Emissions Outlook

The following slides provide additional detail on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions outlook discussed in the Fuels Technical Report (FTR).

Total GHG emissions from CO2, CH4 and N2O are presented in megatonnes (MT) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) for each demand outlook and sector.

All graphs are accompanied by the data supporting them.

Note: The GHG emissions outlook does not include emissions from electricity generation, which are addressed in the IESO’s Ontario Planning Outlook, or from industrial non-energy fuels demand.

Fuels combustion GHG emissions outlook

Fuels Combustion
GHG Emissions Outlook. Downward trend in total GHG emissions for Ontario Planning Outlooks B, C, D, E and F measured in megatonnes. 2015 to 2035.

Fuels combustion GHG emissions outlook, MT of CO2e

Year B C D E F
2015 122 122 122 121 121
2016 123 123 123 122 121
2017 123 122 122 121 120
2018 123 122 122 121 119
2019 123 122 121 120 117
2020 124 122 121 119 116
2021 123 121 120 118 114
2022 123 120 119 117 112
2023 123 118 117 114 108
2024 122 117 116 113 106
2025 122 116 114 110 102
2026 122 115 112 108 99
2027 121 113 111 106 95
2028 121 112 109 104 92
2029 121 111 107 103 90
2030 122 110 106 101 87
2031 122 109 104 99 84
2032 122 108 103 98 82
2033 122 106 101 96 80
2034 122 106 99 95 77
2035 123 105 98 94 75

Emissions relative to 2014 levels

Emissions Relative to 2014 Levels. Comparison of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in Transportation, Residential, Commercial and Industrial sectors for Ontario Planning Outlooks B, C, D, E and F in the years 2025 and 2035 to cumulative greenhouse gas emissions for the same sectors in 2014.

MT CO2e/Year B 2025 C 2025 D 2025 E 2025 F 2025 B 2035 C 2035 D 2035 E 2035 F 2035
Transportation 1 -1 -2 -2 -4 2 -4 -7 -6 -11
Residential 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 1 -1 -2 -3 -6
Commercial 3 2 2 -1 -4 3 -3 -3 -9 -14
Industrial -4 -5 -6 -6 -8 -4 -8 -11 -10 -15

Residential Fuels combustion GHG emissions outlook, MT of CO2e

Residential
Year B C D E F
2015 21 21 21 21 21
2016 21 21 21 21 21
2017 21 21 21 21 21
2018 22 21 21 21 21
2019 22 21 21 21 21
2020 22 21 21 21 20
2021 22 21 20 20 20
2022 22 20 20 20 19
2023 22 20 20 20 18
2024 22 20 19 19 18
2025 22 20 19 19 17
2026 22 19 18 18 16
2027 22 19 18 17 15
2028 22 19 17 17 14
2029 22 18 17 16 13
2030 23 18 16 16 12
2031 23 18 16 16 12
2032 23 18 15 16 11
2033 23 17 15 15 11
2034 23 17 14 15 10
2035 23 17 13 15 10

Commercial Fuels combustion GHG emissions outlook, MT of CO2e

Commercial
Year B C D E F
2015 11 11 11 11 11
2016 11 11 11 11 11
2017 11 11 11 11 11
2018 11 11 11 11 10
2019 11 11 11 11 10
2020 11 11 11 10 10
2021 11 10 10 10 10
2022 11 10 10 10 10
2023 11 10 10 10 9
2024 11 10 10 10 9
2025 11 10 10 10 9
2026 11 10 10 9 8
2027 11 10 10 9 8
2028 11 10 10 9 7
2029 11 10 10 9 7
2030 11 10 10 9 7
2031 12 10 10 9 6
2032 12 10 10 9 6
2033 12 10 9 9 6
2034 12 10 9 8 5
2035 12 10 9 8 5

Industrial Fuels combustion GHG emissions outlook, MT of CO2e

Industrial
Year B C D E F
2015 29 29 29 29 29
2016 29 29 29 29 29
2017 28 28 28 28 28
2018 28 27 27 27 27
2019 27 27 26 27 26
2020 27 26 26 26 25
2021 27 26 25 26 24
2022 26 26 25 25 24
2023 26 25 24 24 23
2024 25 24 23 23 22
2025 25 24 22 23 21
2026 25 23 22 22 19
2027 25 23 21 22 19
2028 24 22 21 21 18
2029 24 22 20 21 17
2030 24 22 20 20 16
2031 24 22 19 20 16
2032 24 21 19 19 15
2033 24 21 18 19 15
2034 24 21 18 19 14
2035 24 21 18 19 14

Note: Does not include emissions from industrial non-energy fuels demand.

Transportation Fuels combustion GHG emissions outlook, MT of CO2e

Transportation
Year B C D E F
2015 61 61 61 61 61
2016 62 62 62 61 61
2017 62 62 62 62 61
2018 63 63 63 62 61
2019 63 63 63 62 61
2020 64 64 64 62 60
2021 64 64 64 62 60
2022 64 63 63 61 59
2023 64 63 63 61 58
2024 64 63 63 60 57
2025 63 62 62 59 56
2026 63 62 62 59 55
2027 63 61 61 58 54
2028 63 61 61 57 53
2029 63 60 60 56 52
2030 63 60 60 56 52
2031 63 60 60 55 51
2032 63 59 59 54 49
2033 63 58 58 53 48
2034 63 58 58 53 47
2035 64 58 58 52 47