Ontario Demographic Quarterly: highlights of second quarter
Learn about Ontario’s economic performance and outlook for the second quarter of 2025.
Population growth
As of July 1, 2025, Ontario’s population reached 16,258,260, reflecting an increase of 1,722 residents during the second quarter of the year. This is the second consecutive quarter with minimal population growth in the province. In contrast, the second quarter of 2024 saw an increase of 98,263 people.
Among the provinces, Alberta (19,268) saw the highest growth and British Columbia (-2,154) experienced the only population decline in the second quarter of 2025, while the population of Canada as a whole grew by 47,098.
In the 12 months to July 1, 2025, Ontario’s population grew by 113,463 residents, reflecting an annual increase of 0.7 per cent. In the previous 12-month period, Ontario’s population had grown by 512,316 people or 3.3 per cent.
Ontario had the fourth slowest population growth rate in the 12 months to July 1, 2025, after British Columbia (0.5%), Newfoundland and Labrador (0.6%) and Quebec (0.7%). Canada’s population grew by 389,324 (0.9%) during the same period.
| Component | Q2 2024 | Q2 2025 | 12 months to July, 1 2024 | 12 months to July, 1 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural increase | 6,476 | 6,268 | 19,701 | 20,336 |
| Natural increase – Births | 35,995 | 36,422 | 141,761 | 144,954 |
| Natural increase – Deaths | 29,519 | 30,154 | 122,060 | 124,618 |
| Net migration | 91,787 | -4,546 | 492,615 | 93,127 |
| Migration – Net international migration | 106,855 | 1,608 | 535,304 | 110,906 |
| Migration – International migration – Immigration | 53,846 | 44,050 | 197,689 | 190,576 |
| Migration – International migration – Emigration* | 4,899 | 5,045 | 30,095 | 31,006 |
| Migration – International migration – Net change in non-permanent residents | 57,908 | -37,397 | 367,710 | -48,664 |
| Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Inflow | 105,765 | 49,695 | 563,494 | 259,076 |
| Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Outflow | 47,857 | 87,092 | 195,784 | 307,740 |
| Migration – Net interprovincial migration | -15,068 | -6,154 | -42,689 | -17,779 |
| Migration – Interprovincial migration – Inflow | 26,428 | 26,181 | 80,195 | 74,661 |
| Migration – Interprovincial migration – Outflow | 41,496 | 32,335 | 122,884 | 92,440 |
| Population Growth | 98,263 | 1,722 | 512,316 | 113,463 |
| Population Growth Rate | 3.3% | 0.7% |
Source: Statistics Canada. *Emigration refers to the net of emigration minus returning emigration.
Natural increase
There were 36,422 births during the second quarter of 2025, up from 35,995 in same quarter of 2024. The number of deaths also increased, reaching 30,154 in the second quarter of 2025, compared to 29,519 over the same period of the previous year.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 6,268 in the quarter, down from 6,476 in the same quarter of 2024.
International migration
There were 44,050 new immigrants to Ontario in the second quarter, down from 53,846 (-18%) in the same quarter of 2024. In the 12 months to July 1, 2025, there were 190,576 immigrants to the province, down from 197,689 in the previous year. Ontario received 43.8 per cent of all immigrants to Canada over this period, up from 42.6 per cent in the previous year.
There were 5,045 emigrants in the second quarter, compared to 4,899 in the same quarter of 2024.
The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario decreased by 37,397 in the second quarter of 2025, following declines of 14,011 and 34,301 in the previous two quarters. Since October 1, 2024, the number of non-permanent residents in Ontario declined by 85,709 or 5.8 per cent.
The number of asylum claimants and protected persons living in the province increased by 8,177 in the second quarter.
Holders of work permits fell by 11,667, holders of a study permit declined by 18,322, and the number of those holding both a study and a work permit decreased by 12,534.
As of July 2025, there were 1,390,350 non-permanent residents living in Ontario, representing a decrease of 48,664 (-3.4%) over the previous 12 months.
| Net Change by Category | Q2 2024 | Q2 2025 | 12 months to July, 1 2024 | 12 months to July, 1 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asylum Claimants | 18,285 | 8,177 | 70,527 | 50,074 |
| Holders of Work Permit Only | 22,363 | -11,667 | 183,792 | 41,798 |
| Holders of Study Permit Only | 553 | -18,322 | 40,741 | -84,171 |
| Holders of Both Work & Study Permit | 15,305 | -12,534 | 50,110 | -52,019 |
| Other | 1,402 | -3,051 | 22,540 | -4,346 |
| Total Net Change | 57,908 | -37,397 | 367,710 | -48,664 |
| Number of People as of: | July 1, 2023 | July 1, 2024 | July 1, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asylum Claimants | 120,011 | 190,538 | 240,612 |
| Holders of Work Permit Only | 466,267 | 650,059 | 691,857 |
| Holders of Study Permit Only | 284,256 | 324,997 | 240,826 |
| Holders of Both Work & Study Permit | 161,596 | 211,706 | 159,687 |
| Other | 39,174 | 61,714 | 57,368 |
| Total | 1,071,304 | 1,439,014 | 1,390,350 |
| Change from Previous Year | +43.5% | +34.3% | -3.4% |
Source: Statistics Canada.
Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 1,608 in the second quarter, down from a net gain of 106,855 in the same quarter of 2024. Net international migration is the sum of all new immigrants during the quarter, minus the number of emigrants, plus the net change in non-permanent residents.
Interprovincial migration
In the second quarter of 2025, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 6,154 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 15,068 people in the same quarter of 2024. In the 12 months to July 1, 2025, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 17,779. While this net loss is above the average for the last 10 years, it is the smallest net loss recorded in the last five years.
Ontario Demographic Factsheet
| Region | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 34,339 | 36,111 | 38,240 | 40,049 | 41,262 | 41,652 |
| Ontario | 13,262 | 13,877 | 14,842 | 15,632 | 16,145 | 16,258 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 38.6 | 38.4 | 38.8 | 39.0 | 39.1 | 39.0 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 0.7 |
| Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 41,340 | 42,776 | 44,426 | 46,109 | 47,890 | 49,746 |
| Ontario | 16,232 | 16,793 | 17,649 | 18,558 | 19,528 | 20,542 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 39.3 | 39.3 | 39.7 | 40.2 | 40.8 | 41.3 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | -0.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Age group | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| 5–14 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| 15–24 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 12.5 |
| 25–44 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 27.6 | 28.8 | 29.5 | 29.6 |
| 45–64 | 28.4 | 28.1 | 26.6 | 25.2 | 24.6 | 24.4 |
| 65–74 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.4 |
| 75+ | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.5 |
| Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| 5–14 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.9 |
| 15–24 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.4 | 11.0 | 10.8 |
| 25–44 | 29.3 | 29.2 | 29.2 | 28.7 | 28.5 | 28.3 |
| 45–64 | 24.1 | 23.1 | 23.3 | 24.4 | 25.1 | 25.4 |
| 65–74 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 9.3 |
| 75+ | 8.8 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 13.2 | 13.0 |
| Age group | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 16.6 | 16.1 | 15.5 | 14.9 | 14.7 | 14.6 |
| 15–64 | 69.1 | 67.6 | 66.5 | 66.8 | 67.0 | 66.5 |
| 65+ | 14.2 | 16.3 | 18.0 | 18.3 | 18.4 | 18.9 |
| Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 14.5 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.1 |
| 15–64 | 66.1 | 64.6 | 64.3 | 64.5 | 64.6 | 64.5 |
| 65+ | 19.5 | 21.7 | 22.5 | 22.6 | 22.4 | 22.4 |
| Other characteristic | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%) | 60.3 | 62.6 | 64.2 | 63.7 | 63.1 | 63.9 |
| Median age (years) | 39.8 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 39.9 | 39.6 | 39.9 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 46-65 | 51-70 | 56-75 | 58-77 | 59-78 | 60-79 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.57 | 1.52 | 1.37 | 1.22 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 84.1 | 84.4 | 84.3 | 84.5 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 79.9 | 80.4 | 79.6 | 80.1 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Families (000s) | 3,722 | 3,818 | 4,017 | 4,169 | 4,260 | n.a. |
| Households (000s) | 5,062 | 5,318 | 5,741 | 6,014 | 6,175 | n.a. |
| Other characteristic | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%) | 65.4 | 69.1 | 69.0 | 68.0 | 67.0 | 67.2 |
| Median age (years) | 39.1 | 40.3 | 41.2 | 41.9 | 42.1 | 42.4 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 61-80 | 66-85 | 71-90 | 76-95 | 81-100 | 86-105 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.22 |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 84.1 | 85.6 | 86.2 | 86.6 | 87.4 | 88.0 |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 80.6 | 81.5 | 82.3 | 83.1 | 83.8 | 84.6 |
| Families (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Households (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Region | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 47.2 | 47.8 | 47.2 | 47.3 | 47.6 | n.a. |
| Central | 21.6 | 21.6 | 22.1 | 22.2 | 22.1 | n.a. |
| Eastern | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 13.1 | n.a. |
| Southwestern | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.8 | n.a. |
| Northeastern | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | n.a. |
| Northwestern | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | n.a. |
| Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 46.9 | 46.1 | 45.7 | 45.6 | 45.5 | 45.6 |
| Central | 22.4 | 22.9 | 23.1 | 23.3 | 23.3 | 23.4 |
| Eastern | 13.3 | 13.7 | 13.8 | 13.9 | 14.0 | 14.1 |
| Southwestern | 11.9 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| Northeastern | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Northwestern | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Period | Population, beginning of period | Total change | Births | Deaths | Natural increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 11,897 | 764 | 666 | 418 | 249 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 12,662 | 600 | 709 | 442 | 268 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 13,262 | 614 | 706 | 471 | 234 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 13,877 | 966 | 701 | 543 | 157 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 14,842 | 313 | 139 | 121 | 18 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 15,156 | 477 | 135 | 123 | 12 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 15,632 | 512 | 142 | 122 | 20 |
| Annual: 2024–25 | 16,145 | 113 | 145 | 125 | 20 |
| Period | Immigrants | Net emigrants | Net NPRs | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 653 | 125 | 44 | 573 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 558 | 104 | 58 | 512 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 519 | 123 | 87 | 484 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 605 | 75 | 221 | 751 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 227 | 22 | 121 | 326 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 199 | 30 | 325 | 494 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 198 | 30 | 368 | 535 |
| Annual: 2024–25 | 191 | 31 | -49 | 111 |
| Period | In | Out | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 307 | 336 | -30 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 296 | 355 | -59 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 307 | 346 | -39 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 340 | 326 | 14 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 77 | 108 | -31 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 77 | 106 | -30 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 69 | 112 | -43 |
| Annual: 2024–25 | 65 | 83 | -18 |
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.
Other Demographics Reports
Footnotes
- footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada’s population estimates are based on the 2021 Census.
- footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance, except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
- footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
- footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
- footnote[5] Back to paragraph In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.