Ontario Demographic Quarterly: highlights of fourth quarter
Learn about Ontario’s economic performance and outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025.
Demographic Change
As of January 1, 2026, Ontario’s population reached 16,136,480, reflecting a decrease of 54,892 residents during the fourth quarter of the year. This was the second consecutive quarterly population decline, following a decrease of 66,888 in the third quarter. In contrast, the fourth quarter of 2024 saw an increase of 27,398 people.
All other provinces also experienced population declines in the fourth quarter, except Alberta (+7,280). The population of Canada as a whole fell by 103,504.
In 2025, Ontario’s population declined by 119,070 residents, reflecting an annual decrease of 0.7 per cent. In 2024, Ontario’s population had grown by 309,404 people or 1.9 per cent.
British Columbia (-41,461) and Quebec (-9,576) also experienced sizeable population declines in 2025. Alberta (59,970) grew significantly, followed by Saskatchewan (4,412), which experienced smaller growth.
| Component | Q4 2024 | Q4 2025 | Calendar Year 2024 | Calendar Year 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural increase | 2,306 | 644 | 20,382 | 17,712 |
| Natural increase – Births | 35,318 | 35,186 | 143,687 | 145,169 |
| Natural increase – Deaths | 33,012 | 34,542 | 123,305 | 127,457 |
| Net migration | 25,092 | -55,536 | 289,022 | -136,782 |
| Migration – Net international migration | 27,174 | -53,938 | 323,097 | -122,738 |
| Migration – International migration – Immigration | 47,927 | 35,159 | 205,887 | 169,689 |
| Migration – International migration – Emigration* | 6,742 | 6,806 | 30,570 | 31,158 |
| Migration – International migration – Net change in non-permanent residents | -14,011 | -82,291 | 147,780 | -261,269 |
| Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Inflow | 58,992 | 29,617 | 386,065 | 182,360 |
| Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Outflow | 73,003 | 111,908 | 238,285 | 443,629 |
| Migration – Net interprovincial migration | -2,082 | -1,598 | -34,075 | -14,044 |
| Migration – Interprovincial migration – Inflow | 11,314 | 11,967 | 75,519 | 76,173 |
| Migration – Interprovincial migration – Outflow | 13,396 | 13,565 | 109,594 | 90,217 |
| Population Growth | 27,398 | -54,892 | 309,404 | -119,070 |
| Population Growth Rate | 1.9% | -0.7% |
Source: Statistics Canada. *Emigration refers to the net of emigration minus returning emigration.
Natural increase
There were 35,186 births in Ontario during the fourth quarter of 2025, down slightly from 35,318 in same quarter of 2024. The number of deaths increased as well, reaching 34,542 in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to 33,012 over the same period of the previous year.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 644 in the quarter, down from 2,306 in the same quarter of 2024.
International migration
There were 35,159 new immigrants to Ontario in the fourth quarter, down from 47,927 (-27%) in the same quarter of 2024. In 2025, there were 169,689 immigrants to the province, down from 205,887 in the previous year. Ontario received 43.1 per cent of all immigrants to Canada over this period, up from 42.6 per cent in the previous year.
There were 6,806 emigrants in the fourth quarter, compared to 6,742 in the same quarter of 2024.
The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario decreased by 82,291 in the fourth quarter of 2025, following declines totaling 192,989 in the previous four quarters. Since October 1, 2024, the number of non-permanent residents in Ontario declined by 275,280 or 18.6 per cent. As of January 1, 2026, there were 1,200,779 non-permanent residents living in Ontario.
The number of asylum claimants and protected persons living in the province increased by 7,109 in the fourth quarter.
Holders of work permits fell by 46,447, holders of a study permit declined by 25,158, and the number of those holding both a study and a work permit decreased by 14,215.
| Net Change by Category | Q4 2024 | Q4 2025 | Calendar Year 2024 | Calendar Year 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asylum Claimants | 15,457 | 7,109 | 67,938 | 27,120 |
| Holders of Work Permit Only | 6,908 | -46,447 | 133,073 | -89,195 |
| Holders of Study Permit Only | -23,893 | -25,158 | -51,956 | -115,509 |
| Holders of Both Work & Study Permit | -11,088 | -14,215 | -11,027 | -71,859 |
| Other | -1,395 | -3,580 | 9,752 | -11,826 |
| Total Net Change | -14,011 | -82,291 | 147,780 | -261,269 |
| Number of People as of: | January 1, 2024 | January 1, 2025 | January 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asylum Claimants | 154,697 | 222,635 | 249,755 |
| Holders of Work Permit Only | 586,628 | 719,701 | 630,506 |
| Holders of Study Permit Only | 335,622 | 283,666 | 168,157 |
| Holders of Both Work & Study Permit | 184,911 | 173,884 | 102,025 |
| Other | 52,410 | 62,162 | 50,336 |
| Total | 1,314,268 | 1,462,048 | 1,200,779 |
| Change from Previous Year | +40.7% | +11.2% | -17.9% |
Source: Statistics Canada.
Overall, there was a net international migration loss of 53,938 in the fourth quarter, down from a net gain of 27,174 in the same quarter of 2024. Net international migration is the sum of all new immigrants during the quarter, minus the number of emigrants, plus the net change in non-permanent residents.
Interprovincial migration
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 1,598 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 2,082 people in the same quarter of 2024. In 2025, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 14,044. While this net loss is above the average for the last 10 years, it is the smallest net loss recorded in the last five years.
Ontario Demographic Factsheet
| Region | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 34,339 | 36,111 | 38,240 | 40,049 | 41,262 | 41,652 |
| Ontario | 13,262 | 13,877 | 14,842 | 15,632 | 16,145 | 16,258 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 38.6 | 38.4 | 38.8 | 39.0 | 39.1 | 39.0 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 0.7 |
| Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 41,340 | 42,776 | 44,426 | 46,109 | 47,890 | 49,746 |
| Ontario | 16,232 | 16,793 | 17,649 | 18,558 | 19,528 | 20,542 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 39.3 | 39.3 | 39.7 | 40.2 | 40.8 | 41.3 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | -0.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Age group | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| 5–14 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| 15–24 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 12.5 |
| 25–44 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 27.6 | 28.8 | 29.5 | 29.6 |
| 45–64 | 28.4 | 28.1 | 26.6 | 25.2 | 24.6 | 24.4 |
| 65–74 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.4 |
| 75+ | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.5 |
| Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| 5–14 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.9 |
| 15–24 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.4 | 11.0 | 10.8 |
| 25–44 | 29.3 | 29.2 | 29.2 | 28.7 | 28.5 | 28.3 |
| 45–64 | 24.1 | 23.1 | 23.3 | 24.4 | 25.1 | 25.4 |
| 65–74 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 9.3 |
| 75+ | 8.8 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 13.2 | 13.0 |
| Age group | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 16.6 | 16.1 | 15.5 | 14.9 | 14.7 | 14.6 |
| 15–64 | 69.1 | 67.6 | 66.5 | 66.8 | 67.0 | 66.5 |
| 65+ | 14.2 | 16.3 | 18.0 | 18.3 | 18.4 | 18.9 |
| Age group | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 14.5 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.1 |
| 15–64 | 66.1 | 64.6 | 64.3 | 64.5 | 64.6 | 64.5 |
| 65+ | 19.5 | 21.7 | 22.5 | 22.6 | 22.4 | 22.4 |
| Other characteristic | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%) | 60.3 | 62.6 | 64.2 | 63.7 | 63.1 | 63.9 |
| Median age (years) | 39.8 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 39.9 | 39.6 | 39.9 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 46-65 | 51-70 | 56-75 | 58-77 | 59-78 | 60-79 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.57 | 1.52 | 1.37 | 1.22 | 1.21 | n.a. |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 84.1 | 84.4 | 84.3 | 84.5 | 85.0 | n.a. |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 79.9 | 80.4 | 79.5 | 80.1 | 80.7 | n.a. |
| Families (000s) | 3,722 | 3,818 | 4,017 | 4,166 | 4,289 | 4,327 |
| Households (000s) | 5,062 | 5,318 | 5,741 | 6,010 | 6,216 | 6,285 |
| Other characteristic | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%) | 65.4 | 69.1 | 69.0 | 68.0 | 67.0 | 67.2 |
| Median age (years) | 39.1 | 40.3 | 41.2 | 41.9 | 42.1 | 42.4 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 61-80 | 66-85 | 71-90 | 76-95 | 81-100 | 86-105 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.22 |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years) | 84.1 | 85.6 | 86.2 | 86.6 | 87.4 | 88.0 |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years) | 80.6 | 81.5 | 82.3 | 83.1 | 83.8 | 84.6 |
| Families (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Households (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Region | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 47.2 | 47.8 | 47.2 | 47.3 | 47.5 | 47.2 |
| Central | 21.6 | 21.6 | 22.1 | 22.2 | 22.1 | 22.2 |
| Eastern | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.3 |
| Southwestern | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 11.9 |
| Northeastern | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Northwestern | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Region | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 46.9 | 46.1 | 45.7 | 45.6 | 45.5 | 45.6 |
| Central | 22.4 | 22.9 | 23.1 | 23.3 | 23.3 | 23.4 |
| Eastern | 13.3 | 13.7 | 13.8 | 13.9 | 14.0 | 14.1 |
| Southwestern | 11.9 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| Northeastern | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Northwestern | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Period | Population, beginning of period | Total change | Births | Deaths | Natural increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 11,897 | 764 | 666 | 418 | 249 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 12,662 | 600 | 709 | 442 | 268 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 13,262 | 614 | 706 | 471 | 234 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 13,877 | 966 | 701 | 543 | 157 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 14,842 | 313 | 139 | 121 | 18 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 15,156 | 477 | 135 | 123 | 12 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 15,632 | 512 | 142 | 122 | 20 |
| Annual: 2024–25 | 16,145 | 113 | 145 | 125 | 20 |
| Period | Immigrants | Net emigrants | Net NPRs | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 653 | 125 | 44 | 573 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 558 | 104 | 58 | 512 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 519 | 123 | 87 | 484 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 605 | 75 | 221 | 751 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 227 | 22 | 121 | 326 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 199 | 30 | 325 | 494 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 198 | 30 | 368 | 535 |
| Annual: 2024–25 | 191 | 31 | -49 | 111 |
| Period | In | Out | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 307 | 336 | -30 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 296 | 355 | -59 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 307 | 346 | -39 |
| Five-Year: 2016–21 | 340 | 326 | 14 |
| Annual: 2021–22 | 77 | 108 | -31 |
| Annual: 2022–23 | 77 | 106 | -30 |
| Annual: 2023–24 | 69 | 112 | -43 |
| Annual: 2024–25 | 65 | 83 | -18 |
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.
Other Demographics Reports
Footnotes
- footnote[1] Back to paragraph Statistics Canada’s population estimates are based on the 2021 Census.
- footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance, except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
- footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
- footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total fertility rate and life expectancy estimates are for calendar years, and projections are for census years.
- footnote[5] Back to paragraph In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.