Population growth

Ontario’s population reached 14,733,119 on October 1, 2020, with a decrease of 895 people during the third quarter of 2020. This compares to an increase of 93,162 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Population growth, Ontario, Q3 2020
Item Amount (in thousands)
Population, July 1, 2020 14,734.0
Plus Births 38.7
Minus Deaths 25.3
Plus Immigrants 17.2
Minus Emigrants footnote 1 0.5
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents -31.0
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals 17.4
Minus Interprovincial Departures 17.5
Population, October 1, 2020 14,733.1

Births and deaths

There were 38,654 births during the third quarter of 2020, an increase of 2.5% from the same quarter of 2019. The number of deaths decreased by 1.1% to reach 25,327.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 13,327 in the quarter, up slightly from 12,101 in the same quarter of 2019.

International migration

Immigration to Ontario was 17,232 in the quarter, down substantially from 45,942 in the same quarter of 2019. Ontario received 43.0% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 44.3% in the same quarter of 2019. Over the 12 months to September 30, Ontario received 98,481 immigrants, down from 151,802 during the previous year.

There were 457 emigrants from Ontario in the third quarter, down from 2,577 during the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 31.3% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non‑permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers and refugee claimants) decreased by 30,960 to about 580,000 in the quarter.

In summary, there was a net international migration loss of 14,185 in the third quarter, down significantly from a net gain of 77,602 in the same quarter of 2019.

components of population growth, Q3 2020 and average for (2015-2019)
Accessible description of chart

Interprovincial migration

In the third quarter of 2020, Ontario had a net outflow of 37 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net gain of 3,459 people in the same quarter of 2019. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with 7 of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net gains from Saskatchewan (966) and Manitoba (641). The largest net losses were to British Columbia (-869) and Nova Scotia (-745). Over the 12 months to September 30, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 3,133, compared to a net gain of 4,970 during the previous year.

Year-over-year growth

Over the 12 months to September 30, Ontario’s population grew by 95,239 or 0.7%, lower than growth of 244,197 (1.7%) during the previous year. Among the provinces, Ontario had the third fastest population growth rate, after Alberta (1.0%) and Prince Edward Island (0.9%). Canada’s population grew at a rate of 0.5% over the period.

For more information contact Alex Munger 437-242-7697.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

Population (000s) - Estimates footnote 2
Region 2006 2011 2016 2018 2019 2020
Canada 32,571 34,339 36,109 37,065 37,593 38,005
Ontario 12,662 13,261 13,875 14,309 14,545 14,734
Ontario as % of Canada 38.9 38.6 38.4 38.6 38.7 38.8
Ontario average annual growth rate
(Over previous year shown)
1.3 0.9 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.3
Population (000s) - MOF Projections footnote 3
Region 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Canada 38,285 40,315 42,271 44,115 45,844 47,479
Ontario 14,936 15,871 16,684 17,497 18,319 19,157
Ontario as % of Canada 39.0 39.4 39.5 39.7 40.0 40.3
Ontario average annual growth rate
(Over previous year shown)
1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
Age distribution (%) - Estimates footnote 2
Age group 2006 2011 2016 2018 2019 2020
0–4 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.9
5–14 12.3 11.2 11.0 10.8 10.7 10.6
15–24 13.8 13.7 12.9 13.0 13.0 12.8
25–44 29.4 27.1 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.4
45–64 26.0 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.1 26.7
65–74 6.9 7.6 9.2 9.6 9.8 10.0
75+ 6.2 6.6 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.6
Age distribution (%) - MOF Projections footnote 3
Age group 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
0–4 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9
5–14 10.5 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9
15–24 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.3 12.4 12.4
25–44 27.3 27.7 27.3 26.7 25.9 25.6
45–64 26.4 24.4 23.0 23.1 23.6 23.9
65–74 10.2 11.0 11.6 10.8 9.7 9.3
75+ 7.8 9.1 10.6 12.3 13.6 14.0
Selected age groups (%) - Estimates footnote 2
Age group 2006 2011 2016 2018 2019 2020
0–14 17.8 16.6 16.1 15.8 15.6 15.5
15–64 69.2 69.1 67.6 67.3 67.1 66.9
65+ 13.0 14.2 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.6
Selected age groups (%) - MOF Projections footnote 3
Age group 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
0–14 15.5 15.1 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.8
15–64 66.5 64.8 62.9 62.1 61.9 61.9
65+ 18.0 20.2 22.2 23.1 23.4 23.3
Other characteristics - Estimates footnote 2
Other characteristic 2006 2011 2016 2018 2019 2020
Total dependency ratio (%) footnote 4 60.6 60.4 62.6 63.2 63.3 63.6
Median age (years) 38.4 39.8 40.7 40.6 40.5 40.4
Age span of baby boom (years) 41-60 46-65 51-70 52-71 53-72 54-73
Total fertility rate footnote 5 1.52 1.52 1.46 1.44 N/A N/A
Female life expectancy at birth (years) footnote 5 83.1 84.0 84.4 84.5 N/A N/A
Male life expectancy at birth (years) footnote 5 78.8 79.8 80.4 80.3 N/A N/A
Families (000s) 3,539 3,722 3,832 3,953 3,990 4,030
Households (000s) footnote 6 4,555 4,888 5,169 N/A N/A N/A
Other characteristics - MOF Projections footnote 3
Other characteristic 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Total dependency ratio (%) footnote 4 64.8 69.7 74.7 77.0 77.7 77.6
Median age (years) 40.5 40.8 41.5 42.2 42.7 42.8
Age span of baby boom (years) 56-75 61-80 66-85 71-90 76-95 81-100
Total fertility rate footnote 5 1.46 1.44 1.45 1.48 1.51 1.55
Female life expectancy at birth (years) footnote 5 84.7 85.4 86.2 86.9 87.6 88.2
Male life expectancy at birth (years) footnote 5 80.8 81.8 82.8 83.8 84.7 85.5
Families (000s) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Households (000s) footnote 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Regional distribution (%) - Estimates footnote 2
Region 2006 2011 2016 2018 2019 2020
Greater Toronto Area 45.8 47.2 47.8 47.9 47.9 N/A
Central 22.0 21.6 21.6 21.7 21.7 N/A
Eastern 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 N/A
Southwestern 12.6 12.0 11.7 11.7 11.7 N/A
Northeastern 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 N/A
Northwestern 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 N/A
Regional distribution (%) - MOF Projections footnote 3
Region 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Greater Toronto Area 48.0 48.4 48.8 49.1 49.5 49.8
Central 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.1
Eastern 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.7
Southwestern 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.1 11.0
Northeastern 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0
Northwestern 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3
Components of change (000s) footnote 7  — year beginning July 1
Period Population,
beginning of period
Total change Births Deaths Natural increase
Five-Year: 2001–06 11,898 764 658 418 240
Five-Year: 2006–11 12,662 600 697 441 256
Five-Year: 2011–16 13,261 614 702 471 231
Annual: 2016–17 13,875 195 141 102 39
Annual: 2017–18 14,070 239 141 107 34
Annual: 2018–19 14,309 236 140 109 31
Annual: 2019–20 14,545 189 143 115 28
Components of change (000s) footnote 7  — year beginning July 1 International migration
Period Immigrants Net emigrants Net NPRs Net
Five-Year: 2001–06 653 125 44 573
Five-Year: 2006–11 558 104 57 511
Five-Year: 2011–16 519 123 85 481
Annual: 2016–17 98 19 63 142
Annual: 2017–18 132 16 78 194
Annual: 2018–19 139 16 75 198
Annual: 2019–20 127 9 43 161
Components of change (000s) footnote 7  — year beginning July 1
Interprovincial migration
Period In Out Net
Five-Year: 2001–06 307 336 -30
Five-Year: 2006–11 296 355 -59
Five-Year: 2011–16 307 346 -39
Annual: 2016–17 72 58 13
Annual: 2017–18 70 60 10
Annual: 2018–19 67 60 7
Annual: 2019–20 70 70 0

Note: All population figures are for July 1st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

December  17, 2020
Office of Economic Policy


Accessible Image Description:

This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the third quarter of 2020 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2015-2019). In the third quarter of 2020, births and deaths were higher than the average of third quarters of the previous five years, while immigration, emigration, net interprovincial migration and the net change in the number of non-permanent residents were lower.

Return to chart


Footnotes

  • footnote[1] Back to paragraph Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
    Source: Statistics Canada.
  • footnote[2] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada's population estimates based on the 2016 Census.
  • footnote[3] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Summer 2020), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
  • footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
  • footnote[5] Back to paragraph Total Fertility Rate estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).
  • footnote[6] Back to paragraph Households are Census data.
  • footnote[7] Back to paragraph In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.
Updated: August 17, 2021
Published: December 15, 2020