October to December, 2019

Introduction

About the Ontario Employment Report

The Ontario Employment Report is released four times a year and provides an assessment of the current trends and developments in the Ontario labour market. The Ontario Employment Report is a companion report to the Ontario Economic Accounts, which provides an overall assessment of the current state of the Ontario economy. All estimates in this report are based on Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey.

Methodological note

In the current issue, year-over-year change represents change between the averages in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the fourth quarter of 2019. Note that the Ontario Economic Accounts report primarily shows changes between the previous and the current quarter.

This report uses seasonally adjusted data in charts displaying data with a monthly frequency in the Overview section.

Unadjusted data is used in charts and tables showing the changes for the current quarter compared with the same quarter for the previous year. Unadjusted data is also used to calculate annual averages, year-to-date averages and 2019 fourth quarter averages.

Overview

Ontario’s labour market overview

Employment:

+232,500 net new jobs year-over-year

+180,800 full-time jobs year-over-year

Unemployment rate:

4.8% in the fourth quarter of 2019

Year-over-year, Ontario’s employment grew by 3.2% (232,500), higher than the Canadian rate of 1.9%.

Ontario’s unemployment rate was 4.8% in the fourth quarter of 2019, lower than the Canadian rate of 5.2%.

Year-over-year overview

Ontario’s labour market, 2008-2019

Between the fourth quarter of 2018 and 2019:

• full-time employment increased by 3.1% and part-time employment increased by 3.7%
• gains occurred in the private sector (+2.3%), public sector (+3.6%), and self-employment (+6.3%)
• there were significant employment gains in the services-producing sector (+3.8%), and a modest increase in the goods-producing sector (+0.8%)
• four of the five Ontario regions posted employment gains with Eastern Ontario experiencing the strongest employment growth (+7.0%)
• older workers and youth experienced above-average employment growth (+5.7% and +5.1%, respectively)
• the average hourly wage increased by 4.5%, to $28.73   

Type of Work quarterly details

Year-over-year, full-time employment increased by 3.1% and part-time employment increased by 3.7% in the fourth quarter.

Year-over-year, employment grew in all sectors (the private sector, the public sector and self-employment). The strongest growth was in self-employment (+6.3%).

Year-over-year, paid employment increased in above-average wage industries by 5.9%, while employment in below-average wage industries decreased by 0.5%.

Sector and occupation quarterly details

Employment change by industry, goods-producing industries

Year-over-year, there were significant employment gains in the services-producing sector (+3.8%) and modest employment gains in the goods-producing sector (+0.8%).

Among goods-producing industries, the employment increase was driven mostly by construction (+4.1%).  Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas industries and agriculture industries  experienced the largest growth rates among goods-producing industries (+12.2% and +12.1% respectively), while employment in utilities and manufacturing declined (-2.1%).

Employment change by industry, services-producing industries

Among services-producing industries, professional, scentific and technical services gained the most jobs and also experienced the highest rate of employment growth (+8.5%). Additionally, health care and social assistance (+6.1%) and finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (+7.2%) were the second and third industries that gained the most jobs. Employment in business, building and other support services and information, culture and recreation slightly decreased (-1.6% and -0.5% respectively).

Employment change by occupational group

Among broad occupational groups, education, law, social, community and government services occupations saw the largest increase in employment (+7.6%), while employment in natural resources, agriculture and related occupations and health occupations decreased the most (-8.3%).

Geographic region

Ontario regions

Employment change by Ontario region

Year-over-year, employment increased in four of the five Ontario regions. The rate of employment growth was highest in Eastern Ontario (+7.0%), followed by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)^{footnote 1[1]} (+3.9%), Southwestern Ontario (+2.1%) and Central Ontario (+1.1%). Employment slightly decreased in Northern Ontario (-1.6%).

Unemployment rates by Ontario region

In the fourth quarter of 2019, Eastern Ontario had the lowest unemployment rate (4.2%), while Northern Ontario had the highest unemployment rate (5.2%).

Participation rates by Ontario region

Quarterly labour force participation rates varied considerably among the economic regions. In the fourth quarter, participation rates ranged from 58.7% in Northern Ontario to 66.0% in the GTA.

Age and gender quarterly details

Employment change by age group and gender

Compared to the same quarter last year, older workers (55 years and over) and youth (15 to 24 years) experienced above-average employment growth (+5.7% and +5.1% respectively). Core-aged workers (25 to 54 years) and older workers gained the most jobs.

Unemployment rates by age group and gender

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points for males and stayed the same for females compared to a year ago. The youth unemployment rate declined by 0.4 percentage points to 10.5% and remained the highest among the three age groups. The unemployment rate for core-aged workers decreased to 4.1% and for older workers remained almost the same at 3.4% in the last quarter of 2019.

Participation rates by age group and gender

In the fourth quarter, core-aged workers had the highest participation rate at 86.5%, followed by youth at 57.7% and older workers at 39.2%. Compared to a year ago, the participation rate increased for all age groups. Compared to the last quarter of 2018, the participation rates for both females and males increased by 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively.

Education level and immigrant status quarterly details

Employment rates by education level and immigrant status (core-aged population)

In the fourth quarter of 2019, those without a high school diploma continued to have the lowest employment rate (58.0%), while university degree holders recorded the highest employment rate (87.3%), followed by postsecondary certificate and diploma holders (86.9%).

Those born in Canada recorded the highest employment rate (85.8%), while very recent immigrants continued to have the lowest employment rate (68.7%).

Unemployment rates by education level and immigrant status (core-aged population)

In the fourth quarter of 2019, university degree holders recorded the lowest unemployment rate (3.4%) among all education levels. Those without a high school diploma had the highest unemployment rate (7.9%). Year-over-year, the unemployment rate of those with a university degree and those with a postsecondary certificate or diploma decreased, while the unemployment rate for those with and without a high school diploma increased.

Year-over-year, the unemployment rate decreased for all groups by immigrant status, except for those born in Canada (+0.1 percentage points).

Participation rates by education level and immigrant status (core-aged population)

In the fourth quarter of 2019, university degree holders continued to record the highest participation rate (90.3%), while those without a high school diploma had the lowest participation rate (63.0%). Year-over-year, the participation rate for university degree holders, those with a postsecondary certificate or diploma and high school diploma holders slightly improved, but slightly decreased for those without a high school diploma.

In the fourth quarter of 2019, recent immigrants and very recent immigrants continued to have the lowest participation rate compared to established immigrants and those born in Canada. Year-over-year, the participation rate for those born in Canada increased (+1.2 percentage points) and decreased for other immigrant groups.

Wages quarterly details

Average hourly wages total, full-time and part-time employees

The average hourly wage increased in real terms^{footnote 2[2]} (i.e. after accounting for inflation) from $25.02 in 1997 to $28.34 in 2019, with the growth rate averaging 0.6% per year. Over this period, real wages grew at an annual average growth rate of 0.7% for part-time workers and 0.5% for full-time workers.

Hourly wage growth by type of work

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the average hourly wage of Ontario employees was $28.73, an increase of 4.5% from the fourth quarter of 2018.^{footnote 3[3]} Consumer Price Index inflation over the same period was 1.9%.^{footnote 4[4]}

Average hourly wage rate and wage growth by occupational group

Year-over-year, all broad occupational groups experienced growth in wages. The three broad occupational groups that experienced the highest wage growth were: art, culture, recreation and sport (+9.6%), natural and applied sciences and related (+6.7%), and management (+6.6%). 

Appendix

Overview of annual employment ten-year review

Employment by region (000)

Unemployment rate by region (%)

Total employment by CMA (000)

Greater Toronto Area

Central Ontario

Eastern Ontario

Southwestern Ontario

Northern Ontario

Overview of quarterly employment year-over-year

Employment by Region (000)

Unemployment Rate by Region (%)

Total Employment by CMA (000)

Greater Toronto Area

Central Ontario

Eastern Ontario

Southwestern Ontario

Northern Ontario

Note: All estimates in this appendix are based on Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey.