estimated, and outlook-specific, hence why they differ very slightly across outlooks.

Transportation Sector Overview

Factors that could increase transportation fuels demand include:

  • The forecast increase in the number of households, and associated additional vehicle kilometres travelled.
  • The extension of the current upward trend in freight and air travel fuels use in Ontario.

Factors that could decrease transportation fuels demand include:

  • Electrification of transportation as a result of increasing numbers of EVs and the use of electrified public transit;
  • Fuel economy standards (e.g., Corporate Average Fuel Consumption); and
  • The shift to fuels used in vehicles with higher levels of combustion efficiency (e.g., hydrogen personal vehicles, LNG freight).

In Outlooks E and F, a substantial proportion of fuels energy shifts from conventional fossil sources (e.g., gasoline and diesel) to alternative fossil fuels that emit less carbon (e.g., LNG or propane) or to renewable fuels (e.g., ethanol, bio-based diesels). This shift affects GHG emissions, but has little effect on total fuels energy use.

Forecast Change in Transportation Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 - 2035

Forecast Change in Industrial Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 to 2035. Change in fuels demand for: Hydrogen, Ethanol, Biodiesel, Transportation Natural Gas, Propane, Aviation Fuel, Fuel Oil, Diesel and Motor Gasoline measured in petajoules for Outlooks B, C, D, E and F.

Data for Forecast Change in Transportation Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 - 2035 (in petajoules)
Fuel TypeOutlook BOutlook COutlook DOutlook EOutlook F
Motor Gasoline-105.946623-190.670013-190.670013-215.772122-242.068407
Diesel72.04231168.34199168.34199115.370315-37.26023
Fuel Oil1.4608831.4608831.4608831.4608831.460883
Aviation Fuel54.26056454.26056454.26056454.26056454.260564
Propane-1.074836941-1.078018941-1.0780189411.7316340595.924291059
Transportation Natural Gas31.56824631.56815631.56815648.82767665.793344
Biodiesel1.5355871.4498411.44984136.27544971.109529
Ethanol-5.721265463-9.257124463-9.2571244635.94804553721.13693354
Hydrogen0003.4508926.908804

Transportation Demand by Fuel Type (PJ), 2015, 2025, 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F

Transportation Demand by Fuel Type (petajoules), 2015, 2025, 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E and F. Demand for Hydrogen, Ethanol, Biodiesel, Transportation Natural Gas, Propane, Aviation Fuel, Fuel Oil, Diesel and Motor Gasoline measured in petajoules for all Outlooks in the year 2015; for Outlook B, C, D, E and F in 2025; and for Outlook B, C, D, E and F in 2035.

Fuels Demand (PJ)2015 - All Outlooks2025 B2025 C2025 D2025 E2025 F2035 B2035 C2035 D2035 E2035 F
Motor Gasoline514467451451437422408323323298272
Diesel254295295295266238326322322269217
Fuel Oil1416161616161616161616
Aviation Fuel105134134134134134159159159159159
Propane555569444711
Transportation Natural Gas213131323333333335067
Biodiesel566625437774277
Ethanol2825252532402219193449
Hydrogen00002400037
Total927961945945942939975883883878874