Emissions Outlook

The following slides provide additional detail on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions outlook discussed in the Fuels Technical Report (FTR).

Total GHG emissions from CO2, CH4 and N2O are presented in megatonnes (MT) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) for each demand outlook and sector.

All graphs are accompanied by the data supporting them.

Note: The GHG emissions outlook does not include emissions from electricity generation, which are addressed in the IESO’s Ontario Planning Outlook, or from industrial non-energy fuels demand.

Fuels combustion GHG emissions outlook

Fuels Combustion
GHG Emissions Outlook. Downward trend in total GHG emissions for Ontario Planning Outlooks B, C, D, E and F measured in megatonnes. 2015 to 2035.

Fuels combustion GHG emissions outlook, MT of CO2e

YearBCDEF
2015122122122121121
2016123123123122121
2017123122122121120
2018123122122121119
2019123122121120117
2020124122121119116
2021123121120118114
2022123120119117112
2023123118117114108
2024122117116113106
2025122116114110102
202612211511210899
202712111311110695
202812111210910492
202912111110710390
203012211010610187
20311221091049984
20321221081039882
20331221061019680
2034122106999577
2035123105989475

Emissions relative to 2014 levels

Emissions Relative to 2014 Levels. Comparison of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in Transportation, Residential, Commercial and Industrial sectors for Ontario Planning Outlooks B, C, D, E and F in the years 2025 and 2035 to cumulative greenhouse gas emissions for the same sectors in 2014.

MT CO2e/YearB 2025C 2025D 2025E 2025F 2025B 2035C 2035D 2035E 2035F 2035
Transportation1-1-2-2-42-4-7-6-11
Residential0-1-1-1-21-1-2-3-6
Commercial322-1-43-3-3-9-14
Industrial-4-5-6-6-8-4-8-11-10-15

Residential Fuels combustion GHG emissions outlook, MT of CO2e

Residential
YearBCDEF
20152121212121
20162121212121
20172121212121
20182221212121
20192221212121
20202221212120
20212221202020
20222220202019
20232220202018
20242220191918
20252220191917
20262219181816
20272219181715
20282219171714
20292218171613
20302318161612
20312318161612
20322318151611
20332317151511
20342317141510
20352317131510

Commercial Fuels combustion GHG emissions outlook, MT of CO2e

Commercial
YearBCDEF
20151111111111
20161111111111
20171111111111
20181111111110
20191111111110
20201111111010
20211110101010
20221110101010
2023111010109
2024111010109
2025111010109
202611101098
202711101098
202811101097
202911101097
203011101097
203112101096
203212101096
20331210996
20341210985
20351210985

Industrial Fuels combustion GHG emissions outlook, MT of CO2e

Industrial
YearBCDEF
20152929292929
20162929292929
20172828282828
20182827272727
20192727262726
20202726262625
20212726252624
20222626252524
20232625242423
20242524232322
20252524222321
20262523222219
20272523212219
20282422212118
20292422202117
20302422202016
20312422192016
20322421191915
20332421181915
20342421181914
20352421181914

Note: Does not include emissions from industrial non-energy fuels demand.

Transportation Fuels combustion GHG emissions outlook, MT of CO2e

Transportation
YearBCDEF
20156161616161
20166262626161
20176262626261
20186363636261
20196363636261
20206464646260
20216464646260
20226463636159
20236463636158
20246463636057
20256362625956
20266362625955
20276361615854
20286361615753
20296360605652
20306360605652
20316360605551
20326359595449
20336358585348
20346358585347
20356458585247