Glossary

The following acronyms appear throughout this module:

APS: Achievable Potential Study, the OEB’s 2016 Natural Gas Conservation Potential Study

CNG: Compressed natural gas

DSM: demand-side management (natural gas focused conservation)

EV: electric vehicles

IESO: Independent Electricity System Operator

FTR: Fuels Technical Report

LNG: Liquefied natural gas

OEB: Ontario Energy Board

OPO: Ontario Planning Outlook

PJ: Petajoule

RNG: Renewable natural gas

All Sectors

Demand Outlook

By 2035, the outlook for fuels demand ranges from between approximately 1,800 PJ (Outlook F) and nearly 2,400 PJ (Outlook B).

The FTR recognizes the uncertainty in future fuels demand by addressing a range of possible futures.

Range of Annual Fuels Energy Demand. Demand for all fuels measured in petajoules. 2015-2035.

Range of Annual Fuels Energy Demand Data (in petajoules)
Year Estimate Range
2015 2333.645578 4.347763
2016 2355.267143 12.76259
2017 2332.981832 20.640815
2018 2325.290441 38.134071
2019 2309.371022 54.31513
2020 2293.27452 75.263321
2021 2268.82106 93.915562
2022 2249.200063 115.280383
2023 2211.3009 139.149835
2024 2184.5178 166.02918
2025 2154.80618 190.403928
2026 2122.272614 220.33091
2027 2088.71885 249.511257
2028 2058.333656 280.989339
2029 2028.947319 310.3116
2030 2000.099398 346.726794
2031 1964.271575 379.921356
2032 1934.723908 418.141463
2033 1900.95668 454.030685
2034 1869.928063 493.724791
2035 1843.187684 533.580602

Note: All outlooks are net of demand side management (DSM) and of the fuels savings resulting from fuel economy standards.

Five demand outlooks have been developed to provide context for the Long-Term Energy Plan (LTEP) discussion.

The range of future fuels demand is influenced by a wide variety of factors, including:

  • Global macroeconomic and fuel pricing trends;
  • Ontario-specific demographic and economic trends and technology development; and
  • Trends in policy related to (or that materially affect) fuels use.

Implementation of the province’s climate change policies consistent with the cap and trade program and the Climate Change Action Plan will have an impact on the demand for fuels, primarily through the potential for greater electrification and increased use of alternative fuels which exists in nearly every part of the Ontario fuels energy system.

FTR demand outlooks reflect all of the assumptions adopted by the IESO for the corresponding Ontario Planning Outlook (OPO) demand outlooks.

Note: Outlook A was developed by IESO to explore the implications of lower electricity demand. Applying the assumptions of Outlook A to the fuels sector would result in lower fuels demand than Outlook B. Lower fuels demand is already explored in the FTR by Outlooks C, D, E and F. Outlook A has therefore not been modeled as part of the FTR.

Figure 28: Illustration of Outlook Relationships. Diagram depicting relationship between outlooks B, C, D, E and F and relative position against Fuels Demand.

Definition of Outlooks

Sector Outlook B Outlook C Outlook D Outlook E Outlook F
Residential 498 PJ in 2035 Oil and propane heating switches to heat pumps, electric and water heating gain 25% of gas market share.*
(388 PJ in 2035)		 Oil and propane heating switches to heat pumps, electric and water heating gain 50% of gas market share.*
(322 PJ in 2035)		 Assumptions as per Outlook C, plus:
  • Incremental DSM consistent with OEB APS “semi-constrained” potential.
  • 35 PJ of RNG used by 2035
(381 PJ in 2035)		 Assumptions as per Outlook D, plus:
  • Incremental DSM consistent with OEB APS “unconstrained” potential.
  • 66 PJ of RNG used by 2035
(302 PJ in 2035)
Commercial 233 PJ in 2035 Oil and propane heating switches to heat pumps, electric and water heating gain 25% of gas market share.*
(192 PJ in 2035)		 Oil and propane heating switches to heat pumps, electric and water heating gain 50% of gas market share.*
(177 PJ in 2035)		 Assumptions as per Outlook C, plus:
  • Incremental DSM consistent with OEB APS “semi-constrained” potential.
  • 20 PJ of RNG used by 2035
(187 PJ in 2035)		 Assumptions as per Outlook D, plus:
  • Incremental DSM consistent with OEB APS “unconstrained” potential.
  • 42 PJ of RNG used by 2035
(147 PJ in 2035)
Industrial 671 PJ in 2035 5% of 2012 fossil energy switches to electric equivalent
(607 PJ in 2035)		 10% of 2012 fossil energy switches to electric equivalent
(550 PJ in 2035)		 Assumptions as per Outlook C, plus:
  • Incremental DSM consistent with OEB APS “semi-constrained” potential.
  • 23 PJ of RNG used by 2035
(591 PJ in 2035)		 Assumptions as per Outlook D, plus:
  • Incremental DSM consistent with OEB APS “unconstrained” potential.
  • 48 PJ of RNG used by 2035
(519 PJ in 2035)
Transportation 967 PJ in 2035
  • 2.4 million EVs by 2035.
  • Planned electrified transit projects 2017-2035
(883 PJ in 2035)
  • 2.4 million EVs by 2035.
  • Planned electrified transit projects 2017-2035
(883 PJ in 2035)		 Assumptions as per Outlook C, plus:
  • Incremental non-electrified transit.
  • Substitute CNG, LNG, propane, hydrogen, ethanol, and bio-based diesels for conventional fuels
(878 PJ in 2035)		 Assumptions as per Outlook C, plus:
  • Incremental non-electrified transit.
  • Substitute more CNG, LNG, propane, hydrogen, ethanol, and bio-based diesels for conventional fuels than in Outlook E
(874 PJ in 2035)
Total 2,377 PJ in 2035 2,070 PJ in 2035 1,931 PJ in 2035 2,037 PJ in 2035 1,842 PJ in 2035

FTR demand outlooks reflect all of the assumptions adopted by the IESO for the corresponding Ontario Planning Outlook (OPO) demand outlooks.

Additional fuels-related assumptions are applied in Outlooks E and F, as summarized in the preceding table. Details of these assumptions are provided below.

All outcomes are assumed to be achieved by 2035 and to be incremental to what would have been achieved under Outlook B.

# Outlook E Outlook F
1 200,000 single-family fossil-fuel-heated dwellings have their building envelope sufficiently improved to reduce heating load by 20 GJ/year. 600,000 single-family fossil-fuel-heated dwellings have their building envelope sufficiently improved to reduce heating load by 20 GJ/year.
2 85,000 multi-family fossil-fuel-heated dwellings have their building envelope sufficiently improved to reduce heating load by 9 GJ/year. 255,000 multi-family fossil-fuel-heated dwellings have their building envelope sufficiently improved to reduce heating load by 9 GJ/year.
3 2% reduction in heating load for fossil-fuel heated commercial buildings due to improved building envelope. 6% reduction in heating load for fossil-fuel heated commercial buildings due to improved building envelope.
4 90 million urban trips per year on diesel-fueled buses. 180 million urban trips per year on diesel-fueled buses.
5 600 diesel-fueled buses replaced by natural gas buses. 1,200 diesel-fueled buses replaced by natural gas buses.
6 650 million litres of gasoline replaced by ethanol. 1,300 million litres of gasoline replaced by ethanol.
7 500 million litres of petro-diesel replaced by biodiesel. 1,000 million litres of petro-diesel replaced by biodiesel.
8 500 million litres of petro-diesel replaced by renewable diesel. 1,000 million litres of petro-diesel replaced by renewable diesel.
9 70,000 propane light-duty vehicles on the road. 175,000 propane light-duty vehicles on the road.
10 150,000 hydrogen fuel-cell light-duty vehicles on the road. 300,000 hydrogen fuel-cell light-duty vehicles on the road.
11 7.5% of heavy duty freight vehicle km traveled powered by natural gas. 15% of heavy duty freight vehicle km traveled powered by natural gas.
12 78 PJ of RNG injected to the system. 155 PJ of RNG injected to the system.
13 2 PJ of residential natural gas use reduction due to improved efficiency (incremental DSM). 5 PJ of residential natural gas use reduction due to improved efficiency (incremental DSM).
14 2 PJ of commercial natural gas use reduction due to improved efficiency (incremental DSM). 11 PJ of commercial natural gas use reduction due to improved efficiency (incremental DSM).
15 12 PJ of industrial natural gas use reduction due to improved efficiency (incremental DSM). 24 PJ of industrial natural gas use reduction due to improved efficiency (incremental DSM).

* “market share” refers to a proportion of annual equipment sales, not of total installed equipment stock.

Annual net fuels energy demand across demand outlooks

Annual Net Fuels Energy Demand Across Demand Outlooks. Fuels demand of Ontario Planning Outlooks B, C, D, E and F measured in petajoules. 2015-2035. Does not include electricity generation or industrial non-energy fuel use.

Data for annual net fuels energy demand across demand outlooks (in petajoules)
Year FTR Outlook B FTR Outlook C FTR Outlook D FTR Outlook E FTR Outlook F
2015 2337.993341 2337.616527 2337.616527 2336.058317 2333.645578
2016 2368.029733 2363.2648 2363.2648 2360.119369 2355.267143
2017 2353.622647 2346.285717 2346.285717 2341.603002 2332.981832
2018 2363.424512 2347.448874 2343.793847 2340.882287 2325.290441
2019 2363.686152 2340.550706 2332.965373 2332.103502 2309.371022
2020 2368.537841 2334.095203 2321.853316 2323.802934 2293.27452
2021 2362.736622 2319.113849 2302.117465 2307.046068 2268.82106
2022 2364.480446 2309.740553 2287.114306 2295.945475 2249.200063
2023 2350.450735 2281.659246 2253.574168 2266.242065 2211.3009
2024 2350.54698 2265.733034 2231.134669 2248.702189 2184.5178
2025 2345.210108 2246.32001 2205.588292 2227.739314 2154.80618
2026 2342.603524 2224.797633 2176.963872 2204.772311 2122.272614
2027 2338.230107 2204.670765 2147.352781 2183.176935 2088.71885
2028 2339.322995 2185.385466 2120.776751 2162.481785 2058.333656
2029 2339.258919 2165.295525 2094.758944 2141.007054 2028.947319
2030 2346.826192 2152.919554 2069.397181 2127.306555 2000.099398
2031 2344.192931 2128.89578 2036.998865 2102.061777 1964.271575
2032 2352.865371 2114.670556 2011.053137 2086.478798 1934.723908
2033 2354.987365 2093.470026 1980.982482 2063.845842 1900.95668
2034 2363.652854 2080.042491 1953.786263 2048.918952 1869.928063
2035 2376.768286 2069.66212 1931.132364 2036.947049 1843.187684

Breakdown of fuels energy demand by sector 2015 and 2035

Breakdown of Fuels Energy Demand by Sector 2015 and 2035 for Ontario Planning Outlooks B, C, D, E and F. Demand for all fuels for: Industrial, Transportation, Commercial, Residential, measured in petajoules. All Outlooks are reflected in the year 2015 and Outlooks B, C, D, E and F are each reflected for the year 2035.

Energy (PJ) 2015 B 2035 C 2035 D 2035 E 2035 F 2035
Residential 447 498 388 322 381 302
Commercial 215 233 192 177 187 147
Transportation 927 975 883 883 878 874
Industrial 750 671 607 550 591 519

Fuels energy demand by Sector and Outlook (PJ)

Residential (PJ)
Year B C D E F
2015 447 447 447 446 446
2016 451 449 449 449 449
2017 454 450 450 450 448
2018 462 456 455 455 451
2019 464 455 454 453 448
2020 469 456 453 454 446
2021 468 451 447 448 438
2022 472 449 442 446 433
2023 470 442 433 439 423
2024 476 441 429 438 418
2025 476 436 421 431 408
2026 480 432 413 428 400
2027 479 425 402 420 388
2028 482 421 394 416 378
2029 483 415 383 409 367
2030 487 411 374 406 357
2031 488 405 363 399 346
2032 492 402 354 396 336
2033 492 396 342 389 323
2034 494 391 331 384 312
2035 498 388 322 381 302

View the Residential section.

Commercial (PJ)
Year B C D E F
2015 215 215 215 215 214
2016 215 213 213 213 210
2017 216 213 213 213 209
2018 217 212 212 211 206
2019 218 212 212 211 206
2020 219 210 210 209 203
2021 218 209 209 207 200
2022 218 209 209 207 199
2023 219 208 208 205 196
2024 220 206 206 204 193
2025 221 206 206 204 192
2026 222 205 205 202 189
2027 223 206 203 203 186
2028 224 204 202 201 183
2029 226 203 203 199 182
2030 227 204 199 200 177
2031 228 202 198 198 174
2032 229 201 194 197 169
2033 231 197 190 193 163
2034 232 196 183 191 155
2035 233 192 177 187 147

View the Commercial section.

Industrial (PJ)
Year B C D E F
2015 750 750 750 749 748
2016 763 763 763 761 760
2017 738 738 738 736 733
2018 729 725 722 722 715
2019 722 715 709 711 700
2020 715 704 695 699 685
2021 712 698 685 692 674
2022 708 691 674 684 661
2023 697 677 658 670 643
2024 690 666 644 658 628
2025 686 659 633 650 616
2026 678 648 618 638 600
2027 677 642 610 632 590
2028 672 634 598 623 577
2029 671 629 590 617 568
2030 670 624 583 612 559
2031 665 616 571 603 546
2032 665 612 564 598 538
2033 665 609 558 594 530
2034 667 607 553 592 524
2035 671 607 550 591 519

View the Industrial section.

Transportation (PJ)
Year B C D E F
2015 927 926 926 926 926
2016 938 937 937 937 936
2017 945 945 945 944 943
2018 956 955 955 954 952
2019 960 959 959 957 955
2020 966 964 964 962 960
2021 965 961 961 959 957
2022 967 961 961 959 956
2023 964 955 955 952 950
2024 964 952 952 949 947
2025 961 945 945 942 939
2026 962 940 940 937 934
2027 959 932 932 928 925
2028 961 927 927 923 920
2029 960 918 918 915 911
2030 963 913 913 909 906
2031 963 905 905 901 898
2032 966 900 900 896 892
2033 967 892 892 888 884
2034 971 887 887 882 878
2035 975 883 883 878 874

View the Transportation section.

Economic Assumptions underlying fuels demand outlook

Economic assumptions reflect the assumptions adopted by the IESO for the OPO.

All outlooks
Driver 2005-2015 2015-2025 2025-2035
Growth in number of residential households 15% 14% 9%
Growth in commercial floor space 20% 15% 11%
Ontario Industrial GDP (annual growth rate) -2% 1% 1%

Residential Sector

Residential fuels energy demand 2015-2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F

Residential Fuels Energy Demand 2015 – 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F. Demand for all fuels measured in petajoules for Fuels Technical Report Outlook B, C, D, E and F. 2015-2035.

View the data used to create the above graph.

Note: Historical data used to calibrate the CanESS model are obtained from Statistics Canada and NRCan. Actual values in most cases are available only until 2013, meaning that 2015 values reported here are estimated, and outlook-specific, hence why they differ very slightly across outlooks.

Residential Sector Overview

The principal factor that could drive an increase in residential fuels demand in Outlook B is the forecast growth in households in the province.

Factors that could decrease residential fuels demand include:

  • Electrification of space- and water-heating;
  • Incremental building envelope improvement* (e.g. more insulation, more energy-efficient doors and windows, better air tightness etc.); and
  • Incremental natural gas equipment efficiency improvements*.

*Incremental improvements modeled in Outlooks E and F corresponds to incremental achievable DSM potential identified in the OEB’s 2016 Natural Gas Conservation Potential study for the semi-constrained and unconstrained (respectively) achievable potential scenarios, after accounting for the erosion of DSM potential due to electrification.

In Outlook E and F, a substantial proportion of fuels energy shifts from conventional fossil sources (e.g. natural gas) to renewable ones (e.g. renewable natural gas). This shift affects GHG emissions, but does not materially affect total fuels energy use.

Forecast Change in Residential Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 - 2035

Forecast Change in Residential Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 to 2035. Change in fuels demand for: Renewable Natural Gas, Wood, Propane, Natural Gas and Fuel Oil measured in petajoules for Outlooks B, C, D, E and F.

Data for Forecast Change in Residential Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 - 2035 (in petajoules)
Fuel Type Outlook B Outlook C Outlook D Outlook E Outlook F
Fuel Oil -3.056329 -23.11011 -23.050345 -23.324705 -23.692831
Natural Gas 30.495677 -32.59028 -98.754673 -73.58402132 -180.764845
Propane 14.905301 -12.75174 -12.66387 -12.883026 -12.883026
Wood 8.941289 9.606281 9.752656 9.017616 8.009838
Renewable Natural Gas 0 0 0 35.08420932 65.705419

Residential Demand by Fuel Type (PJ), 2015, 2025, 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F

Residential Demand by Fuel Type (PJ), 2015, 2025, 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E and F. Demand for Renewable Natural Gas, Wood, Propane, Natural Gas and Fuel Oil measured in petajoules for all Outlooks in the year 2015; for Outlook B, C, D, E and F in 2025; and for Outlook B, C, D, E and F in 2035.

Fuels Demand (PJ) 2015 - All Outlooks 2025 B 2025 C 2025 D 2025 E 2025 F 2035 B 2035 C 2035 D 2035 E 2035 F
Fuel Oil 24 19 4 4 4 4 21 1 1 1 0
Natural Gas 369 388 383 368 363 324 400 336 270 295 188
Propane 13 24 4 4 4 3 28 0 0 0 0
Wood 41 45 45 45 45 44 50 50 50 50 49
Renewable Natural Gas 0 0 0 0 17 34 0 0 0 35 66
Total 447 476 436 421 431 408 498 388 322 381 303

Commercial Sector

Commercial fuels energy demand 2015-2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F

Commercial Fuels Energy Demand 2015 to 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F. Demand for all fuels measured in petajoules for Fuels Technical Report Outlook B, C, D, E, and F. 2015-2035.

View the data used to create the above graph.

Note: Historical data used to calibrate the CanESS model are obtained from Statistics Canada and NRCan. Actual values in most cases are available only until 2013, meaning that 2015 values reported here are estimated, and outlook-specific, hence why they differ very slightly across outlooks.

Commercial Sector Overview

The principal factor that could drive an increase in commercial fuels demand in Outlook B is the forecast growth in commercial floor-space in the province.

Factors that could decrease commercial fuels demand include:

*Note: Incremental improvement modeled in Outlooks E and F corresponds to incremental achievable DSM potential identified in the OEB’s 2016 Natural Gas Conservation Potential study for the semi-constrained and unconstrained (respectively) achievable potential scenarios, after accounting for the erosion of DSM potential due to electrification.

In Outlook E and F, a substantial proportion of fuels energy shifts from fossil sources (e.g. natural gas) to renewable ones (e.g. renewable natural gas). This shift affects GHG emissions, but does not materially affect total fuels energy use.

Forecast Change in Commercial Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 - 2035

Forecast Change in Commercial Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 to 2035. Change in fuels demand for: Renewable Natural Gas, Wood, Propane, Natural Gas and Fuel Oil measured in petajoules for Outlooks B, C, D, E and F.

Data for Forecast Change in Commercial Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 - 2035 (in petajoules)
Fuel Type Outlook B Outlook C Outlook D Outlook E Outlook F
Fuel Oil -0.52231 -1.893323 -1.893112 -1.893775 -1.893775
Natural Gas 12.926748 -11.78443 -26.836802 -36.46701773 -97.2035026
Propane 5.884329 -9.274061 -9.270041 -9.47629 -10.5098
Renewable Natural Gas 0 0 0 19.59672173 42.0246946

Commercial Demand by Fuel Type (PJ), 2015, 2025, 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F

Commercial Demand by Fuel Type (PJ), 2015, 2025, 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E and F. Demand for Renewable Natural Gas, Wood, Propane, Natural Gas and Fuel Oil measured in petajoules for all Outlooks in the year 2015; for Outlook B, C, D, E and F in 2025; and for Outlook B, C, D, E and F in 2035.

Fuels Demand (PJ) 2015 - All Outlooks 2025 B 2025 C 2025 D 2025 E 2025 F 2035 B 2035 C 2035 D 2035 E 2035 F
Fuel Oil 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 200 203 203 203 192 170 213 188 173 163 103
Propane 13 16 3 3 3 3 19 4 4 4 3
Renewable Natural Gas 0 0 0 0 9 19 0 0 0 20 42
Total 215 221 206 206 204 192 233 192 177 187 147

Industrial Sector

Industrial fuels energy demand 2015-2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F

Industrial Fuels Energy Demand 2015 to 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F. Demand for all fuels measured in petajoules for Fuels Technical Report Outlook B, C, D, E, and F. 2015-2035.

View the data used to create the above graph.

Note: Historical data used to calibrate the CanESS model are obtained from Statistics Canada and NRCan. Actual values in most cases are available only until 2013, meaning that 2015 values reported here are estimated, and outlook-specific, hence why they differ very slightly across outlooks.

Industrial Sector Overview

Factors that could increase industrial fuels demand beyond what is examined by the five outlooks include shifts in macroeconomic trends and provincial industrial economic activity.

Factors that could decrease industrial fuels demand include:

  • Electrification of industrial processes
  • Incremental natural gas equipment efficiency improvements*

*Note: Incremental improvement modeled in Outlooks E and F corresponds to incremental achievable DSM potential identified in the Ontario Energy Board’s 2016 Natural Gas Conservation Potential study for the semi-constrained and unconstrained (respectively) achievable potential scenarios, after accounting for the erosion of DSM potential due to electrification.

In Outlooks E and F, a substantial proportion of fuels energy shifts from conventional fossil sources (e.g. natural gas) to renewable ones (e.g. renewable natural gas). This shift affects GHG emissions, but does not materially affect total fuels energy use.

Forecast Change in Industrial Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 - 2035

Forecast Change in Industrial Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 to 2035. Change in fuels demand for: Coke and Coke Gas, Petroleum Coke, Diesel, Other Industrial Fuels, Motor Gasoline, Renewable Natural Gas, Still Gas, Propane and NGL, Natural Gas and Fuel Oil measured in petajoules for Outlooks B, C, D, E and F.

Data for Forecast Change in Industrial Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 - 2035 (in petajoules)
Fuel Type Outlook B Outlook C Outlook D Outlook E Outlook F
Fuel Oil -1.145392 -4.678724 -6.89279 -4.717946 -6.972032
Natural Gas -20.153817 -60.597367 -85.142829 -96.31163895 -156.6602944
Propane and NGL 1.469263 0.234404 -3.940629 0.182987 -4.044493
Still Gas -0.097916 -5.452858 -5.525296 -8.273366 -11.22319
Renewable Natural Gas 0 0 0 22.94206895 47.5158864
Motor Gasoline -0.035576 -0.035576 -0.035576 -0.035576 -0.035576
Other Industrial Fuels -14.403211 -20.963328 -38.105009 -20.963328 -38.105009
Diesel -3.482213 -4.548976 -4.863073 -4.548976 -4.863073
Petroleum Coke -3.975449 -9.467097 -18.615552 -9.843251 -19.375445
Coke and Coke Gas -37.100314 -37.100314 -37.100314 -37.100314 -37.100314

Industrial Demand by Fuel Type (PJ), 2015, 2025, 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F

Industrial Demand by Fuel Type (petajoules), 2015, 2025, 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E and F. Demand for Coke and Coke Gas, Petroleum Coke, Diesel, Other Industrial Fuels, Motor Gasoline, Renewable Natural Gas, Still Gas, Propane and NGL, Natural Gas and Fuel Oil measured in petajoules for all Outlooks in the year 2015; for Outlook B, C, D, E and F in 2025; and for Outlook B, C, D, E and F in 2035. \

Note: does not include industrial non-energy fuels demand

Fuels Demand (PJ) 2015 - All Outlooks 2025 B 2025 C 2025 D 2025 E 2025 F 2035 B 2035 C 2035 D 2035 E 2035 F
Fuel Oil 20 19 18 16 17 16 19 15 13 15 13
Natural Gas 281 260 241 224 224 190 260 220 195 184 124
Propane and NGL 23 25 25 24 25 24 24 23 19 23 19
Still Gas 85 85 84 84 83 81 85 79 79 77 74
Renewable Natural Gas 0 0 0 0 11 20 0 0 0 23 48
Motor Gasoline 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Other Industrial Fuels 71 59 56 53 56 53 57 50 33 50 33
Diesel 40 38 38 37 38 37 37 36 36 36 36
Petroleum Coke 45 42 40 38 40 37 41 36 27 35 26
Coke and Coke Gas 175 147 147 147 147 147 138 138 138 138 138
Total 750 686 659 633 650 616 671 607 550 591 519

Note: does not include industrial non-energy fuels demand

Industrial non-energy fuels demand

In addition to energy and combustion-related demand, a substantial amount of fuels product is used in non-energy processes as a raw material feedstock.

Industrial non-energy fuels demand is not modeled in the outlooks and is not included in the preceding energy demand charts and tables.

Transportation Sector

Transportation fuels energy demand 2015-2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F

Transportation Fuels Energy Demand 2015 to 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F. Demand for all fuels measured in petajoules for Fuels Technical Report Outlook B, C, D, E, and F.

View the data used to create the above graph.

Note: Historical data used to calibrate the CanESS model are obtained from Statistics Canada and NRCan. Actual values in most cases are available only until 2013, meaning that 2015 values reported here are estimated, and outlook-specific, hence why they differ very slightly across outlooks.

Transportation Sector Overview

Factors that could increase transportation fuels demand include:

  • The forecast increase in the number of households, and associated additional vehicle kilometres travelled.
  • The extension of the current upward trend in freight and air travel fuels use in Ontario.

Factors that could decrease transportation fuels demand include:

  • Electrification of transportation as a result of increasing numbers of EVs and the use of electrified public transit;
  • Fuel economy standards (e.g., Corporate Average Fuel Consumption); and
  • The shift to fuels used in vehicles with higher levels of combustion efficiency (e.g., hydrogen personal vehicles, LNG freight).

In Outlooks E and F, a substantial proportion of fuels energy shifts from conventional fossil sources (e.g., gasoline and diesel) to alternative fossil fuels that emit less carbon (e.g., LNG or propane) or to renewable fuels (e.g., ethanol, bio-based diesels). This shift affects GHG emissions, but has little effect on total fuels energy use.

Forecast Change in Transportation Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 - 2035

Forecast Change in Industrial Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 to 2035. Change in fuels demand for: Hydrogen, Ethanol, Biodiesel, Transportation Natural Gas, Propane, Aviation Fuel, Fuel Oil, Diesel and Motor Gasoline measured in petajoules for Outlooks B, C, D, E and F.

Data for Forecast Change in Transportation Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2015 - 2035 (in petajoules)
Fuel Type Outlook B Outlook C Outlook D Outlook E Outlook F
Motor Gasoline -105.946623 -190.670013 -190.670013 -215.772122 -242.068407
Diesel 72.042311 68.341991 68.341991 15.370315 -37.26023
Fuel Oil 1.460883 1.460883 1.460883 1.460883 1.460883
Aviation Fuel 54.260564 54.260564 54.260564 54.260564 54.260564
Propane -1.074836941 -1.078018941 -1.078018941 1.731634059 5.924291059
Transportation Natural Gas 31.568246 31.568156 31.568156 48.827676 65.793344
Biodiesel 1.535587 1.449841 1.449841 36.275449 71.109529
Ethanol -5.721265463 -9.257124463 -9.257124463 5.948045537 21.13693354
Hydrogen 0 0 0 3.450892 6.908804

Transportation Demand by Fuel Type (PJ), 2015, 2025, 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E, F

Transportation Demand by Fuel Type (petajoules), 2015, 2025, 2035: Outlooks B, C, D, E and F. Demand for Hydrogen, Ethanol, Biodiesel, Transportation Natural Gas, Propane, Aviation Fuel, Fuel Oil, Diesel and Motor Gasoline measured in petajoules for all Outlooks in the year 2015; for Outlook B, C, D, E and F in 2025; and for Outlook B, C, D, E and F in 2035.

Fuels Demand (PJ) 2015 - All Outlooks 2025 B 2025 C 2025 D 2025 E 2025 F 2035 B 2035 C 2035 D 2035 E 2035 F
Motor Gasoline 514 467 451 451 437 422 408 323 323 298 272
Diesel 254 295 295 295 266 238 326 322 322 269 217
Fuel Oil 14 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
Aviation Fuel 105 134 134 134 134 134 159 159 159 159 159
Propane 5 5 5 5 6 9 4 4 4 7 11
Transportation Natural Gas 2 13 13 13 23 33 33 33 33 50 67
Biodiesel 5 6 6 6 25 43 7 7 7 42 77
Ethanol 28 25 25 25 32 40 22 19 19 34 49
Hydrogen 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 3 7
Total 927 961 945 945 942 939 975 883 883 878 874