Ontario Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of third quarter

Learn about key facts and figures of the province's demographics for the third quarter of 2024.

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Population growth

Ontario’s population reached 16,171,802 on October 1, 2024, with an increase of 47,686 residents during the third quarter of 2024. This compares to an increase of 195,258 people recorded in the same quarter of 2023.

Over the 12 months to October 1, 2024, the provincial population grew by 353,337 residents, an annual increase of 2.2 per cent. Over the previous 12-month period to October 1, 2023, Ontario’s population had grown by 528,915 people or 3.5 per cent.

Among the provinces, Ontario had the fourth highest population growth rate during the 12 months to October 1, 2024, after Alberta (3.9%), Manitoba (2.4%) and B.C. (2.2%). Canada’s population grew by 951,517 (2.3%) over the period.

Components of Demographic Change for Ontario
Component	Q3 2023	Q3 2024	12 Months to October 1, 2023	12 Months to October 1, 2024
Natural increase	5,544	6,688	7,292	11,306
Natural increase – Births	36,125	38,123	134,800	142,716
Natural increase – Deaths	30,581	31,435	127,508	131,410
Net migration	189,714	40,998	521,623	342,031
Migration – Net international migration	194,806	45,249	550,554	366,463
Migration – International migration – Immigration	47,161	51,292	196,361	201,788
Migration – International migration – Emigration^*	4,211	4,336	23,794	24,498
Migration – International migration – Net change in non-permanent residents	151,856	-1,707	377,987	189,173
Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Inflow	207,606	114,777	551,968	476,973
Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Outflow	55,750	116,484	173,981	287,800
Migration – Net interprovincial migration	-5,092	-4,251	-28,931	-24,432
Migration – Interprovincial migration – Inflow	20,808	18,664	83,139	74,872
Migration – Interprovincial migration – Outflow	25,900	22,915	112,070	99,304
Population Growth	195,258	47,686	528,915	353,337
Population Growth Rate			3.5%	2.2%

Source: Statistics Canada. *Emigration refers to the net of emigration minus returning emigration.

Natural increase

There were 38,123 births during the third quarter of 2024, up from 36,125 in same quarter of 2023. The number of deaths also increased, reaching 31,435 in the third quarter of 2024, compared to 30,581 over the same period of the previous year.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 6,688 in the quarter, up from 5,544 in the same quarter of 2023.

International migration

There were 51,292 new immigrants to Ontario in the third quarter, up from 47,161 in the same quarter of 2023. Over the 12 months to October 1, 2024, 201,788 immigrants settled in the province, up from 196,361 in the previous year. Ontario received 42.0 per cent of all immigrants to Canada over this period, down from 43.2 per cent in the previous year.

There were 4,336 emigrants in the third quarter, compared to 4,211 in the same quarter of 2023.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario decreased by 1,707 in the third quarter of 2024. The number of asylum claimants living in the province increased by 16,221 in that quarter. Holders of a work permit rose by 28,138, holders of a study permit declined by 20,688, and the number of those holding both a study and a work permit decreased by 24,633.

There were 1,375,824 non-permanent residents living in Ontario on October 1, 2024, an increase of 189,173, or 15.9 per cent, over the previous 12 months.

Net Change in the Number of Non-Permanent Residents in Ontario
Net Change by Category	Q3 2023	Q3 2024	12 Months to October 1, 2023	12 Months to October 1, 2024
Asylum Claimants	13,995	16,221	42,249	72,688
Holders of Work Permit Only	73,808	28,138	199,442	114,141
Holders of Study Permit Only	43,608	-20,688	70,140	-25,794
Holders of Both Work & Study Permit	14,469	-24,633	49,284	10,894
Other	5,976	-745	16,872	17,244
Total Net Change	151,856	-1,707	377,987	189,173

Non-Permanent Residents Living in Ontario
Number of People as of:	October 1, 2022	October 1, 2023	October 1, 2024
Asylum Claimants	91,855	134,104	206,792
Holders of Work Permit Only	302,095	501,537	615,678
Holders of Study Permit Only	259,915	330,055	304,261
Holders of Both Work & Study Permit	125,500	174,784	185,678
Other	29,299	46,171	63,415
Total	808,664	1,186,651	1,375,824
Change from Previous Year	+27.6%	+46.7%	+15.9%

Source: Statistics Canada.

Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 45,249 in the third quarter, down from a net gain of 194,806 in the same quarter of 2023. Net international migration is the sum of all new immigrants during the quarter, minus the number of emigrants, plus the net change in non-permanent residents.

Interprovincial migration

In the third quarter of 2024, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 4,251 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 5,092 people in the same quarter of 2023. In the past year, net outflows from Ontario to other provinces and territories were about 30 per cent smaller than during the peak loss coming out of the pandemic and the improvement continued in the third quarter. Notable improvements have been recorded in migration to Quebec, British Columbia, Alberta, and Atlantic Canada. The largest net gains were from Quebec (+902) and Saskatchewan (+144). The largest net losses were to Alberta (-4,369) and Nova Scotia (-341). Over the 12 months to October 1, 2024, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 24,432, compared to a net loss of 28,931 during the previous year.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

Population (000s) - Estimates^{footnote 1[1]}
Region	2011	2016	2021	2022	2023	2024
Canada	34,339	36,111	38,240	38,936	40,083	41,289
Ontario	13,262	13,877	14,842	15,141	15,623	16,124
Ontario as % of Canada	38.6	38.4	38.8	38.9	39.0	39.1
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	0.9	0.9	1.4	2.0	3.2	3.2

Population (000s) - MOF Projections ^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046	2051
Canada	41,665	43,933	46,352	48,651	50,837	52,905
Ontario	16,445	16,900	17,737	18,673	19,706	20,805
Ontario as % of Canada	39.5	38.5	38.3	38.4	38.8	39.3
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	1.0	0.5	1.0	1.0	1.1	1.1

Age distribution (%) - Estimates^{footnote 1[1]}
Age group	2011	2016	2021	2022	2023	2024
0–4	5.4	5.2	4.9	4.7	4.6	4.4
5–14	11.2	11.0	10.7	10.6	10.4	10.2
15–24	13.7	13.0	12.2	12.4	12.7	13.0
25–44	27.1	26.5	27.6	28.0	28.8	29.5
45–64	28.4	28.1	26.6	26.0	25.2	24.6
65–74	7.6	9.2	10.3	10.3	10.2	10.2
75+	6.6	7.1	7.7	8.0	8.1	8.1

Age distribution (%) - MOF Projections^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046	2051
0–4	4.4	4.3	4.3	4.3	4.4	4.5
5–14	10.0	9.6	9.2	9.0	9.0	9.2
15–24	13.0	12.5	12.1	11.6	11.3	11.2
25–44	29.6	29.2	29.1	28.6	28.4	28.3
45–64	23.9	23.0	23.2	24.1	24.7	24.9
65–74	10.6	11.3	10.6	9.5	9.1	9.2
75+	8.6	10.1	11.6	12.8	13.0	12.8

Selected age groups (%) - Estimates^{footnote 1[1]}
Age group	2011	2016	2021	2022	2023	2024
0–14	16.6	16.1	15.5	15.3	14.9	14.5
15–64	69.1	67.6	66.5	66.5	66.7	67.1
65+	14.2	16.3	18.0	18.3	18.3	18.3

Selected age groups (%) - MOF Projections^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046	2051
0–14	14.4	13.9	13.5	13.3	13.4	13.6
15–64	66.4	64.7	64.3	64.3	64.5	64.3
65+	19.2	21.5	22.3	22.3	22.1	22.0

Other characteristics - Estimates^{footnote 1[1]}
Other characteristic	2011	2016	2021	2022	2023	2024
Total dependency ratio (%)^{footnote 3[3]}	60.3	62.6	64.2	64.5	63.7	63.0
Median age (years)	39.8	40.7	40.7	40.4	39.9	39.6
Age span of baby boom (years)	46-65	51-70	56-75	57-76	58-77	59-78
Total fertility rate^{footnote 4[4]}	1.57	1.52	1.37	1.27	1.22	n.a.
Female life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	84.1	84.4	84.3	84.1	84.5	n.a.
Male life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	79.9	80.4	79.6	79.6	80.1	n.a.
Families (000s)	3,722	3,818	4,017	4,070	4,169	4,260
Households (000s)^{footnote 5[5]}	5,062	5,318	5,741	5,840	6,014	6,175

Other characteristics - MOF Projections^{footnote 2[2]}
Other characteristic	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046	2051
Total dependency ratio (%)^{footnote 3[3]}	64.6	68.9	69.3	68.6	67.9	68.1
Median age (years)	39.8	41.0	41.9	42.5	42.6	42.8
Age span of baby boom (years)	61-80	66-85	71-90	76-95	81-100	86-105
Total fertility rate^{footnote 4[4]}	1.18	1.18	1.21	1.23	1.26	1.28
Female life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	84.6	85.4	86.1	86.7	87.4	88.0
Male life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	80.4	81.3	82.2	83.0	83.9	84.6
Families (000s)	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Households (000s)^{footnote 5[5]}	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.

Regional distribution (%) - Estimates^{footnote 1[1]}
Region	2011	2016	2021	2022	2023	2024
Greater Toronto Area	47.2	47.8	47.2	47.0	47.3	47.6
Central	21.6	21.6	22.1	22.2	22.2	22.1
Eastern	13.2	13.1	13.3	13.3	13.2	13.1
Southwestern	12.0	11.7	11.9	12.0	11.9	11.8
Northeastern	4.3	4.1	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.8
Northwestern	1.8	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.6	1.6

Regional distribution (%) - MOF Projections^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046	2051
Greater Toronto Area	46.8	46.6	46.6	46.7	46.9	47.0
Central	22.6	22.8	22.9	23.0	23.0	23.1
Eastern	13.2	13.5	13.5	13.6	13.6	13.6
Southwestern	12.1	12.0	12.0	12.0	11.9	11.9
Northeastern	3.8	3.7	3.5	3.4	3.3	3.2
Northwestern	1.5	1.5	1.4	1.4	1.3	1.3

Components of change (000s) — year beginning July 1
Period	Population, beginning of period	Total change	Births	Deaths	Natural increase
Five-Year: 2001–06	11,897	764	666	418	249
Five-Year: 2006–11	12,662	600	709	442	268
Five-Year: 2011–16	13,262	614	706	471	234
Five-Year: 2016–21	13,877	966	701	543	157
Annual: 2021–22	14,842	299	138	120	18
Annual: 2022–23	15,141	482	135	127	8
Annual: 2023–24	15,623	501	141	131	10

Components of change (000s) — year beginning July 1
International migration
Period	Immigrants	Net emigrants	Net NPRs	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	653	125	44	573
Five-Year: 2006–11	558	104	58	512
Five-Year: 2011–16	519	123	87	484
Five-Year: 2016–21	605	75	221	751
Annual: 2021–22	227	22	107	312
Annual: 2022–23	199	24	328	503
Annual: 2023–24	198	24	343	516

Components of change (000s) — year beginning July 1
Interprovincial migration
Period	In	Out	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	307	336	-30
Five-Year: 2006–11	296	355	-59
Five-Year: 2011–16	307	346	-39
Five-Year: 2016–21	340	326	14
Annual: 2021–22	77	108	-31
Annual: 2022–23	77	106	-30
Annual: 2023–24	87	92	-25

Note: All population figures are for July 1^st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

Other Demographics Reports

Updated: May 07, 2025

Published: December 29, 2020

Footnotes

footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada’s population estimates are based on the 2021 Census.
footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance, except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
footnote[5] Back to paragraph In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.