Ontario Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of third quarter
Learn about key facts and figures of the province's demographics for the third quarter of 2025.
Demographic Change
As of October 1, 2025, Ontario’s population reached 16,191,372, reflecting a decrease of 66,888 residents during the third quarter of the year. This is the first quarterly population decline since the pandemic. In contrast, the third quarter of 2024 saw an increase of 83,355 people.
All other provinces also experienced population declines in the third quarter, except Alberta (+11,525). The population of Canada as a whole fell by 76,068.
In the 12 months to October 1, 2025, Ontario’s population declined by 36,780 residents, reflecting an annual decrease of 0.2 per cent. In the previous 12-month period, Ontario’s population had grown by 404,196 people or 2.6 per cent.
Ontario and British Columbia (-0.2%) were the only two provinces to see population declines in the 12 months to October 1, 2025, while Prince Edward Island (+0.9%) and Alberta (+1.7%) grew fastest.
| Component | Q3 2024 | Q3 2025 | 12 months to October, 1 2024 | 12 months to October, 1 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural increase | 8,636 | 7,674 | 20,693 | 19,374 |
| Natural increase – Births | 37,800 | 38,147 | 143,337 | 145,301 |
| Natural increase – Deaths | 29,164 | 30,473 | 122,644 | 125,927 |
| Net migration | 74,719 | -74,562 | 383,503 | -56,154 |
| Migration – Net international migration | 78,942 | -73,590 | 421,024 | -41,626 |
| Migration – International migration – Immigration | 51,324 | 43,205 | 201,852 | 182,457 |
| Migration – International migration – Emigration* | 9,427 | 9,515 | 30,372 | 31,094 |
| Migration – International migration – Net change in non-permanent residents | 37,045 | -107,280 | 249,544 | -192,989 |
| Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Inflow | 107,180 | 59,839 | 466,995 | 211,735 |
| Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Outflow | 70,135 | 167,119 | 217,451 | 404,724 |
| Migration – Net interprovincial migration | -4,223 | -972 | -37,521 | -14,528 |
| Migration – Interprovincial migration – Inflow | 18,651 | 19,510 | 77,098 | 75,520 |
| Migration – Interprovincial migration – Outflow | 22,874 | 20,482 | 114,619 | 90,048 |
| Population Growth | 83,355 | -66,888 | 404,196 | -36,780 |
| Population Growth Rate | 2.6% | -0.2% |
Source: Statistics Canada. *Emigration refers to the net of emigration minus returning emigration.
Natural increase
There were 38,147 births during the third quarter of 2025, up from 37,800 in same quarter of 2024. The number of deaths also increased, reaching 30,473 in the third quarter of 2025, compared to 29,164 over the same period of the previous year.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 7,674 in the quarter, down from 8,636 in the same quarter of 2024.
International migration
There were 43,205 new immigrants to Ontario in the third quarter, down from 51,324 (-16%) in the same quarter of 2024. In the 12 months to October 1, 2025, there were 182,457 immigrants to the province, down from 201,852 in the previous year. Ontario received 44.1 per cent of all immigrants to Canada over this period, up from 42.0 per cent in the previous year.
There were 9,515 emigrants in the third quarter, compared to 9,427 in the same quarter of 2024.
The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario decreased by 107,280 in the third quarter of 2025, following declines totaling 85,709 in the previous three quarters. Since October 1, 2024, the number of non-permanent residents in Ontario declined by 192,989 or 13.1 per cent. As of October 1, 2025, there were 1,283,070 non-permanent residents living in Ontario.
The number of asylum claimants and protected persons living in the province increased by 2,034 in the third quarter.
Holders of work permits fell by 14,904, holders of a study permit declined by 47,511, and the number of those holding both a study and a work permit decreased by 43,447.
| Net Change by Category | Q3 2024 | Q3 2025 | 12 months to October, 1 2024 | 12 months to October, 1 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asylum Claimants | 16,640 | 2,034 | 73,149 | 35,468 |
| Holders of Work Permit Only | 62,734 | -14,904 | 162,404 | -35,840 |
| Holders of Study Permit Only | -17,438 | -47,511 | -15,324 | -114,244 |
| Holders of Both Work & Study Permit | -26,734 | -43,447 | 10,871 | -68,732 |
| Other | 1,843 | -3,452 | 18,444 | -9,641 |
| Total Net Change | 37,045 | -107,280 | 249,544 | -192,989 |
| Number of People as of: | October 1, 2023 | October 1, 2024 | October 1, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asylum Claimants | 134,029 | 207,178 | 242,646 |
| Holders of Work Permit Only | 550,389 | 712,793 | 676,953 |
| Holders of Study Permit Only | 322,883 | 307,559 | 193,315 |
| Holders of Both Work & Study Permit | 174,101 | 184,972 | 116,240 |
| Other | 45,113 | 63,557 | 53,916 |
| Total | 1,226,515 | 1,476,059 | 1,283,070 |
| Change from Previous Year | +43.7% | +20.3% | -13.1% |
Source: Statistics Canada.
Overall, there was a net international migration loss of 73,590 in the third quarter, down from a net gain of 78,942 in the same quarter of 2024. Net international migration is the sum of all new immigrants during the quarter, minus the number of emigrants, plus the net change in non-permanent residents.
Interprovincial migration
In the third quarter of 2025, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 972 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 4,223 people in the same quarter of 2024. In the 12 months to October 1, 2025, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 14,528. While this net loss is above the average for the last 10 years, it is the smallest net loss recorded in the last five years.
Ontario Demographic Factsheet
| Region | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 34,339 | 36,111 | 38,240 | 40,049 | 41,262 | 41,652 |
| Ontario | 13,262 | 13,877 | 14,842 | 15,632 | 16,145 | 16,258 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 38.6 | 38.4 | 38.8 | 39.0 | 39.1 | 39.0 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 0.7 |
| Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 41,340 | 42,776 | 44,426 | 46,109 | 47,890 | 49,746 |
| Ontario | 16,232 | 16,793 | 17,649 | 18,558 | 19,528 | 20,542 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 39.3 | 39.3 | 39.7 | 40.2 | 40.8 | 41.3 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | -0.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Age group | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| 5–14 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| 15–24 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 12.5 |
| 25–44 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 27.6 | 28.8 | 29.5 | 29.6 |
| 45–64 | 28.4 | 28.1 | 26.6 | 25.2 | 24.6 | 24.4 |
| 65–74 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.4 |
| 75+ | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.5 |
| Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| 5–14 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.9 |
| 15–24 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.4 | 11.0 | 10.8 |
| 25–44 | 29.3 | 29.2 | 29.2 | 28.7 | 28.5 | 28.3 |
| 45–64 | 24.1 | 23.1 | 23.3 | 24.4 | 25.1 | 25.4 |
| 65–74 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 9.3 |
| 75+ | 8.8 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 13.2 | 13.0 |
| Age group | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 16.6 | 16.1 | 15.5 | 14.9 | 14.7 | 14.6 |
| 15–64 | 69.1 | 67.6 | 66.5 | 66.8 | 67.0 | 66.5 |
| 65+ | 14.2 | 16.3 | 18.0 | 18.3 | 18.4 | 18.9 |
| Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 14.5 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.1 |
| 15–64 | 66.1 | 64.6 | 64.3 | 64.5 | 64.6 | 64.5 |
| 65+ | 19.5 | 21.7 | 22.5 | 22.6 | 22.4 | 22.4 |
| Other characteristic | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%) | 60.3 | 62.6 | 64.2 | 63.7 | 63.1 | 63.9 |
| Median age (years) | 39.8 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 39.9 | 39.6 | 39.9 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 46-65 | 51-70 | 56-75 | 58-77 | 59-78 | 60-79 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.57 | 1.52 | 1.37 | 1.22 | 1.21 | n.a. |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 84.1 | 84.4 | 84.3 | 84.5 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 79.9 | 80.4 | 79.6 | 80.1 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Families (000s) | 3,722 | 3,818 | 4,017 | 4,166 | 4,289 | 4,327 |
| Households (000s) | 5,062 | 5,318 | 5,741 | 6,010 | 6,216 | 6,285 |
| Other characteristic | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%) | 65.4 | 69.1 | 69.0 | 68.0 | 67.0 | 67.2 |
| Median age (years) | 39.1 | 40.3 | 41.2 | 41.9 | 42.1 | 42.4 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 61-80 | 66-85 | 71-90 | 76-95 | 81-100 | 86-105 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.22 |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 84.1 | 85.6 | 86.2 | 86.6 | 87.4 | 88.0 |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 80.6 | 81.5 | 82.3 | 83.1 | 83.8 | 84.6 |
| Families (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Households (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Region | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 47.2 | 47.8 | 47.2 | 47.3 | 47.6 | n.a. |
| Central | 21.6 | 21.6 | 22.1 | 22.2 | 22.1 | n.a. |
| Eastern | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 13.1 | n.a. |
| Southwestern | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.8 | n.a. |
| Northeastern | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | n.a. |
| Northwestern | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | n.a. |
| Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 46.9 | 46.1 | 45.7 | 45.6 | 45.5 | 45.6 |
| Central | 22.4 | 22.9 | 23.1 | 23.3 | 23.3 | 23.4 |
| Eastern | 13.3 | 13.7 | 13.8 | 13.9 | 14.0 | 14.1 |
| Southwestern | 11.9 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| Northeastern | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Northwestern | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Period | Population, beginning of period | Total change | Births | Deaths | Natural increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 11,897 | 764 | 666 | 418 | 249 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 12,662 | 600 | 709 | 442 | 268 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 13,262 | 614 | 706 | 471 | 234 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 13,877 | 966 | 701 | 543 | 157 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 14,842 | 313 | 139 | 121 | 18 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 15,156 | 477 | 135 | 123 | 12 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 15,632 | 512 | 142 | 122 | 20 |
| Annual: 2024–25 | 16,145 | 113 | 145 | 125 | 20 |
| Period | Immigrants | Net emigrants | Net NPRs | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 653 | 125 | 44 | 573 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 558 | 104 | 58 | 512 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 519 | 123 | 87 | 484 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 605 | 75 | 221 | 751 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 227 | 22 | 121 | 326 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 199 | 30 | 325 | 494 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 198 | 30 | 368 | 535 |
| Annual: 2024–25 | 191 | 31 | -49 | 111 |
| Period | In | Out | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 307 | 336 | -30 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 296 | 355 | -59 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 307 | 346 | -39 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 340 | 326 | 14 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 77 | 108 | -31 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 77 | 106 | -30 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 69 | 112 | -43 |
| Annual: 2024–25 | 65 | 83 | -18 |
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.
Other Demographics Reports
Footnotes
- footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada’s population estimates are based on the 2021 Census.
- footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance, except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
- footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
- footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
- footnote[5] Back to paragraph In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.