July to September, 2019

Introduction

About the Ontario Employment Report

The Ontario Employment Report is released four times a year and provides an assessment of the current trends and developments in the Ontario labour market. The Ontario Employment Report is a companion report to the Ontario Economic Accounts, which provides an overall assessment of the current state of the Ontario economy. All estimates in this report are based on Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey.

Methodological note

In the current issue, year-over-year change represents change between the averages in the third quarter of 2018 and the third quarter of 2019. Note that the Ontario Economic Accounts report primarily shows changes between the previous and the current quarter.

This report uses seasonally adjusted data in charts displaying data with a monthly frequency in the Overview section.

Unadjusted data is used in charts and tables showing the changes for the current quarter compared with the same quarter for the previous year. Unadjusted data is also used to calculate annual averages, year-to-date averages and 2019 third quarter averages.

Overview

Ontario’s labour market overview

Employment:

+219,800 net new jobs year-over-year

+169,800 full-time jobs year-over-year

Unemployment rate:

5.8% in the third quarter of 2019

Year-over-year, Ontario’s employment grew by 3.0% (219,800), higher than the Canadian rate of 2.3%.

Ontario’s unemployment rate was 5.8% in the third quarter of 2019, the same as the Canadian rate.

Year-over-year overview

Ontario’s labour market, 2008-2019

Between the third quarter of 2018 and 2019:

• employment growth was driven by increases in full-time employment (+2.8%) and part-time employment (+4.0%)
• gains were concentrated in private sector employment (+2.8%) and self-employment (+9.7%), while public sector employment slightly declined (-1.7%)
• there were significant employment gains in the services-producing sector (+3.4%), as well as solid employment gains in the goods-producing sector (+1.4%)
• three of the five Ontario regions posted employment gains with Eastern Ontario experiencing the fastest employment growth (+6.7%)
• older workers experienced above-average employment growth (+5.4%)
• the average hourly wage increased by 4.4%, to $28.45

Type of Work quarterly details

Year-over-year, full-time employment increased by 2.8% and part-time employment increased by 4.0% in the third quarter.

Year-over-year, both the private sector and self-employment saw growth, while employment in the public sector decreased. The strongest growth was in self-employment (+9.7%).

Year-over-year, paid employment increased in above-average wage industries by 3.6%, while employment in below-average wage industries increased by 0.1%.

Sector and occupation quarterly details

Employment change by industry, goods-producing industries

Year-over-year, there were significant employment gains in the services-producing sector (+3.4%), as well as minor employment gains in the goods-producing sector (+1.4%).

Among goods-producing industries, the employment increase was driven mostly by construction (+3.7%).  Agriculture experienced the largest growth rate among goods-producing industries (+8.5%), while employment in utilities and in forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas declined.

Employment change by industry, services-producing industries

Among services-producing industries, health care and social assistance gained the most jobs, while professional, scientific and technical services experienced the highest rate of employment growth (+9.3%). Information, culture and recreation had the largest decline in employment (-3.6%).

Employment change by occupational group

Among broad occupational groups, management occupations saw the largest increase in employment, while employment in manufacturing and utilities occupations declined the most.

Geographic region

Ontario regions

Employment change by Ontario region

Year-over-year, employment increased in three of the five Ontario regions. The rate of employment growth was highest in Eastern Ontario (+6.7%), followed by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) ^{footnote 1[1]} (+4.8%) and Central Ontario (+0.7%). Employment declined in Southwestern Ontario (-1.5%) and Northern Ontario (-2.9%).

Unemployment rates by Ontario region

In the third quarter of 2019, both Southwestern Ontario and the GTA had the highest unemployment rate (6.2%), while Eastern Ontario had the lowest unemployment rate (5.0%).

Participation rates by Ontario region

Quarterly labour force participation rates varied considerably among the economic regions. In the third quarter, participation rates ranged from 60.1% in Northern Ontario to 67.6% in the GTA.

Age and gender quarterly details

Employment change by age group and gender

Compared to the same quarter last year, core-aged workers (25 to 54 years) gained the most jobs, followed by older workers (55 years and over) and youth (15 to 24 years). Older workers experienced above-average employment growth (+5.4%).

Unemployment rates by age group and gender

Compared to a year ago, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points for females and stayed the same for males. In the third quarter, the unemployment rate of youth was 12.7%, the highest among the three age groups. Compared to a year ago, the unemployment rate decreased for core-aged workers, increased for youth and remained the same for older workers.

Participation rates by age group and gender

In the third quarter, core-aged workers had the highest participation rate at 86.1%, followed by youth at 66.6% and older workers at 38.7%. Compared to a year ago, the participation rate increased for all age groups. The participation rates for males increased compared to a year ago (+1.2 percentage point) and slightly decreased for females (-0.1 percentage points).

Education level and immigrant status quarterly details

Employment rates by education level and immigrant status (core-aged population)

In the third quarter of 2019, those without a high school diploma continued to hold the lowest employment rate (54.3%), while postsecondary certificate and diploma degree holders recorded the highest employment rate (86.8%), followed by university degree holders (85.8%). Education level refers to the highest level of schooling completed.

Those born in Canada recorded the highest employment rate (84.9%), while very recent immigrants continued to have the lowest employment rate (66.7%) among groups by immigrant status.

Unemployment rates by education level and immigrant status (core-aged population)

In the third quarter of 2019, postsecondary certificate and diploma holders recorded the lowest unemployment rate (3.7%) among all education levels. Those without a high school diploma had the highest unemployment rate (8.4%). The unemployment rate of those with a university degree and those with a post-secondary certificate or diploma decreased, year-over-year, while the unemployment rates for those without high school diploma increased. High school diploma holders’ unemployment rate remained relatively unchanged.

Year-over-year, the unemployment rates decreased for all groups by immigrant status, except for recent immigrants.

Participation rates by education level and immigrant status (core-aged population)

In the third quarter of 2019, university degree holders and those with a postsecondary certificate or diploma continued to record the highest participation rates (90.2%), while those without a high school diploma had the lowest participation rate (59.2%). Year-over-year, participation rates for university degree holders and those with a postsecondary certificate or diploma slightly improved, but slightly decreased for those with and without a high school diploma.

In the third quarter of 2019, recent immigrants and very recent immigrants continued to have the lowest participation rates compared to established immigrants and those born in Canada. Year-over-year, participation rate for those born in Canada increased (+1.4 percentage points) and decreased for other immigrant groups.

Wages quarterly details

Average hourly wages total, full-time and part-time employees

Over the last two decades, the average hourly wage increased in real terms ^{footnote 2[2]} (i.e. after accounting for inflation) from $24.56 to $27.36, with the growth rate averaging 0.5% per year. Over this period, real wages grew at an average growth rate of 0.7% for part-time workers and 0.5% for full-time workers.

Hourly wage growth by type of work

In the third quarter of 2019, the average hourly wage of Ontario employees was $28.45, an increase of 4.4% from the third quarter of 2018. ^{footnote 3[3]} Consumer Price Index inflation over the same period was 1.9%. ^{footnote 4[4]}

Average hourly wage rate and wage growth by occupational group

The three broad occupational groups that experienced the highest wage growth were: art, culture, recreation and sport (+9.8%), business, finance and administration (+6.9%), and natural and applied sciences and related (+4.9%). Two broad occupational groups experienced a decline in wages: health (-1.6%) and education, law, social, community and government (-0.8%).

Appendix

Overview of annual employment ten-year review

Employment by region (000)

Unemployment rate by region (%)

Total employment by CMA (000)

Greater Toronto Area

Central Ontario

Eastern Ontario

Southwestern Ontario

Northern Ontario

Overview of quarterly employment year-over-year

Employment by Region (000)

Unemployment Rate by Region (%)

Total Employment by CMA (000)

Greater Toronto Area

Central Ontario

Eastern Ontario

Southwestern Ontario

Northern Ontario

Note: All estimates in this appendix are based on Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey.